Class 88/93

[mdvle]

38 minutes ago, TomScrut said:

given MUs are also generally less popular because people can't for some reason stomach paying £230 for a 2 car DMU when they'll pay £160 for a loco.

 

While people moan about the 2 car prices, they really aren't the problem - there are plenty of 2 car dmu models available and coming.

 

The problem is (as you sort of get to later) the price of the 4 and 5 car units.

 

38 minutes ago, TomScrut said:

And so eventually will there end up being a lump of modellers who previously kept bang up to date sticking around 2020 because a) they don't like the newer stuff, b) the newer stuff doesn't exist as a model or c) both?

 

Time will tell.

 

But the problem, as it always has been, is the fragmentation of the real railway when it comes to the longer multiple units which can make it difficult to find a market to justify the tooling costs and willing to pay the price.

 

I have mentioned it before, but I suspect there are people watching to see what happens with the Mk5 and Mk5A models in terms of sales and thus ability to recoup costs.

 

38 minutes ago, TomScrut said:

Exactly. I think most of the problem with the 4/5 car MUs is the selections, for example Bachmann did Desiros but didn't do any that ran anywhere north of the Midlands. TPE 350 I expect would have done well.

 

And then why on earth nobody has done the Electrostar is beyond me. I'd have thought they would have done better than Desiros TBH, they are more prolific.

 

I would suspect (not having the ability to do the research) the problem is differences in the various subclasses etc. making it all a bit costly.

 

A quick glance indicates there appears to be around 5 different front ends to the Electrostar family, so five different sets of tooling.

 

The alternative is to only do certain subclasses, but then you reduce your potential market and the variety of liveries you can offer...

 

38 minutes ago, TomScrut said:

Hornby don't look like they struggle shifting 800s at £300-400 each. I think assuming they can adapt to different classes getting that will work out to be a masterstroke. I think a TPE and/or HT 802 would do well, and then there are WCML and MML variants to come albeit with different front ends and carriage lengths in the case of MML.

 

The advantage is that the 80x units, being the next generation HST, have a lot more geographic appeal and (long term) livery options - thus Hornby could look at the costs and say that's okay because we can use this tooling for the next 10 to 20 years and will have many liveries over those decades.

 

 

[newbryford]

14 minutes ago, mdvle said:

 

 

 

 

The advantage is that the 80x units, being the next generation HST, have a lot more geographic appeal and (long term) livery options - thus Hornby could look at the costs and say that's okay because we can use this tooling for the next 10 to 20 years and will have many liveries over those decades.

 

 

 

Hoping that Hornby can adapt the tooling for the EMR 810............

https://www.railadvent.co.uk/2020/10/aurora-the-name-for-east-midlands-railway-class-810-trains.html/amp

 

[adb968008]

I don’t buy that argument.

 

Theres plenty of coaches tooled that are “sets”.. we have several unique coaches coming in the Coronation Scot set, and several in the APT. Portholes came in several guises too.

APT is an EMU, and quite a niche one, with not many liveries.

 

In model form, an EMU is just a loco and 3 coaches, that happens to run in a fixed formation.

 

Todays railways are very different...lhcs has gone, as has much of the freight, its a unit network.

 

i’d have a hard time thinking the upcoming BEP would be more popular than an Electrostar. i’m interested to see if the HAP sweeps shelves as fast as the new 158 did. You could take the more popular front end (GWR, Southern, GA, GN, FCC etc )  and have half the country covered, in a half dozen liveries.

 

A class 180 has potential too, it has covered GWML, ECML, MML and WCML to scotland in its time, producing at least 5 liveries to date.

A class 319 has tons of potential too, it too has a wide spread, and 769/799 potential.

The 185 is quite well spread too.

Remember with modern image tooling, its not about producing 1 run of models to saturate the market forever.. look how much mileage Bachmann has had out of the 158, or Hornby from the 142...

 

modern image has a future to be defined, unlike historical models.For that reason the tooling could be graduated, it doesnt have to be an all bells and whistles tooling on day one... Minimum Viable Product...
A decent tooling, but “dumb” coaches without lights, through wiring etc could be offered, reducing that cost making it more affordable and hence greater volume.

But tooled in a way that the bells and whistles can be added in a future release, persuading people to upgrade.
it doesnt always have to be tooled to the greatest sales spec the chinese toolmaker can sell you.

Edited October 29, 2020 by adb968008

[159220]

11 hours ago, TomScrut said:

That's cool, SudExpress make a HO version of the EU version:

....

I am more a fan of this beast (though the new MedWay 4000 awaits me in Portugal): https://www.facebook.com/media/set/?set=a.10158265066513232&type=3&__xts__[0]=68.ARAvqajjqEMWrFneW78ovyoOgVRhop2q2Dj_1KEuurppo03uSepF25ntbgsPO-tROA3GNU6W1ppXu6VOAavJya3Pp8F9R03MMCQecVzD_A391pDzMF_S6lrcJS0SbmdxrhoWAUorQ-7EGU-XTQpzAQ-sBTm9MH6r-fx99h4CA3i8RMpqaqe3M0j8FgYolapXvSkSuw8zXWXRfmvnFDUPdsHqH8WO92OJ2V6afG5E1_t552eS08i-IcVJlODR1r9ni3zDSgza73oKL6Q8ttxq6wJF0yvo7fMOTprSH3ugw5CB78x6Kc0pA6psWoQaz8f6gfw8_iPURNGOXSawFwBm 

[TomScrut]

12 hours ago, mdvle said:

A quick glance indicates there appears to be around 5 different front ends to the Electrostar family, so five different sets of tooling.

 

As is with the Desiros but notably Bachmann have only tackled one end.

 

12 hours ago, adb968008 said:

A class 180 has potential too, it has covered GWML, ECML, MML and WCML to scotland in its time, producing at least 5 liveries to date.

A class 319 has tons of potential too, it too has a wide spread, and 769/799 potential.

The 185 is quite well spread too.

 

What does the future hold for the 180s? Although they have been around a while already.

 

The 319 I think would do well although of little interest to me.

 

The 185 is one I would like although it has (AFAIK) only had two liveries and there are only 51 of them, but has cover pretty much the whole north of England in it's time. The issue for it now is what are going to happen to the real things? If they go elsewhere then its more livery, coverage etc. if they stay with TPE, nothing changes, if they get mothballed then that won't help a model.

 

I'd think that the Aventras or the Civitys would be what I'd be targeting if I was making a MU.

 

Civity already has a few variations and liveries, although I am unsure as to how easily these could all be covered in tooling. I'd probably forget the 397 and concentrate on the 195-197 and 331.

[4630]

39 minutes ago, TomScrut said:

 

 

 

The 185 is one I would like although it has (AFAIK) only had two liveries...

 

 

 

 

Only two what you might call 'main liveries' (First 'wavy lines' which preceded the current First TPE livery) applied to the whole fleet, but there was an original First 'barbie' livery applied to a few of the early deliveries that saw public service.

 

There have been several one-off 'specials' applied to individual coaches too.

Edited October 29, 2020 by 4630

[87023Velocity]

19 hours ago, 4630 said:

 

Only two what you might call 'main liveries' (First 'wavy lines' which preceded the current First TPE livery) applied to the whole fleet, but there was an original First 'barbie' livery applied to a few of the early deliveries that saw public service.

 

There have been several one-off 'specials' applied to individual coaches too.

The barbie livery was used on test/crew training only. Each new unit into public service got wrapped in the wavy lines livery. 

[Peter749]

On 19/10/2020 at 19:25, mdvle said:

To steal a phrase, location location location.

 

The 73/9's run on the popular WHL, which is easy to model.

 

The NR 73/9's run all over the place, and being essentially a diesel are attractive to all modellers.

 

The 88, being an overhead electric, suffers from a much smaller potential market.

 

The 73/9 would be popular because it can run anywhere on Diesel

 

Why would the Class 88 not be popular for the same reason?

 

Peter

 

[TomScrut]

13 minutes ago, Peter749 said:

The 73/9 would be popular because it can run anywhere on Diesel

 

Why would the Class 88 not be popular for the same reason?

 

Peter

 

 

And I think it is fair to say as well that despite the diesel being initially for shunting at ends of journeys they do flit about, sometimes with FNAs on the back, under diesel.

[adb968008]

20 minutes ago, Peter749 said:

The 73/9 would be popular because it can run anywhere on Diesel

 

Why would the Class 88 not be popular for the same reason?

 

Peter

 

How does that argument apply to the class 74..

10 locos, 1 livery, works on diesel, inc passenger, freight and pullmans, and benefits from being of “southern region premium”.

[mdvle]

2 hours ago, Peter749 said:

The 73/9 would be popular because it can run anywhere on Diesel

 

Why would the Class 88 not be popular for the same reason?

 

Because other than the roof and perhaps some other easily overlooked detail differences the average person may as well just buy a Class 68 which has essentially the same look.

[TomScrut]

2 hours ago, mdvle said:

 

Because other than the roof and perhaps some other easily overlooked detail differences the average person may as well just buy a Class 68 which has essentially the same look.

 

In that case why are Dapol doing a 59? Plenty of 66 models

Edited November 4, 2020 by TomScrut

[Dixie Dean]

I quite like the idea of reaching the end of the catenary and being able to start the diesel engine and do some shunting or head off somewhere.  Would need a MK 5 chip but changing modes would quite appeal to me.

[njee20]

4 hours ago, mdvle said:

 

Because other than the roof and perhaps some other easily overlooked detail differences the average person may as well just buy a Class 68 which has essentially the same look.

Bizarre comment. The average person may as well just buy an HST. It's a train innit. Among modellers there will be a broad church, from those who struggle to spot the differences, to those who can tell you the speedo cable is a different length on the 88.

[mdvle]

2 hours ago, njee20 said:

Bizarre comment. The average person may as well just buy an HST. It's a train innit. Among modellers there will be a broad church, from those who struggle to spot the differences, to those who can tell you the speedo cable is a different length on the 88.

 

Something like 80% to 90% of the market are exactly that - they don't care about attempting to accurately model the prototype and they instead simply buy what they like / whatever catches their eye.  They are the ones who will see Hatton's Genesis coaches, like their short length and looks, buy them and run them behind a Class 47.

 

For them the differences between a Class 68 and Class 88 won't matter, and so that will be one of the reasons Dapol will hesitate to spend the money to tool up the Class 88.

 

4 hours ago, TomScrut said:

 

In that case why are Dapol doing a 59? Plenty of 66 models

 

Because a) Dapol don't have a Class 66 to sell and b) its a diesel so it doesn't have the overhead electric issue and a much broader geographic range for those who are at least semi-interested in reflecting the real railway.

[njee20]

7 hours ago, mdvle said:

 

Something like 80% to 90% of the market are exactly that - they don't care about attempting to accurately model the prototype and they instead simply buy what they like / whatever catches their eye.  They are the ones who will see Hatton's Genesis coaches, like their short length and looks, buy them and run them behind a Class 47.

Can I have your source please? That’s a bold statement.
 

Why wouldn’t any those people buy an 88? If you’re saying 80% of purchases are effectively random and based on what looks nice. It doesn’t hold water that people would just buy a 68 instead. Why would anyone buy anything other than Railroad products where a duplicate exists?

 

Even within those who just ‘buy what they want’ that’s still a sliding scale too, yes ok a small number will buy Genesis coaches and run with a 47, but a larger number will want something vaguely plausible, others will want to number coaches to make sure they’re the exact rake that loco hauled in July 1983.

[TomScrut]

11 hours ago, mdvle said:

Because a) Dapol don't have a Class 66 to sell and b) its a diesel so it doesn't have the overhead electric issue and a much broader geographic range for those who are at least semi-interested in reflecting the real railway.

 

The 88 runs on diesel too, but I am sure you are aware of this already and are ignoring it.

 

Maybe Dapol don't but the point still stands that people must be interested enough in the 59 to justify doing it, despite the fact it looks very similar to a 66. And the usage of a 59 is almost identical to a 66 too, or at least could be substituted which is your argument about the 88. Yet people (understandably) want them still in the same way people (understandably) want a 88 as well as a 68. Do 59s have a far broader geographic range? Nowadays aren't they pretty much isolated to the south west whereas the 88s get from the south all the way up to Scotland on both sides of the country. 

 

I found this fairly interesting pic on Flickr when looking at 88s:

 

 

So could even be used with NR coaches if one wanted.

 

[TomScrut]

5 hours ago, njee20 said:

If you’re saying 80% of purchases are effectively random and based on what looks nice. It doesn’t hold water that people would just buy a 68 instead.

 

Especially given in my opinion the DRS livery on the 88 is better and therefore if buying on aesthetic appeal alone the 88 wins in my book.

[newbryford]

1 hour ago, TomScrut said:

 

The 88 runs on diesel too, but I am sure you are aware of this already and are ignoring it.

 

Maybe Dapol don't but the point still stands that people must be interested enough in the 59 to justify doing it, despite the fact it looks very similar to a 66. And the usage of a 59 is almost identical to a 66 too, or at least could be substituted which is your argument about the 88. Yet people (understandably) want them still in the same way people (understandably) want a 88 as well as a 68. Do 59s have a far broader geographic range? Nowadays aren't they pretty much isolated to the south west whereas the 88s get from the south all the way up to Scotland on both sides of the country. 

 

I found this fairly interesting pic on Flickr when looking at 88s:

 

 

So could even be used with NR coaches if one wanted.

 

 

It was a one off trip and not testing.

 

[TomScrut]

3 hours ago, newbryford said:

 

It was a one off trip and not testing.

 

 

I know (as I read the description when I saw the pic), one off trips are good enough for me!

 

But that does pose what could be an interesting point. How prolific does a combination have to be for somebody to want to run it?

 

Some will go with rule 1

Some will go with "it (or very similar) has happened before, good enough for me" (which is where I stand)

Some will want an exact thing to have happened before

Some will need it to be at least a regular thing

Edited November 5, 2020 by TomScrut

[MRDBLUE17]

Hi,

 

I spoke to Andy about the possibility of a Dapol 88 at showcase a few years back as with my interest in the DRS fleet I would certainly get a couple. Plenty of running on Diesel along the Cumbrian Coast although most of the loads are not very taxing. But I do get the difficult position for a company working out if a small fleet like this would cover its costs and turn a profit. It’s probably one that would break even as it does seem popular enough but could they make more doing something different probably gets factored in.

 

Hopefully one day we will see it produced

 

thanks

Mark

[TomScrut]

10 minutes ago, MRDBLUE17 said:

Plenty of running on Diesel along the Cumbrian Coast although most of the loads are not very taxing.

 

I think they also get a fair bit of work across the Tyne valley on diesel.

[Dixie Dean]

Pity we can't do a poll on here and see how many people on here would purchase.

[adb968008]

1 hour ago, Dixie Dean said:

Pity we can't do a poll on here and see how many people on here would purchase.

You can.

 

But i’d imagine you’d have a hard time reaching c3000 people who want one, as a minimum to make it worthwhile. If you could reach 1000 who want 3, then you might be onto something.

[TomScrut]

I'd ideally only want one, but I'd rather have two than none....

 

Especially as they do get about as pairs a lot

Edited November 5, 2020 by TomScrut