Attending exhibitions - let's put some data behind it.

[Andy Hayter]

7 hours ago, AY Mod said:

Initial results comparing the data show consistencies in the sample cross-section and responses. The responses to the final question indicate that the point at which attendees are likely to feel comfortable in returning seems to be remaining at a static duration into the future or even extending. Increasing confidence would have manifest itself in that point being closer in time from the point of survey.

 

I understand this is a self-selecting sample and cannot represent more casual attendees but there doesn't seem to be any other data out there.

 

When looking at how representative we are I think it is important to remember that we are made up of the three groups identified in one of the questions - namely punters, exhibitors and traders.  Now it is true that as a group we are probably not so representative of punters but I would contend that we do broadly represent exhibitors and traders (where we have indicated that).  So if these two groups are also saying that they don't see a position where they will be comfortable at an exhibition until some months into next year, then it seems to me there will be no exhibitions until then since you cannot have an exhibition without traders and exhibitors.

[DanielB]

Having braved a public venue this last weekend - a zoo - I have had my confidence shaken considerably.

 

Despite there being limited entrance via pre-booked time slots, signs up everywhere encouraging social distancing and the indoor sections stating masks were mandatory, this didn't work in practice.

 

The place was absolutely rammed with visitors, some windows into the animal enclosures often had 20 people on average clustered around them.

 

Social distancing was almost non existent, and even indoors large numbers of people were not wearing masks.

 

Venue staff had no chance of enforcing the government guidelines, even if they had wanted to.

 

Considering the similar nature of a model railway exhibition - large crowds, exhibits warranting the close proximity of punters, and with the indoor sections inspiring no confidence that people will social distance and correctly wear masks, there is no way I'm risking my health just to see some model trains.

 

As I mainly attend as an exhibitor, I won't even be able to give people not following guidelines and not wearing masks a wide berth.

 

How can I social distance if the entire concept of exhibiting means people will be actively flocking toward me in crowds?

 

I'm sorry, as I love this hobby and I love to exhibit at shows, but I am not willing to risk myself and others by attending until a vaccine is not only available but widespread.

 

Bottom line - children attend these shows. If even a single child got sick with COVID due to proximity to a carrier when standing at my layout, I'd never forgive myself. Adults have the capacity to understand this pandemic, but children don't.

[TheQ]

Whilst it might be possible to stand behind a layout,  socially distanced,  3 ft layout width,  + 1ft to a barrier, + standing 1ft behind you'd be almost there. But you'd be trapped behind the layout for the duration .

However,  the airflow in halls is that decided by the air conditioning I'd want to be below the outside air inlet.. 

Then over the period of the show,  you need to eat and drink therefore taking the mask off. 

 

It's those of us that are older,  that have other problems,  that are most at risk, unfortunately that's most of both exhibitors and visitors. So we should be most cautious,  however I was at a market the other day,  and who was grouped around the market coffee stalls unmasked and undistanced, yep the majority were  50+ age group. 

 

I still am unlikely to attend a exhibition as visitor or exhibitor until vaccinated, even then I might still wear a mask...  Why?  how often have you been to a show and couple of days later have a cold or the sniffles,  I know I have several times. 

[TEAMYAKIMA]

The key question here appears to be that many people will only be confident to attend a show either as a punter, exhibitor or trader - WHEN THERE IS A VACCINE.

 

There appears to be an assumption that such a vaccine will be found  - at some time.

 

Earlier in this thread I misquoted an expert and I was quite correctly pulled up on that by a fellow RMwebber and so I want to be very cautious how I pose this question ............

 

COVID19 is a coronavirus.

 

There have been many coronaviruses in the past. Some I believe have been quite deadly, some not so.

 

I realise that we have a slightly different scenario this time - just about every pharmaceutical company in the world is working on this problem now - but allow me to ask the two most basic questions.

 

1. What is society's society's track record in producing vaccines to beat these other coronaviruses?

 

2. How long did it take to produce such vaccines?

 

Edited August 6, 2020 by TEAMYAKIMA

[PaulRhB]

6 hours ago, Andy Hayter said:

Now it is true that as a group we are probably not so representative of punters

I’d say we are a good representation of punters because as far as the traders are concerned it’s the enthusiasts, not the casual visitor, that are the majority or those spending, especially of higher value items. 

[polybear]

5 hours ago, DanielB said:

Having braved a public venue this last weekend - a zoo - I have had my confidence shaken considerably.

 

Despite there being limited entrance via pre-booked time slots, signs up everywhere encouraging social distancing and the indoor sections stating masks were mandatory, this didn't work in practice.

 

The place was absolutely rammed with visitors, some windows into the animal enclosures often had 20 people on average clustered around them.

 

Social distancing was almost non existent, and even indoors large numbers of people were not wearing masks.

 

There was a rather good programme on BBC1 last night regarding CV and it's effects; much of the programme was following doctors and patients etc.  Sadly I didn't see all of the programme, just the tail end. 

There was one part which was pretty scary - they were interviewing a man who had a stroke shortly after having CV; by all accounts it's fairly common and they're seeing it in other countries too, but have yet to understand why.  They showed a photo of the man with his wife and two young children (3-6 y.o's?) by his bedside; the man then mentioned that his wife had died of cancer just before he'd contracted CV19.  That was the motivation to work hard in the stroke rehab centre so he could get home.

There's too many out there who have no idea of the serious & lasting damage contracting CV can have on your health- I certainly didn't.

 

[PaulRhB]

3 minutes ago, TEAMYAKIMA said:

There have been many coronaviruses in the past. Some I believe have been quite deadly, some not so.

 

 

3 minutes ago, TEAMYAKIMA said:

1. What is society's society's track record in producing vaccines to beat these other coronaviruses?

 

2. How long did it take to produce such vaccines?

 

1. That’s the question they have been successful with some but not the relatively harmless common cold one. The trials seem to be producing promise and more importantly they have now discovered treatments that work to save lives of those hit with the worst level. They are still learning but if they can control the vast majority of cases then the hospitals won’t be overloaded which was the biggest danger when this emerged. 
 

2. Best case 12-18 months as the experts have been saying since March, that means March to September 21 before we can assess ‘new normal’ accurately.
 

 

[Dunsignalling]

1 hour ago, TheQ said:

 

It's those of us that are older,  that have other problems,  that are most at risk, unfortunately that's most of both exhibitors and visitors. So we should be most cautious,  however I was at a market the other day,  and who was grouped around the market coffee stalls unmasked and undistanced, yep the majority were  50+ age group. 

 

 

Unfortunately, a self-darwinising element is to be found in all age groups and it's unlikely that any exhibitions that did happen would be free of them, though numbers will presumably decline naturally over time.

 

Their, problem, and nobody can say they weren't warned. My priority is to prevent such idiots taking me with them.

 

John

 

[Dunsignalling]

11 minutes ago, TEAMYAKIMA said:

The key question here appears to be that many people will only be confident to attend a show either as a punter, exhibitor or trader - WHEN THERE IS A VACCINE.

 

There appears to be an assumption that such a vaccine will be found  - at some time.

 

Earlier in this thread I misquoted an expert and I was quite correctly pulled up on that by a fellow RMwebber and so I want to be very cautious how I pose this question ............

 

COVID19 is a coronavirus.

 

There have been many coronaviruses in the past. Some I believe have been quite deadly, some not so.

 

I realise that we have a slightly different scenario this time - just about every pharmaceutical company in the world is working on this problem now - but allow me to ask the two most basic questions.

 

1. What is society's society's track record in producing vaccines to beat these other coronaviruses?

 

2. How long did it take to produce such vaccines?

 

The answer to the two basis questions is simple, almost all coronaviruses of long standing are petty annoyances that disrupt ones life for a week or so rather than carrying a decent chance of ending it.

 

There is also the (slightly cynical) point that a good portion of the pharmaceutical industry's revenue comes from cold remedies of one sort or another. Spending billions developing something to do away with all that would smack of turkeys voting for Christmas.

 

John

[Fenman]

53 minutes ago, Dunsignalling said:

...

There is also the (slightly cynical) point that a good portion of the pharmaceutical industry's revenue comes from cold remedies of one sort or another. Spending billions developing something to do away with all that would smack of turkeys voting for Christmas.

 

John

It’s noticeable that much of the intellectual heft is coming from universities, who then partner up with Big Pharma for production and marketing. Oxford, Imperial and Southampton, among others, are very heavily involved in vaccine development. 
 

Paul

[Andy Hayter]

1 hour ago, PaulRhB said:

I’d say we are a good representation of punters because as far as the traders are concerned it’s the enthusiasts, not the casual visitor, that are the majority or those spending, especially of higher value items. 

 

I would not disagree from the viewpoint of the trader, but from the viewpoint of the exhibition manager it is bums through the door that matters.  He will want a good proportion to be people who are going to keep his traders happy but beyond that he cares not whether they are the most ardent fine-scaler or Joe Bloggs coming in with his family to get out of the rain.  

 

Of course the larger "national" exhibitions will tend towards the visitors being mainly modellers but the smaller local events depend heavily on Joe Public to keep the revenues positive.  

[Phil Parker]

1 hour ago, TEAMYAKIMA said:

I realise that we have a slightly different scenario this time - just about every pharmaceutical company in the world is working on this problem now - but allow me to ask the two most basic questions.

 

This isn't the thread to discuss (again) the benefits of vaccines, how they are developed etc. There is plenty of Internet out there already covering the topic and if you want it here, Wheeltappers.

 

I don't need to spend time swatting anti-vaxers or big-pharma protesters, I have plenty of other work to do.

 

Back to exhibitions please.

[ELTEL]

10 hours ago, Davexoc said:

I see that The Great Electric Train Show in October is still waiting for jury to come out. I'll go if it is on, and I'd even catch the shuttle bus (although in the survey I put private transport, my local ones would usually be free shuttle). Can't see it happening though at this rate.

Perhaps the first one will be the Great Central at Quorn, they could even leave half the sides off the marquee, which would make it more bearable in the summer sun....

Confirmation in the latest Hornby Magazine confirms it has been cancelled.

[TEAMYAKIMA]

33 minutes ago, Phil Parker said:

 

This isn't the thread to discuss (again) the benefits of vaccines, how they are developed etc. There is plenty of Internet out there already covering the topic and if you want it here, Wheeltappers.

 

I don't need to spend time swatting anti-vaxers or big-pharma protesters, I have plenty of other work to do.

 

Back to exhibitions please.

 

Phil

 

On one level I must, of course, bow to your view, but I must say that in this case I disagree with you.

 

In my opinion this thread is not about model railway exhibitions per se, this is about people's confidence in leaving the house, getting on public transport, mixing with other people at some point in the future.

 

And, part of that issue is, in my opinion, can we honestly expect a vaccine?  And part of that evaluation must be what has our success rate been in the past with similar coronaviruses.

 

 

[AY Mod]

2 minutes ago, TEAMYAKIMA said:

In my opinion this thread is not about model railway exhibitions per se, this is about people's confidence in leaving the house, getting on public transport, mixing with other people at some point in the future.

 

The topic IS about exhibitions and the posts were veering towards wider Covid discussions. This topic is proving to be of wider use to exhibition organisers and we don't want it going too far off track. As said there are other topics.

[TEAMYAKIMA]

39 minutes ago, AY Mod said:

 

The topic IS about exhibitions and the posts were veering towards wider Covid discussions. This topic is proving to be of wider use to exhibition organisers and we don't want it going too far off track. As said there are other topics.

 

Andy

 

I defer to your view.

 

Moving on .........................

 

I work at one of the UK's most popular tourist attractions.

 

It has displays, shops, cafes and large crowds - sound familiar?

 

I interact with hundreds/thousands of visitors every working day - sound familiar?

 

The attraction has been closed since March 16th and re-opens in the near future. 

 

The company has spent tens of thousands of pounds on health & safety consultants to make changes to make the visitor experience safe for all parties.

 

As such it has just sent me  pages of new T's & C's which they consider essential to keep me safe. To an extent I used to really enjoy my job but these new T's & C's will strip my job of all enjoyment. But I will have the satisfaction of being paid.

 

Contrast that with working as an exhibitor - I don't get paid, it's 100% about the enjoyment I get from exhibiting.

 

If exhibition managers impose similar T's & C's it will strip exhibiting of all enjoyment. On the other hand, if they don't impose similar T's & C's I would have to ask the question. If my employer at a similar kind of work place feels that these T's & C's are essential, how come YOU don't?

Edited August 6, 2020 by TEAMYAKIMA

[woodenhead]

I had to spend a couple of hours in a Costa on Tuesday whilst my wife was at the hospital.

 

Went in, put on a mask to order then went and sat down in a nice corner to so some work, mask off with a drink.

 

I thought I was OK with this situation in general, but as time went by I realised i was not, it's not that I haven't sat in Costas and Starbucks before working but this was the first time under Covid.

 

I thought I'd be fine about it, I thought I wouldn't worry, I thought there wouldn't be a problem.

 

So that was two hours in a coffee shop which actually was pretty empty and the mix of people sat around me didn't change enormously. When I got home, I used cleaning wipes on my phone, cable and laptop - and I've just realised I didn't clean my personal phone that was also on the table - two days later and I realise that which sent a shock through me.

 

Now to apply this in an exhibition setting - first I need to get there - I used to use public transport and free transfer buses, then I would be amongst a bunch of people of mixed age groups for several hours followed by a reverse of the journey back home.

 

I thought I would be ready to venture out to a model railway exhibition around the end of the year - I am not ready, if I get anxious in a coffee shop with no-one within 3-4 metres of me, then I am not going to be going anywhere where I feel out of control of my personal space.

[Phil Parker]

Since we are railway based, how about some research into transmission on trains? They are crowded spaces after all:

 

https://www.rssb.co.uk/Insights-and-News/News/Innovative-data-methods-for-passenger-safety-during-the-Covid-19-outbreak

 

The initial results

Initial values have been produced for a simple train journey scenario involving a Class 800 carriage. The journey modelled involved loading 44 passengers onto a carriage, travelling for 30 minutes, alighting 22 passengers, boarding another 22 and then travelling another 30 minutes before alighting all passengers.

From this scenario we estimate that the risk of infection per passenger journey is around 1 in 11,000* journeys using the 0.05% population infection rate for England (from ONS). 

 

Impressive as it doesn't take into account cleaning or face coverings. Or the protection provided by a mahoosive rucksack. Apparently there has also been some very detailed work in Germany by DB that comes up with the same conclusion of low risk but I can't find a link to this.

 

The crowd levels tested are far lower than the scrum around some trade stands, but might be more applicable for a specialist or quiet local show.

[Guest Jack Benson]

Sorry but I am fortunate to be a resident of one of the lower percentile areas of Covid-19 cases, we (as a small town community) seem to both diligent in the wearing of masks, hand hygiene and social distancing. Possibly the reason why we are in the lower percentile?
 

There is no overwhelming reason or desire to attend any mass gathering involving potential Covid-19 carriers at the moment, or ever will be until an effective immunisation programme has been instigated and is proved to have worked. In short, no illusuory herd immunisation policy will suffice.

 

Btw, we miss the Digby Tap, the open day on Martin Clune’s farm and all the other summer events in rural West Dorset.

 

So, Cheers and Stay Safe, everyone is precious.

[woodenhead]

The problem remains that all the statistics will show low risk, the actual chance of becoming seriously ill from Covid is very low but.......the Government coverage has created a fear factor that is multiplied by a panic fueled social media into almost hysteria.  

 

I thought I was immune to that hysteria but somewhere in my head it has taken hold and when i stepped into Costa it was triggered. 

 

Yet I happily visit Sainsburys and Aldi on a weekly basis, but I have to do that so maybe I suppress my anxiety response whereas in Costa it is allowed to resonate.

 

At least as a punter I can walk out of any venue where I feel uncomfortable, how many exhibitors at an exhibition may get unexpected responses to being cooped up in a hall for one day let alone two days - all it might take is one individual suffering hay fever or a coughing fit totally unrelated to covid.

 

So in my head I think it will be sometime later in 2021 before I may be ready to visit an exhibition which is a real change from where I thought I was,

[Phil Parker]

4 minutes ago, woodenhead said:

The problem remains that all the statistics will show low risk, the actual chance of becoming seriously ill from Covid is very low but.......the Government coverage has created a fear factor that is multiplied by a panic fueled social media into almost hysteria.  

 

I thought I was immune to that hysteria but somewhere in my head it has taken hold

 

I'm with you there. Looking at cold, hard numbers, the risk of becoming ill is very low. The numbers of people who are currently seriously ill is very low. Many times the number of people die each day from heart problems (450ish) than Covid (9 yesterday). 1 in 10,000 people tested is found to be positive and even then they often don't have symptoms.

 

BUT, like you, I am nervous. Months of propaganda from the government and a media desperate fro clicks/sales/viewers telling us that outside is death. Buses are death. Trains are death, has sunk in. Spend time on Twitter and the hysterical phrase "second wave" is everywhere. The concept of a "lock down" has morphed from everyone stuck inside to any restriction whatsoever. There is no logic to it, but it's certainly worked on me.

[Dunsignalling]

I think I've already rationalised the low odds of catching the virus under circumstances over which I have reasonable control. Familiar locations/situations won't bother me so long as they don't become crowded, and I have the ability to bail if I do become uncomfortable. The worry is not how difficult it might be to catch the thing, but the odds of its seriousness if I were to do so, which involve altogether smaller numbers.

 

Unfortunately, successful shows have always been crowded and probably need to be so in order to be viable.

 

My "short answer" insofar as I expect to conduct myself over the next year (or, quite possibly, two) is that a return to anything resembling "normal", by which I mean the status quo ante, will be entirely dependent on the development and widespread application of an effective vaccine. For me, that goes far wider than attending model railway exhibitions. 

 

John

[Invicta]

5 hours ago, TheQ said:

 

 

I still am unlikely to attend a exhibition as visitor or exhibitor until vaccinated, even then I might still wear a mask...  Why?  how often have you been to a show and couple of days later have a cold or the sniffles,  I know I have several times. 

 

That's the thing, isn't it.  My work situation is that I'm back-room office staff, so working from home, but as we support front-line key-workers I've also been going into the office regularly when needed, throughout lockdown, so am seeing both 'worlds' -  and there do seem to be an increasing number of people out there who aren't taking much effort at all to socially distance.

 

I've had exactly that experience of apparently picking something up at a show in the past- I felt a bit rough with some cold-ish symptoms the day after Doncaster last year, which within 48 hours escalated into a trip to the local walk-in, who referred me straight to A+E and two nights in hospital... 

 

Believe me I won't be taking too many risks with my exhibition attendance (my usual routine for the last few years has been Doncaster, Derby, GCR, FBRM Peterborough, Gaydon/MK and Warley plus any local shows) in the near future until I'm convinced we've got some kind of real control over COVID

[adb968008]

It seems people are veering more towards exhibitions next year (though caution when I write this theres 300 results vs 500 results on the last one).

 

No one knows how it spreads in schools or amongst kids, and many exhibitions are held in school halls. This may not even be an option going forwards.. in our borough the authority has banned schools for any non-classroom activities including after school, groups or outside local club activities renting their spaces... my daughters Gymnastics, musical theatre groups even after school childcare are all homeless currently.
 

Much as I like, exhibitions or anything indoors, or outside of family, just aren't part of my survival strategy. As long as Russia is our only hope for a cure, I don't see the outlook improving for a while. So were taking advantage of the hot summer, isolated, rural and quiet spots outdoors. I’m not even considering a preserved railway journey.

 

Personally, come winter I dont think much will change, the virus is adept in hot and cold. Winter in Arizona, Australia, Brazil and South Africa is still hotter than a British heatwave, and it thrives. I think its down to dense populations, individual immunity and health, which is lower in winter than summer, regardless where you live. I suspect at somepoint science will weigh in a verdict relating to lower Humidity and Aerosol.
 

The message is still very much that survival is in our own hands, plain luck, keeping distance and ultimately the viruses own evolution.

 

If this continues through 2021, perhaps outdoor exhibitions, like BR opendays used to be, but with layouts distanced, visitors regulated and behind perspex might work.

 

I dont think my answers changed much since the last survey. The only behavioural change is practising the hobby with a camera much more often, but in remoter, quieter locations, and being prepared to drive long day trip distances to do it.

Edited August 6, 2020 by adb968008

[Dubloseven]

1 hour ago, Phil Parker said:

 

I'm with you there. Looking at cold, hard numbers, the risk of becoming ill is very low. The numbers of people who are currently seriously ill is very low. Many times the number of people die each day from heart problems (450ish) than Covid (9 yesterday). 1 in 10,000 people tested is found to be positive and even then they often don't have symptoms.

 

BUT, like you, I am nervous. Months of propaganda from the government and a media desperate fro clicks/sales/viewers telling us that outside is death. Buses are death. Trains are death, has sunk in. Spend time on Twitter and the hysterical phrase "second wave" is everywhere. The concept of a "lock down" has morphed from everyone stuck inside to any restriction whatsoever. There is no logic to it, but it's certainly worked on me.

 

 

I quite agree.  I'm totally fed up with the broadcast news. It seems to have become very Americanised in recent years in that they can make losing a hubcap on the M25 a major event requiring 24 hour wall to wall coverage.

Bring back Reggie Bosanquet and Alastair Burnet.

 

That's it for now  ..  I'm back in the lockdown bunker now.

 

Regards, Cliff.