Pubs re-opening

[Joseph_Pestell]

5 minutes ago, monkeysarefun said:

Pubs have reopened here for dining in, limit of 10 customers at a time makes it not really  viable for many of them so they stay shut, or only open for dinner.

This seems rather typical of the muddled, arbitrary actions of Govt in response to CoViD-19. 10 customers with no consideration of how big the premises is, how people circulate within the building, how many are in groups from the same household, etc. It's just not thought through.

 

Some venues will have the seating crammed in to a maximum. Others will have the seating spread around more already. In our case (an old building), the seating is arranged such that there is a lot of distance already between the seating areas. I could certainly have four groups of four "socially isolated" in the bar and probably six more such groups in the restaurant area. I would certainly not find it viable to reopen for a maximum of 10.

 

How we go about safely serving people, I don't yet have worked out. How do two members of staff work together behind the bar?

 

[Jonboy]

I also wonder how some of these pub will get full barrels back out their cellars to dispose of in bulk as well. My uncle lost a finger years ago when one slipped on the “slide” and it was caught in one of the holes in the rim....

[rockershovel]

Well, quite. Look at the continuous blare of non-information in the media, most of which can be summarised as “virtually anything MIGHT happen”. 

 

The “ten customers” thing is interesting, though. Something similar is circulating around the motorsport world, the prospect of holding “small, well-managed” meetings involving up to ten participants, plus one mechanic per participant, and “social distancing” observed. Of course, this is nonsense; economically unviable, and how can you stage “socially distanced” motor sport? How do you get this past your insurers, who are terrified of a “class action” from someone claiming to have been infected? 

 

[Barry O]

The major pub  trade organisations have been asked some space relTed questions regarding how many pubs can reopen. These questions are being answered. Only netherspoons will open all their pubs, others may be able to open about 30% of their pubs (mainly using outside areas to space people out. There is no "one size fits all" in this one.

Baz

[rockershovel]

48 minutes ago, Joseph_Pestell said:

This seems rather typical of the muddled, arbitrary actions of Govt in response to CoViD-19. 10 customers with no consideration of how big the premises is, how people circulate within the building, how many are in groups from the same household, etc. It's just not thought through.

 

Some venues will have the seating crammed in to a maximum. Others will have the seating spread around more already. In our case (an old building), the seating is arranged such that there is a lot of distance already between the seating areas. I could certainly have four groups of four "socially isolated" in the bar and probably six more such groups in the restaurant area. I would certainly not find it viable to reopen for a maximum of 10.

 

How we go about safely serving people, I don't yet have worked out. How do two members of staff work together behind the bar?

 

 

Really? How many of your bookings comprising more than one person, consist of persons from the same households? 

[Joseph_Pestell]

6 minutes ago, rockershovel said:

 

Really? How many of your bookings comprising more than one person, consist of persons from the same households? 

 

I can only go from my experience as a customer. When I was still living with my wife, most of our excursions to the pub would involve a group of 2 from the same household. For many, it would be a group of four (two adults, two children). 

As your post indicates, some of our trips to the pub would be to meet friends or relatives from other households which would not be permissible under current regulations in Great Britain.

 

[Joseph_Pestell]

14 minutes ago, Barry O said:

The major pub  trade organisations have been asked some space relTed questions regarding how many pubs can reopen. These questions are being answered. Only netherspoons will open all their pubs, others may be able to open about 30% of their pubs (mainly using outside areas to space people out. There is no "one size fits all" in this one.

Baz

 

Absolutely right about the "one size fits all". I'm not so convinced that "these questions are being answered".

 

The "known unknown" is whether we stick with 2 metres as the measure of social distancing. WHO recommends one metre and that would be a whole lot more workable in a pub context.

[Barry O]

From my source both 2m and 1m have been looked at and are being responded to by the trade organisations.

Baz

[rockershovel]

Witherspoons’ envisaged format revolves around table service, so the bar staff only operate the pumps and optics and there are few, or no customers at the bar. That’s pretty much how they operate anyway. Quite a lot of their premises are more-or-less subdivided already, with long opening frontages. 

 

Anywhere with a sufficient outside space has an answer, more or less. 

 

Our requirements far exceed WHO guidelines in a number of respects; but if course, they omit large, important areas of action which, from results elsewhere, are clearly necessary. 

 

There is also the matter of customers being expected to queue outside for indeterminate periods. 

 

I don't doubt that there will be a huge collapse in the pub and restaurant trade, with hugely reduced levels of business. Pubcos will simply dump property into the market. Trade will stabilise around the numbers of people willing to tolerate resulting conditions. 

[Joseph_Pestell]

14 minutes ago, rockershovel said:

Witherspoons’ envisaged format revolves around table service, so the bar staff only operate the pumps and optics and there are few, or no customers at the bar. That’s pretty much how they operate anyway. Quite a lot of their premises are more-or-less subdivided already, with long opening frontages. 

 

Anywhere with a sufficient outside space has an answer, more or less. 

 

Our requirements far exceed WHO guidelines in a number of respects; but if course, they omit large, important areas of action which, from results elsewhere, are clearly necessary. 

 

There is also the matter of customers being expected to queue outside for indeterminate periods. 

 

I don't doubt that there will be a huge collapse in the pub and restaurant trade, with hugely reduced levels of business. Pubcos will simply dump property into the market. Trade will stabilise around the numbers of people willing to tolerate resulting conditions. 

 

Yes. But how does the Weatherspoons' "table service" work? That surely involves staff getting close to the sitting customers. Perhaps staff could deliver the beer to a table not being used for customers and the customers collect the beer from there??? I could probably do something similar, putting a "collection table" where the pool table would be normally. Weatherspoons' already had an app for people to put in their orders while still sitting at their tables.

 

I am not very British about queues. I absolutely hate them. Particularly frustrating to queue outside the supermarket and then find no measures inside to keep people apart.

 

You are absolutely right to highlight pubco's as the big issue here. They do not all follow the same business model in terms of beer supply to their tenants and that will have an impact. But what all the pubco's do have in common is balance sheets with humungous levels of debt from having originally overpaid to buy the pubs. So they are in no position financially to support their tenants to survive the very difficult months ahead of us. So many of those pubs, that were already struggling, will close and there will be a rush to convert yet more pubs to become housing or convenience stores.

[Mike Bellamy]

 

Marstons and Carlsberg must see a future in brewing as they are to merge - or is it a case of being taken over to survive . . . .?

 

https://www.goodbeerhunting.com/sightlines/5/23/marstons-gets-debt-relief-carlsberg-gains-taplines

[TheQ]

There is only one true pub I know of within 10 miles of me, all the others are restaurants that serve beer. The two closest are at the gastro end of the market and at £58 per person for Sunday lunch I won't be visiting them. 

 

The village I most visit,  has 3 pubs on the river, one had just been vacated before the virus arrived. So is still vacant,  one is a chain pub/ hotel,  the other is a mass market eatery. 

 

I think they all will survive because of the heavy business in the summer,  the only one I would use these days is the vacant one. The nearest to the sailing club actually owns the sailing club land having had as one of the founders, the owner of the brewery.  The club often used to decant over there,  but after several changes of hands it's not friendly anymore so they lose the summer and more importantly the  winter business. 

[rockershovel]

36 minutes ago, Joseph_Pestell said:

 

Yes. But how does the Weatherspoons' "table service" work? That surely involves staff getting close to the sitting customers. Perhaps staff could deliver the beer to a table not being used for customers and the customers collect the beer from there??? I could probably do something similar, putting a "collection table" where the pool table would be normally. Weatherspoons' already had an app for people to put in their orders while still sitting at their tables.

 

I am not very British about queues. I absolutely hate them. Particularly frustrating to queue outside the supermarket and then find no measures inside to keep people apart.

 

You are absolutely right to highlight pubco's as the big issue here. They do not all follow the same business model in terms of beer supply to their tenants and that will have an impact. But what all the pubco's do have in common is balance sheets with humungous levels of debt from having originally overpaid to buy the pubs. So they are in no position financially to support their tenants to survive the very difficult months ahead of us. So many of those pubs, that were already struggling, will close and there will be a rush to convert yet more pubs to become housing or convenience stores.

 

Well, yes. I fully expect a massive collapse in “leisure businesses” underpinned by high debt levels, with widespread conversion of debt to equity at market rates, to unwind the unsustainable situation. I say “at market rates” because the increasingly common sight of pubs for let, without takers, indicates that unrealistic expectations are common and only a complete collapse in the sector will produce the inevitable result. Couldn’t resist this one...

 

https://www.findmypub.com/properties/view/12492

 

I quite expect businesses like coffee and sandwich outlets to follow; I fully expect there to be only two or three major players, within twelve months. 

 

Lower tiers of professional sport will undoubtedly follow. 

 

 

Edited May 24, 2020 by rockershovel

[Joseph_Pestell]

16 minutes ago, rockershovel said:

 

Well, yes. I fully expect a massive collapse in “leisure businesses” underpinned by high debt levels, with widespread conversion of debt to equity at market rates, to unwind the unsustainable situation. I say “at market rates” because the increasingly common sight of pubs for let, without takers, indicates that unrealistic expectations are common and only a complete collapse in the sector will produce the inevitable result. Couldn’t resist this one...

 

https://www.findmypub.com/properties/view/12492

 

I quite expect businesses like coffee and sandwich outlets to follow; I fully expect there to be only two or three major players, within twelve months. 

 

Lower tiers of professional sport will undoubtedly follow. 

 

 

 

An unfortunate choice of name for that pub!

 

I think that many coffee/sandwich bars will be OK. They do a lot of takeaway and many will have landlords who can afford to support them rather than be left with an empty premises. They are also usually in a better position than many pubs with regard to business rates.

 

The business model for much of professional sport was not really viable before. Perhaps this current crisis will be good for them in the long term as it will force reforms that should have been carried out long ago.

[rockershovel]

10 minutes ago, Joseph_Pestell said:

 

An unfortunate choice of name for that pub!

 

I think that many coffee/sandwich bars will be OK. They do a lot of takeaway and many will have landlords who can afford to support them rather than be left with an empty premises. They are also usually in a better position than many pubs with regard to business rates.

 

The business model for much of professional sport was not really viable before. Perhaps this current crisis will be good for them in the long term as it will force reforms that should have been carried out long ago.

 

I don’t share your optimism about sandwich and coffee outlets. Most of the ones around here are in arcade or shopping centre type locations, the sort of landlord that doesn’t have a great reputation for supporting tenants. They also depend heavily on either passing trade from shopping centres and/or commuting office workers, and I think the numbers of THOSE will be greatly reduced. 

 

 

[Joseph_Pestell]

10 minutes ago, rockershovel said:

 

I don’t share your optimism about sandwich and coffee outlets. Most of the ones around here are in arcade or shopping centre type locations, the sort of landlord that doesn’t have a great reputation for supporting tenants. They also depend heavily on either passing trade from shopping centres and/or commuting office workers, and I think the numbers of THOSE will be greatly reduced. 

 

 

This is certainly not a good time to be the landlord of any commercial premises other than supermarkets. 

 

But given three choices:

- support your tenant by allowing reduced rent / rent holiday and hope for an upturn ;

- close down the shop and pay business rates yourself;

- sell the property for way less than its current book value, thereby breaching your loan covenant with the bank.

 

Which is the best option?

[rockershovel]

Just now, Joseph_Pestell said:

This is certainly not a good time to be the landlord of any commercial premises other than supermarkets. 

 

But given three choices:

- support your tenant by allowing reduced rent / rent holiday and hope for an upturn ;

- close down the shop and pay business rates yourself;

- sell the property for way less than its current book value, thereby breaching your loan covenant with the bank.

 

Which is the best option?

 

Close the premises, on the evidence. Property companies don’t “do” flexible rents. 

[BlackRat]

As someone who has had to carry on regardless with work, public contact, no PPE etc I'm looking forward to being able to go and have a pint or three.

 

It hasn't made a difference to me, apart from restricting what I can do socially.

 

Funny how that doesn't apply when it comes to essential work.

[Rivercider]

I like going to pubs, of all kinds including those I would not take Mrs Rivercider to.

My experience of Wetherspoons near me is that most are pretty congested inside, and most have very little outside space.

I enjoy visiting a pub on impulse, the idea of having to book a slot/table, or ordering drinks via an app is something that would put me off going. There are a number of pubs near here with large outside areas and beer gardens and I guess they might be more able to come to some workable arrangement,

 

cheers 

[APOLLO]

My last night out was to the Wigan Beer festival (held at the same venue as the now cancelled model railway exhibition) a couple of weeks before lockdown. We visited the White Swan and Railway pub right opposite Wigan North Western station - only reopened a week earlier after a very expensive and really nice revamp. I feel a bit sorry for the owners there.

 

My local spoons is one of the better (and bigger) ones, a 1930's art deco hotel. I used to meet a couple of mates there every few weeks for a pint and a bite. Spoons food is OK for such meetings - a curry or fish and chips - alas now no more for a while.

 

It will be a problem re opening many pubs for the many reasons outlined above, ans sadly even here in Wigan some which were struggling before lockdown may never reopen.

 

Wigan being Wigan, Fridays and Saturdays many pubs are rammed full - and I expect chaos when they do reopen. Social distancing / limited numbers - just wont work, as the song goes it will be "All or Nothing".

 

Speaking of songs - 

 

 

NOT YET MATE !!!!!!!!!!!!

 

Brit15

 

[jjb1970]

I never go to real pubs, only to those which are primarily restaurants (neither my wife or I drink) so it's not such a significant issue for us. One retail sector that has been odd is takeaway food. They have been allowed to remain open yet many closed. The Indian (actually Bangladeshi, but that's another story) takeaway I go to stayed open and the owner was telling me he's had a great few weeks as so much of the competition is closed. There is a retail park near us with drive through KFC and McDonalds outlets next door to each other, the KFC is now open and queues are ridiculous (does anyone really want KFC that much?) yet McDonalds is still closed. We fancied a Five Guys burger meal the other day but you have to use their app or website to order, no turn up and order and the website waiting time was silly so I never bothered. Some takeaway places seem to be doing OK or even thriving to judge from queues in the current mess where others have basically decided it's easier to just close.

[Joseph_Pestell]

20 minutes ago, rockershovel said:

 

Close the premises, on the evidence. Property companies don’t “do” flexible rents. 

If you are using past evidence, I would suggest that it is not relevant to the current situation.

 

If you have one business among your tenants about to fail, you might want to kick them out "pour encourager les autres". But when they are all in difficulty, there is nothing to be gained by taking that approach.

[34theletterbetweenB&D]

16 minutes ago, BlackRat said:

As someone who has had to carry on regardless with work, public contact, no PPE etc....

Funny how that doesn't apply when it comes to essential work.

In short when the 'inessential'  sector goes back to work, it should have its own income tax code. 90% at 30K, 100% above 50K. That'll pay for the borrowing that has supported them. It's only fair, the country supported you while unable to work, now pay the bill.

 

 

[Nearholmer]

The rates you recommend would cause massive deflation to add to all the rest of our woes, but it must be true that incomes will have to be taxed heavily, hopefully on a progressive basis to pay for this.

 

The other thought that has struck me is that the beneficiaries of the economic policies post-2008 have been owners of ‘assets’, including houses, so that some kind of capital-gain-based property transfer tax must surely come into the equation.

 

Might be instructive to look at how tax was used to reduce debt after WW2.

[APOLLO]

And one of the things I fear is as we get "back to normal" (whatever that is), pubs reopening etc is a second wave kicking off and then immediately its back to lockdown. I don't think the country, people, economy etc will survive an extended second (or more) lockdown(s).

 

Perhaps it will be a case of sling the doors wide open, everybody get pi55ed and f**k it.

 

As to paying back "loans" - perhaps student loan style - but this must be done fairly and be affordable to all. 

 

Brit15