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2021 hopes


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1 hour ago, The Stationmaster said:

Oddly in past recessions model railways have not been the first thing people cut back on.  In fact as a rule of thumb spending on model railways tends to increase as expenditure on other things such as meals out and holidays is cut back.

 

That's exactly what happened when the credit crunch first hit back in the late naughties.  In the shop I part time in there was a very definite "bounce" in trade once the recession was declared although as the depth of the mess the US banks had caused started to sink in it then dropped away again. 

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2 hours ago, fiftyfour fiftyfour said:

Am I missing something or does a Class 87 really not make very much noise? Can't you just hum as it goes 'round- you'd not be far off!

I know you were joking, and to an extent if any loco is going to run on silent DCC an electric might be the best option, but putting on my serious face for a moment, the 87 had quite a distinctive sound especially at higher speed.  At low speed it was quite similar to an 86, but very different to an 81-85 or 90, but at high speed used to howl to the extent you could tell an 87 was approaching before you saw it.

The Trent Valley line used to pass by the bottom of my street in a cutting when I was growing up, so I was very familiar with the sounds of passing trains!

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4 hours ago, 1andrew1 said:

That's all true but we shouldn't forget the high unemployment rate and those with job insecurities. Luxuries like new model locomotives are the first things you cut back when money is tight or your job is looking uncertain. Hornby will be aware of this.

 

The most recent data I can find is that the UK unemployment rate is 4.9%, and the article states that the experts expect the rate to increase to 7.5% by mid-2021 and the Bank of England pretty much agreeing, with the BOE stating a small chance of 10%.

 

Which of course means 90% remain employed - and while some of that 90% will see a hit to their finances  (supporting family who are out of work, families going from 2 incomes to 1) it still leaves a healthy amount of the population with income every month.

 

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-52660591

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2 hours ago, mdvle said:

 

The most recent data I can find is that the UK unemployment rate is 4.9%, and the article states that the experts expect the rate to increase to 7.5% by mid-2021 and the Bank of England pretty much agreeing, with the BOE stating a small chance of 10%.

 

Which of course means 90% remain employed - and while some of that 90% will see a hit to their finances  (supporting family who are out of work, families going from 2 incomes to 1) it still leaves a healthy amount of the population with income every month.

 

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-52660591

Agreed on the figures.  A potential scenario is:

1)  A smaller market in 2021 than in 2020.

2)  A rally in the economy in the second half of 2021 but this but will probably have a social leisure focus on holidays, eating-out, etc and less on modelling. 

3)  2022 would be a return to the new normality and once people have got their holidays, theatre visits in etc they will return to modelling . We'll enjoy some great layouts at exhibitions that people have been working on throughtout 2020 and 2021. 

4) Potential for growth in the market with more people working from home although both model railways and home offices could fight for the same house space. Perhaps an opportunity for Hornby to provide a layout that fits around a home office!

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18 minutes ago, zigzag said:

How about 4 & 6 wheel milk tankers, long lifespan, ran behind express locos

4-wheel milk tankers had very short lives, in the mid-1930s, it being discovered that their riding characteristics began to turn the payload to butter en-route.

 

The tanks themselves were generally transferred to new 6-wheel underframes within a couple of years.

 

4-wbeelers were revived at the very end of rail-borne milk traffic, being mounted on long-wheelbase ex-petrol tank underfames but these saw very little use before the trade was lost to rail. 

 

John

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20 minutes ago, zigzag said:

How about 4 & 6 wheel milk tankers, long lifespan, ran behind express locos

Hornby already have a reasonably good 6 wheel milk tank design in their tooling and have released it in a number of liveries over recent years.

 

As with many other things previously in the range there is no reason they could not issue a further batch if they wanted.

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47 minutes ago, 1andrew1 said:

Agreed on the figures

 

Another thing to bear in mind is the 2020 range was not done in anticipation of the grown that happened during last year. If there is shrinkage it might still be just back to the levels they were expecting in 2020. The people who started in 2020 some will stay (some won't, just something to do in lockdown etc.) and so it might not be terrible for launching a new range.

 

You can only sell stuff if you make it. Obviously that doesn't mean make loads of stuff hoping to sell it but I can't see the manufacturers being cagey on making stuff, especially as a lot of the financial burden is taken by the dealers once it's in the UK, maybe cagey on large captial investments such as tooling.

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42 minutes ago, 1andrew1 said:

 

4) Potential for growth in the market with more people working from home although both model railways and home offices could fight for the same house space. Perhaps an opportunity for Hornby to provide a layout that fits around a home office!

 

 

Rather than an opportunity for Hornby to provide a layout that fits around a home office surely that's a cue for people who write for magazines to start producing articles describing how it it could be done?  After all, all Hornby can do is to provide the wherewithal to enable layouts to be built, inspiration for the design is in the hands of the designer/builder.

 

I did do a presentation for an exhibition a few years back on this very subject where I showed how a layout could be built round a room (what was my home office when I had to take medical retirement from the Navy and had aspirations of doing consultancy) using a 12" wide shelf that went around the room with a lift out section across the door and window.  The handout is here: http://fareham-mrc.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/Handout-for-Layout-Design-Presentation-Demonstration.pdf

 

Clearly - to me at least - that's not something Hornby could sell.

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7 minutes ago, DutyDruid said:

 

Rather than an opportunity for Hornby to provide a layout that fits around a home office surely that's a cue for people who write for magazines to start producing articles describing how it it could be done?  After all, all Hornby can do is to provide the wherewithal to enable layouts to be built, inspiration for the design is in the hands of the designer/builder.

 

I did do a presentation for an exhibition a few years back on this very subject where I showed how a layout could be built round a room (what was my home office when I had to take medical retirement from the Navy and had aspirations of doing consultancy) using a 12" wide shelf that went around the room with a lift out section across the door and window.  The handout is here: http://fareham-mrc.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/Handout-for-Layout-Design-Presentation-Demonstration.pdf

 

Clearly - to me at least - that's not something Hornby could sell.

You were ahead of the curve :)
 

You're right, there's probably more of an opportunity for magazines and  YouTubers here. 

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42 minutes ago, 1andrew1 said:

You were ahead of the curve :)
 

You're right, there's probably more of an opportunity for magazines and  YouTubers here. 

 

If it wasn't such a tip (and work in progress) at the moment I'd take a pic of my office/train room/music listening room. A lot goes on in not a lot of space.

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1 minute ago, TomScrut said:

 

If it wasn't such a tip (and work in progress) at the moment I'd take a pic of my office/train room/music listening room. A lot goes on in not a lot of space.

Unfortunately. you and me both...

 

I've had to dismantle my "study" ready to move house, the room is decorated and all the "stuff" transferred to what will be the joint hobby room in my late parent's house where it and my wife's craft bits are piled up in boxes.  

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2 hours ago, 1andrew1 said:

Agreed on the figures.  A potential scenario is:

1)  A smaller market in 2021 than in 2020.

 

While I agree with a lot of others that Hornby's obsession with maintaining the one "big bang" yearly announcement isn't normally the best approach, it may due to circumstances this year work to their advantage - and to the hobbies.

 

All the people new/returning thanks to Covid and now stuck in lockdown again, with the holidays past and a dreary January of being stuck inside their home, a big announcement of stuff they can pre-order will provide a boost to both the customer and Hornby.

 

And the benefit is, even though the stuff won't arrive right away, when it does arrive over the next 18 months it will remind them of the fun they had with the hobby and help keep them in it.

 

 

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13 minutes ago, mdvle said:

And the benefit is, even though the stuff won't arrive right away, when it does arrive over the next 18 months it will remind them of the fun they had with the hobby and help keep them in it.

 

And also it could lead to such as Bachmann missing out due to their new approach with short lead times with people already having spent up with Hornby on stuff that's not here yet.

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2 hours ago, phil-b259 said:

Hornby already have a reasonably good 6 wheel milk tank design in their tooling and have released it in a number of liveries over recent years.

 

As with many other things previously in the range there is no reason they could not issue a further batch if they wanted.

Isnt the current Milk tanker kind of a mish - mash.

 

Theres a plan to make the moderately well known Morden Dairies 48DS, so a matching  accurate Express Dairies Milk tank would seem a good idea... They could even do it as a set with a Q1 0-6-0 as it seemed to be a regular turn from Clapham to Morden and other localities..

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SR_Q1_class#/media/File:Clapham_Junction_(Windsor_Lines)_Down_milk_empties_geograph-2646794-by-Ben-Brooksbank.jpg

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3 hours ago, 1andrew1 said:

Agreed on the figures.  A potential scenario is:

1)  A smaller market in 2021 than in 2020.

2)  A rally in the economy in the second half of 2021 but this but will probably have a social leisure focus on holidays, eating-out, etc and less on modelling. 

3)  2022 would be a return to the new normality and once people have got their holidays, theatre visits in etc they will return to modelling . We'll enjoy some great layouts at exhibitions that people have been working on throughtout 2020 and 2021. 

4) Potential for growth in the market with more people working from home although both model railways and home offices could fight for the same house space. Perhaps an opportunity for Hornby to provide a layout that fits around a home office!

 

To an extent but most of we pensioners are actually better off.  My pensions are secure income.  My car has done as many miles since March as it does in an average month.  I've been to no shows- a stay away show costs me about £200 a time over and above any expenses I claim.  I've cancelled a cruise and a UK holiday. I go into town once a week to shop for groceries and very little else.  Shoes and smart clothes haven't needed replacing.  No visits to concerts or the theatre.  It is only recently I've been ordering a Sunday carvery delivered from our local pub once a fortnight instead of eating out maybe once a week.    

 

People in my position have had a lot more disposable income to spend on model trains, and this will certainly continue through most of 2021 as, for instance, I can see very few blowing a couple of grand on a cruise before 2022 etc.

 

Les

 

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13 hours ago, zigzag said:

How about 4 & 6 wheel milk tankers, long lifespan, ran behind express locos

4-wheel milk tanks had a relatively short life, before either being converted to 6-wheel or the tanks re-mounted on new underframes and the old underframes converted to other uses. They survived between c1928 and c1938 in relatively small numbers.

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11 hours ago, Les1952 said:

 

To an extent but most of we pensioners are actually better off.  My pensions are secure income.  My car has done as many miles since March as it does in an average month.  I've been to no shows- a stay away show costs me about £200 a time over and above any expenses I claim.  I've cancelled a cruise and a UK holiday. I go into town once a week to shop for groceries and very little else.  Shoes and smart clothes haven't needed replacing.  No visits to concerts or the theatre.  It is only recently I've been ordering a Sunday carvery delivered from our local pub once a fortnight instead of eating out maybe once a week.    

 

People in my position have had a lot more disposable income to spend on model trains, and this will certainly continue through most of 2021 as, for instance, I can see very few blowing a couple of grand on a cruise before 2022 etc.

 

Les

 

Agreed with you on pensioners being better off. It's those who are between jobs (c5%), those who have taken lower-paid jobs through necessity and those with job insecurities who will be holding back on spending. Some of these will have more time on their hands for modelling though.

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13 hours ago, TomScrut said:

 

Another thing to bear in mind is the 2020 range was not done in anticipation of the grown that happened during last year. If there is shrinkage it might still be just back to the levels they were expecting in 2020. The people who started in 2020 some will stay (some won't, just something to do in lockdown etc.) and so it might not be terrible for launching a new range.

 

You can only sell stuff if you make it. Obviously that doesn't mean make loads of stuff hoping to sell it but I can't see the manufacturers being cagey on making stuff, especially as a lot of the financial burden is taken by the dealers once it's in the UK, maybe cagey on large captial investments such as tooling.


I think Hornby have several projects on the go at any onetime and only make the decision about what appears in range quite late on . Who knows maybe even November . The mention of TPE 802 last year in catalogue despite fact that it wasn’t in range is proof of change made fairly late . So they have a chance to react to market conditions . Let’s face it , when model appears in catalogue often bares little relation to when it actually appears .

 

On Economics , I think inevitably we are in a mess . Hornby may to some extent protected to the extent that the market is older people such as those on company pensions whose income may not change much . That’s a bit of a generalisation though . They do need to try and keep hold of people who have dabbled in modelling for the first time last year, so I would think the Railroad range is important .  The key thing for Hornby though is competition for our hard earned income . Lots of competition out there from other manufacturers ,commissioners . I already have preorders for  £670  which will arrive 2021 (or should do !) and none of its Hornby . 

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On 31/12/2020 at 23:32, scottrains29 said:

Affordable modern freight wagons suitable for the numerous class 66 locos Hornby released this year.

This is certainly needed, as well as the passenger trains to run alongside them. Off the top of my head, HS1 modellers are well catered for (Eurostar and 395) but across the rest of the country we have the GWR HST train set and a single livery of class 153 (East Midlands?). What I think they should do is find a way to churn out sprinters in as many liveries as possible (as they have done with the 66). The Bachmann 158s cost around £220, and I would suggest that Hornby could take up to £100 off of that (the aforementioned 153 sells for around £95).

 

The other model which I think they should make (though don't imagine they will) is a low-spec version of the 800 (or similar) to supplement and eventually replace the HST. The main lines, which by definition serve the most people, either all use these or will do soon and it will become the icon of early-mid 21st century rail travel, in the same way that the HST defined rail travel in the late 20th century. I know that the length of the carriages will cause problems on the smallest curves, but the 3rd radius appears to be at least as common as 2nd for train sets nowadays.

 

If a five car IET could be bought (possibly as a three car set with two extra coaches) for just under £200 (around the price of Kato's brand-new N gauge version - and as far as I can tell N gauge models and low-spec 00 models generaly cost roughly the same) and there was a cheaper-than-Bachmann DMU option (sprinters seem more sensible commercially but I wouldn't mind a 166) I would be far more tempted to start a present-day layout.

 

EDIT: For clarity, I think it's possible they may produce more sprinter variations, though the chances are small. I have no real hope of a budget IET as it would only compete with Hornby's premium offering.

Edited by DK123GWR
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17 hours ago, mdvle said:

 

The most recent data I can find is that the UK unemployment rate is 4.9%, and the article states that the experts expect the rate to increase to 7.5% by mid-2021 and the Bank of England pretty much agreeing, with the BOE stating a small chance of 10%.

 

Which of course means 90% remain employed - and while some of that 90% will see a hit to their finances  (supporting family who are out of work, families going from 2 incomes to 1) it still leaves a healthy amount of the population with income every month.

 

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-52660591

But the inclination for that healthy amount of the population to spend (or not) will be heavily influenced by how secure they judge their jobs/income to be going forward.

 

I'd suggest that might have a rather bigger effect on the overall economy than  the loss of activity from those more directly disadvantaged.

 

John

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13 hours ago, mdvle said:

 

While I agree with a lot of others that Hornby's obsession with maintaining the one "big bang" yearly announcement isn't normally the best approach, it may due to circumstances this year work to their advantage - and to the hobbies.

 

All the people new/returning thanks to Covid and now stuck in lockdown again, with the holidays past and a dreary January of being stuck inside their home, a big announcement of stuff they can pre-order will provide a boost to both the customer and Hornby.

 

And the benefit is, even though the stuff won't arrive right away, when it does arrive over the next 18 months it will remind them of the fun they had with the hobby and help keep them in it.

 

 

But then does somebody stuck at home want to order something which is stated as being due in, say, September, rather than having something in their hand to get on with while stuck at home in January or February?   Bachmann are, in some respects, with their new system of several announcements a year moving towards a situation where all other things being equal something of what they announce will be along in a week or three.

 

Hornby will, i suspect, announce something which they too will be able to put into a customer's hands within a few weeks but if 2020 has been any guide the delay to some bigger ticket items will be somewhat longer than the enforced gap in development and manufacturing in China.  And similarly anybody expecting stuff in at the moment to give an early release to the market after announcement is having to contend with severe logistic problems causing delays.

 

Overall I suspect, as this year, people stuck at home and looking for a hobby interest are more likely to want it now rather than in the future, especially when the promise of a vaccine is influencing their view of that future.  But in the counter direction the vaccine news wil perhaps encourage folk to place longer term orders?

 

And there is the point Legend makes about his pre-orders.  it is very easy to forget that many of us don't buy by brand but buy by what fits our modelling scenario or possibly some sort of collecting habit.  Hornby came up witha. couple of locos which I wanted in 2020 but there might not be any of theirs I want in 2021 and my money might go to somebody else if they come up with the requisite.   Very easy to forget that Hornby function in a number of different markets and that in one of them they are facing intense competition for our money and whether or not they get it depends entirely on what they and their competitors make.   For example at present it looks to me as if Bachmann, in one form or another, will get more of my 2021 model railway spending than Hornby; will that change next week - dunno.

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