Exclusive OO Gauge Class 89 produced by Accurascale

[Sir TophamHatt]

54 minutes ago, mdvle said:

Given tooling a loco is in the $100,000 to $200,000 range (based on comments from a US manufacturer), I think it is to be expected as companies/people explore more niche models that they will want to re-assurance that the market exists.

 

 

 

I mean, I personally think it would succeed but I wouldn't claim that it is obvious and if I had the money it wouldn't be the first choice to risk that money on.

 

Again from the US, a manufacturer tooled 2 "obvious" models based on opinion and claims of demand online (one freight car in HO, one diesel in N)  and one lost money, and other other either lost money or barely covered costs.

But it has been said already: converting EOI into sales is another matter.
They could find that 50% of the EOI disappear, or could find that sales outstrip what's available by hundreds of units.

Someone could fill in the EOI today then lose their job by the end of the month.  Or someone could get a big promotion and want all the liveries.  At the end of the day it's a risk for any seller.  But they've chosen their manufacturer well, which I have no doubt (it's already been said) will be of such a high quality that it's likely to please everyone who would seriously want to buy it.

 

You've said it yourself - you think it would succeed.  So would I.  So would many people in this forum, let alone those out of it.  I've said why I think it would sell - it's a rare loco, one of a kind.  That makes it much more unique than just another 91.

 

You can't compare what you've tried to though - one is a freight wagon and the other N gauge.  Neither are a rare, one of a kind loco that is on a popular line (from a real world point of view), that has limited liveries but has (over the years) been a loco that has been mentioned many times as "missing".  You've said that expressions of interest didn't work out for that seller, perhaps they won't for Rails, in which case a waste of time anyway.  I half understand them, but not sure of the integrity of the data you get from them for making commercial decisions.

 

With more and more overhead locos coming to the market... Hornby's 86, 87, 91 and Accurascale's 92...  if Rails don't make the 89, someone else will.
I am interested - just like I'm interested in buying about 30 different locos.  But am I serious about purchasing?  I don't know, hence it's a no from me.  It's not fair for me to say I'm interested when I have other locos I want before this one.

 

 

That's all I am saying:  That I think EOI aren't a reliable source to make £100,000 business decisions and that I think it will be profitable / worth doing / successful for Rails.

[TomScrut]

1 hour ago, Sir TophamHatt said:

It's a bit of a shame some are asking for "expressions of interest" instead of just getting on and making it.

 

Well I think it's called market research....

 

1 hour ago, Sir TophamHatt said:

I'm interested but not enough to feel I should fill in an expression of interest.

 

Well don't, and don't complain if it never gets made. If you're not interested then they won't want you filling it in as it gives them false information. I don't see why somebody would want something enough to be willing to spend £170 on it but wouldn't be willing to spend 2 minutes filling a form in to say you'd probably have one.

 

1 hour ago, Sir TophamHatt said:

But I'd say it's fairly obvious it will be popular.

 

If it was that obvious it would have been made already IMO.

 

1 hour ago, Sir TophamHatt said:

Yes.
A truly unique loco, one of a kind... RARE....

 

Which basically limits it's interest to those doing ECML/WCML late 80s, ECML early 90s, ECML circa 2000, and then nowadays as a charter loco. Dates off the top of my head so probably not 100% accurate.

 

OTOH if Falcon, Kestrel, Lion and DP2 can be tooled (as they are) then I don't see why this wouldn't generate the interest.

[TomScrut]

5 minutes ago, Sir TophamHatt said:

I've said why I think it would sell - it's a rare loco, one of a kind.  That makes it much more unique than just another 91

 

But the 91 ran for a far longer time so is a lot bigger market. And there is more than one.

 

5 minutes ago, Sir TophamHatt said:

That's all I am saying:  That I think EOI aren't a reliable source to make £100,000 business decisions and that I think it will be profitable / worth doing / successful for Rails.

 

There is no hard and fast way of knowing is there? What information would you say is more reliable than people actually having to say "yes I would be interested"?

 

Any information people can give allows a more informed decision to be made, including what liveries.

 

Rails have 4 liveries on their lists, they may find most people are only interested in one or two. I'd hazard a guess one of the GNER ones will be more popular than the other, and chances are that if they cross reference the numbers that hardly anyone will be wanting both GNERs, and they'd also probably expect that if one was not available the other would be bought by those who chose the less popular one anyway. So I think I all likelihood the information would provide which one is more popular and that it's likely to not impact sales dropping the other.

[TravisM]

As I've said before, with the money recently spent on it, it's recent trip to Toton's paint facility makes me wonder if it's not heading back to the mainline, maybe under the umbrella of LSL at Crewe.  If it did, then I'm sure interest will rapidly climb.

[TomScrut]

Just now, jools1959 said:

As I've said before, with the money recently spent on it, it's recent trip to Toton's paint facility makes me wonder if it's not heading back to the mainline, maybe under the umbrella of LSL at Crewe.  If it did, then I'm sure interest will rapidly climb.

 

Definitely, and they maybe ought to consider (now it is liveried up) putting the new 2020 state as an option too, as far as I am aware there are subtleties differentiating it from the original IC Swallow? It also doesn't have the cables on the front anymore IIRC

[Luke Piewalker]

It's not a secret that it's heading back to the mainline, that's always been the plan. It's going to Soho depot for various checks and low speed testing under it's own power then if all is well needs a data recorder and GSM-R installed before it would potentially be allowed on the mainline.

[mdvle]

2 hours ago, TomScrut said:

OTOH if Falcon, Kestrel, Lion and DP2 can be tooled (as they are) then I don't see why this wouldn't generate the interest.

 

As I said in the Class 88 thread, they all benefited from being done when China was cheaper and the resulting product in the UK was cheaper so more likely to have impulse purchasing.

 

And of course they are all not overhead-electric, and thus are inherently more popular.

 

2 hours ago, Sir TophamHatt said:

You've said it yourself - you think it would succeed.  So would I. 

 

But I also said I wouldn't risk my own money, which sort of tempers my belief a bit.

 

2 hours ago, Sir TophamHatt said:

So would many people in this forum, let alone those out of it.  I've said why I think it would sell - it's a rare loco, one of a kind.  That makes it much more unique than just another 91.

 

It can be a wash though - most people (unless they are specifically collecting) are likely to only buy 1 Class 89 - but a person is more likely to have multiple Class 91's on a layout.

 

2 hours ago, Sir TophamHatt said:

You can't compare what you've tried to though - one is a freight wagon and the other N gauge.  Neither are a rare, one of a kind loco that is on a popular line (from a real world point of view), that has limited liveries but has (over the years) been a loco that has been mentioned many times as "missing".  You've said that expressions of interest didn't work out for that seller

 

Read what I said - they didn't use EOI they simply made the models because they were "obvious" and the prototypes were liked and common and the calls for a model on the online forums frequent.

 

Yet all those people publicly calling for a model in the end didn't go out and spend their money on it, demonstrating that online forums can be a poor way to judge demand.

 

2 hours ago, Sir TophamHatt said:

 if Rails don't make the 89, someone else will.

 

An interesting statement, makes one wonder.

 

2 hours ago, Sir TophamHatt said:

I am interested - just like I'm interested in buying about 30 different locos.  But am I serious about purchasing?  I don't know, hence it's a no from me.  It's not fair for me to say I'm interested when I have other locos I want before this one.

 

But you are demonstrating the problem - there are a lot of people like you who are quite happy to post online saying they would be X of a model if only someone would make it, with no intention of following through with the actual purchase.

 

I give you credit for being honest, and not filling out the EOI - but the reason for doing the EOI is that while obviously not every EOI made is guaranteed to be a sale that extra effort to make the EOI weeds out a lot of the online noise.

 

[TravisM]

Slightly off topic but 89001 is departing Barrow Hill on Tuesday, heading to Soho depot for high voltage electrical testing (OHLE?).  Watch this space!

[Patriot87003]

7 hours ago, jools1959 said:

Slightly off topic but 89001 is departing Barrow Hill on Tuesday, heading to Soho depot for high voltage electrical testing (OHLE?).  Watch this space!

Correct, and the train path is provisionally booked in Realtime Trains ...

 

https://www.realtimetrains.co.uk/train/R05261/2020-10-27/detailed

[Markwj]

I had hoped that we would have known by now if this was going ahead or not.

I have no evidence of this but wonder if an announcement is expected from Hornby for this considering their interest and production of the class 91 as the 89 would be a good companion for this especially if the mark 4 coaches and dvt are to follow.

mark

[TravisM]

Having had a quick look through Flickr as I wasn't sure if it ran with Mk4 stock (it did), I have to admit that it really looks the part in GNER blue.  During the GNER tenure, not only did you have the 89, but 91's, the odd 90, HST's as well as the NoL Eurostar sets, so if you modelled the ECML south of Doncaster, you had a large selection of GNER trains to choose from.

Edited October 25, 2020 by jools1959

[PaulRhB]

19 hours ago, Sir TophamHatt said:

That I think EOI aren't a reliable source to make £100,000 business decisions and that I think it will be profitable / worth doing / successful for Rails.

But the point is Rails are making the decision and they have a hell of a lot more experience, than the majority commenting on it, in this business. Despite what we think if they don’t think it will then it won’t happen.
I’ve put in my Eoi to show support, I’m not artificially inflating it by voting for multiple ones either, because they asked and it’s my polite response to their question.

Hattons have cancelled the crane because of lack of orders so it’s not just Rails using this system so at least two major shops believe it works. See how many in that thread are now saying they want one but didn’t put in an Eoi !  
 

Edited October 25, 2020 by PaulRhB

[classy52]

1 hour ago, PaulRhB said:

Hattons have cancelled the crane because of lack of orders so it’s not just Rails using this system so at least two major shops believe it works. See how many in that thread are now saying they want one but didn’t put in an Eoi !  
 

 

You do realize the Hattons Crane was not based on EOI or reaching a minimum amount of pre-orders thus your comparison is completely irrelevant.

[PaulRhB]

1 hour ago, classy52 said:

 

You do realize the Hattons Crane was not based on EOI or reaching a minimum amount of pre-orders thus your comparison is completely irrelevant.

No it was based on orders which in their case are almost exactly the same as an Eoi as you don’t pay a deposit with Hattons and can cancel at anytime  They effectively used it like an Eoi. 
Their words on the crane 

“Due to lower sales than projected, we have made the difficult decision to suspend the OO gauge Plasser”

That looks like it didn’t meet, in your words, a minimum amount of pre orders?

 

Edited October 25, 2020 by PaulRhB

[classy52]

1 hour ago, PaulRhB said:

No it was based on orders which in their case are almost exactly the same as an Eoi as you don’t pay a deposit with Hattons and can cancel at anytime  They effectively used it like an Eoi. 
Their words on the crane 

“Due to lower sales than projected, we have made the difficult decision to suspend the OO gauge Plasser”

That looks like it didn’t meet, in your words, a minimum amount of pre orders?

 

 

Yes that's all well & good for Hattons to say that at the end but they made no communication whatsoever to say their project would be based on pre-orders or EOI hence why people like me & countless others didn't pre-order and were waiting until release to purchase.

Thus you cannot say to anyone 'serves you right the model is cancelled' for not pre-ordering, that doesn't make any sense whereas this Class 89 Project is explicitly based on whether they get enough EOI from the beginning thus entirely two different scenarios hence why I said you cannot compare.

Edited October 25, 2020 by classy52

[PaulRhB]

20 minutes ago, classy52 said:

Thus you cannot say to anyone 'serves you right the model is cancelled' for not pre-ordering,

I didn’t I just pointed out a lot hadn’t as the thread demonstrates.
“See how many in that thread are now saying they want one but didn’t put in an Eoi !  ”

At no point did I poke fun or derision at those now asking for the pre orders to be reopened!

I was pointing out a no deposit pre order and expression of interest are almost exactly the same.
People made an assumption that they would produce it anyway. It’s not the first item to be cancelled because of insufficient orders, the bigger manufacturers have done it too. Pre orders from us and shops have always driven the decision whether you knew about it or not  

 

Edited October 25, 2020 by PaulRhB

[TravisM]

I think Hatton’s decision to “suspend” their crane model is neither down to pre-orders or EOI’s but rather market forces and the ongoing pandemic where people would make hard decisions of their outgoing income.

 

People have failed to note that it and the N gauge Garrett are suspended, not cancelled, so hopefully as the world finds it’s feet again, those projects will come to the fore again.

[PaulRhB]

Anyway if we take the Hattons suspension as a mild warning it’s worth putting in an expression of interest as it may help Rails decide with the 89 on the go / no go and the specifications  

[classy52]

1 minute ago, PaulRhB said:

I didn’t I just pointed out a lot hadn’t as the thread demonstrates. I was pointing out a no deposit pre order and expression of interest are almost exactly the same. 
People made an assumption that they would produce it anyway. It’s not the first item to be cancelled because of insufficient orders, the bigger manufacturers have done it too. Pre orders from us and shops have always driven the decision whether you knew about it or not  

 

But you're still not getting it.

Hattons announced they were producing the YOB Plasser and were taking pre-orders and said nothing else thus as a customer I have 1 of 2 decisions to make and that is either pre-order or purchase the product when its released and far as me & everyone is concerned the YOB Plasser is being made as a general release product but going by your logic we now have to pre-order no matter what the retailer/manufacturer says or doesn't say if we want that product, again that doesn't make any sense unless this is now the new norm but we are supposed to second guess everyone now???

So I better go over to Accurascale, Revolution, Cavelex, Dapol, Hornby, Heljan & Bachmann and pre-order everything I may or may not want because if I and a thousand others don't pre-order then it won't get made???

[PaulRhB]

1 minute ago, classy52 said:

I better go over to Accurascale, Revolution, Cavelex, Dapol, Hornby, Heljan & Bachmann and pre-order everything I may or may not want because if I and a thousand others don't pre-order then it won't get made???

No you’re making huge jumps of assumption again, you only need express an interest or or order if you want to. As I originally said

 

3 hours ago, PaulRhB said:

But the point is Rails are making the decision and they have a hell of a lot more experience, than the majority commenting on it, in this business. Despite what we think if they don’t think it will then it won’t happen.

All you are doing is providing them with data, in the way they choose, to make their decision. 
If you choose not to provide an interest Eoi or per order that’s up to you. Rails have asked for it outright, Hattons did it by accepting pre orders but both were looking for the same data at the end of the day. It’s always been done in various ways in the trade by shops pre orders but with more niche products and the internet an exclusive product can access the customer directly, the end result is the same. 

[classy52]

1 minute ago, PaulRhB said:

No you’re making huge jumps of assumption again, you only need express an interest or or order if you want to. As I originally said

 

All you are doing is providing them with data, in the way they choose, to make their decision. 
If you choose not to provide an interest Eoi or per order that’s up to you. Rails have asked for it outright, Hattons did it by accepting pre orders but both were looking for the same data at the end of the day. It’s always been done in various ways in the trade by shops pre orders but with more niche products and the internet an exclusive product can access the customer directly, the end result is the same. 

 

You're still not getting it.

 

Ok one last time.

1. Hattons YOB Plasser was not an EOI or Pre-order minimum dependent Project thus advertised as a general release (no EOI or pre-order bubble or crowd-funded) product but you can pre-order if you choose to because hell it may sell out and you miss out, or it doesn't so you can still by at release or anytime after until stocks run out.

2. Rails/Accurascale Class 89 is EOI dependent Project before any actual pre-orders are taken which I have completed personally thus pretty clear that if EOI doesn't meet the target then it doesn't go ahead, if it does then pre-orders are taken and then if the pre-order target isn't met then it still doesn't go ahead.

 

Both are completely and utterly different scenarios and it is you making the assumptions that if you don't pre-order then products make get cancelled even though they are not communicated as dependent on pre-orders.

Hattons made the mistake of not communicating to customers the YOB Plasser was dependent on pre-orders and reaching a minimum goal to go ahead and if they had done that then yes I would have pre-ordered two Balfour Beatty cranes, they made the mistake not me or anyone else and we now cannot assume that if someone wants to a release a new product we have to rush over and pre-order unless they clearly state this as Rails/Accurascale have done with the Class 89.

[PaulRhB]

Ok whatever you want  to you they’re different to me they are the same thing from personal experience in the industry years ago and friends involved in it more recently. I didn’t blame anyone I just pointed out that it helps them make a decision. 
 

Going back to this thread as Rails have said they are still discussing it, it’s worth getting your Eoi in for the 89 to help them decide if and if so which are viable  

 

[classy52]

29 minutes ago, PaulRhB said:

Ok whatever you want  to you they’re different to me they are the same thing from personal experience in the industry years ago and friends involved in it more recently. I didn’t blame anyone I just pointed out that it helps them make a decision. 
 

Going back to this thread as Rails have said they are still discussing it, it’s worth getting your Eoi in for the 89 to help them decide if and if so which are viable  

 

 

The same thing, really???...just admit that both Hattons YOB Plasser & Rails/Accurascale Class 89 scenarios are not the same thing.

Now back to this thread and as stated I made my EOI (because I was instructed to do so) and hope they go ahead with pre-orders (when instructed to do so) and then beyond to actual release (after minimum pre-orders are reached based on previous clear instructions).

[Roy Langridge]

Lordy, just let it go. The two of you will never agree and this is getting boring.

 

As for Sir TophamHatt’s view that this is a no-brainer, I would have tended to agree with him, however, given there has been no indication that the project is a go after 5 months, perhaps there is not the interest that was expected. 
 

Roy

[TomScrut]

1 hour ago, classy52 said:

The same thing, really???...just admit that both Hattons YOB Plasser & Rails/Accurascale Class 89 scenarios are not the same thing.

 

I think that Hattons used pre orders as their EOI without explicitly saying so. If they had they'd maybe have had a different outcome.

 

In the same way as here, that plenty of people might fill in an EOI but not order until they had seen further than CADs (which is as far as the Plasser got AFAIK).

 

I can see both sides to your arguments really, but (as I have said in the thread for the Plasser) it doesn't make much sense what has happened IMO.

 

Also as I said in that thread but it's relevant to here as I will expect IF this goes ahead, there will be waves of orders at particular milestones:

 

Formal announcement/opening of order books

CADs shown

Tooling samples shown

Livery samples shown

Production samples shown

Reviews in

Product release

 

Each one of these stages will get people on the bandwagon so in my opinion judging order books by stage 2 (unless experience shows which stages generate what and they have extrapolated) seems a bit absurd.

 

But the relevance to this is that most of the people putting an order in at all the pre release stages will likely have filled the EOI in so Rails can reasonably expect the demand assuming the product is to an acceptable level. And that I think is why the situation is slightly different, depending on their knowledge levels around at what stage the orders come in.