What makes something valuable/rare.

[cypherman]

Hi all,

I have just seen an engine on Ebay go for what I considered 3 times it's worth. It made me think what make thing more or less valuable. The engine was a 1961 Triang/Hornby Baltic. It sold for £310.00 plus p+p. I personally would not have paid more than £100.00 for it. I do admit that it is quite a rare beastie, But is really that rare and valuable. Now this jogged my memory from pre Ebay days back to the dawn of time. IE about 40 years ago. I damaged the tender for my Wrenn West Country class Barnstable. Got in touch with various model shops to see about a replacement and all I got was that it was a very rare item and would be hard to find. One shop had one in and were asking £75.00 for it. So like all broke modellers I repaired the one I had and made do. That was until about 4 years ago when while looking on Ebay I took a chance and searched for one. Low and behold there were shed loads of them for sale. I got a mint condition tender for £20.00. Now this is 40 years later and if it was so valuable at the time why was it not now. Was it not really that rare to begin with. The only reason that I can think of is that things have become easier to find and that things that were considered rare 40 years ago were not actually that rare, Just that there was no way to get them out there for sale. On the other hand the Baltic that sold 40 years ago it is quite probable that no one would have taken a second look at it.

So the question I have  is has the internet made thing more accessible for railway modellers and has that changed the way we look at what was once considered rare. And accordingly altered the prices we pay.

Just something to ponder.

Edited July 27, 2020 by cypherman

[AY Mod]

11 minutes ago, cypherman said:

Was it not really that rare to begin with.

 

It'll be slightly rarer now but with fewer people considering one as essential or desirable as the products in the marketplace have continued to improve leaving them further behind in quality terms plus the number of modellers to who it would be desirable or essential is now smaller.

 

If anything the age of the web has made products that are more essential or desirable increase in value more as it's easier to reach a wider market.

[Ian Simpson]

I think you're right that eBay has made it easier to judge the rarity of an item coming up for sale.

My own yard stick: if an model railway example turns up on worldwide eBay once a month, it's Uncommon;

                                  if it turns up once a quarter, then it's Rare;

                                  if it only turns up once a year, it's Very Rare.

[Oldddudders]

Silly terms like rare and valuable are there for the gullible, because truly rare and valuable items speak for themselves, at least to those who understand that part of the market. And the market still decides value - he who bids highest wins.

 

I suspect 99% of RMwebbers would baulk at paying £1 for a 1961 Tri-ang baltic. But to the other 1% it is a true gem in its antiquity, and worth every penny of their bid. 

[Andy Hayter]

Agreeing totally with what has gone before, the simple answer to your question is supply and demand.

 

In the 70s and 80s the only rtr West Country in town was the Hornby one.  Anyone modelling Th Southern would be likely to want one.  Come the late 90s and on, a number of versions of West Country and light pacifics have been released.  These have vastly superseded the original model and so modellers have upgraded and sold on their old models.  So demand has fallen but supply has increased.  This is of course facilitated by eBay.  

 

The only people now really interested in the old model will be those heavily cash strapped or the collector and the collector will only really be interested in mint boxed condition.  There perhaps there might be a profit to be made.

[cypherman]

I must be one of those 1% then. I would have gladly paid up to £100.00 for that model as it was virtually pristine. But not that well and truly over the top £310.00. But then again I have a huge love for older engines as can be seen by my other posts. I mean one of my favourite You tube posters is Oscar Paisley.

[Joseph_Pestell]

53 minutes ago, cypherman said:

Hi all,

I have just seen an engine on Ebay go for what I considered 3 times it's worth. It made me think what make thing more or less valuable. The engine was a 1961 Triang/Hornby Baltic. It sold for £310.00 plus p+p. I personally would not have paid more than £100.00 for it. I do admit that it is quite a rare beastie, But is really that rare and valuable. Now this jogged my memory from pre Ebay days back to the dawn of time. IE about 40 years ago. I damaged the tender for my Wrenn West Country class Barnstable. Got in touch with various model shops to see about a replacement and all I got was that it was a very rare item and would be hard to find. One shop had one in and were asking £75.00 for it. So like all broke modellers I repaired the one I had and made do. That was until about 4 years ago when while looking on Ebay I took a chance and searched for one. Low and behold there were shed loads of them for sale. I got a mint condition tender for £20.00. Now this is 40 years later and if it was so valuable at the time why was it not now. Was it not really that rare to begin with. The only reason that I can think of is that things have become easier to find and that things that were considered rare 40 years ago were not actually that rare, Just that there was no way to get them out there for sale. On the other hand the Baltic that sold 40 years ago it is quite probable that no one would have taken a second look at it.

So the question I have  is has the internet made thing more accessible for railway modellers and has that changed the way we look at what was once considered rare. And accordingly altered the prices we pay.

Just something to ponder.

 

Rarity and value only have a very tenuous link.

 

If something is rare enough, few people know about it and therefore the number of people who want it will be much reduced. So value on the open market will be low.

 

The Baltic was made for the overseas market. That was never big for Triang. Very few would have been sold here. So they will be rare here; few sold initially and many probably in a bin long ago.

It could be that there are many more lying in lofts abroad.

 

A friend of my father's, despite dealing quite a lot in various collectibles, could never understand why old Bradshaw's could be valuable: "they were printed in their thousands". Yes, but they were poorly bound as only intended to last a month and then binned when the new edition arrived. So a Bradshaw in good condition is a relatively rare item.

[andyman7]

1 hour ago, Joseph_Pestell said:

 

Rarity and value only have a very tenuous link.

 

If something is rare enough, few people know about it and therefore the number of people who want it will be much reduced. So value on the open market will be low.

 

The Baltic was made for the overseas market. That was never big for Triang. Very few would have been sold here. So they will be rare here; few sold initially and many probably in a bin long ago.

It could be that there are many more lying in lofts abroad.

 

A friend of my father's, despite dealing quite a lot in various collectibles, could never understand why old Bradshaw's could be valuable: "they were printed in their thousands". Yes, but they were poorly bound as only intended to last a month and then binned when the new edition arrived. So a Bradshaw in good condition is a relatively rare item.

Absolutely. The term 'rare' is grievously misused to imply 'in demand'. Many objects are rare in that they re either unique or scarce, but very few have value. Conversely, many items that are not actuallt rare are valuable. 

Back in the 1980s I was interested in 60s records and often bought original copies. In those days they were secondhand record. Now many of them fetch high prices as 'rare originals'. 1960s Beatles albums were pressed in their millions - many were played to death but many survive, but the modern day demand is such that in excellent condition they can fetch hundreds of pounds. However, if you have the money, you can buy one today. That is not 'rare'; it is 'valuable'. However there are many obscure LPs that nominally have a value in hundreds or thousands of pounds but you could wait years to find a copy come up for sale. That is rare and valuable.

These things are also fashion items - they go up and down in price. Back in the 1980s if you wanted an RTR rebuilt West Country the HD/Wrenn model was the only show in town so values were mainatined. Nowadays we have had 20 years of Hornby superdetail models, the Wrenn/HD issue is of interest only to a much diminished audience and supply outstrips demand = prices fall, except for the very best unused perfect boxed examples with all paperwork, tags and packing - and the value of those is only sustained because even amongst the diminished pool of collectors, such specimens represent the ultimate upgrade model.

As for the Baltic tank, the market decides the price. This week it was £310. Next week (or month, or year) it may £100, or whatever you are willing to pay.

[Northmoor]

25 minutes ago, andyman7 said:

As for the Baltic tank, the market decides the price. This week it was £310. Next week (or month, or year) it may £100, or whatever you are willing to pay.

 

This is the crucial point misunderstood by many, many sellers of things they think are "worth a lot of money"; the selling price for high-demand/high supply items is not the same as for rare items.  The poster's Ebay Auction example probably went something like this:

• There may be five people seeking an item X that is for sale.  Three won't offer more than £100, while two decide that to them, X is worth £300; one decides that they are prepared to pay an extra £10 and buys the item. 
• Another X comes up for sale a week later, the losing bidder still has the same top price in mind, but the three same other bidders from before are all still only prepared to bid £100.  The purchaser pays just over £100.

However, so many sellers of almost anything old - regardless of whether it's collectible or not - see the above and are convinced that an X is worth £300+.  Except it isn't, because only two people were prepared to pay that and they now both have one.  The remaining market places a value of about £100 on X.

 

You see this all the time at Swapmeets, where the sellers are clearly carting the same old stuff (like 1970s/80s Hornby stuff that was made by the ship-load) around the country all year, seeking out that last couple of quid rather than keeping up turnover and selling off at achievable prices.  These stallholders can usually be heard complaining about how bad business is and no-one is buying anything.

[polybear]

Easy one this.

Rare = not many made, or not many survive.

Valuable = lots of desperate people chasing after few examples (condition being a consideration here), and are prepared to sell their soul to get it.

[Happy Hippo]

1 hour ago, polybear said:

Easy one this.

Rare = not many made, or not many survive.

Valuable = lots of desperate people chasing after few examples (condition being a consideration here), and are prepared to sell their soul to get it.

Cake is not a rarity or valuable, but I spend a lot on money on it.

[Nearholmer]

1 hour ago, Northmoor said:

You see this all the time at Swapmeets, where the sellers are clearly carting the same old stuff (like 1970s/80s Hornby stuff that was made by the ship-load) around the country all year, seeking out that last couple of quid rather than keeping up turnover and selling off at achievable prices.  These stallholders can usually be heard complaining about how bad business is and no-one is buying anything.

I find this an interesting “human psychology” phenomenon, with some secondhand dealers clearly “turnover focused” and accepting lower margins, while others are very clearly focused on  “maximising return on each individual item” .

 

I’d love to have a magic lens on their respective ledgers, because either type may be “winning” in the sense of unit profit per hour of effort invested or even in terms of profit per pound “averagely tied up in stock”.

 

To me, the few who are really smart are those who manage to talk-up the market by spotting micro-variations in product, and turning each micro-variation into a “must have” in its own right (Wrenn seems to be fertile ground for this), and those who create a niche for themselves dealing in only the genuinely very rare, or the genuinely in exceptionally good condition (the real low-volume, high-unit-price men, who sometimes have a particular buyer in mind when they take an item into stock).

 

 

 

Edited July 27, 2020 by Nearholmer

[The Johnster]

2 hours ago, andyman7 said:

1960s Beatles albums were pressed in their millions - many were played to death but many survive, but the modern day demand is such that in excellent condition they can fetch hundreds of pounds. However, if you have the money, you can buy one today. That is not 'rare'; it is 'valuable'

It might or might not be rare, but it is not valuable, it is expensive.

 

It is all to do with perception.  Market price is ultimately governed by the iron and immutable laws of economics, which are merciless and without pity.  But you can sell for a higher price or buy for a lower price if you can alter the buyer's or seller's respective perception of the situation.  A seller is more likely to be able to do this in a sellers market, and a buyer more likely. well, you get the picture.

 

This altering of buyer's, seller's, indeed the populace at large's, perception of what they think a market price should be is the fundamentally mendacious activity of marketing.  It pervades and obstructs the correct working of a free market subject to the laws of supply and demand.  It is predicated on an individual's, or general, perception of an item's value, or the perception of those taking part in the auction or whatever form the transaction is taking,

 

The word value has, therefore, such a subjective element to it's meaning as to be at best irrelevant and at worse deceptive when used in describing an item in a transaction.  What the item is worth is up to the buyer; it is worth what he/she is willing to pay for it, no more.  If the buyer pays less than he is willing to for an item, he claims to have got it at 'a good price' or 'a fair price', but if he pays significantly less, he claims to have had a 'bargain.  None of which as any real meaning; the descriptions of prices as good or fair are subjective and 'bargain' simply means the final arrangement between buyer and seller; they make a bargain between them and the deal is concluded.

 

Caveat Emptor, so there is an established legal framework in which misrepresentation and incorrect use of language to create an impression of an item that will command the highest price.  So long as the vendor does not resort to outright deception all sorts of trickery is fair game, including describing items as 'rare' and giving dodgy descriptions of their condition.  My default is to regard anyone who describes and item for sale using terms such as 'rare' 'highly sought' 'collector's piece' and similar is that they are 'at it'; I can usually find the same thing much cheaper down the page.  £300 for a Triang Baltic, or for that matter a Triang anything, even in mint condition, is a lot more than I would pay, and so is £100, but it is worth £300 to whoever bought it and £100 to Joseph Pestell as he himself has said.  A buyer pays no more than he/she thinks an item is worth assuming they can afford it, so go away happy, as does the seller.

[wombatofludham]

What makes something rare on TatBay? A mate in the boozer said he saw something like it on Selling Granny in the Attic on daytime telly and the bloke who looks like he's been creosoted said it was rare.

What makes something valuable on TatBay? Two idiots incapable of surfing the 'net desperate to bid on something that is sold out in the box-shifters but still available in smaller shops.

There again I'm a misanthropic cynic.  To be serious for a moment, I fully concur that on-line auctions have convinced far too many that "rare" = "valuable" when it patently doesn't.  Something can be as rare as unicorn dung but be so undesirable it will go for pennies, whereas something could be widely available, just not in enough numbers to satisfy demand and prices skyrocket (the first edition Hornby Intercity DVT used to fetch stupid money, but now Hornby have announced a second run, prices will probably settle down again).

To be honest, having just dissed online auctions, so long as you don't focus on individual transactions but look at trends, sites like TatBay can provide useful indications into likely demand for a second run or trends for future models.  It is almost the purest form of free market relatively devoid of marketing influences and the other skews I was taught about when studying Economics. Availability and average sales prices could, if analysed over time, give some good pointers towards potential second issues of popular models, I can't help thinking the decision to re-issue the Intercity Mk3 DVT after some very heroic sales prices might have had at least some input from TatBay watchers.

[The Johnster]

My first round of applause, from Northmoor, thank you sir, I shall take a bow...

[PatB]

There was a point, a few years ago now, when Wrenn locos were, apparently, made from solid gold. Prices seem to have come off a bit now, and seem to be sort of reasonable for the nicely engineered and robust, though rather basic, models that they are.

 

An interesting case I saw recently involved some lots of American 0-27 tinplate track that came up on Ebay from an Australian seller. Now, 0-27 tinplate track is definitely not rare, but it doesn't come up in Oz that often, so anyone wanting any usually has to pay swingeing postal charges from the US, which can easily amount to several multiples of the actual purchase price. This stuff was in OK condition. Not rubbish, but nothing special. The first two lots became the subject of a bidding war between two bidders and went for prices that were at least double what the same items would have cost to buy from the US (including shipping). Which struck me as a bit mad. Then the third lot went for roughly what it would have cost out of the US, which seemed quite a bit more sensible but probably disappointed the seller a little.

[tomparryharry]

In this age of small production runs, things considered 'rare' are becoming less of an issue. With the rise of greater communication, people seeing that they can 'turn a profit' gives rise to either more of the same, or something similar. 

 

Portescap motors are an excellent example. Currently going through 'Bay for healthy values, a click on the keypad brings you to  N20 motors, with a gearbox, for less than a fifth of the original Swiss mechanism. 

 

Rare can also mean 'half baked'. Seeing some values  which can and do reach silly values. A certain vendor will sell you a Samhongsa pannier, which, by today's standards, is pretty crude. For the same monetary value, you can buy a Baccy pannier, and have enough change for another couple. 

 

Or, a Hornby Prairie, or the upcoming mogul. Things to ponder....

[andyman7]

16 hours ago, The Johnster said:

It might or might not be rare, but it is not valuable, it is expensive.

 

It is all to do with perception.  Market price is ultimately governed by the iron and immutable laws of economics, which are merciless and without pity.  But you can sell for a higher price or buy for a lower price if you can alter the buyer's or seller's respective perception of the situation.  A seller is more likely to be able to do this in a sellers market, and a buyer more likely. well, you get the picture.

 

This altering of buyer's, seller's, indeed the populace at large's, perception of what they think a market price should be is the fundamentally mendacious activity of marketing.  It pervades and obstructs the correct working of a free market subject to the laws of supply and demand.  It is predicated on an individual's, or general, perception of an item's value, or the perception of those taking part in the auction or whatever form the transaction is taking,

 

The word value has, therefore, such a subjective element to it's meaning as to be at best irrelevant and at worse deceptive when used in describing an item in a transaction.  

I agree regarding the use of the term in a transaction - but original Beatlles albums have a worldwide, long term sustained market across the generations that drives their value - so whatever subjectivity can be ascribed to the term, they are not just expensive, they are valuable in the sense that buyers, collectors and the market consistently highly value them.

[RJS1977]

22 hours ago, Happy Hippo said:

Cake is not a rarity or valuable, but I spend a lot on money on it.

 

It may not be rare when you go into the shop, but it is after you've come out...  ;-)

[Chris M]

Some years ago a seller described an item as rare. A potential buyer sent the question “why do you say it is rare?” The reply was “it’s the only one I’ve got”.

 

The value of an item at any auction is set by whether there is more than one person interested and if so just how important it is for potential buyers to have that item at that time.  I have yet to pay over the odds for anything at auction but I might if I something came up that I really really wanted.

[Northmoor]

7 minutes ago, Chris M said:

Some years ago a seller described an item as rare. A potential buyer sent the question “why do you say it is rare?” The reply was “it’s the only one I’ve got”.

 

I was once at a charity auction of motorsport memorabilia where the idiot auctioneer described a pair of items as, "Absolutely unique, there's only two of them".

[RJS1977]

2 minutes ago, Northmoor said:

I was once at a charity auction of motorsport memorabilia where the idiot auctioneer described a pair of items as, "Absolutely unique, there's only two of them".

 

"Are they identical?"

"Yes, but that one's nowhere near as identical as this one is...."

[laurenceb]

I have to say that some of the stuff on e bay labled RARE I can only hope it stays that way

[melmerby]

11 minutes ago, laurenceb said:

I have to say that some of the stuff on e bay labled RARE I can only hope it stays that way

Cue Gosturde

[laurenceb]

I was thinking more of the weathered stuff but he wil do