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Attending exhibitions - let's put some data behind it.


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31 minutes ago, john new said:

the real, short-term killer to larger shows is in the very last question on the survey -

 

That one question is the crux of the survey, every other question is really a check and balance to prove uniformity of samples from one snapshot to another and provide additional data to reason why the results of that one question are what they are.

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I know my fear is irrational, I am probably as likely to suffer a fatal heart attack or be involved in a fatal road accident but there is an unknown factor driven by the press and government messaging that makes it somehow harder to be normal around Covina risks.

 

It doesn't help that I don't know if I've been exposed, if I've had it as symptomatic or if so far I've simply not been in contact.  I just popped to Asda, unlike earlier at Sainsbury's, Asda was full of people without masks, I actually thought had I missed an announcement but maybe it was just because it looks like they have stopped handing out free masks at the entrance.  But wearing a mask, I felt like the odd one out this evening.

 

I don't want to feel this way and if I could shrug it off I would but I have to accept this is how I feel at the moment.  Perhaps in a couple of months I will feel invincible again.

 

But I agree there will be a lot of people who just want to get on with their business, we do need to hear from them because otherwise this poll may be skewed.

 

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On 05/08/2020 at 16:51, AY Mod said:

The responses to the final question indicate that the point at which attendees are likely to feel comfortable in returning seems to be remaining at a static duration into the future or even extending. Increasing confidence would have manifest itself in that point being closer in time from the point of survey.

 

From my own perspective, I think there are two reasons here.  At the time of the first survey, I was scheduled to be operating a layout at Model Rail Scotland at the end of February 2021.  I had no intention of looking to attend an exhibition before then, but I felt comfortable enough with exhibiting that far into the future with the trajectory of reducing new cases and deaths being announced each day.  As such, when I completed the survey the first time, I selected January / February 2021.

 

However, Model Rail Scotland 2021 has now been cancelled and therefore, whilst I'd maybe still be okay with an exhibition at the end of February 2021, I doubt that I'll actually attend an exhibition that early, so I opted for March / April 2021 instead.  My response of slipping into the next category is obviously being repeated by others.  However, some of that may be due to the cancelling of other exhibitions, so once we know one is cancelled, we look to the date at which the next exhibition we might attend is normally scheduled and ask ourselves if we think we'd be content to attend that exhibition that may still go ahead.

 

However, as has been said, it's a difficult question to answer because respondents are trying to guess from the information available to them when the number of cases in their region will be low enough for them to consider it 'safe'.  A couple of months ago, at a national level, the number of new cases and deaths being announced each day was falling and it's possible that many assumed that trajectory would continue.  However, we've seen in recent weeks that the number of cases and deaths has stopped falling and therefore the point at which the number of new cases / deaths drops to say single figures, is clearly moving further into the future.  We're also seeing an increase in cases in other parts of the world due to reopening of the economy and trying to factor in the same likelihood here.

 

It obviously makes it very difficult to plan the timing of a show.

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We have very little data on how infections are picked up as there is no backward tracing.  Such evidence as there is shows closed environments are higher risk, that one person can spread to a number of others in such a setting and asymptomatic carriers seem to pose a real problem.  Normal behaviour at shows, wandering and lingering, bring you into contact with a large number of people and quite possibly a number of them for longer than the 15 minutes that is posited as a threshold.  Those demonstrating or exhibiting probably have a higher risk of such contacts than the visitor.

 

Hard surfaces are reckoned to be problematic too, there was one early cluster in Germany that was traced to a shared salt shaker in a canteen.  There are loads of unconscious behaviours at shows that would be very hard to curtail especially if you are there for a few hours; sitting on a shared chair, holding the barrier rail round a layout or rummaging through bits on the second-hand stall.

 

The issue with the virus is that even if you control your own behaviour, the behaviour of others influences the risk to you.  Folk mention the risk of crossing the road; well this is like having a significant number of drivers on the roads who will periodically swerve onto the pavement, which would certainly change my perspective on having a stroll.

 

In terms me going to any sort of gathering, it's down to vaccination, elimination, reliable treatment or some mutation in the virus that makes it much less dangerous.

 

Alan

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I will welcome back with open arms the "SHOWS" as soon as there is a working vaccine. 

The risk is too great if there are to be shows without a suitable vaccine to counteract any potential virus contagion.  

 

As for interest in the general public numbers they are the minor people at shows with the majority being hobbyists and that ratio wont change.

 

Best

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6 hours ago, Phil Parker said:

 

I prefer to look at the numbers and these tell me that deaths are decreasing. Hospitalisations are decreasing. Extra testing finds lot of people who didn't know they were ill but are infected. This is a problem, but not for them and suggests that Covid is spread through more of the population than anyone thinks. If this is the case, and the aforementioned hospitalisations are down, it's not as bad as we have been told - I've read people claiming it has a 7% death toll of anyone infected on Twitter for example and that is plan wrong.

 

I wasted a load of time this morning trying to find a graph I've seen of deaths with significant events marked on it - BLM protests, crowded beaches, opening of pubs etc. each of which have been used to loudly predict the second wave that will lay millions to waste "in 2 weeks", and each of which have made no different to the downward trend of all the numbers. The reasons for this failure are many and varied - but the doom-mongers have leapt on their with their predictions but melted away when they didn't come true.

 

What I have worked out is that science has no part in this discussion, only emotion matters. It doesn't matter how safe we are, it how safe we feel we are that matters. If people don't feel safe then they won't go to a show.  It's better explained in this Times article someone pointed me at. Also, exhibition managers need to feel that they are safe from a sudden "local lockdown" that could see them suddenly have to keep the doors shut. You don't waste time organising an event unless you feel there is a very good chance it will go ahead.

 

All that fear, amply demonstrated on here, is why I'm not convinced we will ever see shows back. I hope I'm wrong, but if a large group of model railway enthusiasts are arguing for shows not to happen, it doesn't look positive does it?

 

Oh dear Phil.  Your post if full of fake news, mis reports and basic lack of understanding - not just by you but also by people who you get your information from.

 

Deaths are decreasing, but infections are increasing. [and here in France we are still a couple of weeks ahead unfortunately.]  Without infections you have no deaths, but if infections are increasing the likelihood is that deaths will uptick as well - just some weeks in arrears.  

 

There are undoubtedly many more cases of infection than have been identified - but it still represents just a few percent of the population - at best 10% but maybe less.  So turned around, 90% of us are still vulnerable.  The 7% death toll is however patently wrong in countries such as ours.  However if we have lost 40k souls with a 10% infection, at the end of this how many will have died if there is no change, no miracle medication, no vaccine?  I would hazard around 300k - you cannot just go to 400k because once we have a large degree of infection the ability of the virus to find a fresh victim diminishes which is the basis of herd immunity.  

 

Significant events will not and never would cause a cataclysm in 14 days.  The impact and build up is much slower than that.  I did some back of a fag packet calculations and estimated that it would take around 10 weeks from a significant event, for the major impacts to be felt in new cases and hospitalisations and a few weeks more before that was converted to increased deaths.    So 10 weeks ago the Uk was just starting to release people from lockdown and we now begin to see the impact with an increase in new cases.

 

Science, properly applied does have a major contribution to the debate - unfortunately there is much that is based more on emotion than science.  

 

You are however right that if people do not feel safe they will not venture out to any form of mass gathering and since we are largely composed of people who are more rather than less vulnerable as a group we will be much more conservative than the population in general.  

As for how this translates to how exhibition managers will/can react then currently I agree with your analysis, but changes in treatment, reductions in severity of symptoms through improved medication and treatment and perhaps finally vaccination will all change that.  

 

Today it does look rather bleak, but I am a glass half full man and expect things to change for the better - not tomorrow, but not too far away either.

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5 minutes ago, Andy Hayter said:

So 10 weeks ago the Uk was just starting to release people from lockdown and we now begin to see the impact with an increase in new cases.

Whilst that statement is correct the two ideas contained are not necessarily directly linked.  It is known, for instance, that the number of infections being detected has risen slightly taken as a nationwide figure but that the rise is steeper in a few localised areas and that is where even more testing is now being directed meaning more infections are likely to be found in those areas.  

 

However there remains the great majority of the UK where there is no immediate cause for concern nor intervention.  Infection rates there based upon positive tests and interpolation across the wider community are now very low.  The infection rate in many parts of the southern half of England and most of Scotland appears to be falling.  The so-called "R-rate" might also have fallen in some areas but the sample size is becoming ever smaller making that measure less useful because it misleadingly distorts the reality.  

 

Yes there is also a lag between infection and death but we are also not seeing an increase in hospitalisations which might suggest the death rate is about to spike upwards.  

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You are of course right.  Any increase in numbers is entirely dependent on peoples behaviour.  I was not implying that 10 weeks was an immutable number and thought I had made that clear by saying it was a back of a fag packet number.  The intention was however to show the gap between 14  days and a possible reality.

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I live in a very low area of infection of covid 19, but this is the oldest population in the country,  North Norfolk having an average age of 58.4, against the UK average of 40.  Devon was getting too expensive, so more wrinklees are heading this way...

Hence although we have a low infection rate, last months deaths were 4 for covid out of 21 deaths total,  or about 20%

 

We are now invaded by grokles,  we've stopped going to the Beach a short walk from home,  or the local town except for absolute  necessities . The morning cars are already heading to the beach,  more than normal. 

 

Me I'm almost 63, so into the worrying age,  I'm have two medical problems which add to the risk,  and a third which means I'm allergic to common anaesthetics,  so intubation would be a serious problem.. 

 

So the chances of me heading to an exhibition until vaccinated are slim,  similarly SWMBO is not heading to her hobbies exhibitions. 

 

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10 hours ago, Andy Hayter said:

Oh dear Phil.  Your post if full of fake news, mis reports and basic lack of understanding - not just by you but also by people who you get your information from.

 

Deaths are decreasing, but infections are increasing.

 

So when I say deaths in the UK are decreasing, this is "fake news"? How? The numbers, are accurate. Yet your overly patronising, and doubtless intended to wind me up for your own "entertainment", posting, tells me that I am wrong.

 

Ee1AKW3WoAU3AhB.png

There's a picture for you. The black line is the 7 day rolling average. The orange bit is subject to change because we are interested in date of death, not when they are registered and reported, sometimes many weeks after the event.

 

Ee0_1wMXgAYY9rS.png

 

Another picture. Infections are a problem because we have NEVER known how many there are. As the vast majority of people exhibit no symptoms, unless you test everyone every day and have been doing for the last few months, anything is little more than a best guess. Targeted testing is finding more infections, but in the UK, the percentage of infections to tests seems to be holding steady.

 

10 hours ago, Andy Hayter said:

Without infections you have no deaths, but if infections are increasing the likelihood is that deaths will uptick as well

 

True, but the relationship isn't as clear as you would like. Hospital admissions are still down. Many are down to single figures of patients, sometimes none at  all. It's a very complicated situation. There are both UK and Italian medics suggesting the virus has mutated to a more infectious, but less deadly form, although no conclusive proof of this. This has happened before (SARS) and is the natural path of many viruses. The common cold is a virus and infectious, but since the death rate is low, we don't worry about it.

 

10 hours ago, Andy Hayter said:

Significant events will not and never would cause a cataclysm in 14 days

 

You've never been on Twitter then have you. Every even, BLM, beaches, pubs, is always heralded by a scream that we will have an uptick in 2 weeks. Every single one. It doesn't matter what the science says - and this is my point. No-one cares about science, or face. Only emotion matters.

 

10 hours ago, Andy Hayter said:

The impact and build up is much slower than that.  I did some back of a fag packet calculations and estimated that it would take around 10 weeks from a significant event, for the major impacts to be felt in new cases and hospitalisations and a few weeks more before that was converted to increased deaths.    So 10 weeks ago the Uk was just starting to release people from lockdown and we now begin to see the impact with an increase in new cases.

 

Except that those cases are usually traced to packing plants and area where people are living in close confinement. They are also very low numbers despite that the media like to say.

 

leicestgraph1.png

 

The terrifying Leicester rise? not massive in a city of 329839 people. Undesirable, but dropping even before the lockdown happened.

 

leicester-2.png

 

(Source for these graphs)

 

And the commensurate rise in deaths. While every death is sad, this doesn't tally with the media reports. Again, emotion trumps science, even for politicians.

 

tweet.jpg

 

Weirdly, this is the one thing I agree with the idiot Trump on. Test more and you will find more cases. If these cases are mild, then we need to learn not to worry about them. That's going to take a very long while. Maybe then we get to have shows again.

 

Anyway, that's enough of my Saturday wasted.

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I think that we will need to get past winter for a suitably proportionate  long term response to the Covid situation to stabilise, until then its like Brexit or religion, no set of graphs or stats will bridge the divide between those that don't want to venture out and those that are willing to resume activities.

 

However, for the matter at hand, the more practical issues remain those of venues that are willing to host, exhibitors that are willing to exhibit and the ability to navigate the practicalities and commercial realities of staging a show.

 

However, before the pandemic the calendar was groaning with big, medium and small shows and I do think that whoever is able to stage an event either later this year or early in the new year should have the potential for successful attendance, simply because whatever the reduced pool of williing attendees, the lack of any shows would I hope ensure that there is a sufficient turnout to any reasonably well advertised and organised event.

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Aside from all the health stuff, the main thing that’d keep me away from going to a show as a punter would be the pressured feeling you can’t linger for too long at a layout or a trader, to prevent a big queue building up behind, the enjoyment might well disappear when you’re working your way around the sausage factory queue of distanced layouts! 

 

I used to love shopping (someone has to!) but since all this you feel very rushed to get in and out of the shop and keep out everyone’s way...the fun of browsing has gone and that’d be the same thing keeping me away from a show for now!

 

My own thoughts are that this is all just a blip, maybe a couple of years and we’ll get back to some normality - no rush, things in model railways operate at a glacial pace - the club project I’ve been working on has taken 15 years of effort, so if we have a couple of fallow years, it’s not actually a long time when you think about it in perspective!

 

Cheers,

James

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I have the gut feeling that exhibitions much before mid-2021 would probably be pushing things, both from a precautionary health standpoint and a practical one.

 

The default position at present is that hiring out of school halls for non-school activities is banned u.f.n. Shows that use them (quite a big chunk of the total) are effectively done for until that gets relaxed. Those who use multiple areas of the school may find a ban will stay in force even longer.

 

The new kicker is the possibility of localised lockdowns dictating cancellation of shows with only a few hours notice. At worst, this means an event that's ready to open on Saturday morning can get scratched on Friday night, after almost all the costs have been incurred. I can't see anybody being keen to risk that happening without suitable insurance cover. I have no idea if the insurance industry yet offers such a product, but I doubt it will be cheap.

 

John

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On ‎05‎/‎08‎/‎2020 at 19:34, PaulRhB said:

A brave group that tries that first when we get so much moaning about costs already. A museum doesn’t have independent traders who understandably want the usual footfall or a reduction in stand charges which would cut the money further back. There are two revenue streams, punters and traders, that need to be factored in somehow and I suspect traders will be asking what happens because lower numbers inevitably mean less impulse purchases plus the big spenders who stay away altogether...

I am fully onside with all this, especially the bravery required of the promoter, and the extreme wailing and moaning that would result at a premium price grade exhibition, but that's no reason not to consider it. The best things always cost more, and I would not consider it outrageous to be asked for £50 to see 20 or so top class layouts (all guaranteed to be operating!) , all able to be seen in comfort; followed by a dedicated high quality retail area of specialist suppliers, strictly after the exhibition section due to the one way flow enforcement.

 

But then, I am a 'couple of shows a year tops' man, and the show I want is the cream of larger prototype faithful layouts, with a wide choice of retail supplies, and a comfortable experience throughout. There might be a clientele for such a thing.

 

On ‎05‎/‎08‎/‎2020 at 19:34, PaulRhB said:

...seeing friends you know and trust can be done within sensible guidelines...

When the restrictions were first eased to allowing meeting a few members of another family in your garden we got on with a long delayed event for a god-daughter in our garden. In the midst of which it emerged that g-d had earlier that day totally breached guidelines despite her highly responsible parents very clear guidance. (As g-p present for the defence, it fell to me to remind her biological parents of several irresponsibly loony things they had done in their mis-spent teens and post medical qualifications obtained twenties even, and happily escaped with no serious consequences.)

 

This is what happens. There's no way to totally eliminate risk. You are going to become a crumbling wreck and die some day. Accept this, take care to reduce risk, but don't hobble yourself while still living is my attitude.

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18 hours ago, woodenhead said:

I don't want to feel this way and if I could shrug it off I would but I have to accept this is how I feel at the moment.  Perhaps in a couple of months I will feel invincible again.

 

Same here I fear.  I never thought I would be in this state, I thought I was more resilient - but I find I'm not.  There is no way I am going into any crowded area until I have been vaccinated with one that is proven to work - so probably not the Russian one!

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Went into the Trafford Centre for the first time since lockdown allowed all shops to open.

 

Was heading to John Lewis so I parked at the back so I didn't need to go into the centre proper thinking there would be a reasonable volume of people.  Walked in no queuing, then once inside I realised why - it was empty.  Did what I had to do in John Lewis but had to venture a little into the main centre due to an escalator being out to get back downstairs - ended up in M&S.  The centre was empty, M&S was empty, the other shops around me were empty.  I am not used to seeing the big shopping centre for South Manchester in such a state - even on a weekday evening before Covid there would be more people about than I saw today, a Saturday afternoon.

 

If people are not venturing into a shopping centre in levels above what could be described as a 'smattering' then if there is a silent majority waiting on exhibitions starting again you need to make yourself known.

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9 minutes ago, woodenhead said:

Went into the Trafford Centre for the first time since lockdown allowed all shops to open.

 

Was heading to John Lewis so I parked at the back so I didn't need to go into the centre proper thinking there would be a reasonable volume of people.  Walked in no queuing, then once inside I realised why - it was empty.  Did what I had to do in John Lewis but had to venture a little into the main centre due to an escalator being out to get back downstairs - ended up in M&S.  The centre was empty, M&S was empty, the other shops around me were empty.  I am not used to seeing the big shopping centre for South Manchester in such a state - even on a weekday evening before Covid there would be more people about than I saw today, a Saturday afternoon.

 

If people are not venturing into a shopping centre in levels above what could be described as a 'smattering' then if there is a silent majority waiting on exhibitions starting again you need to make yourself known.

 

Or is it just a combination of people shopping online, or finding other things to do in the hot weather?

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17 minutes ago, woodenhead said:

if there is a silent majority waiting on exhibitions starting again you need to make yourself known

 

I speak to a lot of people across the wider hobby in the course of a working month; I don't think there is one.

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Many of these big shopping centres were teetering on the brink of bankruptcy even before lockdown; I suspect their days may be numbered. Their fundamental problem has been that their overheads are so high that model railway shops couldn't afford their rents, so there was no incentive for middle-aged men with disposable income to visit them.

 

I would imagine that exhibition halls and conference venues may now be in a similar parlous situation, which would certainly affect the future for a number of well-known shows.

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26 minutes ago, woodenhead said:

Went into the Trafford Centre for the first time since lockdown allowed all shops to open.

 

Was heading to John Lewis so I parked at the back so I didn't need to go into the centre proper thinking there would be a reasonable volume of people.  Walked in no queuing, then once inside I realised why - it was empty.  Did what I had to do in John Lewis but had to venture a little into the main centre due to an escalator being out to get back downstairs - ended up in M&S.  The centre was empty, M&S was empty, the other shops around me were empty.  I am not used to seeing the big shopping centre for South Manchester in such a state - even on a weekday evening before Covid there would be more people about than I saw today, a Saturday afternoon.

 

If people are not venturing into a shopping centre in levels above what could be described as a 'smattering' then if there is a silent majority waiting on exhibitions starting again you need to make yourself known.

Anecdotally, I've heard that a number of town/city centres seem to be quieter on Saturdays than during the week.

 

Could be that many people are thinking it will be busy and going in on weekdays (if they can) to avoid crowds that turn out not to exist because loads of others have done the same.

 

Nothing new for me. I quit the 9-to-5 in favour of working shifts in 1992, and the number of Saturday shopping trips I've made since then can be counted on the fingers of one hand. I don't see any point in fighting my way through a throng if I don't have to. Added bonus: most of the time, midweek means no screaming kids running around (or just screaming). 

 

Grumpy old git mode "off".:)

 

John

 

 

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I don't have any more problem attending an exhibition than a shopping centre. Tickets could be sent in advance with staggered entrance times. If any part was too crowded or busy people can always step outside till it quietens down. 

 

I suspect the main problem is the cost of temporary screens for exhibitors  and the difficulty of spacing exhibits in a way that wouldn't reduce the attractiveness of events. If you can't offer something worthwhile and at reasonable cost then why do it? 

 

It is a difficult call. I do worry about Covid and know someone who died of it. I also worry about the economic impact on venues, museums, halls and small traders if we wait another twelve months before exhibitions, gigs and community activities resume. We are not just talking lost livelihoods and human misery but the loss of important community facilities that will never come back. 

 

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Our club, on average, gets invited to about eight shows a year. Naturally, every show we have been invited to this year has been cancelled. Now with lockdown being eased, many shows are still being cancelled as being economically unviable. With the organisers being forced to reduce the number of exhibitors attending, not being allowed to have catering and in some locations having the toilets out of bounds to both the public and the exhibitors, it makes you think, do you really want to attend? I really cannot see things getting back to normal until this virus dies out or we get a vaccine. Also, with traders, do they really want to have to sanitise their products every time the general public handle them? Sanitiser and cardboard stock boxes don't mix. 

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Phil

I apologise for wasting a small part of your Saturday.  I could go through your post but I don't think that would contribute to the issue of exhibitions.

 

I do however take exception when you questioning whether I think a drop in the death rate is fake news having quoted me saying that I accept that the death rate is currently falling.

 

I think we will see this next phase of the pandemic in Europe being rather different to the first phase.

The first phase started rather randomly in the population at large but due in part to government mistakes (in hindsight at least)  made a significant transfer into the aging population in care homes.  Note this was not unique to the UK but the causes were very often similar.

 

This time around the increase in infections is starting in the under 40s mainly - a group who having had their social lives destroyed for months are now reacting.  They are more resilient so we will not see deaths rising to anything like the Spring levels in the coming months.  Tracing and isolation will also help to reduce the number of hospitalisations. 

I do think however that this phase will move into the general population and at that stage we will see the number of severe cases increasing.

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I have read all these posts and 'reading between the lines' from those whose business it is to know these things, I think it is as obvious as it can be that exhibitions (as we have known them) are off the table for at the very  least nine months, probably twelve months, possibly 18 months.

 

Whether or not you like it (or I like it) that is what is as plain as day. 

 

Why?

 

Because unless a benefactor comes along with  thousands of pounds they are prepared to put up to underwrite the possible losses  of a show, no club or business in their right mind would put on a show for the foreseeable future.

 

Don't believe me? Look at the the results of Andy's survey!

 

I think that what we might designate as club open days may appear much sooner - events with very little outlay, events which could break even with 50-100 visitors

 

But events which might bankrupt a club or business if things went badly wrong are almost certainly off the table.

 

Better to make no income for 18 months than put on a show and lose thousands and go bankrupt.

 

 

 

 

Edited by TEAMYAKIMA
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On 06/08/2020 at 02:01, DanielB said:

 

 

Adults have the capacity to understand this pandemic, 

 

So why are the beaches crowded? (Other similar scenarios are available - see below)

 

A few weeks ago, I was starting to embrace the idea that I may feel partly comfortable at an exhibition (on at least 2 of the three fronts of trader/exhibitor/visitor), but having had the misfortune to be talked into visiting a large blue and yellow coloured furniture store last week, I am now of the opinion that a small-but-enough-to-be-concerned-about percentage of the population are ignorant/selfish/immortal/arrogant/can't be ar$ed (delete as appropriate) as to make me reconsider my previous thoughts

 

I know it's not the same demographic as a model railway exhibition, but even if it translates to a lesser percentage at a show, it's still probably enough for me to re-think about my own personal wellbeing.

 

 

 

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