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Attending exhibitions - let's put some data behind it.

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18 minutes ago, Phil Parker said:

You are missing my point. When I say "go out of the door" I mean go to an event. Any event. There is a risk element in anything. We kill around 9 people a day on the roads and yet driving and crossing them is generally considered safe.

 

Strangely, though, having a picnic on the fast lane of your local motorway isn't and we take precautions when driving or crossing the road.  We're individually bad at evaluating risk but we still have a basic perception that some activities are riskier than others and that our behaviour can be a significant factor.

 

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, PaulRhB said:

 

Well like I said before once / if we have a vaccine my risk will be significantly reduced but there’s also a period where those immunised will start to take less precautions increasing risk for those not immunised. 


Once the vaccine is generally accepted to be widely available if people choose to go to a show without being immunised then that is their decision. 

 

 

Exactly. I'll be heading for a jab as soon as possible and, whilst I won't stop taking precautions against spreading the virus, I'll be able to stop worrying about those who have (in too many cases, already).

 

The point is that we'll be able to protect those at elevated risk of harm, allowing our/their lives to resume something resembling normality. Including exhibitions.

 

Being brutally honest, I don't give a toss what happens to the self-darwinising anti-vaxers, the conspiracy theorists and the tin-foil-hat brigade once they cease to pose a hazard to me and mine.

 

I've long held the view that those refusing proven immunisation for any preventable disease should not be treated at public expense if they subsequently get it. 

 

John

Edited by Dunsignalling
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For the survey questions, I'd go to some events by public transport and some by car, it would depend on how convenient both are.

 

I can see this pandemic being very difficult for Exhibition Managers to know what to prepare for, far more so than me being a simple visitor to exhibitions. While I'd be more than happy to go to an exhibition tomorrow, I'd be reluctant to book train tickets or hotels too far in advance having seen local lockdown measures applied practically overnight with the risk of wasting bookings. I dont think Social Distancing would be easy to implement or enforce at exhibitions, but would expect basic measures to be considered like providing hand sanitiser on entry and forehead temperature scanning.

 

Theres obviously going to be a big hit on club funds on missing out on exhibition income for some time so I would suggest that the virtual exhibition format is explored taking more of the format of a broadcast running session with multiple camera angles available and I'd be happy to pay for layouts that I want to see. Sessions could be recorded for viewing at a later date and it would be much easier for clubs to take social distancing measures between operators than for the viewing public in person and could have the added benefit of having a wider audience rather than just those in the local catchment area. Alternatively could clubs produce their own DVDs of extended running sessions just of their layouts? Perhaps they could still have 'exhibitions' on websites with a list of traders where they could provide a video introduction of their business and the kind of things they sell to advertise and bring custom to either their websites or to enable direct communication via phone or email or letter.

 

I had a look at the virtual exhibition that was hosted recently but found the delivered format frustrating being limited in hours, the live feed didn't make it easy to look around if you didn't happen to be looking there and then when it popped up and the content seemed limited. Where there's a will there's a way though and there are still opportunites here with a bit of thought and collaboration to bring the events to the customers because the traditional exhibition is not going to be easy to hold for quite a while.

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Hello all,

 

My wife and I are at high risk.

I've been collecting up the bits lying unused around the house to make videos; LED lights, tripod and rotator, the camera hack for my GH1 and various software programs.

It'll be interesting to find out how to do it at a reasonable level. 

 

Cheers - Jim

First example here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MJOXNQWUxoc

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Judging from what I see, many people are doing differently from what they say.

We hear "Isolate, social distance ..." but as soon as pubs & restaurants are open again, many seem to be happy to rush back because it has become acceptable. I can understand if their attitude was to protect jobs (which is why they re-opened) but I have heard nobody give this as a reason for having a pint.

 

I hear cries of "Vaccine, vaccine". We don't have one yet & it we may never. If not, then what? Stay at home & hide from it for 20/30/40 years until we snuff it? That's not a very good plan.

 

Catching the virus is not a death sentence anyway. We can boost our defence against it by increasing our fitness. I did just that then caught the virus back in March. I could feel my lungs under attack but watching TV was not a problem.

Nearly 4 months after I recovered, the UK's PM publicly states that fitness helps & he had been fitter, he would have recovered more easily. Does he really have to state the obvious? Judging from public behaviour, I think he does.

 

So what is the future? Even if a vaccine does become available (which hopefully it will), most people will have already got bored with restrictions & will be back to normal without it just like we did after SARS, Spanish Flu, Swine flu, Bird flu & the various other infectious diseases which became part of history before cures were found.

 

I have enjoyed the break from shows & will also enjoy them when they re-start.

 

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Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, Phil Parker said:

I confess that the more I read here, the more I believe that the model railway show, along with any mass-participation event, in physical form, is dead and buried.

 

WOW!!

 

Phil

 

I have absolutely no personal axe to grind here with you (or anyone else for that matter) but I am stunned that no-one else has picked up on your comment. Two things come to my mind.

 

1. You must have had a recent change of mind (TBH as hinted in your post) because in the past you have not been too supportive of what you yourself have characterised as the 'doom-sayers' or 'the doom and gloomers' or similar, but I have to say that as far as I know no-one has come close to saying what you have just said.

 

2. It is significant to me that someone like you who has a vested interest in being (overly) positive about recent events has made such a statement.

 

I repeat : I have no axe to grind here. I am in no way criticising you. But as you are involved in the hobby on a full-time basis I find your comments of great interest. Just that I am not saying that I disagree with you and equally I am not saying that I agree with you - I just don't know what to think at the moment.

Edited by TEAMYAKIMA
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Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, Phil Parker said:

 

 

 

I confess that the more I read here, the more I believe that the model railway show, along with any mass-participation event, in physical form, is dead and buried.

No, just on hold until we have real protection from this thing. That's taking longer than the optimists want but will hopefully come along sooner than the pessimists fear.

 

At present, our only defences are risk avoidance and risk management. Reviving physical exhibitions currently would create substantial avoidable risk. Such events will only be killed off altogether should social distancing remain essential indefinitely.

 

Once the scientists are successful in producing one or more vaccines, and/or developing therapies that make treatment for the worst affected (much) less traumatic, things should gradually go back to how they were a year ago.   

 

The main thing to remember about this pandemic is that it won't be over until it's over. Pushing the boundaries too quickly to ease economic pressures (however understandable) can be expected to extend the overall timescale.

 

I doubt I'll see you at Staplegrove next April, Phil, but I'm reasonably confident I will in 2022.

 

John 

Edited by Dunsignalling
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@TEAMYAKIMA

 

I think if the general sentiment among modellers and visitors is that they are not currently likely to attend then it is going to be difficult finding people willing to take on the risk of presenting an exhibition and the longer that goes on then the machinery that exists around the country in terms of venues, volunteers and people building new layouts to exhibit will also drop.  If other organisations like schools and council leisure centres are similarly cautious about risks then that cuts off potential budget locations for exhibitions, moving to commercial locations for smaller shows introduces new financial risks which further compound the situation of finding someone to take on the risk of running an exhibition that few people may actually attend because they may say one thing and do the other.

 

Those plastic screens we now face in everyday life at the supermarket, in coffee shops and suchlike - they are the new normal, I don't expect them to come down soon and we probably won't 'feel' safe until they do.  When you go to sit down somewhere, if there are restrictions that too is a reminder you are not 'safe', so trains, buses, even sitting down in a restaurant there is a reminder you are not 'safe'.  Even a holiday is a risk, will I get ill abroad, will my Government decide whilst I am abroad that I am now deemed a higher risk and when I come home I will have to stay indoors to protect my friends, neighbours, colleagues and the general public.  You try and look at the figures and convince yourself it's fine, it's low risk but at every turn there is something to play with your psychy which unbeknownst then determines what you will and will not do, when you will and will not be anxious about situations you later find yourself in.  It certainly caught me out this week.

 

 

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56 minutes ago, Pete the Elaner said:

... Catching the virus is not a death sentence anyway. We can boost our defence against it by increasing our fitness. I did just that then caught the virus back in March. I could feel my lungs under attack but watching TV was not a problem.

Nearly 4 months after I recovered, the UK's PM publicly states that fitness helps & he had been fitter, he would have recovered more easily. Does he really have to state the obvious? Judging from public behaviour, I think he does...

 

I think it's dangerous to extrapolate from personal experience and come up with sweeping generalisations. To start with for 46000 (+) people it has been a death sentence, some of those were young and some considered fit. It comes across as a bit disrespectful to suggest their outcomes would have been better if they had been fitter. Some individuals have chronic underlying health issues which limit their potential fitness, some by virtue of age are at much increased risk. I imagine that many eighty year olds would love to be able to dial the clock back to forty but sadly time machines are further away than vaccines.

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15 hours ago, Flying Pig said:

 

Where does this figure come from? The Office for National Statistics estimates an infection rate of about 0.07% (70 per 100,000) at the end of July:

 

 https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/31july2020

 

This is about 1 in 1500, so the likelihood of at least one visitor to an exhibition being infected is high enough to be of concern.

 

 

Firstly the current statistic on that link is 1/1900 not 1/1500 updated to a couple of days ago.

Secondly, and to answer the question directly, there is a postcode-search link on this page which refers to credible statistics and from where, in addition to our own local authority announcements, I derived my 5/198,000 (or 2.5/100,000) from.  https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51768274  

 

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Posted (edited)

Until an effective vaccine is widely used, and I'll be as near the front of that queue as possible for that, the only people willing to go to a show are the very people most likely to be infected. The asymptomatic infection rate appears to be high, and that makes my going out and about as normal difficult. I'm in the high risk group, my wife is in the extremely vulnerable group. We can't, and won't be taking any chances pre effective vaccine. 

Edited by GeoffAlan
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29 minutes ago, Gwiwer said:

Firstly the current statistic on that link is 1/1900 not 1/1500 updated to a couple of days ago.

 

Fair enough, but the latest issue was only released this morning!

 

 

 

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Everyone can have their own opinions on the likelihood of a vaccine being available, its safety and effectiveness. I certainly wont be in any queue to get it since the last time a 'cure' for a pandemic was rushed and handed out like smarties for Swine Flu it nearly killed my wife with acute liver failure. Look up Steven Johnson Syndrome and it was more widespread than was ever reported, but all that matters is pharma companies making money off it.

 

The seasonal flu vaccine is tweaked and changed every year placing a bet on which strain of the virus is going to be prevailant that year, so if that hasn't been perfected, why should a coronavirus vaccine be successful in a matter of months? I'll take my chances with Covid

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1 hour ago, TEAMYAKIMA said:

I have absolutely no personal axe to grind here with you (or anyone else for that matter) but I am stunned that no-one else has picked up on your comment. Two things come to my mind.

 

1. You must have had a recent change of mind (TBH as hinted in your post) because in the past you have not been too supportive of what you yourself have characterised as the 'doom-sayers' or 'the doom and gloomers' or similar, but I have to say that as far as I know no-one has come close to saying what you have just said.

 

2. It is significant to me that someone like you who has a vested interest in being (overly) positive about recent events has made such a statement.

 

I prefer to look at the numbers and these tell me that deaths are decreasing. Hospitalisations are decreasing. Extra testing finds lot of people who didn't know they were ill but are infected. This is a problem, but not for them and suggests that Covid is spread through more of the population than anyone thinks. If this is the case, and the aforementioned hospitalisations are down, it's not as bad as we have been told - I've read people claiming it has a 7% death toll of anyone infected on Twitter for example and that is plan wrong.

 

I wasted a load of time this morning trying to find a graph I've seen of deaths with significant events marked on it - BLM protests, crowded beaches, opening of pubs etc. each of which have been used to loudly predict the second wave that will lay millions to waste "in 2 weeks", and each of which have made no different to the downward trend of all the numbers. The reasons for this failure are many and varied - but the doom-mongers have leapt on their with their predictions but melted away when they didn't come true.

 

What I have worked out is that science has no part in this discussion, only emotion matters. It doesn't matter how safe we are, it how safe we feel we are that matters. If people don't feel safe then they won't go to a show.  It's better explained in this Times article someone pointed me at. Also, exhibition managers need to feel that they are safe from a sudden "local lockdown" that could see them suddenly have to keep the doors shut. You don't waste time organising an event unless you feel there is a very good chance it will go ahead.

 

All that fear, amply demonstrated on here, is why I'm not convinced we will ever see shows back. I hope I'm wrong, but if a large group of model railway enthusiasts are arguing for shows not to happen, it doesn't look positive does it?

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Posted (edited)
29 minutes ago, GordonC said:

why should a coronavirus vaccine be successful in a matter of months?

It won’t eradicate it that’s what the experts have said from the start. 
 

So this will be true again. 

29 minutes ago, GordonC said:

seasonal flu vaccine is tweaked and changed every year


It’s about getting control of a new virus that needs the time and we can do our bit by not rushing to mingle without restriction at a show. 
 

The reports in March said 12-18 moths was realistic to see if there’s a possible vaccine and then as it’s global it might take months to produce enough for those that want it. 
We are only 5 months into that research and already some vaccines are under trial. If you write off shows for this year then there’s hope that those original estimates may be met. 
 

11 minutes ago, Phil Parker said:

All that fear, amply demonstrated on here, is why I'm not convinced we will ever see shows back.


Again early days Phil, the fear has worked to keep the majority sensibly taking some precautions. There might well be a slow rise out of that fear but as you said before the human being is not particularly good at immediate risk decisions but they are good at sweeping the past fear away. Much like we largely assumed it wouldn’t come here but stay in Asia again!
Remember Sars and Swine flu hit Asia hard but they bounced back, the same will happen here once there are treatments. 
It’s a century since Europe was hit by something like this, flu’s are still with us and do kill, and it killed far more because they didn’t have vaccine hopes just herd immunity. 

Edited by PaulRhB
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8 minutes ago, Phil Parker said:

 

I prefer to look at the numbers and these tell me that deaths are decreasing. Hospitalisations are decreasing. Extra testing finds lot of people who didn't know they were ill but are infected. This is a problem, but not for them and suggests that Covid is spread through more of the population than anyone thinks. If this is the case, and the aforementioned hospitalisations are down, it's not as bad as we have been told - I've read people claiming it has a 7% death toll of anyone infected on Twitter for example and that is plan wrong.

 

I wasted a load of time this morning trying to find a graph I've seen of deaths with significant events marked on it - BLM protests, crowded beaches, opening of pubs etc. each of which have been used to loudly predict the second wave that will lay millions to waste "in 2 weeks", and each of which have made no different to the downward trend of all the numbers. The reasons for this failure are many and varied - but the doom-mongers have leapt on their with their predictions but melted away when they didn't come true.

 

What I have worked out is that science has no part in this discussion, only emotion matters. It doesn't matter how safe we are, it how safe we feel we are that matters. If people don't feel safe then they won't go to a show.  It's better explained in this Times article someone pointed me at. Also, exhibition managers need to feel that they are safe from a sudden "local lockdown" that could see them suddenly have to keep the doors shut. You don't waste time organising an event unless you feel there is a very good chance it will go ahead.

 

All that fear, amply demonstrated on here, is why I'm not convinced we will ever see shows back. I hope I'm wrong, but if a large group of model railway enthusiasts are arguing for shows not to happen, it doesn't look positive does it?


You need bear in mind the thing called them ‘silent majority’. Politicians are normally fairly well tuned into this - come elections it’s not the paid up party members that put a particular party / person in power, it’s the silent majority who are the most crucial in determining victory.

 

It’s long been known that just because some people are making a fuss, that doesn’t mean everyone agrees with that proposition. The BLM issue is a good example - large numbers of people I have spoken to are fed up with the way it’s being pushed in their face all the time. Lewis Hamilton’s actions in F1 although well intentioned has drawn considerable criticism from some I know for bringing politics into what is entertainment for them.

 

For everyone proudly telling the world they are not going to exhibitions I bet there are an equal number who are quite happy to go - it’s just they don’t feel the need to shout it from the rooftops or which to engage in long debates / arguments on the issue.
 

What is entirely possible is that you may see a change in the type of attendance at shows - possibly more family oriented than fine sale modellers - something which was already apparent at some shows based on the trailers present. Again using the politics analogy, one of the reason politicians usually indulge pensioners concerns at election time is they know such types are Reliable voters where as young people (who tend to make the most noise about issues) are less likely to turn that passion into votes. If the demographic changes (I.e. a city / town attracts lots of students / young people then politicians will try and tweak their offerings (or at least how they are presented) to interest this new and potentially bigger audience.

 

Ultimately the fallout from Covid will change many things - but just as going shopping  isn’t going to disappear post Covid (what and how people shop will), people are not going to stop attending exhibitions, concerts and plays to enjoy themselves. The challenge for model railway shows is to find ways of satisfying that demand going forward.

 

For what it’s worth I have NO intention of letting Covid get in the way of enjoying life on a permanent basis - as soon as I am able to do so visits to shows (and other things I like doing such as visiting heritage railways, museums, etc will be resumed. No-one lives forever so enjoy life while you have got it.....

 

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, Neil said:

 

I think it's dangerous to extrapolate from personal experience and come up with sweeping generalisations. To start with for 46000 (+) people it has been a death sentence, some of those were young and some considered fit. It comes across as a bit disrespectful to suggest their outcomes would have been better if they had been fitter. Some individuals have chronic underlying health issues which limit their potential fitness, some by virtue of age are at much increased risk. I imagine that many eighty year olds would love to be able to dial the clock back to forty but sadly time machines are further away than vaccines.

 

It attacks the lungs. I don't think anyone has denied that.

Good cardio fitness makes lungs work more efficiently.

How can it be disrespectful to suggest that better fitness can provide a benefit?

 

I am not suggesting everyone can work to improve their fitness & I never said they could. That was your assumption.

Many can...& don't. Every little helps; even walking to the corner shop instead of taking the car.

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15 minutes ago, Pete the Elaner said:

 

It attacks the lungs. I don't think anyone has denied that.

Good cardio fitness makes lungs work more efficiently.

How can it be disrespectful to suggest that better fitness can provide a benefit?

 

I am not suggesting everyone can work to improve their fitness & I never said they could. That was your assumption.

Many can...& don't. Every little helps; even walking to the corner shop instead of taking the car.

 

I stand by my criticism. Your initial contribution was insensitive. There was no attempt to qualify any of the assertions you made, one of which, 'Catching the virus is not a death sentence anyway' is plain wrong as for a significant number of people it has been. My daughter, wife and mother are all in high risk groups, they are as fit as they are able to be, none of them drive, they would be at significant risk if they caught the virus. Extra walks to the shops will not alter their underlying medical issues.

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Posted (edited)
6 hours ago, Phil Parker said:

 

I confess that the more I read here, the more I believe that the model railway show, along with any mass-participation event, in physical form, is dead and buried.

Its a good job Hornby didn't think like that in 1939 with 6231 Duchess of Atholl.

Where would be today ?

 

Strangely enough we are not much further, 6231 is still metal, and about to be released in a crisis... indeed the plastic one came out not much after the Brexit vote, I therefore blame Hornby’s 6231 for Covid, each time they release this model, the world turns upside down.

Edited by adb968008
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In the suvey, the last question is in my opinion the most difficult. While I put around February / March my real answer would be "when the incidence and transmission of Covid 19 has been reduced to a low level and maintained at that level for an extended period." Whether that requires a vaccine is a matter for debate, as is the period, though I would be looking at a couple of months at the least.

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I'm sure things will eventually come back - probably on a small scale first (village hall type shows, probably with exhibitors and traders drawn from the local area), then the larger ones may eventually reappear as confidence grows, even if not necessarily run by the same people in the same venues we used to know.

 

Whether that process takes 1, 2, 5, 10 or 20 years is another matter.

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One of the main reasons for attending exhibitions is to meet other people.

 

The main risk for contracting the virus is meeting other people.

 

I think I can see the problem.

 

Geoff Endacott

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, Phil Parker said:

 

I prefer to look at the numbers and these tell me that deaths are decreasing. Hospitalisations are decreasing. Extra testing finds lot of people who didn't know they were ill but are infected. This is a problem, but not for them and suggests that Covid is spread through more of the population than anyone thinks. If this is the case, and the aforementioned hospitalisations are down, it's not as bad as we have been told - I've read people claiming it has a 7% death toll of anyone infected on Twitter for example and that is plan wrong.

 

I wasted a load of time this morning trying to find a graph I've seen of deaths with significant events marked on it - BLM protests, crowded beaches, opening of pubs etc. each of which have been used to loudly predict the second wave that will lay millions to waste "in 2 weeks", and each of which have made no different to the downward trend of all the numbers. The reasons for this failure are many and varied - but the doom-mongers have leapt on their with their predictions but melted away when they didn't come true.

 

What I have worked out is that science has no part in this discussion, only emotion matters. It doesn't matter how safe we are, it how safe we feel we are that matters. If people don't feel safe then they won't go to a show.  It's better explained in this Times article someone pointed me at. Also, exhibition managers need to feel that they are safe from a sudden "local lockdown" that could see them suddenly have to keep the doors shut. You don't waste time organising an event unless you feel there is a very good chance it will go ahead.

 

All that fear, amply demonstrated on here, is why I'm not convinced we will ever see shows back. I hope I'm wrong, but if a large group of model railway enthusiasts are arguing for shows not to happen, it doesn't look positive does it?

No post I've read (apart from yours) has said "never", just "not yet", I think most of us expect some to restart in 2022 at worst and just perhaps the odd one towards the end of 2021. "Never again" requires an assumption that there won't be a vaccine, ever. OK, there's a chance there might not be but that's a big jump to make at this stage.

 

I don't think very many of us have written off attending large indoor gatherings forever, (I certainly haven't) just until there is a vaccine, and we've received it.

 

OK , it's outdoors, but looking at certain beaches in Dorset at weekends, there are loads of people who have either decided Covid-19 is (1) all over bar the shouting, (2) not as dangerous as the establishment have made out (3) it won't get them cos they are immortal, (4) they are happy to take their chances or (5) they haven't really thought about it and/or don't want to. Many will get away with it, others won't and it's unreasonable to assume that none of them are into model railways.:jester:

 

Does anybody really believe that world governments would have deliberately set in train what will probably become the biggest slump since the Wall Street Crash, for no good reason?

 

Even assuming a vaccine is developed, and can be widely administered, in the next 12-18 months I think it's pretty clear that 2020 and most of 2021 are already write-offs exhibition-wise. Quite aside from anything else, many are held in school premises which are likely to be barred from all but their core function for at least that period.

 

Ironically, when vaccination does start, expect quite a lot of people to become even more cautious, until they've had theirs. After all, who wants to be the last to catch a bullet when the war is ending?

 

John

 

  

 

 

Edited by Dunsignalling
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6 hours ago, GordonC said:

 

I had a look at the virtual exhibition that was hosted recently but found the delivered format frustrating being limited in hours, the live feed didn't make it easy to look around if you didn't happen to be looking there and then when it popped up and the content seemed limited.

 

 

I'd say all of your points could be disputed on very firm grounds and with facts but I'll not waste time doing so because you have entrenched beliefs.

 

3 hours ago, GordonC said:

 all that matters is pharma companies making money off it.

 

How many times have we tried to keep irrelevancies out of this topic?

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8 minutes ago, AY Mod said:

 

How many times have we tried to keep irrelevancies out of this topic?

and its the same people saying the same things.. obviously they have no modelling to do/no exhibition to organise!

 

Baz

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