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2021 hopes


Hilux5972
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R-number collectors do skew the market in Hornby's direction, but that doesn't necessarily lead to duplication. Hornby don't produce (for instance) a Deltic, a Class 33 or a dozen other popular diesels that others do. They presumably just buy what is produced for sale in red boxes. Unlike modellers trying to assemble coherent combinations, gaps in the range are comparatively unimportant to collectors.

 

Hornby being the only game in town is also true for many buying their first train set, but as soon as such people consider further purchases, one of the first is likely to be a magazine, from any of which they will quickly learn Hornby are just the visible part of the iceberg.

 

John

 

 

 

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31 minutes ago, Dunsignalling said:

R-number collectors do skew the market in Hornby's direction, but that doesn't necessarily lead to duplication. Hornby don't produce (for instance) a Deltic, a Class 33

Yes they do, both off the Lima tooling.

From the Lima tooling we are yet to see 09/26/27/50/52/117 and thankfully none of the steam range.

 

of those a 26/27 would be easy, they have the 33 chassis in Railroad DC Ready already done, i’m just not sure how popular they would be.  The 09/50/52/117 are already long deprecated to newer models.

 

Lime acquisition kept Hornby in the “modern” game for nigh on 20 years, but scope for 2021 onwards is pretty limited.

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20 minutes ago, adb968008 said:

Yes they do, both off the Lima tooling.

From the Lima tooling we are yet to see 09/26/27/50/52/117 and thankfully none of the steam range.

 

of those a 26/27 would be easy, they have the 33 chassis in Railroad DC Ready already done, i’m just not sure how popular they would be.  The 09/50/52/117 are already deprecated to newer models.

 

Lime acquisition kept Hornby in the “modern” game for nigh on 20 years, but scope for 2021 onwards is pretty limited.

So, "after a fashion" and directed at the lo-fi market whereas those already made or shortly to be added by others are aimed at the more discerning who are willing to pay accordingly.

 

I doubt the competition loses much sleep over them. The problem with duplication comes where both parties are chasing the same customers, e.g. Terriers, Large Prairies etc.

 

Where the Hornby product is up to snuff, Class 50, Class 60, it's noticeable that those get left alone by others. Hornby don't, and won't, play the same game until they get their fingers burnt. That hasn't happened yet, but it probably will, sooner or later.

 

John

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2 minutes ago, adb968008 said:

Yes they do, both off the Lima tooling.

From the Lima tooling we are yet to see 09/26/27/50/52/117 and thankfully none of the steam range.

 

of those a 26/27 would be easy, they have the 33 chassis in Railroad DC Ready already done, i’m just not sure how popular they would be.  The 09/50/52/117 are already deprecated to newer models.

 

Lime acquisition kept Hornby in the “modern” game for nigh on 20 years, but scope for 2021 onwards is pretty limited.

Hi adb,

 

You are quite correct, all of the Lima models you mention were produced well over 25 years ago and were fairly good for their day, now not so much.

 

I only buy Triang Mk1's, Hornby 86's, Lima 47's and the like to repaint and detail into what I want for the fun of it and they are great for that but not much use to me straight out of the box. As you say why would the Lima model be reproduced other than for children's train sets.

 

Gibbo.

 

 

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33 minutes ago, Dunsignalling said:

 

 

Where the Hornby product is up to snuff, Class 50, Class 60, it's noticeable that those get left alone by others. 

Isnt that only natural ?

i mean why make a worse version of a model already in the market place ?

 

Anyone making a class 50, will either have to pay horrendous costs to match features like the fan, doors and grills of the incumbent, or sacrifice quality to keep the cost down. Hornby for their part, have covered nearly every possible chapter in the life of class 50’s (intercity and maroon and other preservation silliness aside).

 

The only threat I see in Hornbys range is the class 31. Nice model, bad reputation, not the best shape and quite expensive. It also suffers from not being exploited in its potential liveries. That said it would be a brave competitor to take it on, Hornby could give it both barrels in Railroad and Detailed and swamp all the liveries if a threat emerged. ( Hattons 66 ?). I think the 31 will be a lifetimes work at Hornby, and as such ive already given up... I have my 20 Lima ones and am upgrading their motors.

 

I am awaiting to see if Hornby stamps on the blossoming new 142 myself.  100 years history has no future without forward looking investment, But that means grasping at units, but management seems more interested in smoking chimneys and competitors. I’ll happily eat my words come Jan 5th if I see something brave like a class 180, 185, or even 442/455.  Sadly the long requested Electrostar looks to easily claimed by someone else, whos taking their sweet time. Trouble is we might end up with something naff, like a centre car for a Networker and make a 465.

 

 For modern, I am hoping the recent hires to Accurascale give confidence to the A team, in what to safely invest in, for modern image and what to shy away from... Modern image begins with the letter A.

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My four 50s were bought despite the gimmicks rather than because of them. The grilles are a ruddy nuisance if you have to handle the things as they are so easily displaced. They are fairly pointless (IMHO) as they stand but would come into their own if made to open and shut via DCC.

 

I only have them for sentimental reasons as they were ending their BR service as I was starting mine. All my other diesels are green (a couple in maroon, one in golden ochre and a 33 in revised NSE excepted). Only two were made by Hornby.

 

There is a full-fat 31, somewhere, in its box, that's barely been used since purchased and will be flogged when found, Mazak rot permitting. I've no idea why I bought it in the first place; in my favoured era, they didn't get down to this end of the country. The other is a Limby ED that I plan to re-chassis with Bachmann components or replace with a Dapol one.

 

John

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1 hour ago, Dunsignalling said:

Hornby being the only game in town is also true for many buying their first train set, but as soon as such people consider further purchases, one of the first is likely to be a magazine, from any of which they will quickly learn Hornby are just the visible part of the iceberg.

 

Also, as what is definitely a massive part of it now, joining a Facebook group about model railways. I am a member of a few and there are a lot of questions from people just starting out either wanting help or to see what other people are up to.

 

41 minutes ago, adb968008 said:

i’m just not sure how popular they would be.

 

I agree, it's not like the Heljan options are on the expensive end of the scale is it?

 

18 minutes ago, adb968008 said:

I am awaiting to see if Hornby stamps on the blossoming new 142 myself.  100 years history has no future without forward looking investment, But that means grasping at units, but management seems more interested in Chimneys and competitors.

 

I know we have covered this before but I don't get the stigma about units with manufacturers and buyers. Bachmann seem to like a unit, although of late most haven't been up my street (158 in Northern please, and I will probably have a 150 when they turn up) but historically they do have quite a good line up for the modern scene. I'd like to see a DCC ready XC 220/221 and Northern 170 from them.

 

If Hornby were interested in units there are plenty to go at I think. It's weird though the only unit I think they have done other than the ones you mentioned earlier in recent memory was the Brighton Belle which is a bit niche IMO. Although it did run for a long time.

 

But the issue is that somebody who'll pay £160 for a loco with only basic lighting won't pay £220 for a 2 car DMU crawling with features including built in speakers.

 

26 minutes ago, adb968008 said:

Hornby for their part, have covered nearly every possible chapter in the life of class 50’s

 

Including the GBRF ones which look to be selling very well, brain overruling heart being the reason I haven't bought them both.

 

36 minutes ago, Dunsignalling said:

Class 50, Class 60, it's noticeable that those get left alone by others

 

The 67 is very good too IMO other than the fuel tank which is at least for a functional purpose AFAIK. OTOH the 67 ended up a bit of a funny one anyway but I like mine.

 

The thing is, as the market moves towards the present (which it inevitably will do as the average D.O.B. of the customer moves upward) it will also move towards present day. The less people there are around who remember steam trains in full service the less they will be modelled I think, and I expect it's a significant amount of Hornby's sales.

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Thats the rub with models like the 31/50 and HST.

 

some like features, others dont.

So it will be a case of pleasing some of the people but not all of them.

 

Foibles aside, when it comes to technical aspects: detail, engineering and performance, ( as opposed to Consumer metrics of Livery, Accuracy and Price),  I for one see these three as the OO gauge Magnum opus when it comes to diesels, challenged only by Dapols class 52 and Hattons 66. (Even though ive walked from the 31 myself).

 

Others hate movable features and too many bits that can come loose.

The challenge is making a challenger model, that comes at a 2021 competitive price point, that still tips the scales to make enough people to move from the incumbent to the competitor... theres much easier fruit to grab... to me the class 06, 20 look exposed.
 

The bottom line is every Tops diesel class, except 01, 13, 19 and 69 has been modelled or claimed, the only way forwards is duplications, electrics or units, none are without cost and risk.. but its a modern world, so to me units look least risk & most longevity into the future, mid-to later life ones offering both several backwards liveries and future potential, therefore lower risk.

 

From an enthusiasts perspective now pacers are gone, units like the 455 are going to be next for enthusiasts attention as they retire, but class 319 offers more longevity, scope etc, theres tons of greenfield in units, and would hazard less risk than Coronation Scot coaches and APT, which is doubtful will sell more than 1 per customer.

 

 

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23 minutes ago, adb968008 said:

Thats the rub with models like the 31/50 and HST.

 

some like features, others dont.

So it will be a case of pleasing some of the people but not all of them.

 

Foibles aside, when it comes to detail, engineering and performance, I for one see these three as the OO gauge Magnum opus when it comes to diesels, challenged only by Dapols class 52 and Hattons 66. (Even though ive walked from the 31 myself).

 

Others hate movable features and too many bits that can come loose.

The challenge is making a challenger model, that comes at a 2021 competitive price point, that still tips the scales to make enough people to move from the incumbent to the competitor.

 

 

Fact is, though, despite demonstrating what they can do in the field of post-steam traction, as cited above, Hornby generally seem content to leave the field clear for others and bumble on with outdated, inherited tooling in Railroad. In most cases, Hornby are not the incumbent at the quality end.

 

A completely different attitude emerged when outdated, bought-in Railroad tooling of a little steam loco that must have paid for itself several times over looked like being eclipsed. Before that, though, Bachmann had parked a 4F-shaped usurper on their lawn which was completely ignored.

 

Purely down to the perceived strength of the two challengers presumably.

 

John  

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I think perhaps the SR and BR built Walrus ballast hoppers, along with the BR built Whale hoppers would be a nice-to-have. Seeing as the sealion and seacow hoppers have already been done, these seem to be missing from RTR manufacturers. 

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12 hours ago, Gibbo675 said:

Hi Folks,

 

Why on Earth do manufacturers insist on duplicating models quite so often?

 

Gibbo.


Simple....there's now multiple manufacturers all looking to make it big in the industry and fewer and fewer models to make. Manufacturers don't insist on duplicating each other. More often than not they don't know what each other are doing until it's too late and both manufacturers have already paid a lot of money for CAD and tooling.

The question remains, do you scrap all the work and money put into the project? Or do you go ahead and atleast make some money on whatever you can sell? No one has duplicated models on purpose. The very idea of manufacturers duplicating models is just another rmweb conspiracy theory pushed forward by bashers of a certain brand. And most of the time, such people know very little about the R&D and manufacturing of a model.

Regarding your suggestions:-
AC electrics:
- Class 81 (25 produced)
- Class 82 (10 produced)
- Class 83 (15 produced)
- Class 84 (10 produced)
I know we have always been told that electrics don't sell. I personally do not believe it, however I do believe that they sell slower than diesels and electrics. Out of the 4 AC electrics you listed only the Class 81 has a large(ish) fleet. The remainder don't have such a large fleet and they don't really have the appeal of a prototype loco nor do they have the kind of reputation that other British AC electrics have worldwide like the Class 86, Class 87, Class 90, Class 91 and Class 92. Do you think manufacturers are ready to part with a large 6 figure sum for these? If they really were that popular, it would've been done. Bachmann would've done it.

Multiple units (DMUs, AC EMUs and DC EMUs):
- Multiple units require more tooling and therefore more investment. Even a simple 2-car multiple unit will need a lot more investment and that's something most manufacturers will think about 10 times before biting the bullet. If you think about it, most of the multiple units done in OO and N scale today consist mainly of single car, 2-car and at time a 3-car set. There's very few multiple units for sale that are 4-car or more.
- Multiple units are also much more complex with their limited space and so on. With the demands we as consumers set these days, manufacturing such things is more of a challenge than 10 or 15 years ago.
- Multiple units manufactured to the specs we expect to see today are expensive and a lot of people are priced out of it. The solution is to probably have a Railroad spec multiple unit that will be cheaper to manufacturer and therefore cheaper to buy, but "modellers" and "rivet counters" will not have it.
- Do you really think a manufacturer is ready to shove out a greater 6-figure sum for these? I highly doubt it. If they were that popular, it would've been done by a company like Bachmann a long time ago.

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8 hours ago, adb968008 said:

Thats the rub with models like the 31/50 and HST.

 

8 hours ago, adb968008 said:

Foibles aside, when it comes to technical aspects: detail, engineering and performance, ( as opposed to Consumer metrics of Livery, Accuracy and Price),  I for one see these three as the OO gauge Magnum opus when it comes to diesels, challenged only by Dapols class 52 and Hattons 66. (Even though ive walked from the 31 myself).

 

I'd argue the 60 needs to be in Hornby's top 3, arguably top 1! The 50 is the only one of the 3 you mention I haven't had my hands on but the 60 is at least better than the HST and 31 IMO.

 

Dapol 68 I'd put in the list too as it is (in my opinion) excellent.

 

8 hours ago, Dunsignalling said:

Purely down to the perceived strength of the two challengers presumably.

 

I'd guess so. If the pie is only so big they'll look at how much of it they they think they can have. With most models I expect the market won't be big enough to go 50/50 and it be worth it for both parties. With most challengers Hornby would think their name and brand awareness would win the majority, but that might not be the case with Bachmann.

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10 hours ago, adb968008 said:

Yes they do, both off the Lima tooling.

From the Lima tooling we are yet to see 09/26/27/50/52/117 and thankfully none of the steam range.

 

of those a 26/27 would be easy, they have the 33 chassis in Railroad DC Ready already done, i’m just not sure how popular they would be.  The 09/50/52/117 are already long deprecated to newer models.

 

Lime acquisition kept Hornby in the “modern” game for nigh on 20 years, but scope for 2021 onwards is pretty limited.

 I can’t see that the 26/27 would go down well . Heljan have much better models that have been around for a good few years , so all model rail enthusiasts that want a 26/27 will have got it by now . I think also Heljan do a steady stream of new liveries to keep the market satisfied .  So who would buy a Railroad 26/27 ? Ok I know it’s the cheaper end of market , but would there really be a huge market .  The models were fairly basic too . I had a Lima 27 . It went just as soon as I could get my hands on a Heljan one . There really is no comparison in this case  I get Railroad 20s,31s,37s,40s, 47s as they are reasonable models , even Deltics can scrub up ok , even though a bit short . 
 

Now if they could convert a 117 to a 116  and do a Driving Trailer instead of having 2 brakes then that could upset the apple cart . To me Bachmann made a mistake doing a 117 , a 116 would have been much better received . Even I might have paid the money they were asking if it had been a 116  in Trans Clyde livery. Hornby could capitalise on this . 

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No I agree, I cant see it being popular popular with enthusiasts.

 

The only scenario I can see a 26/27 floating is a trainset. (A cheap big diesel), such as a “Highland freight” or such like. It maybe useful to a few modellers who still have Lima 26/7/33 who want a chassis upgrade.

Hornbys short on BO-BOs which might be pennies cheaper than CO-COs and bigger than 0-4 -0’s, but who knows.

 

But going back to my original point, was about Hornby Class 55 and 33... by all accounts a 26/7/33 tooling is better than a class 55, they still made it. The 26/7 wasnt that bad, but like the 44/5/6 I found its just not a popular class.. the Heljan 26/7 seem to linger too, and think the duplicated 45’s might too once everyones got their initial fill.

 

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The crux of the matter is that Hornby will primarily choose their future projects on the basis of potential returns set against the costs of development and production.

 

Their current position seems to be that, for them, there's still more to be made from steam-outline. That's, at least in part, because in post-steam (excepting the already-mentioned "stars") they are way off the pace. Bringing a significant number of the rest up to the market average level, let alone compete with the best, would require very major investment.

 

The Limby diesels are really only continued because Hornby have no other way to maintain any real breadth in the sector.  They maintain (at minimal cost) a presence in, and derive some return from, the kiddy/beginner/modifier/skint/tight segments of the market that hold little/no appeal for competitors. Yes, Bachmann's small Junior range continues and they've taken on TTTE, but that's definitely not aimed at the latter two!

 

John

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1 minute ago, Dunsignalling said:

Their current position seems to be that, for them, there's still more to be made from steam-outline. That's, at least in part, because in post-steam (excepting the already-mentioned "stars") they are way off the pace. Bringing a significant number of those up to the market average level, let alone the best, would require very major investment.

 

I think the thing is that if they aren't careful post steam will have been done to death and everybody (including newcomers/usurpers) other than them will be well dug into the market with strong models, and has been already said, there are very few locos left undone from post steam and only a few more that realistically would justify another go at the moment. I expect that the market proportions will be shifting towards post steam and therefore if they aren't careful they'd be having to shoehorn their way into a market that is no longer theirs for the taking.

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1 hour ago, adb968008 said:

No I agree, I cant see it being popular popular with enthusiasts.

 

The only scenario I can see a 26/27 floating is a trainset. (A cheap big diesel), such as a “Highland freight” or such like. It maybe useful to a few modellers who still have Lima 26/7/33 who want a chassis upgrade.

Hornbys short on BO-BOs which might be pennies cheaper than CO-COs and bigger than 0-4 -0’s, but who knows.

 

But going back to my original point, was about Hornby Class 55 and 33... by all accounts a 26/7/33 tooling is better than a class 55, they still made it. The 26/7 wasnt that bad, but like the 44/5/6 I found its just not a popular class.. the Heljan 26/7 seem to linger too, and think the duplicated 45’s might too once everyones got their initial fill.

 

 

I would have thought if any Bo-Bos were to make a comeback then the Class 25 would have been more likely. We've not seen anything from that tooling for quite some time so it may no longer be possible, but they do have a habit of making spoiler releases as competitors announce or release the same class and it does fit in the 'been in the Hornby range for a long time' category that they get territorial over. It would have disadvantages of less livery options compared to Class 26 but possibly a wider appeal. I would think Heljan will have filled the railroad to high spec pricing range with the discounts or pre-owned models for Class 26/27 so cant really see where Hornby would fit in there.

 

But if they are looking at Bo-bos to produce, they do have Class 67 tooling both in Limby and full-fat versions so I'd think that more likely for the trainset market as something that kids may recognise or have seen.

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33 minutes ago, TomScrut said:

 

I think the thing is that if they aren't careful post steam will have been done to death and everybody (including newcomers/usurpers) other than them will be well dug into the market with strong models, and has been already said, there are very few locos left undone from post steam and only a few more that realistically would justify another go at the moment. I expect that the market proportions will be shifting towards post steam and therefore if they aren't careful they'd be having to shoehorn their way into a market that is no longer theirs for the taking.

I think it's arguable that's already happened to a significant extent. Classes 24/5 are already broadly "done" (or very soon will be) at all levels above Railroad.

 

That said, I don't consider that interest in modelling the steam era will decline in line with the demise of those of us who "were there". MPD layouts apart, it's difficult to produce anything authentic and modern with any real operational interest unless one has plenty of space to play with. 2/3 car units shuffling up and down an 8-foot plank don't really do it, at least not for me.

 

John

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8 minutes ago, TomScrut said:

 

 I expect that the market proportions will be shifting towards post steam and therefore if they aren't careful they'd be having to shoehorn their way into a market that is no longer theirs for the taking.

I think thats sums it up perfectly.


Hornby produced an excellant story film on its 100 years in January, which unfortunately sums it up perfectly.. its one mans life beginning to the end, but with no generational handover, just updates to the same mans model toolings, continually looking backwards over his shoulder to the past. It ends without a future.

if the film continued a further 60 seconds, I suspect the script, sadly will be when the elderly gent passes, his memories will be “model trains” starting at 99p on ebay and Hornby has 1 less customer.


Then take the whole 2020 100 year collection it’s steam, Did the HST or 37130 or Mammoth not contribute to Hornbys 100 years in any way at all ? I’d rather have 50001 Dreadnought in large logo blue, than yet another iteration of Clan Line... but 100 years of Hornby wasnt about any one other than grandad...fair enough, but what happens next, or is that it ?

 

 

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30 minutes ago, Dunsignalling said:

I think it's arguable that's already happened to a significant extent.

 

That said, I don't consider that interest in modelling the steam era will decline in line with the demise of those of us who "were there". MPD layouts apart, it's difficult to produce anything truly modern with any real operational interest unless one has plenty of space to play with. 2/3 car units shuffling up and down an 8-foot plank don't really do it, at least not for me.

 

John

Same applies to steam.

Duchesses dont do well on an 8ft plank either.


Modern image interest in short layout definitely leans towards freight in a constrained space, but Units fit neatly into that environment very well.. trouble is very few of them have been made. 
An EMU/DMU has much more use on a “plank” for sure, but the last “modern” unit Hornbys tooled was back in 2001 (class 466)... Bachmann by comparison has turned out 150/1 & 150/2,158/159/166/170/171/221/350/450.

 

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25 minutes ago, adb968008 said:

Same applies to steam.

Duchesses dont do well on an 8ft plank either.


Modern image interest in short layout definitely leans towards freight in a constrained space, but Units fit neatly into that environment very well.. trouble is very few of them have been made. 
An EMU/DMU has much more use on a “plank” than a class 81-92 for sure, but the last “modern” unit Hornbys tooled was back in 2001 (class 466)... Bachmann by comparison has turned out 150/1 & 150/2,158/159/166/170/171/221/350/450

True, but at least if one only has room for an appropriate STEAM loco and 3 coaches, operational activity can amount to rather more than just changing direction.

 

The problem with short freight in cramped settings is that it's vanishingly rare these days so requires a hefty dose of modellers' licence.

 

John

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17 minutes ago, Dunsignalling said:

True, but at least if one only has room for an appropriate loco and 3 coaches, operational activity can amount to rather more than just changing direction.

 

John

But you cant even do that...

 

if I were to make a “2020” , non-mpd 8ft plank, the only acceptable Hornby items in it would be a 67 or a 60,  and the Network Rail test train coaches, not even sure about any coaches, wagons, nor even 2020 era structures, signals etc...

There is nothing to buy, unless I pick legacy structures or railroad items.

 

if modern image has no future, then the deviation could be nodding towards preserved railways, it gives more money to old rope... but then they tend to shy away from preserved railway locomotive numbers/liveries and stock, unless its on the mainline... out of all the preserved black fives, only 44932 and 45379 in its preserved condition has been done...

How  popular would a 44871/45407 pack with add on WCRC coaches be ? 
The problem is, its forwards looking.
Were more likely to get 45407 weathered in 1968 condition, but to be relevant you need to be at retirement age to remember it in reality, and ignores that 44871/45407 have now been “preserved” twice as long than it was in service.

 

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21 minutes ago, adb968008 said:

But you cant even do that...

 

if I were to make a “2020” , non-mpd 8ft plank, the only acceptable Hornby items in it would be a 67 or a 60,  and the Network Rail test train coaches, not even sure about any coaches, wagons, nor even 2020 era structures, signals etc...

And it would usually be topped and tailed so not even any fun to be had running it round! There's only a finite amount of NR activity on offer. e.g. Exeter - Salisbury only sees a track recorder (5 coaches, T&T) fortnightly and a ballast train about once a year. Even in the 90s, I normally dealt with one of the latter on alternate Thursdays. These days, ballast mainly comes in by road in dumpy bags.

 

With smaller steam era locos and wagons almost everyone has room for a small yard that can handle and re-form 6-8 wagon trains.

 

John

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21 minutes ago, Dunsignalling said:

 

With smaller steam era locos and wagons almost everyone has room for a small yard that can handle and re-form 6-8 wagon trains.

 

But you would need to be nearly 70 years old, to be able to recreate it from personal memory.

 

I’ll throw another one at you...  a few weeks back I saw a 37 on an ecs at Wimbledon, when I saw it, I realise the consist was a mix of vans and BSKs, it brought back memories of 1980’s parcels trains...

 


Then I realised, its nearly 30 years since last time I saw a parcels train... no one under adult age will remember scenes like this on a regular basis.

 

So why act surprised that kids arent interested, save those who bury their heads in books, websites, forums etc to learn about a historical time before theirs.

 

parcels trains arent modern any more, unless its a class 325.

 

But, the railways are full of enthusiasts of younger age still, many several liveries, wagons etc does appeal, its just not Hornby making them... but others are.

 

 

Edited by adb968008
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