2021 hopes

[TomScrut]

48 minutes ago, Dunsignalling said:

interest in modelling the steam era will decline in line with the demise of those of us who "were there"

 

Not in line (i.e. proportionately) but I think there will be a trend, and as you are aware I think, Hornby's eggs are very much in that basket!

 

21 minutes ago, adb968008 said:

if I were to make a “2020” , non-mpd 8ft plank, the only acceptable Hornby items in it would be a 67 or a 60,  and the Network Rail test train coaches, not even sure about any coaches, wagons, nor even 2020 era structures, signals etc...

There is nothing to buy, unless I pick legacy structures or railroad items.

 

Yep, freight wise from Hornby all I have is the Class 60, it pulls other people's wagons, and some MHAs which are part of an infrastructure train.

 

Test trains and passenger side there are more options but from what I know all the wagons they do relevant to modern day and of a quality competitive to other makes are the container wagons, MHAs and CDAs.

 

[Iskra]

13 minutes ago, adb968008 said:

But you would need to be nearly 70 years old, to be able to recreate it from personal memory.

 

I’ll throw another one at you...  a few weeks back I saw a 37 on an ecs at Wimbledon, when I saw it, I realise the consist was a mix of vans and BSKs, it brought back memories of 1980’s parcels trains...

 

Then I realised, its nearly 30 years since last time I saw a parcels train... no one under adult age will remember scenes like this on a regular basis.

 

So why act surprised that kids arent interested, save those who bury their heads in books, websites, forums etc to learn about a historical time before theirs.

 

parcels trains arent modern any more, unless its a class 325.

 

But, the railways are full of enthusiasts of younger age still, many several liveries, wagons etc does appeal, its just not Hornby making them... but others are.

 

 

While your general point is correct, 67’s on RES parcels stock were still going this side of the millennium. 325’s have also been hauled by class 90’s. 

Edited December 15, 2020 by Iskra

[Dunsignalling]

15 minutes ago, adb968008 said:

But you would need to be nearly 70 years old, to be able to recreate it from personal memory.

 

I’ll throw another one at you...  a few weeks back I saw a 37 on an ecs at Wimbledon, when I saw it, I realise the consist was a mix of vans and BSKs, it brought back memories of 1980’s parcels trains...

 

Then I realised, its nearly 30 years since last time I saw a parcels train... no one under adult age will remember scenes like this on a regular basis.

 

So why act surprised that kids arent interested, save those who bury their heads in books, websites, forums etc to learn about a historical time before theirs.

 

But, the railways are full of enthusiasts of younger age still, many several liveries, wagons etc does appeal, its just not Hornby making them... but others are.

 

 

Agreed, but the nature of today's railway is that apart from watching trains go by, there's little else to see in most places. I'm 68 and still interested enough to get out and about with my camera, but the current scene is (for 99.99% of the time) so devoid of operational variety that I wouldn't contemplate modelling it.

 

John

Edited December 15, 2020 by Dunsignalling

[zigzag]

I think 1 or 2 of the following would fill the large (-ish) steam loco for 2021

 

V2

Manor

Saint

Turbomotive

 

A couple of these have been ripe for picking off the opposition for a few years, and by now development could be sufficiently advanced at Hornby for a 2021 release

 

I expect a small tank loco from the North East or West

 

And finally an LMS 2-6-2 tank could be a popular release

 

Personally Id love to see an S160 & WD 2-10-0 but may have to wait on these

 

Another industrial could be on the cards, but may wait until 2022 given lead times and the need to see how the 0-6-0 Peckett performed.

 

For the similar reasons I feel Lion/Titfield Thunderbolt may not be seen until 2022, though we may see some more L&M rolling stock sooner

 

Ist gen DMU have been touted but although a Cl124 would make my year I think the RRP on these may be too much for Hornby to take on

 

D&E offers lots of scope for reliveries but Hornby often seem to miss the open goals, blue/large logo Cl56, blue Cl31 with headcode box, blue 08, instead going for rathe rmore niche liveries.

 

 

 

 

[TomScrut]

9 minutes ago, Dunsignalling said:

Agreed, but the nature of today's railway is that apart from watching trains go by, there's little else to see in most places. I'm 68 and still interested enough to get out and about with my camera, but the current scene is (for 99.99% of the time) so devoid of operational variety that I wouldn't contemplate modelling it.

 

John

 

I suppose it depends what one looks for. I am building a layout which will be more or less automated in terms of the driving, and the "operation" is actually pathing the trains etc. rather than shunting operations which is where I think you're coming from. So in theory I can have 12 trains parked and 4 running with little to no operational interest other than stopping one and starting another, but I will be trying to run more than that which then provides the interest and challenge.

[Dunsignalling]

7 minutes ago, zigzag said:

I think 1 or 2 of the following would fill the large (-ish) steam loco for 2021

 

V2

Manor

Saint

Turbomotive

 

A couple of these have been ripe for picking off the opposition for a few years, and by now development could be sufficiently advanced at Hornby for a 2021 release

 

I expect a small tank loco from the North East or West

 

And finally an LMS 2-6-2 tank could be a popular release

 

Personally Id love to see an S160 & WD 2-10-0 but may have to wait on these

 

Another industrial could be on the cards, but may wait until 2022 given lead times and the need to see how the 0-6-0 Peckett performed.

 

For the similar reasons I feel Lion/Titfield Thunderbolt may not be seen until 2022, though we may see some more L&M rolling stock sooner

 

Ist gen DMU have been touted but although a Cl124 would make my year I think the RRP on these may be too much for Hornby to take on

 

D&E offers lots of scope for reliveries but Hornby often seem to miss the open goals, blue/large logo Cl56, blue Cl31 with headcode box, blue 08, instead going for rathe rmore niche liveries.

 

 

 

 

All-new premium V2 just done (Bachmann), Manor on the way (Dapol) so Hornby would be getting into duplication scenarios with either of them.

 

John

[DutyDruid]

Semi-common knowledge: until COVID rolled into town I used to do a weekly turn (sometimes more) as duty manager in my local model shop.  With that in mind, and just to pick up on a couple of recurrent themes that keep surfacing here:

 

1.  Hornby is the only game in town: Yes, that is a perception that in my experience is particularly common amongst the uninitiated.  The number of times I have tried to sell a Bachmann set as a Christmas present only to be told, "No, I promised his mum I would buy him a Hornby".  Sometimes this has been in the face of financial common sense; did you know that all Hornby sets have 3rd radius curves and Bachmann sets have 2nd radius curve?  If you want to buy a double track train set the cheapest way to do it is to buy 1 x Hornby, 1 x Bachmann plus some points and odd lengths of track to give sidings and a cross over; you get 2 trains, a complete layout and 2 controllers for your money.  On one occasion I remember particularly well a customer spent well over £100 more than she needed to have done because she was hung up on the fact that it had to be Hornby and she insisted that she had been told to buy separate track pieces rather than the track expansion packs.

 

2.  You ask "The Guv" what pays his fixed overheads and he will tell you that it's the Christmas Train Set (and Scalextric set)  rush, it is NOT people like me and other Club members who pop in to buy the odd pot of paint or container of glue.  We can froth all we want here, the reality is that in order to have a local model shop to pop into for that tube of glue the most important decision that Hornby will make will be what next years sets will contain!

 

3.  The debate about HiFi vs RailRoad: This might be heresy, but I can tell you that I know (because I know who bought them and they told me what they were going to do) of at least 2 RailRoad Schools class locos that have been regauged to EM and are regularly being run on exhibition layouts.  Don't dis RailRoad, after all, it wasn't that long ago one of my stock exhibition demonstrations was carving up Lima Westerns and 73s and super detailing them, and if anything doing that is now easier than it was back then because with home 3d printing, and easy-access etching, making the parts is no longer an issue.

 

Elliott

Edited December 15, 2020 by DutyDruid
spelling correction - misuse of the word by

[Dunsignalling]

2 minutes ago, TomScrut said:

 

I suppose it depends what one looks for. I am building a layout which will be more or less automated in terms of the driving, and the "operation" is actually pathing the trains etc. rather than shunting operations which is where I think you're coming from. So in theory I can have 12 trains parked and 4 running with little to no operational interest other than stopping one and starting another, but I will be trying to run more than that which then provides the interest and challenge.

Not quite the same as joining/splitting steam hauled expresses with the attendant loco moves on/off shed that tends to float my boat.

 

John

[The Stationmaster]

Hornby seem to think - and presumably they know from their sales figures - that certain types of steam outline models sell well (and some don't sell so well).  Obviously judging by their recent history they still have a fixation with 'big' engines and while more of today's youngsters see and travel behind steam far more so than travelling on contemporary traction Hornby seem to have a keenness in going for historical big engines as well.  For example how many people are there around today who saw the W1 in its original form yet that version seems to be selling very well according to some RMweb members.

 

If Hornby can make money selling history that's nearly 100 years old the obvious question might be why can't they make money selling history that is around 60 years old ?    Only they can answer that.  As for the contemporary scene it does I expect come back to the same sort of market forces - as identified by John ('Dunsignalling') - the modern railway is very bland and operates in a very simplistic fashion compared with even 30 years ago.  Colourful (?) liveries are one thing but for youngsters there is probably far more fun in playing with wagons you can put things in, and 4 wheelers are cheaper to make and buy than big bogie wagons.

 

We can but assume that Hornby have a pretty good idea of what sells although we equally know that they don't always get it right from their unsold stock numbers.  but those numbers are in monetary terms.  Within that, apart from the likely involvement of J15s, we don't know what lurks in the warehouse or how much of it is down to wrong initial choices or over-ordering Year 2 models.

 

So maybe 2021 could see a new 'big' steam outline model - that would certainly fit with Hornby's recent marketing.

Edited December 15, 2020 by The Stationmaster
Correct date!!

[Legend]

I certainly perceive Hornby as a big steam engine producer  and I think the last couple of years has proved that . A switch away from the small black 0-6-0 , perhaps prompted by all those J15s  still in stock , back to the glory machines like Princess Pacifics, W1s and big LNER Pacifics , even though these are ungainly !  So I do expect a big new steam loco in 2021 range somewhere.   DutyDruids observations on running model shop is interesting . Maybe the market for trainsets is not as moribund as I thought . 

Edited December 15, 2020 by Legend

[Rockalaucher101]

4 minutes ago, The Stationmaster said:

So maybe 2012 could see a new 'big' steam outline model - that would certainly fit with Hornby's recent marketing.

One of the reasons I feel that Turbomotive is more likely to come from Hornby. They have proved that they are not afraid of producing historical one offs or loco's with only a few members ever created. The P2, W1 and Rocket are prime examples.

I personally would love an RTR Turbomotive. Probablty won't get a W1 because the version I wanted sold out in seconds but I'd be primed and ready if Turbomotive got announced. Could even include the modifications made in later life, like with Hush Hush...

[adb968008]

48 minutes ago, Dunsignalling said:

All-new premium V2 just done (Bachmann), Manor on the way (Dapol) so Hornby would be getting into duplication scenarios with either of them.

 

John

Just like the Rebuilt Scot, B1, 4MT, Class 71, Lord Nelson, A4, mk1’s, Radial, Terrier, mk2f, APT....

 

Hornbys not afraid of duplication, even if its competing with itself.. class 31, B17, class 5, scotsman, A4, 47, HAA...

 

I wouldnt be surprised if we saw a 94xx from Hornby in a few weeks time. A manor to me looks quite an obvious bite too...just stick a new body on a grange.

 

 

Edited December 15, 2020 by adb968008

[Rockalaucher101]

11 minutes ago, adb968008 said:

Just like the Rebuilt Scot, B1, 4MT, Class 71, Lord Nelson, A4, mk1’s, Radial, Terrier, mk2f, APT....

 

Hornbys not afraid of duplication, even if its competing with itself.. class 31, B17, class 5, scotsman, A4, 47, HAA...

 

I wouldnt be surprised if we saw a 94xx from Hornby in a few weeks time. A manor to me looks quite an obvious bite too...just stick a new body on a grange.

 

 

Wouldn't be surprised if Hornby had the Manor already tooled and ready to go. Who knows what they've been slowly developing in secret. I mean the terriers kind of came out of nowhere.

[adb968008]

53 minutes ago, The Stationmaster said:

As for the contemporary scene it does I expect come back to the same sort of market forces - as identified by John ('Dunsignalling') - the modern railway is very bland and operates in a very simplistic fashion compared with even 30 years ago.  Colourful (?) liveries are one thing but for youngsters there is probably far more fun in playing with wagons you can put things in, and 4 wheelers are cheaper to make and buy than big bogie wagons.

 

We can but assume that Hornby have a pretty good idea of what sells although we equally know that they don't always get it right from their unsold stock numbers.  

I don't buy that argument, because I cant buy that product.. they dont make it.

if they don't make it, how can they tell if its a success or not ?

 

Theres only a class 67, 390,395 and an Azuma in 19 years.

Of that the 390,395 seem to have sold oodles in trainsets, the Azuma is quite hard to find. The 67 to me was an odd choice, but like the 60, a retool.

 

But you cant say something doesnt sell, if you havent tried, especially when your competitors have, and are busy retooling them all  (150/158/159/166/171!), and another competitor emerges from nowhere and is literally taking the modern image wagon market by storm... PFAs..?
 

if you just said they focus on steam and trainsets, then I wouldnt have replied, i’d have just agreed with you.

 

 

Edited December 15, 2020 by adb968008

[Legend]

19 minutes ago, adb968008 said:

Just like the Rebuilt Scot, B1, 4MT, Class 71, Lord Nelson, A4, mk1’s, Radial, Terrier, mk2f, APT....

 

Hornbys not afraid of duplication, even if its competing with itself.. class 31, B17, class 5, scotsman, A4, 47, HAA...

 

I wouldnt be surprised if we saw a 94xx from Hornby in a few weeks time. A manor to me looks quite an obvious bite too...just stick a new body on a grange.

 

 

 

I think if the 94XX was on the cards , it was when Bachmann announced theirs 4 years ago (?) . They would have accelerated it and it would have been announced last year  to get in first, as with Terrier and 71 .   With Bachmann on point of release the first in the market is probably going to get the Lions share .  Unless the Hornby one has a 5 pole motor which to me could be the only possible advantage over what looks like a very nice Bachmann model. 

 

The Manor being some way away  is still a possibility .

 

Ooops don't mention Lion

Edited December 15, 2020 by Legend

[GreenGiraffe22]

Just a side note, because I see the assumption rearing its ugly head again, we don't all model what we grew up with / what we remember / what we see now*. I'm modelling an era 50 years before I was born =)

 

*Edit: The argument has been done to death on this forum.

Edited December 15, 2020 by GreenGiraffe22

[adb968008]

12 minutes ago, Legend said:

 

I think if the 94XX was on the cards , it was when Bachmann announced theirs 4 years ago (?) . They would have accelerated it and it would have been announced last year  to get in first, as with Terrier and 71 .   With Bachmann on point of release the first in the market is probably going to get the Lions share .  Unless the Hornby one has a 5 pole motor which to me could be the only possible advantage over what looks like a very nice Bachmann model. 

 

Ooops don't mention Lion

I only mention it,  as a few years back it seemed they measured 9400 at Swindon and published pictures of them doing it. At that point Bachmann hadn't announced theirs. But agree doing either a Manor or a 94xx now would seem pointlessly aggresive.

 

As side of 9400, STEAM  was home to the Dean goods, A King, Star, 28xx and a Manor, the Star, King and 28xx had already been released prior.

 

It does seem an odd gap not to have a GWR tank, especially given the GWR heritage of the management, hopefully they may prevail with something very welsh and unusual... they measured a 78xxx at Keighley, but doesnt a welsh 0-6-2T live there also ?

 

There was a very big hint of GWR 813 too 2 years ago.

Edited December 15, 2020 by adb968008

[Legend]

Just now, adb968008 said:

I only mention it,  as a few years back it seemed they measured 9400 at Swindon and published pictures of them doing it. At that point Bachmann hadn't announced theirs.

 

As side of 9400, STEAM  was home to the Dean goods, A King, 28xx and a Manor, the King and 28xx had already been released.

 

Yeah I remember . Wasn't there a picture in Engine Shed of someone clambering over the smoke box and a contributor pointing out it looked like a 94XX?  I also remember thinking at the time the Bachmann announcement was just to bag the model and warn others off .  The irony of that is if Hornby had continued Johnster would have probably got his 94XX a lot earlier , and possibly cheaper !

[Dick Turpin]

5 minutes ago, GreenGiraffe22 said:

Just a side note, because I see the assumption rearing its ugly head again, we don't all model what we grew up with / what we remember / what we see now*. I'm modelling an era 50 years before I was born =)

 

*Edit: The argument has been done to death on this forum.

 

Indeed, and with that in mind, pastures new with significant opportunity must surely lie in the pre-grouping direction, and if they decide to go that way, with Hornby's predilection for large and glamorous prototypes, I would expect them to go straight for Claughtons, Reid Atlantics, The Great Bear and the like, not to mention all those lovely big and ornately decorated coaches.

[Rockalaucher101]

2 minutes ago, Dick Turpin said:

 

Indeed, and with that in mind, pastures new with significant opportunity must surely lie in the pre-grouping direction, and if they decide to go that way, with Hornby's predilection for large and glamorous prototypes, I would expect them to go straight for Claughtons, Reid Atlantics, The Great Bear and the like, not to mention all those lovely big and ornately decorated coaches.

Saint Class with toplight coaches... Calling it right now

[The Black Hat]

1 hour ago, The Stationmaster said:

Hornby seem to think - and presumably they know from their sales figures - that certain types of steam outline models sell well (and some don't sell so well).  Obviously judging by their recent history they still have a fixation with 'big' engines and while more of today's youngsters see and travel behind steam far more so than travelling on contemporary traction Hornby seem to have a keenness in going for historical big engines as well.  For example how many people are there around today who saw the W1 in its original form yet that version seems to be selling very well according to some RMweb members.

 

If Hornby can make money selling history that's nearly 100 years old the obvious question might be why can't they make money selling history that is around 60 years old ?    Only they can answer that.  As for the contemporary scene it does I expect come back to the same sort of market forces - as identified by John ('Dunsignalling') - the modern railway is very bland and operates in a very simplistic fashion compared with even 30 years ago.  Colourful (?) liveries are one thing but for youngsters there is probably far more fun in playing with wagons you can put things in, and 4 wheelers are cheaper to make and buy than big bogie wagons.

 

We can but assume that Hornby have a pretty good idea of what sells although we equally know that they don't always get it right from their unsold stock numbers.  but those numbers are in monetary terms.  Within that, apart from the likely involvement of J15s, we don't know what lurks in the warehouse or how much of it is down to wrong initial choices or over-ordering Year 2 models.

 

So maybe 2012 could see a new 'big' steam outline model - that would certainly fit with Hornby's recent marketing.

 

Dont forget its also about completing the collections - Duke of Gloucester showed us that the prototype of 1 can be made to be viable by churning it would with minor differences such as crest, silver hand rails or TTS sound. 

As a result W1 is wanted because A1, A2, A3, A4, P2 and V2 are already done or have been. Hence the A2/2 is also making the list despite people decrying Thompson and jumping on what they see is the popular side of the bandwagon in that debate - yet they will be amongst the first to buy the model. 

Edited December 15, 2020 by The Black Hat

[adb968008]

10 minutes ago, Dick Turpin said:

 

Indeed, and with that in mind, pastures new with significant opportunity must surely lie in the pre-grouping direction, and if they decide to go that way, with Hornby's predilection for large and glamorous prototypes, I would expect them to go straight for Claughtons, Reid Atlantics, The Great Bear and the like, not to mention all those lovely big and ornately decorated coaches.

If I win the lottery, i’m tooling a ready to run L&Y Dreadnought 4-6-0 with corresponding Baltic tanks... just staking my claim now.

 

The L&Y also drew up plans for a 4-6-2, which didnt look that far different to a princess. Stanier already stole the L&Y crab, turned it into his mogul, and hence the Black five and Jubilees. 

Edited December 15, 2020 by adb968008

[Rockalaucher101]

Just now, adb968008 said:

If I win the lottery, i’m tooling a ready to run L&Y Dreadnought 4-6-0 with corresponding Baltic tanks.

Give it to KR Models, they love weird stuff

[DutyDruid]

3 minutes ago, adb968008 said:

If I win the lottery, i’m tooling a ready to run L&Y Dreadnought 4-6-0 with corresponding Baltic tanks... just staking my claim now.

 

If I win the lottery I'm tooling something that looks remarkably like Southern Pride Bulleid Coach kits (and the Mk 1 EMUs) but with Keen Close Coupling system built in! 

 

There, that's my claim staked...

[Legend]

If I won the lottery we would have a range of Scottish models 

 

NBR Glen

CR Cardean, Dunalastair

Highland Clan

GNoS  Gordon Highlander

Class 303 Blue Train

Class 126 Swindon Unit