Railway Erudition from Journalist Shock!

[Andy Kirkham]

The admirable Ian Jack has an article in the Guardian in which he draws a historical parallel between Crossrail and the Caledonian's Lanarkshire & Ayrshire line.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/jan/11/crossrail-london-prosper-elizabeth-line-brexit-covid

[caradoc]

An interesting article, thanks for the link. A couple of things I would take slight issue with; While commuting may very well be reduced in future, that is not the sole purpose of Crossrail; And part of the Lanarkshire & Ayrshire Railway still exists and performs a useful function today - I live on one end of it !

 

[DY444]

There is a growing tendency in the media to conflate commuters with passengers.  For example if you watch the Channel 5 series on Paddington station you'll know that every delay affects "commuters" rather than "passengers" irrespective of the location of the problem and the time of day.  It is a pet hate of mine.

 

Whilst it seems very probable that commuting, as in travelling to/from work rather than just travelling, into London will be at lower levels than hitherto my view is that it will still end up higher than many observers expect.  Also there has been a marked change in off-peak loadings over the years.  When I first came to live in the big bad metropolis 40 years ago passenger numbers on the tube in the middle of the day and the middle of the evening were quite low.  In recent years that has all changed and the tube is quite busy all the time.  That is not all "commuters" unless nobody does any work and spends all day travelling about instead.

 

The confidence in certain quarters about future travel levels imo is probably the most absurd thing about this whole crisis.  We have a situation with literally no precedent and yet there are those who would have you believe that passenger number trends in a year, 5 years time and 10 years time are clear and obvious.  I predict those people are going to look very foolish down the line. 

 

Since March 23rd the maximum passenger volume seen on the tube has peaked at 45% of 2019 levels.  That's with most offices and public buildings closed, no theatres, no concerts, no museums, no galleries, no night clubs, no tourists, no conferences, no business meetings, no public admission to sporting events and most restaurants and bars either closed or offering a severely curtailed service.  Commuters or no commuters, London won't stop being a major countrywide and worldwide "destination" city so what's going to happen to that 45% when all that stuff is open again?  Is it really only going to climb to 60% as some would have you believe?  Doesn't feel credible to me.

Edited January 12, 2021 by DY444

[Edwin_m]

I've seen other articles by Ian Jack, though not recently, and he does seem quite knowledgeable about aspects of our industrial history particularly around Glasgow.  

 

Good point about "commuters" - it literally means those who have their fair "commuted" by buying a season ticket, so by that test some of the three-day-a-weekers probably don't qualify either.  I would regard it as describing those that travel to and from a workplace, not those travelling for other purposes such business meetings elsewhere. 

 

My own view is that we'll see a bigger drop in peak demand than off-peak as many office workers work from home at least part of the time, and some may just come in for meetings during the day which might even add to the off-peak demand.  In the long term that might result in a more healthy railway as the peaks will be reduced relative to the off-peaks, but some of the trains and infrastructure that are only needed a couple of times each day might end up redundant.  

[John Harris]

1 hour ago, DY444 said:

There is a growing tendency in the media to conflate commuters with passengers.  For example if you watch the Channel 5 series on Paddington station you'll know that every delay affects "commuters" rather than "passengers" irrespective of the location of the problem and the time of day.  It is a pet hate of mine.

 

 

 

Of course, these people become "service users" in some contexts and "stakeholders" in others!

 

I must declare an interest, my nearest station is on the Elizabeth Line (though I bet it will be forever called 'Crossrail' by many) and back when I was working a direct line from here to Paddington would have been useful to attend meetings at 'head office'. 

 

The new trains have been used on the line for over four years, they are really nice if you can get one of the seats, but there are far fewer seats compared with the existing rolling stock, the new carriages have free wifi, but no loos.  I fear for the state of the carriages after the late night trains full of revellers who have had more than a couple of drinks.

 

The stations on the line have been upgraded, mine now has lifts to the platforms, and extensive re-branding as a 'Tube' line.

 

In the early days, there were proposals about a transfer yard, to get goods off trucks and onto rails and cross London quickly, but that development seems stalled.

 

jch

[Derekl]

As DY444 above, I have also noticed (over much the same time span)  that the traffic on the Tube has gently expanded well beyond the traditional commuting times. It may have something to do with work times having spread - much of business in the 1970s worked 9 to 5, and shops similarly closed fairly early - I vaguely recall one night a week for late shopping, but that meant that shop and other staff were also on fairly fixed hours. That has changed significantly, meaning more people traveling to/from work at different times and more available to travel in off peak. In addition, there are far more tourists in London who will trend to travel off peak.

 

A factor which may be significant in the future is that traffic patterns on rail and bus are heavily dictated by peak time demand. Servicing the peak time demand tends to set traffic patterns for the rest of the day as operators do not want expensive equipment and staff sitting around doing nothing.

 

In passing, though, I am told that traffic levels on sections of the Overground are back to pre-pandemic levels at peak times, although the peaks have moved to slightly earlier.

[Legend]

Good article I think .

 

I have said before that Covid is , hopefully, a once in a lifetime experience and also a reset button . For sure  folks have not got to grips with short term consequences, but have not even considered the long term effects .   There will be a reduction in commuting as folks prefer to work from home . I can see less need for big shiny offices and HQs . Will retail recover ?  Will folks travel into cities and towns for shopping and recreation in same way ?These aspects are being decimated at the moment . Can they recover or will it be permanently different?  We assume Covid goes away , but reality is while the effects may be mitigated by vaccination , its likely to be around and we will need to take measures to be protected from it  for some time .

 

So I do wonder about the need for Crossrail . We will have it because its past point of no return.

 

But what about HS2?  Do we really need it . Rail demand decreased dramatically in March .  With Covid will people elect to travel in the bubble that is their car  rather than risk infection in the open on Public Transport?

 

Will air traffic recover , both within UK and outside . Now we are all proficient in Teams/ Skype etc do we really need to travel for business ?  Will leisure travel recover ? Don't think we need a third runway at Heathrow . I believe all current traffic fitting comfortably on one. 

 

Do we need to consider ventilation/ air conditioning  in the light of ease of transmission of Covid . Will office/ Factory/ House designs need to change?

 

There's a lot of far reaching implications and I'm only skimming the surface . For sure Covid is a game changer . Things will never be the same again , not necesserily bad or good but changed . 

Edited January 12, 2021 by Legend

[DY444]

53 minutes ago, Legend said:

Good article I think .

 

I have said before that Covid is , hopefully, a once in a lifetime experience and also a reset button . For sure  folks have not got to grips with short term consequences, but have not even considered the long term effects .   There will be a reduction in commuting as folks prefer to work from home . I can see less need for big shiny offices and HQs . Will retail recover ?  Will folks travel into cities and towns for shopping and recreation in same way ?These aspects are being decimated at the moment . Can they recover or will it be permanently different?  We assume Covid goes away , but reality is while the effects may be mitigated by vaccination , its likely to be around and we will need to take measures to be protected from it  for some time .

 

So I do wonder about the need for Crossrail . We will have it because its past point of no return.

 

But what about HS2?  Do we really need it . Rail demand decreased dramatically in March .  With Covid will people elect to travel in the bubble that is their car  rather than risk infection in the open on Public Transport?

 

Will air traffic recover , both within UK and outside . Now we are all proficient in Teams/ Skype etc do we really need to travel for business ?  Will leisure travel recover ? Don't think we need a third runway at Heathrow . I believe all current traffic fitting comfortably on one. 

 

Do we need to consider ventilation/ air conditioning  in the light of ease of transmission of Covid . Will office/ Factory/ House designs need to change?

 

There's a lot of far reaching implications and I'm only skimming the surface . For sure Covid is a game changer . Things will never be the same again , not necesserily bad or good but changed . 

 

Putting commuting to one side once Covid is under control then the normal influences of time, cost, convenience will kick back in.  If everybody takes to their cars then congestion very quickly ensues and elongates journey times and alternatives are sought.  Many city and larger town centres are not car friendly and have limited and/or expensive parking charges.  It is also a long established trend that people in the provinces tend to prefer the train for trips to London and I don't see that changing.  Eventually HS2 will probably make that a more attractive proposition certainly in terms of reduced journey times for those in its catchment areas.  In any event if you've got any sense then you don't determine long term strategy in the middle of an extraordinary event. 

 

As to air travel I think that will see a huge surge.  People haven't been able to go anywhere and there will be plenty that want to make up for lost time by going on trips. 

 

As I've said I think it's a big mistake to assume that because people don't travel on public transport when there are restrictions that they won't when there aren't.

Edited January 12, 2021 by DY444

[caradoc]

1 hour ago, Derekl said:

A factor which may be significant in the future is that traffic patterns on rail and bus are heavily dictated by peak time demand. Servicing the peak time demand tends to set traffic patterns for the rest of the day as operators do not want expensive equipment and staff sitting around doing nothing.

 

I would disagree with that; It only takes a trip, off-peak of course, past Clapham Jc or Grove Park to see the amount of stock sitting idle outside the rush hours. And while London is the most obvious example, the same applies elsewhere; My local line in Scotland, for example, has a basic half-hourly service, seven days a week, but during Mon-Fri rush hours additional trains run, and services are strengthened also. In some ways a reduction in commuting might actually, in the long term, benefit the railway, by reducing or eliminating the resources only fully used in the peaks, and people now working from home will have more leisure time, and the chance to enjoy, instead of endure, train travel. 

 

[Jim Martin]

Ian Jack has written numerous pieces over the years that have touched on his childhood love of railways, and he's obviously kept up with the subject. As I recall, he grew up in one of the towns at the end of the Forth rail bridge - Dalmeny, Queensferry, North Queensferry, Inverkeithing: somewhere around there.

 

Jim

Edited January 12, 2021 by Jim Martin

[Jim Martin]

1 minute ago, Jim Martin said:

As I recall, he grew up in one of the towns at the end of the Forth rail bridge - Dalmeny, Queensferry, North Queensferry, Inverkeithing: somewhere around there.

 

Jim

 

Turns out he has a Wikipedia page. Born in Lancashire to Scottish parents, moved back to North Queensferry as a child.

 

Jim

[Edwin_m]

As far as I can see there are two effects of Covid on society in general and the rail network in particular.  

 

Firstly many people can't travel due to restrictions, or don't wish to because whatever they would have wanted to go to is closed, or they are just afraid of catching it.  I think that effect will fade away during 2021 as vaccination becomes widespread.  The rail network nearly collapsed in 2000 after the Hatfield derailment, when there was a perceived (but turned out not actual) risk of similar accidents and the network was crippled by speed restrictions.  But passengers came back quite quickly once the situation was resolved.  

 

The longer term impact is likely to be a permanent shift towards working from home instead of commuting, possibly also a reduction in business travel due to people meeting remotely instead for cost reasons (though I think many companies were already doing that after 2008).  Somewhere between the two is the likely medium-term reduction in leisure travel due to some attractions not having survived the pandemic, but which ought to be replaced eventually.  

[Derekl]

1 hour ago, caradoc said:

 

I would disagree with that; It only takes a trip, off-peak of course, past Clapham Jc or Grove Park to see the amount of stock sitting idle outside the rush hours. And while London is the most obvious example, the same applies elsewhere; My local line in Scotland, for example, has a basic half-hourly service, seven days a week, but during Mon-Fri rush hours additional trains run, and services are strengthened also. In some ways a reduction in commuting might actually, in the long term, benefit the railway, by reducing or eliminating the resources only fully used in the peaks, and people now working from home will have more leisure time, and the chance to enjoy, instead of endure, train travel. 

 

 

Have you looked at peak times to see how many are parked up then? Certainly in Brighton there are usually a few trains in the sidings, although obviously more during the off-peak periods. There are also no longer the equivalent of the string of 4 CIGs that used to sit on Grosvenor bridge all day.

 

The point is that the service requirements are determined by morning peak demand, which determines how many trains and how many train crew are required. Certainly there will be some additional services in the peaks, but the peak requirement determines what can be provided off-peak.

 

The Thameslink service pattern from Brighton to London, though, is 4 an hour peak and off-peak.

[Wickham Green too]

5 hours ago, DY444 said:

......... every delay affects "commuters" rather than "passengers" ...........

Better than "customers" I suppose  -  at least it implies making a journey rather than just purchasing goods.

 

( Must admit the Elizabeth Line CrossRail is irrelevant to my part of sarf Lunnon - maybe CrossRail Three will come in this direction ? ..................................................................................... maybe ? )

[Northmoor]

I agree with much of what is written here but would qualify one statement about the current situation being unprecedented.

 

During WW2, travel was greatly restricted.  Once those restrictions were lifted, everyone wanted to travel.  Rail travel boomed and car ownership grew even faster (assuming you could get one, most UK production was for export).

 

Once we are all down to Tier 1 or less, the roads will be packed; then once everyone gets fed up with that, they will return to rail.

[steve1]

When I lived in Maidenhead and worked in the Waterloo area, Crossrail would have given me an alternative commuting route into Padd for the Bakerloo. My chosen bours normally started at 7.30 but I was on flexitime so return could be variable. 

 

There was was no way on earth I would have ever even considered driving to my office. It would taken hours and there was nowhere to park anyway. This must surely apply to most folk who work in the commercial part of London. If I was still at my old job, however, I suspect it would have gone over  homeworking for some of the time, so less commuting required.

 

steve