2021 hopes

[sc2016]

26 minutes ago, TomScrut said:

 

Which I think the 800 is in that respect a masterstroke assuming they can and want to adapt the tooling easily for the rest of them (now there are 800, 801, 802, 803, 805, 807 and 810, was 804).

I would have thought that it would require new tooling to create the 810s as they are shorter and also got a different front end compared to the other IET Classes. 

[Dunsignalling]

5 minutes ago, sc2016 said:

I think that iirc Hornby was contacted by Drax themselves to do the hoppers in oo gauge so it is probable that Drax/ Hornby have got an exclusivity agreement for the OO Gauge Model so no else would be able to do it. A bit like Dapol with the Class 68 and Accurascale with the Mk5 Coaches.

Very probably, but I wonder if any embargo in the Drax contract on Hornby making more perhaps had an expiry date or only applied while the livery on the first batch was current?

 

The numbers coming out of the woodwork suggest some owners think they'll never be worth more than they are this week....

 

John

[TomScrut]

8 minutes ago, sc2016 said:

I would have thought that it would require new tooling to create the 810s as they are shorter and also got a different front end compared to the other IET Classes. 

 

Which oddly enough I almost put in as I was going to go over the differences.

 

Yes that's true, as far as I am aware the rest will be 26m with similar front ends but I aren't sure if the 805 and 807 are set in that respect yet?

 

The bodies may need redoing and some other bits but I'd say most of the smaller bits would be transferrable, so it wouldn't be back to square one I don't think.

 

14 minutes ago, sc2016 said:

I think that iirc Hornby was contacted by Drax themselves to do the hoppers in oo gauge so it is probable that Drax/ Hornby have got an exclusivity agreement for the OO Gauge Model so no else would be able to do it. A bit like Dapol with the Class 68 and Accurascale with the Mk5 Coaches.

 

Yes, Drax commissioned them. The point being that if it was a one off never to happen again then I'd expect that an agreement would probably have been able to have been come to (what's the point in having an exclusivity agreement if you're never going to actually make the item you have exclusivity on again). If anything the Revolution thing may have set Hornby or Drax thinking about doing more, if somebody can justify tooling it in N and selling them at £70 for 2 then maybe they'd sell well in OO with bigger run at a more sensible price.

[TomScrut]

6 minutes ago, Dunsignalling said:

The numbers coming out of the woodwork suggest some owners think they'll never be worth more than they are this week....

 

And interestingly enough was a bit like the amount of NMT power cars sold last Christmas for the silly money the.older releases brought. Obviously easier to predict given there were 3 coaches in the 2019 catalogue but still.....

[sc2016]

Just now, Dunsignalling said:

Very probably, but I wonder if any embargo in the Drax contract on Hornby making more perhaps had an expiry date or only applied while the livery on the first batch was current?

 

The numbers coming out of the woodwork suggest some owners think they'll never be worth more than they are this week....

 

John

I reckon that there wouldn't be an embargo on Hornby producing more but the tooling was owned by Drax themselves so Hornby wouldn't have been able to produce more unless Drax give them permission to use the tools. Perhaps people are hoping that the tooling transfers or have transferred to Hornby as it has been a few years since they were produced.

[60800]

8 hours ago, adb968008 said:

Railroad argument against the class 58.

 

1. No one under 25 years old can really say they remember them in this country.

2. Most over 25 will want / already have a Heljan one, and are looking for a cheap chip for it.

3. its not Modern, its not relevant to kids

 

Since I fall under point 1 (just) and model 2000 and onwards I can agree that I see the 58 as being old enough not to bother with wanting one myself. If I did want one I wouldn't want railroad and I wouldn't fork out the silly EFE prices either.

 

Regarding remembering them - I only ever saw one on the network, that being an EWS example at Edinburgh Waverly in 2003. I'm still yet to see 58023, but I'm sure I saw 58016 at Barrow Hill. 

 

So yeah, for the younger audience a 58 is a no really. I'm not into this lark of buying models of every mainline registered 37, 47, 50 etc and then altering them when they change hands for the umpteenth time in a decade, but I would certainly buy one of the current colas / GBRF / LSL / ROG / DRS classics before I would consider a 58. 

 

On the note of that though, a new Hornby 37 or 47 (at sub £155) would not go amiss. Why? Accurascale's 37 and Heljan's expensive 47 may be looking good but there is no chance of one company being able to produce all the current liveries in one go, certainly not with period examples at the same time. Bachmann seems to have little interest in modern liveries with their 47 and their 37 just isn't good enough. I've had two and sold them on because I just can't get past the awful Windowscreens.

 

Cheers,

  60800

[adb968008]

12 minutes ago, Dunsignalling said:Very probably, but I wonder if any embargo in the Drax contract on Hornby making more perhaps had an expiry date or only applied while the livery on the first batch was current?

 

The numbers coming out of the woodwork suggest some owners think they'll never be worth more than they are this week....

 

John

40 have sold recently, out of 1000 made.

 

compared to 12 R3809 Rockets, and 4 R3810 Rockets.

There is unusually a lot of models, and a lot of cash changing hands.

 

Is it possible Drax are asking Hornby to make a new batch ?

 

Edited January 3, 2021 by adb968008

[phil-b259]

1 minute ago, sc2016 said:

I reckon that there wouldn't be an embargo on Hornby producing more but the tooling was owned by Drax themselves so Hornby wouldn't have been able to produce more unless Drax give them permission to use the tools. Perhaps people are hoping that the tooling transfers or have transferred to Hornby as it has been a few years since they were produced.

Whatever the specifics the bottom line for moddlers is they need to be making their views known to Drax!

 

Unless they say yes it doesn’t matter how much Hornby or the modelling community want more wagons made.

[TomScrut]

2 minutes ago, sc2016 said:

I reckon that there wouldn't be an embargo on Hornby producing more but the tooling was owned by Drax themselves so Hornby wouldn't have been able to produce more unless Drax give them permission to use the tools. Perhaps people are hoping that the tooling transfers or have transferred to Hornby as it has been a few years since they were produced.

 

Or that somebody in Drax (who maybe had no idea about model railways) is thinking "somebody has approached us about making these because there's a business case, and we CAN make these, why aren't we?"

 

2 minutes ago, adb968008 said:

40 have sold recently, out of 1000 made.

 

2000 made isn't it? Wasn't there 1000 of each?

[sc2016]

7 minutes ago, TomScrut said:

Yes, Drax commissioned them. The point being that if it was a one off never to happen again then I'd expect that an agreement would probably have been able to have been come to (what's the point in having an exclusivity agreement if you're never going to actually make the item you have exclusivity on again). If anything the Revolution thing may have set Hornby or Drax thinking about doing more, if somebody can justify tooling it in N and selling them at £70 for 2 then maybe they'd sell well in OO with bigger run at a more sensible price.

It may off got them thinking about producing more oo gauge models due to the Revolution N Gauge version.

 

The only trouble for more models is that Drax owns the tools compared to the N Gauge version which will be owned by Revolution.

[sc2016]

3 minutes ago, TomScrut said:

 

Or that somebody in Drax (who maybe had no idea about model railways) is thinking "somebody has approached us about making these because there's a business case, and we CAN make these, why aren't we?"

 

 

2000 made isn't it? Wasn't there 1000 of each?

Yeah 1000 of Each R6723 Swoosh & R6724 Powering Tomorrow.

[Dunsignalling]

3 minutes ago, 60800 said:

 

Since I fall under point 1 (just) and model 2000 and onwards I can agree that I see the 58 as being old enough not to bother with wanting one myself. If I did want one I wouldn't want railroad and I wouldn't fork out the silly EFE prices either.

 

Cheers,

  60800

If not wanting Railroad and refusing to pay EFE/full-fat Hornby prices is a widely held attitude, it's perhaps no surprise that Hornby still prioritise steam era models.

 

John

[phil-b259]

1 hour ago, mdvle said:

 

Simple economics.  The hobby has always been dominated by the approx. 45 to 65 age group, those who have raised kids and they are now off, so they now have the time and funds (and space) to get serious about the hobby.

 

And while steam/early diesel will never entirely go away, most of us (based on spending) tend to model what we saw in our teen years.

 

Which means the current "big thing" in sales is BR sectors era - mid 80s to mid 90s, with still a bunch of early 80s thrown in.

 

(which isn't saying no-one models the current stuff, but rather as a percentage of the market and thus potential available £'s it is still smallish - and similarly it doesn't mean younger people aren't in the hobby - but rather they don't have access in general to the same amounts of disposable income)

 

Go forward a decade, and we will be into the early privatisation era.

 

If so why does steam still generally dominate when it comes to RTR offerings.

 

Hornby, uniquely amongst RTR manufacturers have brand recognition that goes well beyond the model railway community and as such do pull in people for whom the idea of their own ‘train set’ is the driving factor rather than a ‘must model a specific era’ ethos.

 

I am a child of the 1980s and have no desire to model BR blue, sectorisation or the current privatisation scene. Yet apparently I should be falling over myself to do so.

 

Thus while there is a large contingent who do seek to model what they saw when they were younger (this is why we have seen firstly the BR transition, then the BR blue eras become much more common as subjects to model). It does not follow that such a grouping dominates the market for RTR.

The popularity of the recently released 1P from Bachmann or the excitement over Hornby P2 models being two examples which demonstrate that.

[GreenGiraffe22]

I agree with the thoughts that kids / teens may get most of their interaction with railways at preserved railways, certainly I did. My interest in steam engines comes from growing up with Thomas and countless trips to the Bluebell Railway, a couple years volunteering there too when I was a young teen. Happy memories =)

[sc2016]

19 minutes ago, TomScrut said:

Yes that's true, as far as I am aware the rest will be 26m with similar front ends but I aren't sure if the 805 and 807 are set in that respect yet?

 

The bodies may need redoing and some other bits but I'd say most of the smaller bits would be transferrable, so it wouldn't be back to square one I don't think.

The 805's and 807's appears to be the standard design there are a few images of the Class 805 body shells already shown. 

 

I think that it would be probably better to completely create a new set of tools for the 810 otherwise it would mean that some tools would wear out quicker as they would be used for multiple different IET classes. Also i don't know if there would be other differences due to them having four engines on a five car train so even the smaller bits may not be as transferable as they seem.   

[phil-b259]

3 minutes ago, sc2016 said:

The 805's and 807's appears to be the standard design there are a few images of the Class 805 body shells already shown. 

 

I think that it would be probably better to completely create a new set of tools for the 810 otherwise it would mean that some tools would wear out quicker as they would be used for multiple different IET classes. Also i don't know if there would be other differences due to them having four engines on a five car train so even the smaller bits may not be as transferable as they seem.   

We have already established that models DO NOT share tooling!

 

Remember Hornby etc do not manufacture the models themselves - they contract it out to lots of different factories in China and having one set of tooling that has to be passed around is going to massively restrictive.

 

As such if Hornby wished to model the new EMT variant then they would create a complete set of tooling for the model!

 

The only thing they gain from having already made the 800s etc is the CAD files being mostly the same so the new tooling can be produced my more quickly than that for the original class 800 models where the CAD files had to be done from scratch.

[sc2016]

2 minutes ago, phil-b259 said:

We have already established that models DO NOT share tooling!

 

Remember Hornby etc do not manufacture the models themselves - they contract it out to lots of different factories in China and having one set of tooling that has to be passed around is going to massively restrictive.

 

As such if Hornby wished to model the new EMT variant then they would create a complete set of tooling for the model!

 

The only thing they gain from having already made the 800s etc is the CAD files being mostly the same so the new tooling can be produced my more quickly than that for the original class 800 models where the CAD files had to be done from scratch.

I reckon that even the CADs would have to be done from scratch due to the shorter length and the revised front end and headlights.

[sc2016]

I predict that Hornby will announce:

• A New Tool Small Locomotive already at livery stage
• New Tool 4-6-2 Steam Locomotive
• 2 Ranges of Newly Tooled Coaches
• New Tool Brake Van
• Class 802

[Mike Storey]

I am not sure if this has already been mentioned in the previous 27 pages, but has anyone noticed Hornby's share price recently? Pretty close to double what it was a year ago, now 63. (Huge amount of trading in November).

 

Sales were up for the half-year by 33%.

 

And they made a profit in the half-year up to September (albeit a little one), the first for at least 5 years, probably much longer?. 

 

So they paid a half-year dividend, again the first for many years.

 

And they increased capital investment (in new products) by 300%.

 

There used to be another thread for this info, but I cannot find it anymore!!!

 

[laurenceb]

10 hours ago, rob D2 said:

To be fair , those will be the usual reactions to any new products . The flip side would be “ yes , I’m having one of everything “ or the slightly more boastful “ I’m having 20 of X to renumber “.

 

May be better just to do the announcements and lock any further comments .

The trouble with that is if Andy locked the announcement thread people would just start more elswhere ahd he would be playing wack-a-mole all over the place. Better to concentrate the comments in on place

[TomScrut]

45 minutes ago, sc2016 said:

The 805's and 807's appears to be the standard design there are a few images of the Class 805 body shells already shown. 

 

I think that it would be probably better to completely create a new set of tools for the 810 otherwise it would mean that some tools would wear out quicker as they would be used for multiple different IET classes. Also i don't know if there would be other differences due to them having four engines on a five car train so even the smaller bits may not be as transferable as they seem.   

 

Yes, I was thinking stuff like bogies, pantographs, coach ends, drivetrain (which should be the same other than propshafts) all the small detail stuff that whilst the body and chassis are the big ticket items for mould costs the cost of these smaller pieces are not to be overlooked in terms of the project.

 

But yes assuming the tooling is likely to wear down (I am sure Simon K said in a recent video they get their tooling made out of the hardest stuff to reduce wear but I don't know enough about injection mould as to how that equates to actual parts)

[60800]

1 hour ago, Dunsignalling said:

If not wanting Railroad and refusing to pay EFE/full-fat Hornby prices is a widely held attitude, it's perhaps no surprise that Hornby still prioritise steam era models.

 

John

 

I'll pay full fat for a new tooling - I have for example pre-ordered a new Heljan 47 and my wallet is waiting for the hit of two Accurascale Deltics. What I will not pay full fat for is old tooling rehashed into a new brand. A quick look on eBay proved that if I want one, I can have a Heljan 58 for less than £100. 

 

Equally I will happily pay full price for a new Hornby Duchess, Princess Royal etc, but I will not pay the prices asked for light Pacifics and A4's - where every single one of those I have cost less than £110, bar Dominion of Canada which topped out at £135-ish 

 

Cheers,

  60800

[TomScrut]

1 hour ago, phil-b259 said:

We have already established that models DO NOT share tooling!

 

Where? Does "established" mean somebody on the forum has said it or the collective reasoning is there, or that it has been said by somebody from Hornby? I aren't trying to be argumentative but what you have said is a statement of fact, which happens a lot on here when it isn't actually fact.

 

1 hour ago, phil-b259 said:

Remember Hornby etc do not manufacture the models themselves - they contract it out to lots of different factories in China and having one set of tooling that has to be passed around is going to massively restrictive.

 

Surely given the similarities they'd get the same people to do the 810 as do the 800? I wasn't thinking for a minute tooling would be getting passed around, (and I am well aware of different factories making different products) but that it would be the same people making it given they are a very similar item and therefore a load of work is removed from it even in terms of internal factory manufacturing and quality process. i.e. more of a tooling mod (adding some tooling to a suite of tooling) rather than a ground up new model.

Edited January 3, 2021 by TomScrut

[Dunsignalling]

3 minutes ago, 60800 said:

 

I'll pay full fat for a new tooling - I have for example pre-ordered a new Heljan 47 and my wallet is waiting for the hit of two Accurascale Deltics. What I will not pay full fat for is old tooling rehashed into a new brand. A quick look on eBay proved that if I want one, I can have a Heljan 58 for less than £100. 

 

Equally I will happily pay full price for a new Hornby Duchess, Princess Royal etc, but I will not pay the prices asked for light Pacifics and A4's - where every single one of those I have cost less than £110, bar Dominion of Canada which topped out at £135-ish 

 

Cheers,

  60800

From what I remember of the old Hornby 58, rehashing the tooling to produce a new even half-fat model would not be an option.

 

Pre-owned Light pacific prices have firmed up quite noticeably of late, with many of the less common ones fetching at least what they cost new. The days of seventy quid Wiltons for renaming seem well and truly over, possibly because so many have been thus treated as to make unmolested ones scarce.

 

John

[Pmorgancym]

Railroad 466?

(Wow £150 on ebay!)

Edited January 3, 2021 by Pmorgancym