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2021 hopes


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59 minutes ago, nathan70000 said:

It's all good fun though! The annual speculation about big yearly announcements is always enjoyable and I'm sure if the hobby was more mainstream bookies would place bets on it!

 

I actually don't think there's many ways Hornby could go wrong. I'm sure many of the suggestions mentioned in the thread so far would be very profitable for Hornby, and I would wager that if they did do the Raven Pacifics, they would sell out on pre-order! How many people ordered an original W1 because their layouts really needed one? Yet it has been a massive success, and I should know, because it was a pain trying to find somewhere that was still taking pre-orders.

 

I actually think the riskiest proposition suggested on this thread would be re-tooling locomotives like the Black 5, the 8F, the rebuilt Merchant Navy and the 9F. These are already excellent models (admittedly the Hornby 9F is quite dated but the Bachmann one is fine) and I don't think many railway modellers are quite as preoccupied with fidelity as the user base of this forum might suggest. A lot of people will make their purchases based on cost-effectiveness, and if you've already got a Black 5, are you going to spend upwards of £170 on a new one? I wouldn't, but I'd certainly put that money aside for a Raven Pacific. And I think you'd be surprised at the amount of people who have roundy-roundys and run pretty much according to "Rule 1", who would make the same choice. I actually do prefer specific area(s) and eras, but I'm willing to make exceptions if the locomotive is special enough.

 

I reckon the cumulative impact of this effect ("I've already got X, so I'll buy X instead), as well as the supply of second hand and mint ex-estate examples on eBay, would lead to retooled Black 5s, 9Fs, RbMNs etc. sitting on shelves until they are inevitably reduced and snapped up for about £120.

 

A specialist company aimed specifically at enthusiasts (like Cavalex) could probably pull it off, but a big mass market one like Hornby would struggle with the large production runs required. I actually think things like Raven Pacifics, streamlined P2s, Great Bears, and Turbomotives would be more successful in terms of profitability.

 

That write up was much longer than I thought it would be when I started it!

The thing with the rebuilt MN is that the bits Hornby have made up to now only allow them to produce models of not-quite two thirds of the class.

 

There are two other tenders (plus detail variations of one they already do) needed for the rest and if they were to take that on, they might as well go the whole hog. The tooling is twenty years old, after all and the A3, A4 and King have all been upgraded twice in that time.

 

The issue is not persuading we Southern Region modellers to replace our existing MNs, but fulfilling pent up demand for our missing favourites. Not entirely unlike the A2/2 and A2/3....

 

John

Edited by Dunsignalling
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Difficult to predict, I think either it'll be a pared back release as they went quite big last year but hopefully they'll continue in the same vein.  

 

What I'm hoping for - one of: 

  • An LNER E4.  
  • An LNER J69.  
  • GER Corridor coaches.     

What I think we will get: 

  • A retooled GWR 14xx (sorely tempting) 
  • A retooled 8F  
  • An Ivatt Duchess in wartime black.  
  • A TFW 67. 
  • A TFW 153. 
  • A Spotrail 153.  
  • New Mark 4's and DVT.  

Aside from that, would be good to see a few 31's in this years range, perhaps 31128 'Charybdis' in Blue for modern image modellers or a 70's/80's condition 31/1. And as a curveball, I feel a 456 might be an interesting proposition - being a 2-car EMU it might do well. Would definitely buy a bi-mode Stadler FLIRT if one was announced, and a first generation EMU would also get my vote - preferably a 309 as you can get 2-car versions, but I'd be sorely tempted by a 303 in Strathclyde Orange! 

 

 

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On 05/12/2020 at 20:09, adb968008 said:

A Stanier Open (completes the set) 

 

They can get that out of a simple change to the Coronation Scot coaches along with a RFO, RK, and BFK.

 

It doesn't complete the set though what's really needed more than anything is a 60' composite which would require a new chassis in addition to everything else.

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10 minutes ago, adb968008 said:

Hasn't stopped Hornby before, indeed it seems to encourage them.

 

No definitely not. But I don't see why somebody would *want* Hornby to do them when in all likelihood somebody else will be.

 

Either from a "the other one will be better" perspective (which is more than likely to be the case) or "why complete over something like that, do something else" perspective.

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2 hours ago, NXEA! said:

a first generation EMU would also get my vote - preferably a 309 as you can get 2-car versions, but I'd be sorely tempted by a 303 in Strathclyde Orange! 

 

 

I would be so Insanely keen on a 303 or 309!!! Especially with all the AC electric locomotives being announced lately, I really think Hornby can't go wrong announcing something like that. Considering Bachmann already have the 85 and 90, and with Heljan's upcoming 86, Accurascale's 92, along with Hornby's own 91, and also PECO's range of OHLE catenary, the AC loco market is growing rapidly (YAY!), yet it seems that there are still no first generation AC EMU's on the market. 

And I know I've said this already, but Hornby, PLEASE, I beg of you please, do a class 81, 82, 83 or 84. 

 

On another note, I know plenty of people have been calling for an S160, but I really don't see that being something Hornby would do - I reckon Bachmann might some day get around to doing it - Makes sense considering they've already done the WD 2-8-0, along with the USA tank loco. 

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7 hours ago, Legend said:

I'm not sure that the industrial market isn't now saturated . We seem to have gone from virtually 0 five years ago to Sentinels, Pecketts , The Hattons locos and now the Rapido ones .  There must come a time when everybody has got what they need . 

Plus the pi Kerr Stuart !

 

 

 

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7 hours ago, Legend said:

There must come a time when everybody has got what they need . 

 

33 minutes ago, newbryford said:

 

No chance - this is RMweb you're talking about after all.....................

I thought I had seen it all...

 

Then I opened a thread one day to a new manufacturer announcement, followed by a chain of posts telling them not to make it...

 

Then I really thought i’d seen it all.

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There's two trends that I really don't get in this thread so far. 

 

First, is the sizeable minority asking for a retooled GWR 14xx. It's not going to happen; the Hattons/DJM might have a ropey mechanism, but the body is sublime. I can see that eventually finding its way back to market via the EFE range with maybe, just maybe, a revised mechanism. Hornby won't gamble it's product development budget on designing a new one from scratch against an existing model that isn't as bad as people make out. 

 

Second, is the amount of pushback on the thought of retooled Merchant Navies, Black 5s and 8Fs. As others have said, the MN is 20 years old and was the first of the Super Detailed range, and we've had the LMS Duchess and Princess retooled in the time since. I think it's an open goal for Hornby to rework and re-release.

 

With Black 5s and 8fs, I see them as the Class 37 and 66 of the steam world, both of which have seen bunfights between manufacturers of late, in an effort to retool to ever finer standards. Both are staple locos that could be seen from Bristol to Inverness from the mid 1930s right up until 1968 - and beyond as mainstays of the preservation scene. If Hornby don't revise them, I would wager a modest sum that someone like Accurascale or Rapido might pick them off before too long, and we all know that Mr Kohler doesn't like tanks on his lawn. 

 

CoY

 

 

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40 minutes ago, adb968008 said:

Plus the pi Kerr Stuart !

 

 

 

 Oh Crikey! 6-wheel Barclays, Avonsides, Hunslets, big Pecketts, fireless locos...  That bloke from DJM had about 200-odd examples to work from on the 18" austerity alone. About 12 were on one local area coalfield. It's to be hoped that EFE keep going with that little project. The list goes on & on....

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A half cab pannier of some sort would sell and be sufficiently different from the others to justify. 

 

Would go well with the genesis coaches coming. 

 

Looking at the past, an E2? Nice companion for the terrier with a long life and a couple of different side tank options for multiple liveries/eras. 

 

Wildcard, 317 emu. Overhead mk3 unit available in popular NSE livery and a named Stansted express version? 

 

On a personal level... I'd like a Hornby adams radial in southern green! I don't know why they are avoiding it. They do that livery so well. 

 

Now that they have all the parts how about a schools with a nelson tender? 

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8 hours ago, Iskra said:

My hopes:

 

Clan Class

Reworked class 142

Class 73/9 Caledonian Sleeper

Some classic HST liveries; GNER, Midland Mainline.

 

 

There's no point in Hornby doing a newly tooled Class 142. Realtrack/Rapido are doing it. 

 

Same goes for the Class 73/9. Accurascale and KMS Railtech are planning on doing one. 

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8 hours ago, Iskra said:

My hopes:

 

Clan Class

Reworked class 142

Class 73/9 Caledonian Sleeper

Some classic HST liveries; GNER, Midland Mainline.

 

 

There's no point in Hornby doing a newly tooled Class 142. Realtrack/Rapido are doing it. 

 

Same goes for the Class 73/9. Accurascale and KMS Railtech are planning on doing one. 

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The 14xx is a bit of an odd situation, a very popular loco that is bound to sell, but there has never been a satisfactory RTR model in 00.  The Airfix was pretty good in it’s day, but  eventually proved to have a weakness in the form of the sprung plunger pickups, and with no cab detail, does not cut the modern hi-fi RTR mustard.  This was AFAIK continued unaltered by Replica, then by Hornby, who, since taking on the body tooling (which to be fair has little to complain about on it, especially considering it’s age) have retooled the chassis. 
 

This model, currently in the Railroad range and still with no cab detail, has running issues.  The alternative is the Hattons/DJM, and I am uncertain of the availability at present given the collapse of DJM.  This is more like a modern RTR effort, with cab detail, but the loco has a poor reputation for it’s running quality.  It cost almost double the current Horby version, but that is also apparently a poor runner. 
 

An 0-4-2, especially a tank loco that cannot transfer it’s weight to a tender, is not easy to balance to sit with all it’s wheels on the track picking up current reliably unless it has a fully compensated chassis, which cannot be done in a volume produced RTR model at a price acceptable to the market, so I have some sympathy for anyone trying to design one. The radial truck will lift the rear drivers clear of the railhead if it is sprung too strongly, and the front ones of it is not sprung strongly enough, affecting pickup and running. 
 

Despite CoY’s assessment, I would not be suprised to see a completely retooled 14xx from Hornby, but it will not be in the Railroad range and is going to be a bot on the pricey side to recoup the high development costs of making sure it is a reliable runner, nor is it going to happen for some time. 

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I wouldn’t discount the 14XX . The Hattons/DJM one has got dodgy mechanicals . Also we all know about Hattons , but there must be a sizeable model railway market ( trainsets , new comers ) that are not aware of models they offer , so a Hornby 14xx might have larger market . If you are doing a 14XX you might as well do an Autocoach . And of course this ties in neatly if they are doing Lion , because you’ve now got Titfield Thunderbolt . 
 

Yes a new open cab Pannier could be a possibility, but wouldn’t a Metro tank be something different ? 
 

A loco that could do with a revamp is a 5MT . I’m not sure the Bachmann one is still available , but it must now be pretty old 

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I wonder if we might see more licensed  (or ‘interesting’) liveried versions of existing models this year? It would be interesting to know how the Beatles Eurostar or Coca-Cola Christmas train set have done? I’m pretty sure that no-one had those on their wishlist last year! But I wouldn’t mind betting they’re based on reasonably sound commercial logic. 
 

Part of the reason I suggest this is that Hornby have made much more of their Harry Potter range in recent years and 2021 is the year that Bachmann’s Thomas range will become available in the UK. The Hornby range has a much wider audience than a lot of the newer entrants to the market, no matter how accurate or competitively priced their models are. 
 

Also H are pretty good at attractive well-applied liveries when they put their minds to it. 
 

2020 was a bumper year in terms of the Hornby range and I think they’ll have been thinking about the best way to capitalise on it especially given the ongoing Coronavirus situation and the challenges with the economy. 

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10 hours ago, County of Yorkshire said:

 

 

With Black 5s and 8fs, I see them as the Class 37 and 66 of the steam world, both of which have seen bunfights between manufacturers of late, in an effort to retool to ever finer standards. Both are staple locos that could be seen from Bristol to Inverness from the mid 1930s right up until 1968 - and beyond as mainstays of the preservation scene. If Hornby don't revise them, I would wager a modest sum that someone like Accurascale or Rapido might pick them off before too long, and we all know that Mr Kohler doesn't like tanks on his lawn. 

 

CoY

 

 

You've missed one. Bachmann have a new n gauge 8f, and what they do in one size tends to follow in the other.

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21 minutes ago, daltonparva said:

You've missed one. Bachmann have a new n gauge 8f, and what they do in one size tends to follow in the other.

I advise staying away from duplication of less than 30 year old toolings myself.

The track record doesnt impress me. Anything with moulded lamp irons and separate wind deflectors tends to be a tooling thats acceptable to many.

 

Think about it.. new 8f.. £220 rrp.. howls of protest, people stick with their £75 second hand one. Slow sales result... not only that, but with so many models to pick, many prioritize, and its easier to exclude something youve already got, for something you havent.

 

If they did a Saint, a County 4-6-0 for instance.. few are going to argue sticking with the 1970’s model is a good thing... its too old / inaccurate.

 

Safer bet is a WD 2-10-0.. only competition is a 40 year old djh kit, probably on a 9f chassis with an a4 tender drive chassis.

 

A BR std 77xxx would be a good one too.

 

personally i think 2021 should consolidate, everyone has stuff delayed from 2020, with a very uncertain economy in 2021. Adding to the pile, when theres risk of oversupply from 2020, and futher delays for whats already announced isn't to me very wise.

 

 

 

 

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