Class 88/93

[mdvle]

11 hours ago, TomScrut said:

In the government's suggestions for decarbonisation the whole of the Transpennine route would be electrified I think (although I am sceptical as to if or when that would be) meaning actually would the 88s be a better match for the mk5s?

 

That assumes in that situation that the Mk5A's stay with TPE.

 

Another option could be to cascade them to another diesel route and buy all new distributed power EMU for TPE, which given the time frames may be the better option (say at a guess 10 years to electrify, at which point some of those Mk4 cascades may be looking for something newer).

[mdvle]

20 hours ago, DRS Crewe On A Mission said:

From a personal point of view I can't see their been a Class 88 even announced until the class in real life receive another one or two new liveries. Although DRS traction and liveries do seem to prove popular with myself and many others, I can't help but think that no manufacturer will commit to producing just one livery. I have reached the conclusion in my mind that even if the 88s in reality had one or two new liveries applied tomorrow, a manufacturer would most likely want to allow time for them to work in active service, to generate interest in the liveries, and then from an announcement it would most likely be 12 to 18 months before we would see them delivered in N and/or OO Gauge/s.

 

As you note, not all liveries are equal in terms of sales potential.

 

I don't think we will ever see a Class 88 in N unless it is done in a variation of crowd funding.

 

I'm not as pessimistic about the OO possibility, but still think it is a long shot unless the Class 88's pick up a more popular traffic flow that generates substantially more interest given they are essentially overhead electric units.

 

They have been around for 5 years already and beyond a small number of people they don't seem to generate the same interest as many other locos.

 

(the wildcard in this is if the Dapol Class 68 tooling can be modified to also to the Class 88, which would substantially reduce the investment - but that is likely a big if).

 

20 hours ago, DRS Crewe On A Mission said:

given that Accurascale working with KMS RailTech have last week announced expressions of interest in the GBRf and Caledonian Sleeper 73/96s, and between just eleven locos, their are just two liveries.

 

The Accurascale / KMS RailTech proposed Class 73/9 is for all 3 liveries - NR, GBRf, and Caledonian Sleeper.

 

20 hours ago, DRS Crewe On A Mission said:

Plus, the Caledonian Sleeper livery is very restricted in terms of what coaches and wagons the prototypes work with. In fact I have never seen a Caledonian Sleeper 73 work with anything other than the CS branded MK5 stock.

 

Not all circumstances are created equal.

 

The sleeper units potentially will sell well because they are the sleepers in a good looking livery, the ability to mix things up with the previous sleeper fleet, and (unlike the Class 88) not some random goods train.

 

But really the key point is likely the NR units, which run on almost any layout.

 

 

[DRS Crewe On A Mission]

4 hours ago, mdvle said:

 

As you note, not all liveries are equal in terms of sales potential.

 

I don't think we will ever see a Class 88 in N unless it is done in a variation of crowd funding.

 

I'm not as pessimistic about the OO possibility, but still think it is a long shot unless the Class 88's pick up a more popular traffic flow that generates substantially more interest given they are essentially overhead electric units.

 

They have been around for 5 years already and beyond a small number of people they don't seem to generate the same interest as many other locos.

 

(the wildcard in this is if the Dapol Class 68 tooling can be modified to also to the Class 88, which would substantially reduce the investment - but that is likely a big if).

 

 

The Accurascale / KMS RailTech proposed Class 73/9 is for all 3 liveries - NR, GBRf, and Caledonian Sleeper.

 

 

Not all circumstances are created equal.

 

The sleeper units potentially will sell well because they are the sleepers in a good looking livery, the ability to mix things up with the previous sleeper fleet, and (unlike the Class 88) not some random goods train.

 

But really the key point is likely the NR units, which run on almost any layout.

 

 

 

With the 88 it is a bit of a shame at the moment, regarding the liveries only wearing one prototype, because I am sure even if their was just one other livery Dapol or another manufacturer would have at least made an announce to commit to producing them. I agree, we will probably see a OO version first, with possibly an N gauge version further down the line but this could be some time away and as you say achieved through a crowdfunding initiative. 

 

When I mentioned that their are only two liveries between the GBRf and Caledonian Sleeper 73/96s, I didn't include the Network Rail Yellow versions because they are owned and operated by Network Rail and their are some external differences between these two and the GBRf and Caledonian Sleeper liveried 73/96s. 

 

That is true, the Midnight Teal livery is a very smart livery and it matches the MK5 Coaches. This alone would encourage people to buy them in model form, and the fact that Accurascale are producing the MK5s and potentially the Caledonian Sleeper 73/96s too, should mean that the colours are the same on both models, which will also be encouraging for people to hear. A third incentive for people to buy the Caledonian Sleeper 73s and corresponding MK5s is because it provides a rare opportunity to create a prototypical double header, hauling a passenger sleeper train and whilst using 73s. As you say their are quite a few incentives to buy these models. 

 

Yes the NR 73/95s have a lot of flexibility in terms of their geographical sphere of operations. I know that they have operated test trains in the south as well as the Midlands, Peak District, and Yorkshire including Leeds and Sheffield. 

 

Kind Regards, 

 

Danny. 

[njee20]

Ultimately they’re a different class of loco entirely, with different utilisation and different geographical spread, so comparisons about “x have announced a 73/9, so an 88 is nailed on” are utterly pointless. The existence (or not) of the 73/9 doesn’t make any difference to the viability of an 88. 
 

We’re told that electrics don’t sell as well. A class of 10 locos in one livery doesn’t seem like a compelling prospect at all, and personally even if they chuck a couple of new liveries into the mix I’m not sure I’d expect them to be as much of a sure thing as some seem to think. 
 

They are trialling them on the Dagenham-Garston car flow too, which expands their reach a bit, but they’ve only done a few trials so far. 

[DRS Crewe On A Mission]

1 hour ago, njee20 said:

Ultimately they’re a different class of loco entirely, with different utilisation and different geographical spread, so comparisons about “x have announced a 73/9, so an 88 is nailed on” are utterly pointless. The existence (or not) of the 73/9 doesn’t make any difference to the viability of an 88. 
 

We’re told that electrics don’t sell as well. A class of 10 locos in one livery doesn’t seem like a compelling prospect at all, and personally even if they chuck a couple of new liveries into the mix I’m not sure I’d expect them to be as much of a sure thing as some seem to think. 
 

They are trialling them on the Dagenham-Garston car flow too, which expands their reach a bit, but they’ve only done a few trials so far. 

 

I wouldn't say comparisons are pointless. In order for production runs to be viable of any model weather new or existing tooling, their has to be a range of liveries to manufacturer. At the moment the Class 88 only wears one livery in reality, so I thought it was relevant to compare ten 88s to, eleven converted 73/96s in GBRf and Caledonian Sleeper livery. In terms of liveries the 73/96s only wear one more livery than the Class 88, so if this project goes ahead, it immediately becomes more attractive as and when Class 88s gain a second or third livery, to produce the Class 88 in model form. It's been nice to see some photos online of the 88s been trialled on the car flow. Hopefully this will become a more permanent fixture for the class. 

 

Kind Regards, 

 

Danny. 

[No Decorum]

1 hour ago, njee20 said:

Ultimately they’re a different class of loco entirely, with different utilisation and different geographical spread, so comparisons about “x have announced a 73/9, so an 88 is nailed on” are utterly pointless. The existence (or not) of the 73/9 doesn’t make any difference to the viability of an 88. 
 

We’re told that electrics don’t sell as well. A class of 10 locos in one livery doesn’t seem like a compelling prospect at all, and personally even if they chuck a couple of new liveries into the mix I’m not sure I’d expect them to be as much of a sure thing as some seem to think. 
 

They are trialling them on the Dagenham-Garston car flow too, which expands their reach a bit, but they’ve only done a few trials so far. 

DRS beat me to it. Whilst the existence of the 73/9 doesn’t make any difference to the viability of an 88, the point is that if a 73/9 is viable why not an 88? To add to that argument, if a Class 48 (which some people haven’t even heard of) is viable, why not a good-looking, bang-up-to date machine in an attractive livery?

 

“We are told that electrics don’t sell well.” Some time ago, Andy York commented on this in relation to Bachmann’s 85, that they were steady, rather than spectacular sellers. The situation now is rather different. The 86, 87, 90 and 92 are all either with us or on their way even though all have been modelled before. Even if Dapol thinks that an 88 isn’t viable, someone else might very well step in.

 

I am much keener on a model of something which hasn’t been modelled before than something which has been. Unless, like the 92, the existing model is pretty dire. Other views are acknowledged.

[TomScrut]

2 hours ago, No Decorum said:

The 86, 87, 90 and 92 are all either with us or on their way even though all have been modelled before

 

And 91!

 

2 hours ago, No Decorum said:

if a Class 48 (which some people haven’t even heard of) is viable

 

Exactly. Twice as many 88s and also the 88s will have been around now about as long as they ever were.

 

OTOH the 48 is riding off the back of Heljan's new 47 tooling isn't it?

 

On a similar note though, look at the class 89. That could well end up being made and there is one of it, time is kinda on its side but has probably only been on use for a similar period of time as the 88s have. It does however have potentially 5 liveries (on the basis that it's current IC swallow is slightly different to the original in the 80s IIRC) and some fans of the loco will have multiple of the same thing in different liveries. Not sure how many people would buy multiple 88s in the same livery (says the guy with 2 DRS 68s and 2 TPE ones on the way)

[TravisM]

Lots of interesting comments, both positive and negative but I do feel a Class 88 will be produced in OO eventually but I think it will be done by one of the smaller companies, probably by EOI or crowdfunding.

 

Unless the likes of Revolution pick up the ball, I can’t see a N gauge version being produced.

Edited October 19, 2020 by jools1959
Add comments

[No Decorum]

11 minutes ago, jools1959 said:

Lots of interesting comments, both positive and negative but I do feel a Class 88 will be produced in OO eventually but I think it will be done by one of the smaller companies, probably by EOI or crowdfunding.

 

Unless the likes of Revolution pick up the ball, I can’t see a N gauge version being produced.

I can think of two companies which produce 00 models with motorised pantographs. 

[No Decorum]

1 hour ago, TomScrut said:

 

And 91!

 

A yes, the locomotive to be produced already in need of an upgrade.

[jpendle]

2 hours ago, TomScrut said:

Not sure how many people would buy multiple 88s in the same livery (says the guy with 2 DRS 68s and 2 TPE ones on the way)

Well I've got 5 N Gauge DRS Compass CL68's. 

 

John P

[njee20]

I suspect a significant number of people have single examples, and would sooner have a different livery, although obviously there will be plenty of people with duplicates; I think I'm up to 15 EWS 66s!

5 hours ago, No Decorum said:

DRS beat me to it. Whilst the existence of the 73/9 doesn’t make any difference to the viability of an 88, the point is that if a 73/9 is viable why not an 88? To add to that argument, if a Class 48 (which some people haven’t even heard of) is viable, why not a good-looking, bang-up-to date machine in an attractive livery?

 

My point with the 73/9 is that it's a different loco. Why not talk about the Deltic prototype, or the LMS Twins, or Falcon. Only one (or two) of those, but the existence of them in model form doesn't make the 88 any more (or less) likely or viable. That's not to say it isn't viable, but they're totally mutually exclusive, don't let personal bias affect it.

 

Plenty of people haven't heard of an 88 either, but again, that's not really relevant, you don't canvas people for whether they've heard of something in order to ascertain whether it would be viable.

[mdvle]

10 hours ago, DRS Crewe On A Mission said:

 

With the 88 it is a bit of a shame at the moment, regarding the liveries only wearing one prototype, because I am sure even if their was just one other livery Dapol or another manufacturer would have at least made an announce to commit to producing them.

 

I would disagree - it will likely take a lot more than just another livery to make a Class 88 viable in model form.

 

10 hours ago, DRS Crewe On A Mission said:

When I mentioned that their are only two liveries between the GBRf and Caledonian Sleeper 73/96s, I didn't include the Network Rail Yellow versions because they are owned and operated by Network Rail and their are some external differences between these two and the GBRf and Caledonian Sleeper liveried 73/96s. 

 

Irrelevant.

 

All that is relevant is that KMS Railtech is including the NR units in their 73/9 offering, and perhaps more importantly the wide usage of the NR units means they will likely outsell the Caledonian or GBRf units thus making the project viable.

 

10 hours ago, DRS Crewe On A Mission said:

That is true, the Midnight Teal livery is a very smart livery and it matches the MK5 Coaches. This alone would encourage people to buy them in model form, and the fact that Accurascale are producing the MK5s and potentially the Caledonian Sleeper 73/96s too, should mean that the colours are the same on both models, which will also be encouraging for people to hear. A third incentive for people to buy the Caledonian Sleeper 73s and corresponding MK5s is because it provides a rare opportunity to create a prototypical double header, hauling a passenger sleeper train and whilst using 73s. As you say their are quite a few incentives to buy these models.

 

 

But it is more than just liveries.

 

The West Highland Line is very popular, and it is easy to make a model of the line with most/all of the required rolling stock available in OO - with an added benefit that you can run several different periods on the same layout simply by mixing and matching rolling stock with different liveries.  This increases the sales potential of a 73/9.

 

8 hours ago, DRS Crewe On A Mission said:

I wouldn't say comparisons are pointless. In order for production runs to be viable of any model weather new or existing tooling, their has to be a range of liveries to manufacturer.

 

Yes and no.

 

At the end of the day the viability of a model depends on whether someone believes that they can sell the X thousand units necessary to cover the costs of research, tooling, and production.

 

Yes, additional liveries can help by increasing the potential sales numbers, but a model with only 1 or 2 liveries can also be successful if it is popular enough - or if there are other external factors that could drive up sales.

 

Offering a 73/9 without the Mk5 sleepers being available likely wouldn't work, but the combination of the Mk5 sleepers and the NR sales make it potentially possible.

 

8 hours ago, DRS Crewe On A Mission said:

At the moment the Class 88 only wears one livery in reality, so I thought it was relevant to compare ten 88s to, eleven converted 73/96s in GBRf and Caledonian Sleeper livery. In terms of liveries the 73/96s only wear one more livery than the Class 88, so if this project goes ahead, it immediately becomes more attractive as and when Class 88s gain a second or third livery, to produce the Class 88 in model form.

 

The success or failure of the proposed 3 variations of the Class 73/9 has no bearing on the probabilities of a Class 88.

 

8 hours ago, No Decorum said:

DRS beat me to it. Whilst the existence of the 73/9 doesn’t make any difference to the viability of an 88, the point is that if a 73/9 is viable why not an 88?

 

To steal a phrase, location location location.

 

The 73/9's run on the popular WHL, which is easy to model.

 

The NR 73/9's run all over the place, and being essentially a diesel are attractive to all modellers.

 

The 88, being an overhead electric, suffers from a much smaller potential market.

 

8 hours ago, No Decorum said:

To add to that argument, if a Class 48 (which some people haven’t even heard of) is viable, why not a good-looking, bang-up-to date machine in an attractive livery?

 

Bad example.

 

The Class 48 is essentially just a Class 47 with a different engine, as evidenced by that fact that the Class 48 units were ultimately turned into Class 47's.

 

If there are any external differences (I don't know) they are likely relatively minor and will benefit from the fact that Heljan is currently tooling up a new Class 47 with tooling to allow multiple variations - so the "cost" is minimal to Model Rail.

 

And perhaps more importantly, we don't yet know if a Class 48 is viable - so far it is in the "is there enough interest in this"

 

8 hours ago, No Decorum said:

“We are told that electrics don’t sell well.” Some time ago, Andy York commented on this in relation to Bachmann’s 85, that they were steady, rather than spectacular sellers. The situation now is rather different. The 86, 87, 90 and 92 are all either with us or on their way even though all have been modelled before. Even if Dapol thinks that an 88 isn’t viable, someone else might very well step in.

 

Which brings us to the other half of the livery equation, market interest.

 

The prime market, as it always has been, is the "kids have grown up so I now have the time and money" groups, aka 40 to say 60 year olds.

 

Their formative teen years featured those locos on the covers of magazines and featured stories, they were the workhorses or the shiny new thing on British Rail - and while not everyone does a large number are spending money to recreate their childhood.

 

Add the fact that most of them were used in passenger service (which is what most model), and it is a good market to chase - which is why for example Heljan is tooling up a new Class 47.

 

The oddball of your list, the Class 92, has the advantage of also being 3rd rail which appears to be more popular than overhead electrics (perhaps because it is much easier to model).

 

A Class 88, for another 25+ years, doesn't have the advantage of nostalgia.

 

6 hours ago, TomScrut said:

On a similar note though, look at the class 89. That could well end up being made and there is one of it, time is kinda on its side but has probably only been on use for a similar period of time as the 88s have.

 

The Class 89 has the advantage of nostalgia, as I mentioned above - but also has the benefit of looking very different to anything else on BR as well as being a "failure", which increases its collectible value.  Though it also, at this point, falls into the we don't know if it will get made given that nothing has been said for quite a while.

 

It is one of the ironies that a group of 10 locos will be less interesting than something that only had 1 or 2 made.

 

3 hours ago, njee20 said:

Why not talk about the Deltic prototype, or the LMS Twins, or Falcon. Only one (or two) of those, but the existence of them in model form doesn't make the 88 any more (or less) likely or viable. That's not to say it isn't viable, but they're totally mutually exclusive, don't let personal bias affect it.

 

They also come from a time when China was cheaper, and as a result the product on the shelf in the UK was cheaper, which meant a lot more of the "rule 1" purchases increasing the sales potential.

 

It is telling that for those sort of things we have moved from a Bachmann or Heljan offering them through normal retail channels to those sorts of unique models being done by a retailer or someone selling direct only.

[adb968008]

Unfortunately most Electric loco classes are small numbers...

 

70..3

74..10

77..7

80..1

82..10

83..15

84..10

88..10

89..1

 

of that lot.. only 1 has been made, despite only the 74 and 88 being the only ones to wear 1 livery.

Fleet size matters to manufacturers..

71, 73,76, 81,85,86,87,90,91,92... all greater than 20.. all been tooled.

(edited added 71,76,92.. see below posts).

 

 

Edited October 20, 2020 by adb968008

[Roy Langridge]

13 minutes ago, adb968008 said:

Unfortunately most Electric loco classes are small numbers...

 

70..3

74..10

77..7

80..1

82..10

83..15

84..10

88..10

89..1

 

of that lot.. only 1 has been made, despite only the 74 and 88 being the only ones to wear 1 livery.

Fleet size matters to manufacturers..

73,81,85,86,87,90,91.. all greater than 20.. all been tooled.

 

 

 

And Class 76 with 58 to further reinforce your point. 
 

Roy

[adb968008]

4 minutes ago, Roy Langridge said:

And Class 76 with 58 to further reinforce your point. 
 

Roy

oops on the 76, added below..

 

73, 76,81,85,86,87,90,91

 

but I was going to edit that to say they have actually, except the 85, they have all been tooled twice... .

Edited October 20, 2020 by adb968008

[TomScrut]

16 minutes ago, Roy Langridge said:

And Class 76 with 58 to further reinforce your point. 
 

Roy

 

And the 92 with 46, which has been tooled twice too (just, unless Lima did one too)

Edited October 20, 2020 by TomScrut

[adb968008]

46 and 58 don’t have pantographs, though in 2020 I’m begining to think anything is possible.

 

If we’re talking what’s the most popular, then it must be the class 52...

it’s been tooled by Trix, Hornby, Lima, Heljan and Dapol.

 

Closely followed by the class 47, it’s been tooled by Hornby, Lima, Bachmann and Heljan.

 

 

 

[TravisM]

1 hour ago, adb968008 said:

Unfortunately most Electric loco classes are small numbers...

 

70..3

74..10

77..7

80..1

82..10

83..15

84..10

88..10

89..1

 

of that lot.. only 1 has been made, despite only the 74 and 88 being the only ones to wear 1 livery.

Fleet size matters to manufacturers..

73,81,85,86,87,90,91.. all greater than 20.. all been tooled.

 

 

 

I think you missed the Class 71’s, 24 built, 10 converted to Class 74’s and they also had a pantograph 

Edited October 20, 2020 by jools1959

[adb968008]

1 minute ago, jools1959 said:

I think you missed the Class 71’s, 24 built, 10 converted to Class 74’s and they also had a pantograph 

And tooled twice

 

[frobisher]

43 minutes ago, TomScrut said:

 

And the 92 with 46, which has been tooled twice too (just, unless Lima did one too)

 

They did, apparently slightly better shaped than the Hornby one...

[frobisher]

23 minutes ago, adb968008 said:

Closely followed by the class 47, it’s been tooled by Hornby, Lima, Bachmann and Heljan.

 

And ViTrains...

[Roy Langridge]

Going way off topic now....

[TomScrut]

1 hour ago, adb968008 said:

46 and 58 don’t have pantographs, though in 2020 I’m begining to think anything is possible.

 

You know what we meant 

 

46 92s means 92 pantographs, nice coincidence!

[XChris]

I'm just thinking out loud, however would a run of 3 different numbered 88's with let's say 88003 & 88008 being produced in high numbers and then a limited run of 88001 being sold at a higher price not help to recover investment leaving the door open and the tooling/cad files in place in case an 88 gets painted in a 'Malcolm/Tesco' livery in the future?