Railway Upgrade Plan after Covid?

[martin_wynne]

Thousands of jobs lost; thousands of folks working from home permanently; office districts deserted; High Street shopping abandoned; country in debt after lockdown costs. Where does it leave the RUP (and HS2) traffic projections:

 

 https://fast.wistia.net/embed/iframe/bzvre7n5h8

 

They will be needing new Goods Sheds for the Amazon delivery trains. When was the last new Goods Shed built?

 

Martin.

Edited August 28, 2020 by martin_wynne

[gordon s]

Not sure about the revised sleeper lengths.

 

Does this mean new track standards?......

[Metr0Land]

35 minutes ago, martin_wynne said:

 

They will be needing new Goods Sheds for the Amazon delivery trains. When was the last new Goods Shed built?

 

Martin.

 

PRDC Willesden?

[Joseph_Pestell]

46 minutes ago, martin_wynne said:

Thousands of jobs lost; thousands of folks working from home permanently; office districts deserted; High Street shopping abandoned; country in debt after lockdown costs. Where does it leave the RUP (and HS2) traffic projections:

 

 https://fast.wistia.net/embed/iframe/bzvre7n5h8

 

They will be needing new Goods Sheds for the Amazon delivery trains. When was the last new Goods Shed built?

 

Martin.

 

Just like those of us trying to run small businesses, any sort of forecasting and planning is pretty much impossible until we are further through the current Covid crisis.

[Bernard Lamb]

22 hours ago, martin_wynne said:

Thousands of jobs lost; thousands of folks working from home permanently; office districts deserted; High Street shopping abandoned; country in debt after lockdown costs. Where does it leave the RUP (and HS2) traffic projections:

 

 https://fast.wistia.net/embed/iframe/bzvre7n5h8

 

They will be needing new Goods Sheds for the Amazon delivery trains. When was the last new Goods Shed built?

 

Martin.

Video will not run so cannot comment on it.

Exactly where they were. There is no change in the long term population growth forecasts. Traffic patterns might well alter and incentives will need to be introduced to encourage people and freight to use the rail system. Not sure if you are being pessimistic or just trying to wind people up.

Bernard

[TheQ]

Everyone is panicking about reduced traffic,  but ...

Until schools are all back,  many parents will be choosing to WFH , no one will know what effect that is having.  

Until there is a vaccination many will still WFM, 

 

Undoubtedly many companies particularly in London and other big cities where office space is expensive, have realized that they can save a lot of money by people partially WFH,  and hot desking it, say for one day a week at work.   This will reduce numbers travelling. 

 

As for the railway upgrade,  it should happen,  when you have a major recession as we are facing, then that's when you should do it, Creating employment at a time when labour and materials are comparatively cheap. 

 

However,  when I see things like the Ely junction upgrade is being updated reviewed expanded , the cost will go way up and take much longer to happen. That sort of approach, gold plating the plans, ultimately means it might not happen.

[martin_wynne]

24 minutes ago, Bernard Lamb said:

 Not sure if you are being pessimistic or just trying to wind people up.

 

 

Neither. Just asking the question. The events of the last 6 months have surely caused some rethinking.

 

Martin.

[Joseph_Pestell]

45 minutes ago, martin_wynne said:

 

Neither. Just asking the question. The events of the last 6 months have surely caused some rethinking.

 

Martin.

 

Sadly, not much evidence of any "thinking" even with regard to the short term, never mind the longer term

 

I learned on Wednesday that ambulance crews are still not tested for the virus - unless and until they are feeling unwell. A bit late then!

[mdvle]

6 hours ago, Bernard Lamb said:

Video will not run so cannot comment on it.

Exactly where they were. There is no change in the long term population growth forecasts. Traffic patterns might well alter and incentives will need to be introduced to encourage people and freight to use the rail system. Not sure if you are being pessimistic or just trying to wind people up.

Bernard

 

Video has nothing to do with posters original post - it is an old NR video about all the upgrades they are doing.

[mdvle]

On 28/08/2020 at 03:46, martin_wynne said:

Thousands of jobs lost; thousands of folks working from home permanently; office districts deserted; High Street shopping abandoned; country in debt after lockdown costs. Where does it leave the RUP (and HS2) traffic projections:

 

For the last 6 months there have been an abundance of posts, on social media / traditional media / and forums like this, all predicting how Covid has forever changed the world - and usually it is to fit the authors preconceived notions.

 

Most of these predictions also contradict each other so it is a fair guess that most of them are at best wishful thinking but more likely just plain wrong.

 

We simply don't know how things will change, and won't know for another 5 years probably.

 

But to cover some of your points.

 

Thousands of jobs lost - yes, but a reasonable assumption that at some point those people will find work again.  It will be a rough couple of years, but that is true whether a pandemic or a regular recession.

 

thousands of folks working from home permanently - maybe.  Just wait until it becomes obvious that those who do go into the office and interact/network with others start getting the promotions and better pay increases to see many/most of them flood back into the offices at least part time.  Humans are for the most part social creatures and a lot of our interactions aren't optimal on phones or video conferences.

 

High Street shopping abandoned - not sure what this has to do with much given it has been happening for the last 20 or so years.  That said shopping where you go between shops outdoors will (for now at least) be a lot safer than an indoor shopping mall so there may be a case for a return to the high street - not that the public will do it necessarily.

 

debt - every country is in debt, and so it won't be that big a deal unless politicians make it a big deal to force through some other agenda.

 

HS2 - well, at the moment it is a source of good paying jobs that help keep people employed both directly and indirectly.  But more generally the UK population will still be increasing and people are going to stop travelling, so it will be things like HS2 or more motorways.

 

Really though, the future can somewhat be predicted by how quickly many have returned to at least some "normal" things already - the packed beaches and tourist areas on warm days, the people already travelling again out the UK.  Give it another year and more of this return to normal will happen as Covid fatigue sets in with perhaps occasional returns to restrictions during spikes.

 

On 28/08/2020 at 03:46, martin_wynne said:

They will be needing new Goods Sheds for the Amazon delivery trains. When was the last new Goods Shed built?

 

Amazon won't switch to rail - that is inherently in opposition to their next day / same day delivery options

 

[Ravenser]

The pandemic may affect commuter traffic in the medium term, and therefore particularly in London , as that's where the big commuter flows are

 

But it doesn't really affect Inter-City flows, or freight, or leisure travel - once we are out of the immediate epidemic

 

In the short term, it means that Network Rail and the former Northern franchise have side-stepped the capacity constraints in central Manchester (for which there was no very obvious fix) - they don't need to run all those trains , so suddenly they have a timetable that works

 

Crossrail is designed to cater for traffic flows that are not classic commuter flows (ie suburban London to Central London with a strong emphasis on the City). It can handle lots of traffic flows that are not office workers commuting. Thameslink too now offers lots of journey options within the South East that don't start or finish in the City of London

 

The economic problem with the network in the South East has always been that it required lots of very expensive infrastructure and rolling stock that was used for 2-3 hours in the morning , one way and 2-3 hours in the evening the other way - and was idle the rest of the day. Reduce the peaks and you reduce the problems.

 

The pandemic might therefore mean no further major capacity upgrades within the South East for a decade, and a big push to attract off-peak and leisure traffic , especially across London and across the region.  But the major infrastructure projects in London are already done or far advanced .

 

There may be more scope for gaining market share within a reduced commuter market in conurbations like Manchester , Leeds and Birmingham , since in these areas the train isn't the dominant commuter mode. Rail projects that aren't about commuters in conurbations should be unaffected . Proposals to bring passenger trains back to places like Ashington and Fleetwood , or the Oxford/Milton Keynes /Cambridge corridor should not really be affected.

 

I think the long term effect of the pandemic will be less than we expect. After all new diseases have happened before , and not much changed. Cholera, Spanish Flu and the Blitz didn't kill off railway commuting .

 

We are probably in for a decade of semi-stasis on the network, in which infrastructure work focusses on long distance passenger and extending the reach of the network into areas /connections that were lost to it under Beeching

 

Most of the growth in traffic over the last 25 years didn't come from additional office workers. And photos of South Eastern trains very full and standing to the Kent Coast a few weeks back suggests that the underlying appetite for travel is still there

Edited August 29, 2020 by Ravenser