Attending exhibitions - let's put some data behind it.

[phil-b259]

7 hours ago, woodenhead said:

Went into the Trafford Centre for the first time since lockdown allowed all shops to open.

 

Was heading to John Lewis so I parked at the back so I didn't need to go into the centre proper thinking there would be a reasonable volume of people.  Walked in no queuing, then once inside I realised why - it was empty.  Did what I had to do in John Lewis but had to venture a little into the main centre due to an escalator being out to get back downstairs - ended up in M&S.  The centre was empty, M&S was empty, the other shops around me were empty.  I am not used to seeing the big shopping centre for South Manchester in such a state - even on a weekday evening before Covid there would be more people about than I saw today, a Saturday afternoon.

 

If people are not venturing into a shopping centre in levels above what could be described as a 'smattering' then if there is a silent majority waiting on exhibitions starting again you need to make yourself known.

 

I would be wary of making comparisons between shopping visits and attending events.

 

Traditional shopping has been in decline for years now - the arrival of the internet (with a statutory right to return items within 14 days) and the emergence of online only retailers was already depressing footfall before Covid arrived. Increasingly the only reason to actually visit 'bricks and mortar' shops is to use them as a showroom - many people will go and examine products in department stores but not buy them there as they know better deals can be got online.

 

The likes of Intu (The owners of the Trafford Centre) were already in financial trouble before the Pandemic struck precisely because of these changes, all Covid has done is accelerate an existing trend.

 

By Contrast I am not aware of a single 'Internet Only' model railway exhibition before the Covid Pandemic took hold. Model Railway exhibitions (or indeed any exhibition) are more akin to museums, Theatre shows and Heritage railways - people go there precisely because they want the physical experience which cannot be had online. Watching videos of this weekends trains on the Bluebell is completely difference to experiencing them first hand for example, while if we are talking about having a new pair of shoes to wear the end result is the same regardless of whether you had them delivered to your door or went out and bought them from a shop.

 

[PaulRhB]

I’ve rather enjoyed three virtual shows plus monthly zoom meetings for our NG group but would I continue with those over a physical show or meet at a friends house that would require 30-100mile drive? No way! They fill a bit of the gap until the risk is lower but they have nowhere near the atmosphere or the way the real version helps me relax. I get my buzz from physical models and chat so it’s worth the effort. 
 

[fezza]

On the point about people being ignorant, I'm afraid it is not as simple as that. Intelligent people form different views about what is an acceptable risk and behave accordingly. Disputes about the reliability of data also mean the facts aren't clear. Scientists can't agree on whether public wearing of masks is all that useful. Better testing is probably resulting in more outbreaks being discovered, giving a worrying impression even though total cases remain low. Some studies suggest that the vast majority of cases are asymptomatic - so it has probably already infected a large proportion of the population giving them at least short term immunity. But we cannot be sure. 

 

You should also bear in mind that sadly many people still have mind numbingly awful jobs and tough lives. An occasional beach holiday with the kids, sporting event, exhibition or night out is what makes life living. It is very tough when these are taken away for months with no end in sight. That inevitably influences attitudes to risk. 

 

[Dragonboy]

I think it will be a long time before I would think about going to an exhibition again and a lot would depend on the venue.

I've been to schools in Milton Keynes, Warley, and the Motor Museum at Gayden where everyone was packed in almost like sardines and can’t see that I would go back to any of these venues. 
 

I doubt restricting numbers would be viable because costs have to be incurred in these events which is I believe why Warley only have a percentage of the hall available to them and consequently reduced numbers would impact on the profit for the organisers. 
 

Like I guess a fair number of people on here and in our hobby, I am now in sight of 70 and thankfully in good health, but nevertheless I have very little contact with other people by choice, and I am following the guidelines. On my rare trips to a supermarket I am appalled at the cavalier attitude being displayed by others - unless of course they are genuinely medically exempt from wearing a mask over mouth and nose, and I have no doubt this would also carry through to exhibitions. 

[polybear]

9 hours ago, TEAMYAKIMA said:

I have read all these posts and 'reading between the lines' from those whose business it is to know these things, I think it is as obvious as it can be that exhibitions (as we have known them) are off the table for at the very  least nine months, probably twelve months, possibly 18 months.

 

Whether or not you like it (or I like it) that is what is as plain as day. 

 

Why?

 

Because unless a benefactor comes along with  thousands of pounds they are prepared to put up to underwrite the possible losses  of a show, no club or business in their right mind would put on a show for the foreseeable future.

 

Don't believe me? Look at the the results of Andy's survey!

 

I think that what we might designate as club open days may appear much sooner - events with very little outlay, events which could break even with 50-100 visitors

 

But events which might bankrupt a club or business if things went badly wrong are almost certainly off the table.

 

Better to make no income for 18 months than put on a show and lose thousands and go bankrupt.

 

 

 

 

 

Alternatively, come up with an exhibition format that doesn't expose a club to losses of any significance - for example:

 

1.  Tickets are all pre-booked (and quite possibly noticeably higher than we have been used to in the past), and non-refundable in the event of lockdown etc.

2.  Traders come f.o.c. so cannot claim in the event of lockdown.  Their attendance helps attract the paying public.

3.  No (or very minimal - no accomodation/hotels etc.) expenses for exhibitors/demonstrators - as to whether or not this would be practical in reality (could you attract enough layouts to be worthwhile - the exhibitors would need to do it for the enjoyment factor) would remain to be seen.

4.  Profits for entrance fees shared between the venue and the club.

 

No doubt there's loads I've forgotten/have no idea about......

[woodenhead]

@phil-b259 I have to shop, and as you rightly say, I have a choice to go online. 

 

I don't have to go to a model railway exhibition, or a bike show, or a wedding show, or a restaurant or a pub.

 

[phil-b259]

1 minute ago, woodenhead said:

@phil-b259 I have to shop, and as you rightly say, I have a choice to go online. 

 

I don't have to go to a model railway exhibition, or a bike show, or a wedding show, or a restaurant or a pub.

 

 

It depends on what you are shopping for...things are not quite as clear cut as you like to think.

 

Food quite clearly is essential but what about home furnishings, shoes, clothes, makeup, etc. You don't 'have' to purchase any of these things  (unless you have run out of say socks without holes in them and urgently need more) yet many people do! Lets face it the whole fashion industry is built around people buying things because they look nice rather than because they actually need them.

 

It follows that the vast majority of non food shopping activities fall into the discretionary purchase category, which, unlike visiting model railway shows / exhibitions can be done from home. Consequently I stand by my assertion that comparisons between shopping and visiting events is flawed.

 

Once strategies to deal with Covid are in place and people are able / feel safe to mingle in crowded environments I see no reason why model railway shows will not return. Its merely a question of time...

 

 

 

 

 

 

[woodenhead]

@phil-b259 I need new walking boots - use them whenever I go out and our oven gave up the ghost last week, tried to buy online but realised unless you get up close and personal you don't really get to know how good the dials are (for those with poor sight) or what exactly is in the cavity.  A trip to Currys and John Lewis was in order to verify some options and we've come away with a product that we like with the features we want.

 

But I'm not one and probably haven't ever been a slave to fashion, I buy what I need when I need it as does my wife.  My only joy in the retail world used to be purchasing secondhand trains until I realised I was using it for a dopamine fix and realised the pit of guilt in my stomach that I felt when I had unboxed and plonked the train on the track was that the hunt was over - on to the next loco, wagon or coach I didn't need.

[TEAMYAKIMA]

2 hours ago, polybear said:

 

Alternatively, come up with an exhibition format that doesn't expose a club to losses of any significance - for example:

 

1.  Tickets are all pre-booked (and quite possibly noticeably higher than we have been used to in the past), and non-refundable in the event of lockdown etc.

2.  Traders come f.o.c. so cannot claim in the event of lockdown.  Their attendance helps attract the paying public.

3.  No (or very minimal - no accomodation/hotels etc.) expenses for exhibitors/demonstrators - as to whether or not this would be practical in reality (could you attract enough layouts to be worthwhile - the exhibitors would need to do it for the enjoyment factor) would remain to be seen.

4.  Profits for entrance fees shared between the venue and the club.

 

No doubt there's loads I've forgotten/have no idea about......

 

You make a good case and if any club/business are prepared to go forward on the basis of that business plan I genuinely wish them well.

 

I will not go through your plan piece by piece, because, as I say, if a club/business finds your plan acceptable then it may well be a way forward.

 

The biggest problem such a club/business may have is finding a venue. A high percentage of club shows use school halls and it seems that many/most of those are no longer considering hiring them out - especially in term time.

 

So, let me repeat, your plan may work  - and I genuinely wish good luck to any who try it.

Edited August 9, 2020 by TEAMYAKIMA

[trevor7598]

It would not be a good idea to re-start model railway shows for a good while, I fear.

As much as I enjoy them, and use the occasion to buy stock, I also greatly miss the day out.

 

The large shows like Warley and Ally Pally attract people from all over the country, which

is not a good mix at this time, coupled with the fact that most shows are scheduled for

the Winter period. As for the coming Winter who would be able to tell the difference

from the start of a dose of flu, or the bug itself.

 

I for one was gutted when the 2020 Ally Pally exhibition was pulled at the last moment,

but in hindsight it did us all a great service, knowing how crowded that event can, and does get.

[woodenhead]

4 hours ago, polybear said:

 

Alternatively, come up with an exhibition format that doesn't expose a club to losses of any significance - for example:

 

1.  Tickets are all pre-booked (and quite possibly noticeably higher than we have been used to in the past), and non-refundable in the event of lockdown etc.

2.  Traders come f.o.c. so cannot claim in the event of lockdown.  Their attendance helps attract the paying public.

3.  No (or very minimal - no accomodation/hotels etc.) expenses for exhibitors/demonstrators - as to whether or not this would be practical in reality (could you attract enough layouts to be worthwhile - the exhibitors would need to do it for the enjoyment factor) would remain to be seen.

4.  Profits for entrance fees shared between the venue and the club.

 

No doubt there's loads I've forgotten/have no idea about......

 

3 hours ago, TEAMYAKIMA said:

 

You make a good case and if any club/business are prepared to go forward on the basis of that business plan I genuinely wish them well.

 

I will not go through your plan piece by piece, because, as I say, if a club/business finds your plan acceptable then it may well be a way forward.

 

The biggest problem such a club/business may have is finding a venue. A high percentage of club shows use school halls and it seems that many/most of those are no longer considering hiring them out - especially in term time.

 

So, let me repeat, your plan may work  - and I genuinely wish good luck to any who try it.

1.  Non Refundable in the event of lockdown - that will put people off, and as everyone has prepaid online by Credit Card they will simply exercise their right to a credit card refund for a service not received once the date has passed.  A chargeback will be deducted from the bank account of the merchant so the club will have to pay them back.

2.  Don't Traders pay to attend and that helps make the exhibition profitable?

3. One day exhibitions, this has been suggested and is probably a way forward in the short to medium term

4.  Commercial venues, the only likely ones that will be available, charge for their use, why should a club then pay on top a share of their profit unless you believe they will be allowed a use of the premises gratis unless they make a profit?

 

[TEAMYAKIMA]

4 minutes ago, trevor7598 said:

I for one was gutted when the 2020 Ally Pally exhibition was pulled at the last moment,

but in hindsight it did us all a great service, knowing how crowded that event can, and does get.

 

You were gutted?

 

I can assure you that I was ten times as gutted as you were!

 

Sorry to repeat myself (again!) but I had exhibited my layout four times in 2018/19 and it had never been perfect. In the five months after Warley 2019 I worked every day (inc Xmas Day) to make sure that Aly Paly it would be perfect - not 99% perfect - just perfect!  

 

I can assure you I was more than gutted when it was cancelled four days before the show. 

[TEAMYAKIMA]

7 minutes ago, woodenhead said:

4.  Commercial venues, the only likely ones that will be available, charge for their use, why should a club then pay on top a share of their profit unless you believe they will be allowed a use of the premises gratis unless they make a profit?

 

 

Yes, I think that is the suggestion - no charge but a profit split.

 

I make no comment other than it might work - just depends how desperate the venue is for income.

 

But one thought has come to mind - if a commercial venture is so desperate that it will accommodate a free booking in exchange for a profit split then is there not a chance that it will go bankrupt and close its doors before the event takes place?

[woodenhead]

1 minute ago, TEAMYAKIMA said:

 

Yes, I think that is the suggestion - no charge but a profit split.

 

I make no comment other than it might work - just depends how desperate the venue is for income.

 

But one thought has come to mind - if a commercial venture is so desperate that it will accommodate a free booking in exchange for a profit split then is there not a chance that it will go bankrupt and close its doors before the event takes place?

I did wonder if GETS got a good deal from Event City for the show in March but these places don't run on air and they either have guaranteed income stream that the banks can lend/finance against or they shut.  Given that unless they are running as a Nightingale it is likely they have zero income so far since March but still have overheads then I cannot see how they are going to do deals in 2021 where they may not get paid even though an exhibition has been held because the organisers didn't turn a profit or that the profit was so small it did not cover the venue overheads.

[John M Upton]

I am still hoping Peterborough goes ahead although deep down I know it probably won't.

 

After that its Ally Pally next March which I feel is far more certain. 

 

Whatever happens, I have an autistic four year old who must start school in September no matter what so if getting the schools fully operational means shutting everything else down, model rail shows included then I will support this.

[The Johnster]

Social distancing is a thorny issue at a model railway show; there is going to be an immediate conflict between punters who want to spend extended periods looking at layouts or browsing the stalls, and the show’s stewards, who are going to be continually badgering them to move along. Not for me, too stressfull; I only attend my local shows anyway and aim for Sunday lunchtime when it’s quiet.  I’m usually over the pub by 2 o’clock. 

Edited August 9, 2020 by The Johnster
Speling

[PaulRhB]

2 hours ago, woodenhead said:

One day exhibitions, this has been suggested and is probably a way forward in the short to medium term

With local layouts and small ones yes but rarely worthwhile with a large layout unless you can set up the night before.

Mention of how such ideas limit the scope of layouts you can invite has already been made. I think Gresley Beat and Copenhagen Fields take several hours to set up and break down, my full Harz layout needs 2hrs setup. 

It’s a lot of work to put it up run it and knock down a 20ft plus layout all in one day. 
I won’t take my full Harz layout to a one day show except very locally where I can set up Friday and get home in half an hour or with Friday night accommodation as it is too much on top of a long drive. It’s supposed to be fun to exhibit  

 

[woodenhead]

It is meant to be fun, and I think covid is simply sucking the fun out of a lot of things we took for granted.

 

At least whatever we are facing right now isn't an extinction threat, we could have been hit my a meteorite, so whilst for the next 12-18 months things are going to be strange, eventually the screens will come down in the shops and we won't all be looking at each other like plague carriers.

 

I think there are plenty of other barriers at the moment, a single day exhibition and the difficulties of finding a set of locally built layouts capable of being put up quickly would be another one to add in.

[polybear]

3 hours ago, woodenhead said:

 

1.  Non Refundable in the event of lockdown - that will put people off, and as everyone has prepaid online by Credit Card they will simply exercise their right to a credit card refund for a service not received once the date has passed.  A chargeback will be deducted from the bank account of the merchant so the club will have to pay them back.

2.  Don't Traders pay to attend and that helps make the exhibition profitable?

3. One day exhibitions, this has been suggested and is probably a way forward in the short to medium term

4.  Commercial venues, the only likely ones that will be available, charge for their use, why should a club then pay on top a share of their profit unless you believe they will be allowed a use of the premises gratis unless they make a profit?

 

 

1. "This will put people off".   Well it seems to work ok for Theatres, Pop Concerts etc. etc.  As for charge-back - there's plenty of ways to prevent that;  Debit Card payments being one of them  (and no credit card commission being a bonus).  Or stating to the CC Company that charge-back  isn't valid since the buyer agreed to the T's & C's.

2.  Normally, yes.  I'm of the view that such an exhibition would be (necessarily?) more limited in terms of attendance, therefore less potential profit for a trader - hence no fees.

3. Agreed.

4. Some profit is better than no profit, for both club and venue - though it still needs to be viable and worthwhile.  As for "unless they make a profit", I envisage that the organiser sells the tickets prior to committing themselves to proceed.  So if not enough tickets are sold then the exhibition is cancelled and monies returned, hopefully with little or no costs involved.

 

Me?  Assuming I felt safe  (I don't yet) to attend such an exhibition on that basis (with less crowds) then I'd willingly pay a premium.  Railex/ExpoEM/S4um for twice normal entry cost?  Sure, based on comparable quality with previous events (layouts, demonstators, traders).

[RJS1977]

7 hours ago, woodenhead said:

 

 

I think there are plenty of other barriers at the moment, a single day exhibition and the difficulties of finding a set of locally built layouts capable of being put up quickly would be another one to add in.

 

Not insurmountable - a lot (if not the majority) of shows I attend as a punter/exhibitor are one-day shows.

 

A typical calendar of visits for me would be:

 

Maidenhead (1 day)

Astolat (until it moved to a Sunday) (1 day)

Southampton (2 day)

Alton (2 day)

Newbury (until it moved to October) (1 day)

Kenavon (1 day)

Abingdon (1 day?)

Tadworth (1 day)

Egham (1 day)

Ally Pally (2 days) - note these last four would all have been on the same day this year!

Berkshire N Gauge (1 day)

Swallowfield (1 day)

Wessex Narrow Gauge Modellers (Southampton) or Wiltshire NGM (Pewsey) (1 day)

Tadworth 2 (1 day)

Swanley (1 day)

Wycrail (1 day?)

Warley (2 days)

 

What I don't know is how many of those shows start set-up on Fridays. Tadworth starts set-up on Wednesdays!

 

The bigger issue is - as others have pointed out - whether venues will be available and safe to use. 

[newbryford]

2 minutes ago, RJS1977 said:

 

Not insurmountable - a lot (if not the majority) of shows I attend as a punter/exhibitor are one-day shows.

 

A typical calendar of visits for me would be:

 

Maidenhead (1 day)

Astolat (until it moved to a Sunday) (1 day)

Southampton (2 day)

Alton (2 day)

Newbury (until it moved to October) (1 day)

Kenavon (1 day)

Abingdon (1 day?)

Tadworth (1 day)

Egham (1 day)

Ally Pally (2 days) - note these last four would all have been on the same day this year!

Berkshire N Gauge (1 day)

Swallowfield (1 day)

Wessex Narrow Gauge Modellers (Southampton) or Wiltshire NGM (Pewsey) (1 day)

Tadworth 2 (1 day)

Swanley (1 day)

Wycrail (1 day?)

Warley (2 days)

 

What I don't know is how many of those shows start set-up on Fridays. Tadworth starts set-up on Wednesdays!

 

The bigger issue is - as others have pointed out - whether venues will be available and safe to use. 

 

Most weekend shows will start setup Friday. I don't know of any 2-day show that doesn't - and I've been exhibiting since 1980.

There will be exceptions such as Warley that starts Thursday - for laying out and bringing in the big stuff - such as the full-size exhibits.

 

For those shows that open Friday, this will often push back setup to Thursday evening- depending upon when the venue is booked from. Some shows that open to the public for Friday evening will only open for setup during Friday itself.

Other shows that say open Friday lunchtime. may include Thursday evening setup.

 

Some one day shows will begin setup the evening before - probably dependent upon the show itself.

For example - is it a show with small layouts that can be set up fairly quickly?

 

The above is my experience of setup, but I don't doubt that there will be other setup plans.

 

 

 

[Giles]

A slight deviation....... my layout live in my house - I'm not sure how I would feel about returning a layout breathed and sneezed on (I exaggerate!) by several thousand people after an exhibition into my front room if Covid was still prevalent . It doesn't seem awfully sensible. (And no, I don't have options of quarantining it anywhere.) 

 

But likewise, working an exhibition of masked-up exhibitors and punters with social distancing doesn't sound fun in the first place.

[Gilbert]

5 minutes ago, Giles said:

A slight deviation....... my layout live in my house - I'm not sure how I would feel about returning a layout breathed and sneezed on (I exaggerate!) by several thousand people after an exhibition into my front room if Covid was still prevalent . It doesn't seem awfully sensible. (And no, I don't have options of quarantining it anywhere.) 

 

But likewise, working an exhibition of masked-up exhibitors and punters with social distancing doesn't sound fun in the first place.

I completely agree and it sadly illustrates that the more this is thought through the more concerns or risks are identified...

Chris

[john new]

11 hours ago, newbryford said:

 

Most weekend shows will start setup Friday. I don't know of any 2-day show that doesn't - and I've been exhibiting since 1980.

There will be exceptions such as Warley that starts Thursday - for laying out and bringing in the big stuff - such as the full-size exhibits.

 

For those shows that open Friday, this will often push back setup to Thursday evening- depending upon when the venue is booked from. Some shows that open to the public for Friday evening will only open for setup during Friday itself.

Other shows that say open Friday lunchtime. may include Thursday evening setup.

 

Some one day shows will begin setup the evening before - probably dependent upon the show itself.

For example - is it a show with small layouts that can be set up fairly quickly?

 

The above is my experience of setup, but I don't doubt that there will be other setup plans.

 

 

 

For the York Easter Show we also begin the bits that happen at the Racecourse before exhibitors arrive with setting out etc., commencing during Thursday morning.  Even earlier bits of prep occur before that as the vans bringing the show’s working gear have to be hired and loaded for the journey to the venue. (And the converse at show breakdown). The visible public viewing part of Show attendance by participants is only the tip of the iceberg, there is a lot more to it than many of the paying public think. The bigger the show, the wider the geographic catchment area, therefore the wider the risk of spreading any illness/bug from/to new areas.

 

Ignoring exhibitors for the moment, the geographic spread within just the usual set up gang encompasses all three of the obvious Yorkshire Ridings (to use their old designation), Lincolnshire, the greater London area, the south coast plus North and South Wales. The barriers also get brought up by lorry from their store, not sure exactly where, but it is in the English Midlands.

 

Whether actual risk thereby increases over and above popping to your local shop is actually immaterial, it seems like it does, so will deter many. In both the surveys the figure for not for at least 10 months to a year is over 20%. IIRC for the static date of March/April 2021 (When Ally Pally and York are scheduled) the % has also risen from 9% to around 22%.

 

Edited August 10, 2020 by john new
punctuation error corrected

[Legend]

I had to go into Glasgow last week on business , first time since early March.  Some places are very well organised , like the Nationwide Building society . Clearly following protocol , limits on who is in branch, sanitiser , someone explaining and enforcing procedures.  Others not so good . There were signs up on some large shops saying max 50 customers  , but with no one on the front door how do they know who is in?  I got the impression some were just going through the procedures rather than rigorously enforcing them . Then there are the members of the public .  I don't think I saw anyone in a shop without a mask , but they were all over the place ,coming out clearly marked In passageways , generally not following signs, just don't get social distancing at all .  And its the same out in walks , others will know this , some make an effort to social distance others just haven't a clue , and brush past you.  Not sure if its selfishness , forgetfulness or just ignorance, but its there.

 

My rambling point : anyone going to an exhibition will be a cross section of the above . Some will take social distancing very seriously , others might have been out in a not socially distanced pub for the previous three nights, or even gone on a pub crawl - look at pics of that pub in Aberdeen, unbelievable .  But in an exhibition you are only as good as the lowest common denominator , so although you may be low risk , there will be a proportion of people there extremely high risk .  Oh yes, that's true of life now . But the point is I can limit my exposure , that goes out the window  in an area with a large number of people grouped together.

 

There is still a lot we don't yet know about the virus . Theories are there that its airborne and can last a lot longer in the air than we thought .  I think we should be looking at air conditioning and how that may or may not circulate it . Again a factor in exhibitions .  Other than railways my other great passion is travel and particularly cruiseships , but here again we have a large mass of people grouped together some low risk, some high risk . Its the lowest common denominator again. That's the reason I wont be on a cruise ship any time soon.

 

If we get a vaccine it changes , but so long as we have to live with the virus I reckon large public gatherings  are just too risky .