Long tails

[billbedford]

I've had a number of enquiries lately for kits I have not produced for some time, ie more than 10 years since I last changed etchers. For most of that time the kits in question have been advertised on my website with no interest being shown. This leaves me in a quandary.

 

I could just remake the tools and offer as is, however all the designs are at least 10 years old and the world has moved on from there. 

Or I could revamp the etches and add printed parts to make 'fuller' kits. The other possibility would be to forget about the etches and develop printed versions of the kits. The problem, as I see it, is when turnover has been measured in years per sale whether it is worth the time an effort to put these thinks back into production.

 

I would be interested in what members think about coping with this long tail. 

[Gordon A]

Sorry Bill, but what are your "Long Tails"?

 

Gordon A

[micklner]

In those 10 years how many makers have disappeared. There are hardly any kits out there to buy in 2020, compared to 2000 . That might be your answer.

 

 

Clueless what tails are about too.

[billbedford]

It's where maybe 75% or 80% of possible sales come in the first few years of a product's life and then further sales become slow and erratic.

Edited September 3, 2020 by billbedford

[Bucoops]

Which ones specifically? As you know I order the odd GER ones from you.

[Barry O]

?LMS Period II Semi Open First???

 

Baz

[billbedford]

Nothing specifically. I need to decide whether to;

1. Carry on supply the odd etching on an ad hoc basis.
2. Find a way to update the etches to widen their appeal
3. Forget the etches and concentrate on producing prints

If I do 3, I can't produce coaches longer than 50', if I do 2, they should be no more complicated than an injection moulded kit. 

[Argos]

To be honest Bill, if people are prepared to order the existing etch why go to the bother of updating? 

Having access to the etches makes more models available to those who are prepared to expend a bit of effort producing something so are a welcome resource.

We usually have a backlog of kits and projects so happy to wait for etches to be produced or enough orders to be received to fill an etched sheet to make it economic for the etches to be produced.

 

Whether that's worth your while is a different question.

 

I seem to recall I was interested in some items that were on your lists, I just presumed the opportunity to purchase any had gone now.

 

 

[Wheatley]

I'm with Argos, I'm happy with etches only, the world may have moved on but your old stuff is still streets ahead of most others. I've only ordered a few bits from you but they were things that no other manufacturer would have even contemplated (ex-GER cafeteria car from 2 grainy photos iirc) and which I could never have scratch built.

 

 

[billbedford]

10 minutes ago, Barry O said:

?LMS Period II Semi Open First???

 

Baz

 

Yep, and how many would you want??

[micklner]

Bill

 

How many kits would you actually be still able to make available ? , a current list might to be to everybodies benefit in the near future. e.g there is nothing on your site re NER Coaches and only a couple of NER  wagons listed as available .

 

I have little interest in resin bodies , resin is ok for small parts , but lacks stability when used as the main body.

[Talltim]

I think I would get reruns of the original etched, unless there are models where you particularly want to update the kits. Couple of things tho, does your etcher have minimum runs for a design? If so you may end up with stock hanging around. Also might you be better removing old kits with no stock left from the site, or moving them to an ‘expressions of interest’ page, where you will rerun once you get a certain quantity of requests?

Edited September 3, 2020 by Talltim

[Willie Whizz]

An interesting dilemma.  I suppose the underlying key point is:  would revamping the kits to make them easier to build and thus more 'accessible' to people who feel they don't have the depth of skills skills for the current versions, plus maybe a little more active promotion of their existence, produce sufficient increase in sales to justify the time and work involved?

 

Not easy to answer, of course.  One straw in the wind to help make such a call might be to note the quite considerable interest being expressed on here in the generic pre-Grouping coaches shortly being produced by Hattons.  Many of those expressing enthusiasm for these approximations, by no means mere "out of the box" modellers, are citing their reservations about building more complex (and/or less complete) kits for accurate coaches, even where these exist, and wishing that the R-T-R  manufacturers would produce more.of them.  The often-voiced wish that "someone" could and would take control of the moribund CooperCraft range of fairly straightforward plastic coach kits - for all their age and imperfections - is also instructive.  The need for soldering of brass kits seems to represent a major psychological "block" for some, which those who find it a doddle struggle to comprehend in much the same way those to whom swimming came easily often cannot empathise with those who can't do it.  So there are indications "a" market for an "easier" kit product may well be there.

 

On the other hand, there is the riposte often voiced on this site that not all small manufacturers actually want to achieve a material increase in sales, because as (effectively) one-person-bands there is - for a variety of entirely valid reasons - only so much time, effort and money they feel they can devote to the work.  That has to be a personal judgment only the individual manufacturer can make, and I wouldn't wish to suggest otherwise.

 

Whichever way you decide to go, Bill, I will watch with interest and support.

 

 

Edited September 3, 2020 by Willie Whizz

[Barry O]

9 hours ago, billbedford said:

 

Yep, and how many would you want??

I paid a deposit on one pre Covid...

 

Baz

[Bucoops]

11 hours ago, micklner said:

Bill

 

How many kits would you actually be still able to make available ? , a current list might to be to everybodies benefit in the near future. e.g there is nothing on your site re NER Coaches and only a couple of NER  wagons listed as available .

 

I have little interest in resin bodies , resin is ok for small parts , but lacks stability when used as the main body.

 

Totally agree - I like etched kits. I've seen mention of a GER 54ft underframe which I would love to get hold of for example. 

[Headstock]

20 hours ago, billbedford said:

I've had a number of enquiries lately for kits I have not produced for some time, ie more than 10 years since I last changed etchers. For most of that time the kits in question have been advertised on my website with no interest being shown. This leaves me in a quandary.

 

I could just remake the tools and offer as is, however all the designs are at least 10 years old and the world has moved on from there. 

Or I could revamp the etches and add printed parts to make 'fuller' kits. The other possibility would be to forget about the etches and develop printed versions of the kits. The problem, as I see it, is when turnover has been measured in years per sale whether it is worth the time an effort to put these thinks back into production.

 

I would be interested in what members think about coping with this long tail. 

 

Good afternoon Bill,

 

I built a GCR dia. 3A9 last year, a Gresley BTK (6) and a Thompson BT (5) from your etches, I'm very happy with the results of all. I'm hoping to order some other GCR etches, such as the 1Y11 BG, in near future. I will be most despondent if they are no longer available, or replaced by other materials. I hope the brass sides also continue, I have used oodles of them over the years. Another model railway sad day otherwise.

[Phil Traxson]

19 hours ago, micklner said:

Bill

 

 

 

I have little interest in resin bodies , resin is ok for small parts , but lacks stability when used as the main body.

Sorry, don't understand this comment, I have twenty  year old resin bodied kits running that are perfectly OK. Like any other material they must be properly designed (and assembled) and, also like other methods, may not be suitable for all models. 

Edited September 4, 2020 by Phil Traxson

[micklner]

5 minutes ago, Phil Traxson said:

Sorry, don't understand this comment, I have twenty  year old resin bodied kits running that are perfectly OK.

There have been comments on other threads re Resin bodies warping , including some of Bill's wagons having the same problems. A search should find the threads . The term Resin is a bit vague as there are various types.

 

I also make model cars which have had the same problem as well in the past. Hence I now avoid Resin models 99% of the time.

Edited September 4, 2020 by micklner

[billbedford]

5 hours ago, Headstock said:

 I hope the brass sides also continue, I have used oodles of them over the years. Another model railway sad day otherwise.

 

I have no intention about doing away with the brass coach sides. But there is still a problem with the, mainly pre-grouping, etches which don't have suitable RTR donor coaches. 

[2750Papyrus]

Bill, to some extent it depends upon how much time and effort you wish to commit to the business whilst maintaining reasonable lead times.

 

Personally, I am unlikely to buy an etched kit from you as I have both D & S and Perseverance kits in the stache which I will probably never have the time and skills to complete.  However, I have built three of your resin wagons and have another and two coaches in hand at the moment, and am quite likely to invest in more.  I did find that a van had dished sides when taken from the box but was able to correct this by gentle manipulation in hot water.

 

To my mind, resin kits provide us less gifted modellers with a means of acquiring authentic pre-grouping stock and I would think form the growth market.  Maintaining production of the sides would enable more skilled modellers to construct their models by sourcing third party components.

 

 

[Headstock]

2 hours ago, billbedford said:

 

I have no intention about doing away with the brass coach sides. But there is still a problem with the, mainly pre-grouping, etches which don't have suitable RTR donor coaches. 

 

Good evening Bill,

 

thanks for the reply. Good news about the brass sides, though like some others, I don't necessarily use them with a RTR product. However, what of the ex GCR etches, in particular the Dia. 1Y11B full brake?

[billbedford]

At least some of the GCR etches will be coming back, but not until my etcher can give me a sensible delivery time. (and maybe not in exactly the present form)

[MJI]

Interesting thread.

 

I have noticed a pickup recently in the hobby and in increase on people tackling kits.

 

I hope you find a way to keep product and increase sales.

 

[Blue Max]

I hope the brass coach etches remain available, I ordered 4 sets earlier this year that I hope will come through once the etching companies are back to full strength.

There must be at least a couple of dozen others that I would like in the next year or so.

 

All I would like to see in way of improvements is for the Gresley panelled stock to have the below waistline panels as separate inserts like those from MJT and RDEB ranges but do appreciate this would mean re-drawing all the designs which is probably not practical, so happy to continue with the etches split as upper and lower halves joined at the waistline.

 

I do not get on with resin cast models at all and no longer buy them, I have seen to many of them bow along the sides as the resin is just not stable enough to hold there form long term.

 

SteveT

[Bucoops]

Surrounded as I am by RDEB bits at the moment I'm actually looking forward to doing some that don't have the drop-in panels

 

Having said that my preference would be for the method that ends up looking most realistic. The biggest hate I have is or poorly etched parts - not going to lie, having to drill and open out dozens of hinge holes in these RDEB bits is really frustrating - but at present they are the only source for the diagrams I need. 

 

edit: having said that, the two RDEB kits that arrived yesterday, only 9 hinge holes weren't etched all the way through out of 39 so that's an improvement  Sorry I know the thread isn't about RDEB so I'll stop here.

Edited September 6, 2020 by Bucoops