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1 hour ago, The Black Hat said:


That is true, but I think the main issue is the fact that there are bigger collections out there that's been built up running on analogue for steam and thus wont convert over to digital whereas diesel models made will have been done so for digital even if fitted with more basic set ups before, ie can just put in a basic decoder and control lights, as the models also cover the time period being done so already came digital fitted and thus no conversion needed. 

 

I'm not sure DCC sockets have been fitted in diesel loco models for any longer than steam, there must be large collections of pre-DCC Lima/Hornby/Dapol/Mainline/Airfix etc diesels that would also need some conversion. The only difference might be that the older diesels will tend to have a more consistently larger area inside for accomodating chips that steam locos may not

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20 minutes ago, GordonC said:

 

I'm not sure DCC sockets have been fitted in diesel loco models for any longer than steam, there must be large collections of pre-DCC Lima/Hornby/Dapol/Mainline/Airfix etc diesels that would also need some conversion. The only difference might be that the older diesels will tend to have a more consistently larger area inside for accomodating chips that steam locos may not


Yes but most of those you mention were retooled by Bachmann and Hornby upto 20 odd years ago. The first Bachmann 37s had a very basic 8 pin socket in them when you lifted the top off and engines like class 25 were sold very cheaply to get people to start to convert over to digital. The Airfix 31, Lima 37, 47, 60, 67, Mainline 56, Hornby 58 - have all been replaced by a DCC ready/fitted model from Bachmann or Hornby or Heljan and these have then incorporated sound. So the diesel market has had the ability to go digital for far longer over a wider range. Yes some steam engines have had sockets or digital fitted, but having things like the deocder mounted just in the loco body and not allowing space for sound or wires on pick up to tender just show how they have tried to get as much as they can from some models. Now Steam is getting the full DCC upgrade and when adding sound / lights and possibly smoke as standard your passing a benchmark moment when things changed. Diesel has been covered generally for some time, which is in part easier to fit the wires and parts needed under the larger body. Hence why its now a case of will a diesel model really offer the value of replacing the digital one already there. You need full control and ready to run as standard to do that, which is why Hattons replace Bachmann for the 66 and Accurascale are about to replace Bachmann for the 37 and 55. Hornby have got lucky so far but their diesel models are to a high standard. Still, that 50 is looking like a target where as in terms of steam thanks to the benchmark moment the range is wide open... it might mean that some that were on the cusp of being viable because of the volume of engines now being done get looked over - alas that might include J21 and B16 - when you can redo a West Country fitted with Sound, smoke and lights that replaces the one done before and thus gets the steam lobby to fully engage with digital more over as those that remain fully analogue dwindle in number the longer that digital remains the leading option supplied to the market. 

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3 hours ago, The Black Hat said:

...... when you can redo a West Country fitted with Sound, smoke and lights ....

When someone does any steam loco fitted with sound that synchronises with the piston motion and automatically knows when the loco is working hard, drifting or anything in between, fitted with smoke/steam that synchronises with the sound AND shows when the fireman puts the blower on before any movement and fitted with lights that look like steam era oil lamps that are not blinding in daylight ( and can show the correct route code for my bit of the Southern ) - THEN I might be interested ....................... the technology has a LONG way to go.

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6 hours ago, The Ghost of IKB said:

Whatever the next loco is, I wonder when it will be announced? Once the deltic arrives maybe?

Tin hat on...

 

So long as it's not steam.......

 

....runs for cover.

 

 

( of course, I don't really mind )

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I think Accurascale are smart enough to hedge their bets by covering both steam and non-steam prototypes. 

 

There are certain dangers in the market for post-steam, or at least diesel locomotives, that are much greater than for steam. There's the obvious one, of a relatively much smaller choice of classes, making duplication with existing or past models inevitable, and clashes with another current project much more likely. In order to maximise their sales potential, new models need to attract both first-time buyers and be good enough to tempt owners of older models to trade up, and there lies the next danger. With every raise of the bar, more people (especially those whose primary interest is operation) will decide that the new one exceeds their requirements and stick with what they already have.

 

All the most popular diesels have been done twice or more, whereas the steam back-catalogue ripe for improvement encompasses at least half the ranges of both Bachmann and Hornby. 

 

A late friend had quite a fleet of Bachmann J39s which we had gradually reduced by 50% through cannibalisation to keep enough non-limping survivors going. Had he lived, he'd have replaced the lot but Bachmann cancelled their upgrade. I doubt he'd have been alone, so there's one possibility.

 

Not for me, though, I'm purely BR(S) and S&D (plus a small dash of BR(W) when nobody is looking).:)

 

John

Edited by Dunsignalling
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16 hours ago, Dunsignalling said:

I think Accurascale are smart enough to hedge their bets by covering both steam and non-steam prototypes. 

 

There are certain dangers in the market for post-steam, or at least diesel locomotives, that are much greater than for steam. There's the obvious one, of a relatively much smaller choice of classes, making duplication with existing or past models inevitable, and clashes with another current project much more likely. In order to maximise their sales potential, new models need to attract both first-time buyers and be good enough to tempt owners of older models to trade up, and there lies the next danger. With every raise of the bar, more people (especially those whose primary interest is operation) will decide that the new one exceeds their requirements and stick with what they already have.

 

All the most popular diesels have been done twice or more, whereas the steam back-catalogue ripe for improvement encompasses at least half the ranges of both Bachmann and Hornby. 

 

A late friend had quite a fleet of Bachmann J39s which we had gradually reduced by 50% through cannibalisation to keep enough non-limping survivors going. Had he lived, he'd have replaced the lot but Bachmann cancelled their upgrade. I doubt he'd have been alone, so there's one possibility.

 

Not for me, though, I'm purely BR(S) and S&D (plus a small dash of BR(W) when nobody is looking).:)

 

John

Spot on thinking. I was nearly as upset by Bachmann’s cancelling the J39 as I was by the cancelling of the Parallel Scot. Times change. Perhaps Bachmann might think again. Perhaps Bachmann is doing more than thinking; these days we don’t know.

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On 20/01/2022 at 17:49, Dunsignalling said:

I think Accurascale are smart enough to hedge their bets by covering both steam and non-steam prototypes. 

 

There are certain dangers in the market for post-steam, or at least diesel locomotives, that are much greater than for steam. There's the obvious one, of a relatively much smaller choice of classes, making duplication with existing or past models inevitable, and clashes with another current project much more likely. In order to maximise their sales potential, new models need to attract both first-time buyers and be good enough to tempt owners of older models to trade up, and there lies the next danger. With every raise of the bar, more people (especially those whose primary interest is operation) will decide that the new one exceeds their requirements and stick with what they already have.

 

All the most popular diesels have been done twice or more, whereas the steam back-catalogue ripe for improvement encompasses at least half the ranges of both Bachmann and Hornby. 

 

A late friend had quite a fleet of Bachmann J39s which we had gradually reduced by 50% through cannibalisation to keep enough non-limping survivors going. Had he lived, he'd have replaced the lot but Bachmann cancelled their upgrade. I doubt he'd have been alone, so there's one possibility.

 

Not for me, though, I'm purely BR(S) and S&D (plus a small dash of BR(W) when nobody is looking).:)

John

 

On 21/01/2022 at 10:22, No Decorum said:

Spot on thinking. I was nearly as upset by Bachmann’s cancelling the J39 as I was by the cancelling of the Parallel Scot. Times change. Perhaps Bachmann might think again. Perhaps Bachmann is doing more than thinking; these days we don’t know.

 

 Have to disagree and believe Accurascale are making it as clear to us as they can without words. They believe they can deliver a state of the art, all bells and whistles Deltic, 92 and Manor.  Three locos which have been produced before.  Those three locos pretty much cover three different segments of the market and there is much much more to come.    

 

Yes there are and have been collectors of models for years, some who have all 22+1 deltics, all 50 class 50s, and maybe even all 74 westerns, as well as Kings, Coronations etc. I am sure they will mostly be electrically as bought, ie not DCC'd, and maybe none with lights etc.  The last couple of dscades though and DCC has made huge inroads to the demographic of toy train collectors, and maybe in the next ten, fifteen or twenty years, those large collections will be sold on as their owners become too old and frail to care for them and run them.  Along come new generations of modelers / collectors - many younger ones expectant of electronic gizmos and who will want DCC as a minimum. These people are very unlikely to be able to afford all "22+1" or 50 or 74, but apart from the volume of units sold by the manufacturer / retailer it really doesn't matter.

 

This struck home with me several years ago at an exhibition where I saw an exhibitor demonstrating a class 37. It could easily be another class these days like a Bachmann 24 or 47, or an Accurascale deltic 92 etc, or other such. An imaginary driver crunches up the ballast, closes the battery switch, then opens the cab door and climbs in. Before you have even started the engine(s) you have DCC sounds whirring away, but then you flash it up and the compressors run, air builds and the driver can squeakily wind the parking brake off, switch in the AWS and put some lights on. You stlll haven't moved !!!!  This is what playing with just one DCC sound loco can be about.

 

So yes, most diesels have been covered once or twice or more, but the key point is if you can produce what people want, at a price which they will pay, then I believe they will buy, maybe the odd one or two, and certainly not 22+1.  But it is a changing market.  The "one off" gas turbines are being produced and I feel sure that 10800 will be one of the next. After all it ran on the LMR, ER and SR during it's period as a BR loco so potential has wider appeal than the "Kerosene castles" for folk who don't necessarily always likes the "big wheelers" in model form. 

 

You are right that steam offers so many more opportunities and I name these as ones I would definitely buy - "Lemon (Stanier) 0-4-4t, Aberdare 2-6-0 and LNWR radial 2-4-2t  but equally I would buy a 10800, a GRCW class 100, a Park Royal class 103, Swindon Cross country and the GRCW equivalent.   

 

      

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With the talk about the J39, as there are manufacturers tooling up these days for the variations within what look like identical locos it might be feasible for the smaller wheeled Scottish version J38.

 

Perhaps something left field such as an Irish J15.

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On 23/01/2022 at 12:03, Dorset33 said:

An accurate class 33 /0/1/2

Are there that many issues with the latest Heljan offerings that require a new model.  Not being funny, genuine question.

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On 20/01/2022 at 08:47, The Ghost of IKB said:

Whatever the next loco is, I wonder when it will be announced? Once the deltic arrives maybe?

They will wait before doing another loco until the girl who assembled the purple deltic is well and back to work,could be a while yet i guess.......

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8 hours ago, KDG said:

Are there that many issues with the latest Heljan offerings that require a new model.  Not being funny, genuine question.


There certainly were issues but I think their 3rd or is it 4th attempt is slightly better than those first ones, but even then it’s nothing like the standard that Accurascale achieve. 
 

To be honest I think most classes, whether they’ve been done before or not, should and deserve to get the Accurascale treatment!

 

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On 25/01/2022 at 13:14, Global said:

To be honest I think most classes, whether they’ve been done before or not, should and deserve to get the Accurascale treatment!

 

But the question then becomes do enough others agree with you so Accurascale can stay in business?

 

Take the Class 24/25 - several new tooled items in the last say 5 years, would adding a 4th be profitable?

 

Class 56 - enough market for 2 new tools?  I doubt it.

 

Or the Class 47 - you might get away with a 3rd new tool on such a popular class, but would there be a better financial return avoiding that and doing something else?

 

Don't get me wrong, there are things I really hope Accurascale (or perhaps 1 or 2 others) tackle - Class 50, Class 155, HST (power cars and Mk3), Class 118, etc.

 

But given the costs of bringing a new tool product to market there will be a difference between should/deserve and financially wise.

 

On 23/01/2022 at 06:10, Covkid said:

Have to disagree and believe Accurascale are making it as clear to us as they can without words. They believe they can deliver a state of the art, all bells and whistles Deltic, 92 and Manor.  Three locos which have been produced before.  Those three locos pretty much cover three different segments of the market and there is much much more to come.    

 

But those aren't what was being referred to by Dunsignalling.

 

All 3 of those were older tooling (same as the Class 37) and thus really aren't a duplication in the sense that is meant when calling duplication is potentially dangerous to the manufacturer - they really are more "replacement".

 

But a new Class 56 to take an example from my list above would be duplication, and for a smaller interest class would be likely be bad from a finances perpective.

 

 

 

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On 25/01/2022 at 18:14, Global said:

but even then it’s nothing like the standard that Accurascale achieve

 

Do you mean "nothing like the standard that we hope/expect Accurascale will acheive"? Remember that we have only 1 loco to judge them (and IRM) against at the moment.

 

Don't get me wrong, I like what I see from what they do and if their wagons are anything to go by then they will be excellent, but ultimately the proof will be in the pudding.

 

7 hours ago, mdvle said:

But given the costs of bringing a new tool product to market there will be a difference between should/deserve and financially wise

 

I completely agree, and it is something people seem to forget when requesting things that decent models already exist for.

 

7 hours ago, mdvle said:

All 3 of those were older tooling (same as the Class 37) and thus really aren't a duplication in the sense that is meant when calling duplication is potentially dangerous to the manufacturer - they really are more "replacement".

 

I think the 37 is probably the only duplication on locos that the existing model was already very good, BUT as far as I am aware, AS have yet to announce any 37 that Bachmann actually have the tooling for and so it isn't really a duplication either.

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I would imagine once the initial release of 37’s are sold out 37/4’s will come thick and fast in there 1980’s condition. 
Given the relevance to Scotland perhaps even an announcement in Glasgow at the end of February is a possibility!

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13 hours ago, mdvle said:

 

But the question then becomes do enough others agree with you so Accurascale can stay in business?

 

Take the Class 24/25 - several new tooled items in the last say 5 years, would adding a 4th be profitable?

 

Class 56 - enough market for 2 new tools?  I doubt it.

 

Or the Class 47 - you might get away with a 3rd new tool on such a popular class, but would there be a better financial return avoiding that and doing something else?

 

Don't get me wrong, there are things I really hope Accurascale (or perhaps 1 or 2 others) tackle - Class 50, Class 155, HST (power cars and Mk3), Class 118, etc.

 

But given the costs of bringing a new tool product to market there will be a difference between should/deserve and financially wise.

 

 

But those aren't what was being referred to by Dunsignalling.

 

All 3 of those were older tooling (same as the Class 37) and thus really aren't a duplication in the sense that is meant when calling duplication is potentially dangerous to the manufacturer - they really are more "replacement".

 

But a new Class 56 to take an example from my list above would be duplication, and for a smaller interest class would be likely be bad from a finances perspective.

Sorry but I cannot distinguish the difference between Cavalex and Hornby 56s vs Bachmann and AS 55s.

 

I interpret you as suggesting that the new tool AS 55 is OK but the new tool Cavalex 56 is not MDvie ? 

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17 minutes ago, Covkid said:

I interpret you as suggesting that the new tool AS 55 is OK but the new tool Cavalex 56 is not MDvie ?

 

The Cavalex 56 is pretty much aiming where an AS would be, with the added complication of Bachmann have some skin in the game with their forthcoming 69 which could do exactly what they did before with the 57 and produce a model of the progenitor class.  the water is way hotter there than the 55.

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1 hour ago, Covkid said:

Sorry but I cannot distinguish the difference between Cavalex and Hornby 56s vs Bachmann and AS 55s.

 

I interpret you as suggesting that the new tool AS 55 is OK but the new tool Cavalex 56 is not MDvie ? 

 

No, the Cavalex 56 is fine - it is as I said more a replacement than a duplication.

 

My point was that an Accurascale Class 56 in addition to the Cavalex 56 (or for that matter anyone else other than Accurascale attempting a new tool 56 in addition to the Cavalex one) would split that market and likely leave both with issues covering their financial investment.

 

The point of the post you were replying to by Dunsignalling, and you seemed to disagree with, was that the diesel market is rather dangerous for risk of duplication at the moment.

 

Unlike steam the prototypes are limited in number and many of the classes have had high end new tooling done in the last 5 years (off hand the 20, 24, 25, 37, 45, 47, 56, 59, 66, 68, 69, 93).

 

Other than perhaps the 31, 33, and 50 any other locos would be niche enough that 2 companies attempting to new tool would likely cause problems (and even those 3 might have problems with duplication) - and none are new enough that a license deal could protect against a new tool duplication.

 

With about 7 companies potentially being interested in tooling those remaining classes it will need to be a careful dance by the companies in question.

 

Steam, with a much greater range of prototypes either not done or where the models are probably overdue for a replacement, potentially is a safer place to be.

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