How many railway modellers?

[34theletterbetweenB&D]

If you throw the net wide, and define it as 'anyone purchasing a model railway item, even if it is only once every few years' then I suspect the UK is comfortably past a million. That definition includes one of my SiL's who has a nice collection of battered old O gauge clockwork tinplate in her summerhouse/garden room, essentially as decor, but does allows it to be run occasionally (that'll be when a certain relative visits).

[Andy Hayter]

35 minutes ago, Dungrange said:

 

That's all very true and serves to demonstrate the significant issue in estimating a rather vague term such as how many people are railway modellers in the UK.  To add to that list, there is of course the fact that not all members of RMWeb live in the UK.  There are a few on here from North America, Australia (including yourself) and no doubt many other locations across the globe.  That therefore means that the base number needs to be adjusted by other estimates, all of which are effectively guesses.

 

So, RMWeb has 39,332 members of which let's say 2% don't live in the UK, 2% of those who do live in the UK have passed away, but their account is still active and of those who are still alive and do live in the UK, 4% of such members have a second or duplicate account.

 

That therefore means that I'd have 39,332 * 0.98 * 0.98 * 0.96 * 4, which would give me an estimate of 145,000.  Ultimately, the only accurate number that I have used is the number of RMWeb member accounts - anyone can pick holes in any of the assumptions used to factor that number up and the same applies irrespective of what the start point used is, which could be exhibition attendances (remember them), magazine circulation, or members of the Hornby of Bachmann Collectors clubs or the Scalefour Society.  Which then brings in the other thing we can argue about - which start point is the most representative group in relation to the question.  Are all RMWeb members railway modellers, for example?

 

And of course the fundamental flaw in that analysis is that it assumes that modellers either belong to a club and/or are members of RMWeb.

 

When I was exhibition manager for our club, we reckoned (very roughly) that 20% of the people through the door belonged to a club.  Probably another 20% just came along because "something" was on.  That would leave about 50-60% (I would not want to be too precise) who at least have a direct interest in model railways.  Judging by the number who exited with a bag in their hands most were actively buying models, kits or parts.  So you might well be able to double the roughly 150k already identified.

[Guest Jack Benson]

My simple philosophy is to be a modeller of railways there needs to be a model railway. It doesn't matter if it is a loft or an Ikea box, there has to be a railway, otherwise we are mere collectors of things in boxes.

 

Cheers and Stay Safe

 

[Dungrange]

1 minute ago, John Harris said:

Kevin is quite right, "members" on a forum do not equate to active modellers and certainly cannot be extrapolated upwards.  A more accurate statistic would be "active" (posted in the last month) members.

 

As an example, the now defunct, "Military Modelling" magazine had around 16,000 members on their forums, but only a fraction of that as subscribers / regular purchasers of the magazine, and it folded through lack of sales.

 

These are both potentially valid points, but if adjusting your base point, you also need to adjust your scaling factors to the same metric.  I'm not sure how to find the number of "active members" on this site (by your definition), but let's for the sake of argument say that it's half of the member accounts.  That would therefore give us a base figure of say 20,000.  However, if I go back to my fellow club members, although I know around a quarter have posted on here at some time, potentially only half of those have posted in the last month because a know there are a few infrequent visitors.  That therefore means that I might end up applying a scaling factor of eight rather than four and therefore I'd still end up in the same ballpark.

 

I'd therefore have either:

40,000 (Total RMweb accounts) / 0.25 (Proportion of E&LMRC members who have an RMWeb account)  = 160,000; or

20,000 (assumed RMWeb accounts that have posted content in the last month) / 0.125 (Estimate of the proportion of E&LMRC members who have posted on RMweb in the last month) = 160,000.

 

What you're highlighting in your first point is the importance of ensuring that your baseline figure that you extrapolate from and the survey that you use to extrapolate must be consistent. If they are not, then you've no hope of getting the 'right' answer.

 

As for "Military Modelling", was it not possible to be a military modeller without buying the magazine?  I post on RMWeb, but generally don't by BRM.  Does the fact that I post on RMWeb make me a railway modeller or can I never be a railway modeller unless I buy BRM?  Ultimately, I'd argue that you could be a military modeller without buying "Military Modelling" magazine and therefore if you had 16,000 people on the forum, there are at least 16,000 people interested in military modelling.  The fact that only, say, 2,000 of these may have bought the magazine indicates one of two things: the magazine didn't provide value for money; or simply the number of people who are interested in a subject is many times greater than the circulation figures for a relevant magazine.

 

It would for example be possible to conduct a survey on here asking members of RMWeb how many issues of BRM magazine they have purchased (not read) over the last 12 months and then use that proportion to scale up the circulation figures for BRM.  If say one in six members on here regularly buy BRM, then you scale the magazine circulation figures by six to get an estimate of the size of the hobby.  That is, say six times a circulation figure of something like 25,000 copies of each issue of the magazine would give a estimated number of railway modellers in the region of 150,000.  You could conduct a similar survey using Model Rail magazine or Railway Modeller and each would give a slightly different answer (based on how representative the sample is), but I think you'll find that whatever method you use, you'll end up with a figure somewhere between 100,000 and 200,000.

[sncf231e]

About half of the people I know are Railway modellers, so it must be about half of 8.000.000.000 worldwide and some 35 million in the UK.

Regards

Fred

[brian777999]

1 hour ago, sncf231e said:

About half of the people I know are Railway modellers, so it must be about half of 8.000.000.000 worldwide and some 35 million in the UK.

Regards

Fred

 

So that's why second hand wagons are getting so expensive now !

[AY Mod]

1 hour ago, Dungrange said:

I'd therefore have either:

40,000 (Total RMweb accounts) / 0.25 (Proportion of E&LMRC members who have an RMWeb account)  = 160,000; or

20,000 (assumed RMWeb accounts that have posted content in the last month) / 0.125 (Estimate of the proportion of E&LMRC members who have posted on RMweb in the last month) = 160,000.

 

The initial question, aside from being largely unanswerable as has already been discussed by members, is not particularly relevant. Many hobbies/sports say they're first, second or third most popular and leave me scratching my head and saying "Really?". It's often said that horse racing is the second most popular sport in the country; really? Certainly not by participants and I'd question it in terms of physical audience and TV/online audience too. If this https://www.racingfuture.com/content/horse-racing-continues-be-uk’s-2nd-most-popular-sport-after-football attempts to qualify it it's an even more puzzling approach. They're pretty meaningless tags to attach to be frank.

 

Anyway; not wishing to cast aspersions on how you've arrived at a figure I think the methodology is wrong but the figure may not be far out. Out of those c40,000 accounts the majority are only very occasional visitors; people move on after a period of time (not just to the crem) but other platforms (dependent on their audience and feedback cravings) but I always like it when I see someone come back who's been off doing real-life stuff for a few years and return to a hobby comfort blanket for whatever reason. It shows the itch never leaves us. Anyway, in terms of 'active' accounts (by which I mean very regularly used, it may only be around 8,000 registered users in any chosen month. But that's only a small part of the story. We've just had our quietest month of the year (averaged over several years) and that was still over 140,000 unique visitors. Most site visitors are not members, let alone active registrants. Commercially, some may wave that figure around as an industry standard metric but I know it's not accurate as there's a combination of users using multiple devices/home and work locations/ dynamic IP addresses/automated cookie clearance etc which means a factor needs to be applied to arrive at something realistic. I've always divided it by three for something more realistic and so, we can say, that (on average) over 50,000 people use the site on a monthly basis (a figure higher than any mag circulation). There's then an even greater number for the number of visits which measures return behaviour (which is very high) plus we can see the average visit length (which is astronomically high compared to an average quoted for websites as a whole of 45 seconds) so theoretically I can tell you multiples of millions of minutes are spent on the site per month overall. It's the same principle that not every newspaper reader writes in to the letters page. Geographically the site usage is round 80% UK, a bit lower than you may assume by the nature of the content and the distribution of posters.

 

My reasonable estimate, for quite a time, has been that there are somewhere between 100,000 and 200,00 active modellers (however defined) in the UK so the conclusion you have arrived at sits within that. maybe the most accurate figure could be arrived at not by paying a data research organisation astronomical amounts but by applying the 'wisdom of the crowd' and ask every railway modeller for their estimate and then calculate the mean from those responses. Statistically that would probably provide the most accurate number (and no-one could really dispute it).

[Dungrange]

2 hours ago, Andy Hayter said:

And of course the fundamental flaw in that analysis is that it assumes that modellers either belong to a club and/or are members of RMWeb.

 

That's not correct since I'm using one sample to factor a baseline - the flaw lies with your understanding.  I'm absolutely NOT assuming that all railway modellers either belong to a club or are members of RMWeb.  If that was my assumption, I'd use addition rather than multiplication.  To help you understand.

 

We have railway modellers who are:

1. members of RMWeb but are NOT members of a model railway club;
2. members of both RMWeb AND a local model railway club;
3. members of a model railway club who are NOT members of RMWeb; and
4. NOT members of either RMWeb or a local model railway club.

ALL railway modellers MUST fit into one of these four categories.  That is an absolute certainty.  We know that the number of people in groups 1 and 2 combined is approaching 40,000 (if we ignore the argument of 'active' membership and the need to adjust that figure for duplicate accounts, individuals having died, not living in the UK etc).  What I don't know is what proportion of the RMWeb membership on here are also members of a local model railway club, so I can't split that figure down with any certainty, but I'd guess from comments in various threads that potentially only five to ten percent of those on here are members of their local model railway club.  I'll therefore use the mid-point of that range: 7.5%.  That would therefore give us approximately 37,000 railway modellers in group 1 and 3,000 in group 2.  That is the RMWeb group.

 

From my sample of local club members, I'd say that three quarters are NOT on RMWeb, so I'm effectively estimating group 3 as being three times larger than group 2, so I'm estimating group 3 to be around 9,000.  That is, I'm assuming that model railway clubs across the UK have a combined membership of around 12,000 members (groups 2 and 3 combined).  Is that reasonable?  I know that AMRSS Ltd (what was formally the Association of Model Railway Societies in Scotland) has just over 30 affiliated clubs, with a combined membership across these clubs of approximately 800 individuals.  There are probably a few clubs in Scotland not affiliated to AMRSS Ltd, but I think it's fair to say that there is potentially around 900 railway modellers in Scotland who are a member of their local model railway club.  Scotland accounts for about one twelfth of the UK population, so it would be reasonable to assume that the figure for the UK as a whole is 12 times greater.  That means that my assumption of 12,000 railway modellers across groups 2 and 3 is probably reasonable.

 

That therefore gives:

Group 1 = 37,000 (on RMWeb but not a member of a model railway club)

Group 2 = 3,000 (on RMWeb and a member of a model railway club)

Group 3 = 9,000 (a member of a model railway club, but not on RMWeb)

 

Therefore I'm assuming that the total number of railway modellers who are either on RMWeb or are a member of their local model railway club would add up to something like 49,000.

 

The big one is of course how many railway modellers are neither on RMWeb or a member of their local model railway club.  That is the largest group and the one that we know least about.  However, if my survey of local club members shows that the number of club members who are not on RMWeb is three times greater than the number who are, I can apply that same assumption to the number of individuals on RMWeb who are not members of their local club, which would give me an estimate of three times 37,000 = 111,000 (for my group 4).  Adding that very rough estimate of those who are neither on RMWeb or a member of their local model railway club give the 160,000 figure that I quoted.  I was including everyone, so there is no fundamental flaw.

 

2 hours ago, Andy Hayter said:

When I was exhibition manager for our club, we reckoned (very roughly) that 20% of the people through the door belonged to a club.  Probably another 20% just came along because "something" was on.  That would leave about 50-60% (I would not want to be too precise) who at least have a direct interest in model railways.  Judging by the number who exited with a bag in their hands most were actively buying models, kits or parts. 

 

Based on the figures you've quoted above, if 20% of exhibition attendees belonged to a club and I estimate there may be 12,000 club members in the UK, then you're indicating that the number of railway modellers who attend exhibitions may be five times that figure - ie 60,000.  That therefore means that I'm estimating that there may be at least 100,000 railway modellers in the UK who don't attend model railway exhibitions, which sounds a little on the high side.  Ultimately, the 50-60% that you think have at least a direct interest in model railways would lie within the 37,000 RMWeb members of the 111,000 non-RMWeb members that I've indicated above, so it would be wrong to try double the 150,000 or 160,000 figure already quoted. 

 

Ultimately, it's all guess work.

Edited September 18, 2020 by Dungrange

[Joseph_Pestell]

Maybe we could ask the Govt to put in a hobby question on the 2021 Census?

[AY Mod]

11 minutes ago, Dungrange said:

Ultimately, it's all guess work.

 

That's true. Another angle to look at is what proportion of modellers go to the highest attendance show (Warley)? 1%? 5%? 10%? We don't know but Warley does have a 15,000+ attendance so there's another given which guesswork can be applied to.

[TheQ]

Quoting, one shows numbers mean little, some attendees go to every show they can, some just one or a few local shows a year like me, that's 3 now we've lost two..  and of course some never go to shows.

I'm not fond of Big Shows just too crowded for me, and most of the major shows are a long way and would need an overnight stay...

 

[AY Mod]

7 minutes ago, TheQ said:

Quoting, one shows numbers mean little,

 

True but if you go beyond that you get into even more guesswork on overlapping numbers. If Joseph's census idea was taken up would it go under religion?

 

The anti-vaxxers will be telling us next it's because we'll all be DCC chipped and our show attendances monitored.

[APOLLO]

37 minutes ago, AY Mod said:

 

True but if you go beyond that you get into even more guesswork on overlapping numbers. If Joseph's census idea was taken up would it go under religion?

 

The anti-vaxxers will be telling us next it's because we'll all be DCC chipped and our show attendances monitored.

 

And we will be forced to make huffing and puffing noises , with an occasional peep peep or dee daa  !!!!!!!!!!!!

 

I would hate to think what we would be made to do at a dog show  !!

 

Brit15

[kevinlms]

1 hour ago, AY Mod said:

 

 Most site visitors are not members, let alone active registrants.

But that is something that could be questioned.

 

How many people for instance are registered on a particular computer or device, but often visit websites such as RMweb as visitors, perhaps from work, but work won't allow them to register sites like this.

 

As for it being one of the quietest months for a while. I do know people that only use the internet/email, when they are at work or some other place, such as a public library. For obvious reasons, many work places or public buildings are/have been in lock down.

How they manage at other times, I do not know. But they seem quite proud of that fact.

[Ravenser]

1 hour ago, AY Mod said:

 

That's true. Another angle to look at is what proportion of modellers go to the highest attendance show (Warley)? 1%? 5%? 10%? We don't know but Warley does have a 15,000+ attendance so there's another given which guesswork can be applied to.

 

ModelRail Scotland claims to have an even higher gate

 

Ally Pally and York must be in the 10-12,000 bracket for attendance

 

So, assuming that ModelRail Scotland and Ally Pally have minimal overlap, you should have around 25,000 unique visitors to Ally Pally + Model Rail Scotland combined

 

To suggest that 1 in 4 of all those with any degree of involvement in the hobby attend one or other seems too high. To suggest it's 1 in 8 feels more credible.

 

1 in 8 would imply 200,000 involved in the hobby

 

[Paul H Vigor]

I guess it's a useful, throw-away TV comment? Impossible to prove? Meaning that there are quite a few of us out there?

 

"How many railway modellers does it take to change a lightbulb?"

[TheQ]

2 minutes ago, Paul H Vigor said:

I guess it's a useful, throw-away TV comment? Impossible to prove? Meaning that there are quite a few of us out there?

 

"How many railway modellers does it take to change a lightbulb?"

240 /230 VAC or 12V DC, or 5V DC or 1.2V DC?

and to which scale/ gauge?

T gauge, Z Gauge, N Gauge, TT gauge, H0 gauge , OO gauge, EM Gauge, P4/S4 Gauge, S gauge, 0 Gauge, etc?

[The Johnster]

4 hours ago, Jack Benson said:

My simple philosophy is to be a modeller of railways there needs to be a model railway. It doesn't matter if it is a loft or an Ikea box, there has to be a railway, otherwise we are mere collectors of things in boxes.

 

Cheers and Stay Safe

 

Not agreeing with this; there must be many thousands of modellers who have amassed a number of items in preparation of building a model railway at some time in the future when they have the space for the layout they want.  Tomparryharry of this parish, for example, is by any standards a railway modeller, and one of considerable skill and experience, but has no layout.  He is in the process of building a shed to put it in; as the prime purpose of this shed is to house his model railway and be a workshop space for it, the shed can be considered as part of his railway, but I would consider him a modeller prior to his starting the shed project.  

 

Hope he doesn't mind my using him as an example...

[stovepipe]

2 hours ago, The Johnster said:

Not agreeing with this; there must be many thousands of modellers who have amassed a number of items in preparation of building a model railway at some time in the future when they have the space for the layout they want.  Tomparryharry of this parish, for example, is by any standards a railway modeller, and one of considerable skill and experience, but has no layout.  He is in the process of building a shed to put it in; as the prime purpose of this shed is to house his model railway and be a workshop space for it, the shed can be considered as part of his railway, but I would consider him a modeller prior to his starting the shed project.  

 

Hope he doesn't mind my using him as an example...

 

Nor me. There are people with layouts who don't use them for various reasons, but they count, but not those without who are nevertheless buildings kits and detailing stock for the eventual time when permanent space becomes available (even accepting that for some, that may never happen). And if all it takes to count is a bit of track nailed to a plank of green wood then it really isn't much of a distinction.

 

Besides all these narrow definitions do is to segregate people who are fundamentally interested in the same sort of thing.

 

 

 

[tomparryharry]

3 hours ago, The Johnster said:

Not agreeing with this; there must be many thousands of modellers who have amassed a number of items in preparation of building a model railway at some time in the future when they have the space for the layout they want.  Tomparryharry of this parish, for example, is by any standards a railway modeller, and one of considerable skill and experience, but has no layout.  He is in the process of building a shed to put it in; as the prime purpose of this shed is to house his model railway and be a workshop space for it, the shed can be considered as part of his railway, but I would consider him a modeller prior to his starting the shed project.  

 

Hope he doesn't mind my using him as an example...

 

That's all right, old chap. I'm currently modelling in 1:1 scale, does that count?  Most, if not all, of my smaller scale stuff is stowed away at present. 

 

Here's a little conundrum for you. I have worked with a volunteer bricklayer. A very skilled bricklayer, as it happens. Like me, he is semi-retired, so he's building a proper-sized railway platform, just for fun. He derives great satisfaction & euphoria, as do I. If you regard things like euphoria as a constant, then where does the euphoria kick in?

 

I'll think about this one.... 

[AndyB]

                           42

[Northmoor]

On 17/09/2020 at 17:19, spamcan61 said:

I'm interpreting 'Railway Modeller' as anybody who buys  relevant magazines or trains,  before we go down that rabbit hole; I reckon around 150K. Based on magazine circulation figures and Hornby having 75K followers on Facebook.

I agree, that's probably a reasonable definition.  If you only define railway modellers as someone who makes models, then the "box openers" (actually most of them are really "collectors") wouldn't be counted and Hornby et al would have badly underestimated their market.

[The Johnster]

In our stumbling and awkward way we seem to be chiselling at the edges of a figure that will be between 150k and 200k, and it all gets too complex after that.  That sounds about right to me; outside of my circle of railway friends including those here, I don't know anyone who does model railways.  I know two sterling millionaires, one of whom part owns a light aircraft, shook the hand of Yuri Gagarin in 1963, and have been bought a pint of beer by a serving Prime Minister of this country, who I didn't vote for.  I mention these not because they are particularly amazing, but to illustrate how rare modellers are.  

[Andy Hayter]

9 hours ago, Dungrange said:

 

 

Ultimately, it's all guess work.

 

On that I think we can agree

[PatB]

Dunno about actual numbers, but there are enough people with an interest in British outline modelling (who, one would assume, are mostly, though not exclusively, UK based) to sustain three major monthly general interest mags and at least two significant specialist monthlies on different areas. To sustain at least three general online discussion fora (although, in my excursions away from RMWeb I do notice a fair bit of overlap of active posters) and countless specialist ones. To sustain enough retailers, manufacturers and sheer product volume to fill a huge chunk of pages per month of those monthlies for ads for stuff that people are, presumably, buying in enough numbers to make it worthwhile to maintain supply. To sustain a dozen distinct and mostly extensive ranges of track from a single UK manufacturer (yes, I know Peco also export extensively, but at least some of their ranges are fairly UK specific). To sustain a very lively (in normal times) show scene. To sustain two major mass manufacturers, a dozen or two second-string, but still commercial concerns, an increasing number of commissioners and hundreds, if not thousands, of cottage industries. Oh, and a retail network that may not be the 1950s utopia of a model shop on every corner, but which still covers a good deal of the country and, indeed, has gained international reach, thanks to the Internet. To sustain several dozen active and often well resourced societies, covering most conceivable interests. 

 

Given all that, I would say that the plausible estimates, upthread, of a number in the mid-100,000s would likely represent a minimum, because I can't see a significantly smaller population having the spending power or collective enthusiasm to make that lot, and more, worthwhile. 

Edited September 18, 2020 by PatB