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Passenger numbers after lockdown easing: your experiences


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The official figures will of course be released in time, but yesterday and today were the first days since March that I've felt positive about passengers returning to the railway in significant numbers.

 

My experience is only for the Thameslink route (Brighton and Sutton parts), which was helped by the nice weather and London and Brighton being on the route, but the main take home for me is that it seems the biggest hurdle has been overcome: people are not afraid to use trains and don't see them as mobile Petri dishes.  Many trains throughout Friday morning with leisure travellers looked like rush hour commuter trains, with people standing shoulder-to-shoulder.  There were equally healthy loadings today. 

 

My current observations on the Thameslink route, regarding the three main passenger flows, are:

 

  • Leisure travel looks to be returning to pre-pandemic levels;
  • Airport travel would seem to be growing on a level proportional to the increase in flights.  Still a long way to go with this of course, but it's looking good (Luton Airport more than Gatwick Airport); 
  • Commuter travel still at very low levels, but I appreciate September will be the first month to see what happens with this, and into next year will be required no doubt, as some firms have told staff there will be no return to the office until early 2021.

 

I'd be interested in other people's passenger loading experiences on other routes, while we wait for the official figures!

 

I appreciate some might not be happy about such high loading levels at the current time, but I'd appreciate it if this thread could just be used to discuss current loading observations.

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9 hours ago, BR(S) said:

 Many trains throughout Friday morning with leisure travellers looked like rush hour commuter trains, with people standing shoulder-to-shoulder.  There were equally healthy loadings today. 

 

 

 

 

Do you not mean unhealthy loadings?

Bernard

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13 hours ago, BR(S) said:

The official figures will of course be released in time, but yesterday and today were the first days since March that I've felt positive about passengers returning to the railway in significant numbers.

 

My experience is only for the Thameslink route (Brighton and Sutton parts), which was helped by the nice weather and London and Brighton being on the route, 

 

Leisure travel looks to be returning to pre-pandemic levels;

 

Far too early to tell.

 

Without hot weather driving people out to beaches or other areas to escape the concrete jungle will they still use transit in huge numbers?  Won't really know for likely another month.

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15 hours ago, BR(S) said:

I appreciate some might not be happy about such high loading levels at the current time, but I'd appreciate it if this thread could just be used to discuss current loading observations.

 

I'd appreciate it if more folk could just, for a second,  try and get their heads around the seriousness of the present situation and then follow the guidelines, ( and I don't mean just stick a mask on and think that that is all that you need to do). 

 

I really sorry, but at present, until a proper grip has been got on the present lurgy, I don't see the overcrowding of trains as anything to celebrate.

  

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I’ve just been out and about, around Ferry Meadows. From what I can see, a high proportion of people, well over 50%, are losing all patience with “social distancing”.

 

The station car park shows that commuter traffic is increasing, although well below previous levels; No 1 Son-in-Law tells me that he will not resume commuting, having largely converted their business (industrial training) to a more dispersed model. No 1 Son tells me HIS web design company are doing a lot of new business on this front. 

 

Bus passenger traffic seems to be almost non-existent, presumably because most of the town centre is closed. 

 

The pub trade is heading for total collapse. Local houses are reporting trade typically 15-25% of normal, and from casual observation I don’t doubt it. Quite a few local pubs and restaurant chains are being allowed to fall into outright disrepair. 

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Friday was lots of day trippers, big groups of teens going shopping etc, face coverings fairly universally applied but worn in such way as to be effectively useless.

 

As before, very few actual key workers using the trains though.

 

I reckon a ban on non essential travel again is not beyond a possibility.

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Based on my own travels, demand is topsy-turvey. Peak trains to city centres have few on them, but weekend, midday trains are busier. Trains to the seaside get busy on hot days. The old peak is not the new peak and demand patterns are turned on their head.

 

The general lockdown was a very blunt tool used in the early days when the behaviour of the virus was litle understood. Unfortunately it has translated into blind fear/panic/paralysis, but a general ban on travel/lockdown really is a nuclear option now. If you can work from home or are retired, staying in and limiting contact seem reaosnable especially if you are in a more vulnerable group. If you are younger, at tiny risk of the virus and your life and employment chances are being destroyed the perspective is quite different. 

 

Infections have ticked up a bit - but - so far - not deaths; and there is a dilemma here because the more younger people that contract (with no - or mild - symptoms) this disease, the more everyone becomes better protected through general resistence in the population. The more everyone is made to hide under their beds at the merest sniff of the disease, the more everyone remains continually vulnerable.

 

Statistically, the two biggest causes of infections are a) visiting someone infected and b) being visted by someone infected. But every time we see busy beaches and people on trains the shouts go up 'Second wave! Hide! Stay indoors!' and unfortunately that is simply not a sustainable option for a disease that little affects the under 50s. 

 

Use of public transport has been severely affected by the pandemic and it will suppress numbers I suspect for years. Many people will understandably avoid it, but for those that are willing to go out and about and move around ways need to be found to allow this to continue.

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It was actually, the first us train crew and I suspect everyone else for that matter knew about it was when Boris suddenly announced it with immediate effect a couple of weeks ago. 

 

One other thing I have noticed, despite the huge increase in numbers, station facilities such as coffee shops, WHSmiths, indeed anywhere other than rip off Selecta type vending machines to get a drink and an extraordinarily over priced crossiant or burger remain firmly shut which is annoying. 

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I used GWR from Redhill to Guildford and back yesterday. Plenty of spare groups of seats but was busier than past observations when seeing the trains go past. 

 

Thameslink services through Redhill are very quiet but being 12 cars, not really a surprise. I suspect those that go down the Brighton mainline to the coast are much busier on sunny days though.

 

All the food places and Smiths shut at Guildford station.

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One measure I use, is the number and nature of enquiries for work I receive. On that basis, actual productive work is definitely reviving, but logistics (especially international travel) are a major constraint. Use of public transport, including taxis and other than by air where no option exists, has almost completely ceased in the petrochemical sector.

 

Caravans and motorhomes are out and about in some numbers. 

 

 

 

 

 

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3 hours ago, andyman7 said:

...

 

The general lockdown was a very blunt tool used in the early days when the behaviour of the virus was litle understood...

 

Quote

 

Infections have ticked up a bit - but - so far - not deaths; and there is a dilemma here because the more younger people that contract (with no - or mild - symptoms) this disease, the more everyone becomes better protected through general resistence in the population. The more everyone is made to hide under their beds at the merest sniff of the disease, the more everyone remains continually vulnerable.

...

 

I agree with much of what you say, but a big current problem, showing how little we understand about this particular virus, is that it looks like antibodies in the systems of those who have had it only remain for a few months. Thus we can't assume better protection through lots of people having had the virus and don't yet know what severity of attack someone re-infected is likely to have.

 

Simon

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3 hours ago, John M Upton said:

It was actually, the first us train crew and I suspect everyone else for that matter knew about it was when Boris suddenly announced it with immediate effect a couple of weeks ago. 

 

Yes, I must have slept through that announcement .......... never mind, it sounds like Boris is considering locking-down us over fifties now ............................................................ 

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I have been catching the train to work and back all through this pandemic , passenger numbers were next to nothing , with car parks at Pengam etc..that once were full with commuters to Cardiff now empty , since the relaxing of the lock down this has remained virtually the same , either people are using their cars or still working from home , the trains have now been lengthened to 4 car units in the last few weeks to account for social distancing , with seats now out of use and mandatory face coverings . Whilst the trains still  remain for the use of key workers and essential travel only , along with myself and 3 - 5 people daily use it for this purpose , the rest of the time it is used by teenagers and kids with bikes , drinking  etc... to travel around on with no restrictions in place  ( masks etc... ) guards just let them travel . The stickers on the platforms about staying 2 meters apart are ripped up , plastic signs are ripped down , seat covers for out of use seating are removed , thrown around  , bottles of drink  rolling around , so whist i adhere to the rules , seems most others disregard everything , the only people i can blame are the youngsters for all this , so  it is possible it is the youngsters that are spreading the virus around without any care or thought for anyone else , so a ban on non essential travel would be welcome but how enforceable it would be remains as nearly 5 months of this nothing as yet has been done to stop non essential travel so far .

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4 hours ago, andyman7 said:

Infections have ticked up a bit - but - so far - not deaths; and there is a dilemma here because the more younger people that contract (with no - or mild - symptoms) this disease, the more everyone becomes better protected through general resistence in the population.

 

The real dilemma is that we simply don't yet know the true cost of catching Covid.

 

For example, this past week a study out of Germany indicates that those who catch Covid suffer varying levels of heart damage when they are imaged weeks after recovering (including those who don't get admitted to hospital).

 

Whether that heals with time, or is permanent, isn't known yet.  Just as we don't know what other possible side effects may show up later.

 

4 hours ago, andyman7 said:

But every time we see busy beaches and people on trains the shouts go up 'Second wave! Hide! Stay indoors!' and unfortunately that is simply not a sustainable option for a disease that little affects the under 50s.

 

Some people under 50 are dying from Covid, so the "little affects" I guess depends on whether you have the misfortune of being a relative/friend of one of those people.

 

But you are correct that the media (and some governments) have been irresponsible - the biggest danger at this point seems to be indoors (which includes trains), but outdoors - like beaches - are by most measures low risk and thus we shouldn't be vilifying those doing one of the few safe activities at the moment.

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13 minutes ago, Wickham Green too said:

Yes, I must have slept through that announcement .......... never mind, it sounds like Boris is considering locking-down us over fifties now ............................................................ 

needs to lockdown the teenagers ! as probably in most areas they are becoming out of control , just look at the likes for Cardiff bay to see what is happening , they should stop non essential  travel to the likes of Barry  , when a family arrive at a station deny them travel  simple as .

 

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I guess numbers will vary so much depending on the local demographics , people working from home etc. I travelled from Chelmsford to Canary Wharf  A couple of times  mid week Off peak , last week, I was slightly shocked how few people were travelling. In general face mask wearing was the norm with the odd exception, with plenty of staff on the overground the message was getting across really well visually, the jubilee line was generally well observed given how few staff were about, and the DLR not quite so good , only one notice on each platform and none on the trains... more about distancing, but then perhaps their view was that the DLR poses a lower risk .?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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If I didn't work on it, I'd avoid it. Sensible people and stupid people mixing, doesn't go well. Endless confrontation, abuse, numbers are not as high as they should be but prob around 75% in my area. Official figures are based on ticket sales so probably won't be anywhere near accurate in some areas as most are travelling free as staff are still distancing themselves and not carrying out revenue checks.

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5 hours ago, andyman7 said:

a disease that little affects the under 50s

Can you really say that? My wife is 40, she had the virus in March, just avoided hospital and is still not fully recovered. This virus affects any age and those who think it doesn’t are going to get a very nasty shock 

 

Andi

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1 hour ago, mdvle said:

 

Some people under 50 are dying from Covid, so the "little affects" I guess depends on whether you have the misfortune of being a relative/friend of one of those people.

 

 

15 minutes ago, Dagworth said:

Can you really say that? My wife is 40, she had the virus in March, just avoided hospital and is still not fully recovered. This virus affects any age and those who think it doesn’t are going to get a very nasty shock 

 

 

Of course, if you (or a loved one) are badly affected the statistics are meaningless. I absolutely agree that it cannot be ignored. But short term measures auch as lockdowns cannot be repeated ad infinitim or the other effects over time are much worse. We haven't yet begin to see excess cancer deaths because of late diagnosis, but they will happen. And there are children whose life chances are being irrevocably harmed due to loss of education and structures, especially if they are vulnerable.

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With thanks to the posters who didn't ignore my last paragraph and have given their experience of passenger numbers! 

 

I'd appreciate more over the coming weeks as we enter August and the first day tomorrow of the "back to work" directive. Mid-September will no doubt be the time for an increase of commuters, though the railway is unlikely to again see the packed peak trains of pre-March 2020. At the moment, people travelling to work 2 or 3 days a week with the rest of the time working from home seems to be the way it'll go, but who knows?

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11 hours ago, bazjones1711 said:

a ban on non essential travel would be welcome but how enforceable it would be remains as nearly 5 months of this nothing as yet has been done to stop non essential travel so far .

 

The problem being how is 'essential travel' (or indeed 'necessary travel', as the message now seems to be) defined ? I did not travel on a train, or a bus, from the 18th March until the 6th July, when I made a 400 mile trip to visit my 90 year old mother, who lives alone and who has seen every single thing she did to keep active and alert cancelled. In my opinion that journey was absolutely essential, but on the other hand I am not a key worker nor was I conveying medicine or other vital supplies. 

 

On that trip every train I used, even the Underground, was extremely quiet and there was no problem maintaining social distancing at any stage. However, I cannot help but feel very concerned about how the rail industry can keep on providing services with so little revenue coming in (a problem not unique to the railway of course); At some point does the damage to the overall population caused by economic collapse outweigh that from the virus ?

 

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15 minutes ago, caradoc said:

 

The problem being how is 'essential travel' (or indeed 'necessary travel', as the message now seems to be) defined ? I did not travel on a train, or a bus, from the 18th March until the 6th July, when I made a 400 mile trip to visit my 90 year old mother, who lives alone and who has seen every single thing she did to keep active and alert cancelled. In my opinion that journey was absolutely essential, but on the other hand I am not a key worker nor was I conveying medicine or other vital supplies. 

 

On that trip every train I used, even the Underground, was extremely quiet and there was no problem maintaining social distancing at any stage. However, I cannot help but feel very concerned about how the rail industry can keep on providing services with so little revenue coming in (a problem not unique to the railway of course); At some point does the damage to the overall population caused by economic collapse outweigh that from the virus ?

 

The simple answer to that question is no.

Not in a free civilised society where the first duty of the government should be to protect its citizens.

I fear that this topic is becoming political. Not surprising given the provocative attitude taken by the OP in attempting to restrict open discussion. The harder the government clamp down the shorter the period of pain.

I must say I am impressed by London North Western in keeping people up to date with travel information. I have not been on a train or any other form of public transport since mid March but I do appreciate being kept informed. I like the latest initiative of listing the social distancing available on trains at different times of the day. 

The original slogan of stay at home, save lives seems pretty clear and sensible to me. 

I do find it interesting to see those who demand the right to exploit people for profit and those who are willing to act in the public interest. I will support my local establishments more in future rather than certain large chains.

Bernard

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Genuine info about % occupancy of train in different places, at different times of day, would be a useful tool to help one make decisions, so this thread has some potential, and near-live info from TOCs a lot of potential (LM are good at this, and Virgin WC used to be really good at it).

 

As to the balance between restrictions on our lives in order to control the spread of the plague and ‘normality’ in order to control the spread of unemployment, disrupted educations, and general economic and social dislocation, that’s what it is: a balance, and a ruddy difficult one to strike. It’s the sort of thing that can only got perfectly right in hindsight.


Discussing it in all or nothing, right or wrong, absolutist terms misses the point completely, and risks descent Into the sort of politicised madness that afflicts the USA.

 

 

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