Preorder email

[spamcan61]

8 minutes ago, railroadbill said:

  If one shop hasn't got an item, surely best thing is to buy it from another.

Personally I'm more interested / concerned as to whether this is a one off, or we have a Rails type situation evolving here.

[jonnyuk]

as others have said, surely hattons can't lose Hornby. Without Bachmann and Hornby they are stuffed.
saying that it might not be their decision but i can't see Hornby dumping hattons either, without rails they need hattons?

 

[Legend]

People are criticised for speculation , but in the absence of information really that's all you can do .

 

In Jenny Kirks Monday Club apparently Kernow had revealed in an email to someone that it had affected other retailers too . Yes OK its all hearsay.   Now as Hattons is probably the biggest, as Ighten says above ,its more likely that they would be disproportionately affected and that's why people are quoting emails from Hattons .  It seems that there is no underlying issue 

 

There are a few points that Hattons need to address though , and I really think they should clarify their position  because it must damage their business if they don't .

 

1. Does their website allow any numbers of pre orders or is there a max level, could they be accepting orders beyond their allocation. Is it a glitch in system?

2. Has Hattons actually agreed numbers with the manufacturer , Hornby in this case , or are they speculative numbers.

3. Why have people who placed orders immediately on announcement had letters of cancellation ?  Is there a system for dealing with over orders . Surely those that got in first should have advantage .

 

I think until we get answers on above , why would anyone place pre orders with Hattons , when you could place pre orders with Kernow, Derails  etc etc and not face any of these issues.  People need to order with confidence  and it seems you cant really do that on pre orders with Hattons at moment. 

[woodenhead]

14 minutes ago, jonnyuk said:

as others have said, surely hattons can't lose Hornby. Without Bachmann and Hornby they are stuffed.
saying that it might not be their decision but i can't see Hornby dumping hattons either, without rails they need hattons?

 

Hornby are better known than Hattons to the majority of Hornby purchasers and to the modellers who use Hattons, they know how to find other retailers.

 

But I would not like to see Hattons lose the business.

[Ighten]

I think the simple lesson is it doesnt matter what it is -- from a ltd edition mountain bike - to a PS5 gamethingy - and to some extent (though not quite the same) an airline ticket -

 

"A pre order is not a guarantee of delivery."

 

I used the airline ticket example to make a point though - a value no frills tkt will always get pushed if an open full price tkt arrives at the check in gate.  The airline has to oversell in order to take into account the x amount of open tkts that it has sold that theoretically could all turn up at once... Its a fine line that changes on daily basis

 

A kind of opposite (I'm sure lurking in a Thesaurus is the correct word)  is true with this hobby - with no deposits in many cases and no commitment to buy - every retailer has to protect themselves from  underselling as you can preorder in many cases with no commitment (which is a little unusual in direct retail) and no risk as a buyer.

[Ian Hargrave]

21 hours ago, Down_Under said:

I got the email also I forming new that "Earl Marischal" (original bodystyle) was now cancelled. Bit of a bummer, but oh well. Is what it is. 
 

 

 

That particular phrase has been unique to Hattons for a decade.In translation it probably means “We haven’t any in stock and we can’t get any more “ Ignore it.

 

 

 

[No Decorum]

38 minutes ago, Legend said:

 

3. Why have people who placed orders immediately on announcement had letters of cancellation ?  Is there a system for dealing with over orders . Surely those that got in first should have advantage .

 

In all of this fuss, that’s what I find most difficult to understand.

[The Stationmaster]

7 hours ago, Hilux5972 said:

Well I was pleasantly surprised to wake up to an email reply from Mr Hornby himself. Simon basically said what others on here have speculated at. Each shop gets a certain allocation and they may well oversell their allocation before it is confirmed. 

And he didn't mention. that Hornby have a history of rationing supplies to retailers after their orders have been placed.  i'm definitely not saying that is the case here but Hornby have a past history of rationing when they have taken orders but have not got enough product delivered to fulfil those orders - and those were orders taken under their system of having retailers over to their presentation and taking the orders on the spot.

 

 

Maybe Hattons did oversell and maybe they didn't but only they know that.  There is an implication in the quoted post that the shop had an allocation but that it was changed at the confirmation stage - of course that might just be a matter of semantics but it could be read to imply that some sort of rationing was applied at some stage.  

 

[Ian Hargrave]

1 hour ago, No Decorum said:

In all of this fuss, that’s what I find most difficult to understand.

In all of this orderangst it is necessary to suspend disbelief. Oh,hang on that can be said to apply to a number of other “issues “ ......as we illustrious RMWebbers love to call them.....doing the rounds near at hand on this forum atm

 

 

Edited February 17, 2021 by Ian Hargrave
Correcting spelling

[Roddy Angus]

17 minutes ago, The Stationmaster said:

And he didn't mention. that Hornby have a history of rationing supplies to retailers after their orders have been placed.  i'm definitely not saying that is the case here but Hornby have a past history of rationing when they have taken orders but have not got enough product delivered to fulfil those orders - and those were orders taken under their system of having retailers over to their presentation and taking the orders on the spot.

 

 

Of course any "rationing" has to take place after orders have been placed.  Until Hornby have orders from all retailers, they will not know whether they have enough being produced to cover orders or if orders exceed production and that some form of "rationing" is required.

 

Regards

 

Roddy

[9402 Fredrick]

2 hours ago, Legend said:

People are criticised for speculation , but in the absence of information really that's all you can do .

 

In Jenny Kirks Monday Club apparently Kernow had revealed in an email to someone that it had affected other retailers too . Yes OK its all hearsay.   Now as Hattons is probably the biggest, as Ighten says above ,its more likely that they would be disproportionately affected and that's why people are quoting emails from Hattons .  It seems that there is no underlying issue 

 

There are a few points that Hattons need to address though , and I really think they should clarify their position  because it must damage their business if they don't .

 

1. Does their website allow any numbers of pre orders or is there a max level, could they be accepting orders beyond their allocation. Is it a glitch in system?

2. Has Hattons actually agreed numbers with the manufacturer , Hornby in this case , or are they speculative numbers.

3. Why have people who placed orders immediately on announcement had letters of cancellation ?  Is there a system for dealing with over orders . Surely those that got in first should have advantage .

 

I think until we get answers on above , why would anyone place pre orders with Hattons , when you could place pre orders with Kernow, Derails  etc etc and not face any of these issues.  People need to order with confidence  and it seems you cant really do that on pre orders with Hattons at moment. 

Taking the p**s are we? There's people like me who don't have that luxary as I live in the USA and work a part time job, DeRails doesn't ship to the states currently and KMRC require payment upfront, so that's harder for me.

[Legend]

8 minutes ago, 9402 Fredrick said:

Taking the p**s are we? There's people like me who don't have that luxary as I live in the USA and work a part time job, DeRails doesn't ship to the states currently and KMRC require payment upfront, so that's harder for me.

 

Fair enough . I tend only to speak from a UK point of view .  

I'm a great supporter of Hattons , never had any issues in about 40 years of dealing with them . They are also one of the forces of moderation in model railways , keeping prices lower . You can see that with their 66 which magically allowed another manufacturer to reduce their prices . So I wish them well and hope they get it sorted to allow you to order with confidence . 

[LimboBrit]

If I was a Hornby director I would be concerned that having invested in the development of a new model, manufactured quantities are apparently not being aligned with demand. If rationing is really taking place I would not be a happy chappy missing out on earnings upside from the project. If immediate demand is lower than expected it becomes a cash flow issue but at least the model would be available for sale at a later date to those not ready to take the plunge as soon as it is announced.

 

I would be very interested to know more about the timing of model announcement, design freeze, pre-order acceptance, lead times from supply chain, factory capacity etc. There has got to be a better way.

[spamcan61]

2 minutes ago, LimboBrit said:

 

 

I would be very interested to know more about the timing of model announcement, design freeze, pre-order acceptance, lead times from supply chain, factory capacity etc. There has got to be a better way.

There is, you announce early in the development so that pre-orders can be taken before production quantities are finalised; but that's not Hornby's modus operandi and I can't see that changing.

[LimboBrit]

1 minute ago, spamcan61 said:

There is, you announce early in the development so that pre-orders can be taken before production quantities are finalised; but that's not Hornby's modus operandi and I can't see that changing.

The key thing is that pre-orders are only a good indication if there is some sort of commitment i.e. down payment. I read here a comment from someone who places multiple pre-orders from different suppliers and then cancels all but one. That sort of behaviour is not going to help.

[newbryford]

4 hours ago, LimboBrit said:

If I was a Hornby director I would be concerned that having invested in the development of a new model, manufactured quantities are apparently not being aligned with demand. If rationing is really taking place I would not be a happy chappy missing out on earnings upside from the project. If immediate demand is lower than expected it becomes a cash flow issue but at least the model would be available for sale at a later date to those not ready to take the plunge as soon as it is announced.

 

 

Balancing a production number against likely demand is possibly the most difficult thing to do for a manufacturer commissioner of models.

Unless the system is pre-orders = production number plus a few.

Such is the way that some of the smaller manufacturers commissioners are now running - but as already observed - that isn't Hornby's way

 

Don't make commission enough and they're criticised for not anticipating demand.

Too many and they end up on their warehouse and dealer shelves, eventually being discounted.

And as you say - a cash flow issue, which is never a good thing

 

Who'd want to be a manufacturer commissioner these days?

 

Edited February 17, 2021 by newbryford
clarity/pedantry

[Legend]

19 minutes ago, newbryford said:

 

Balancing a production number against likely demand is possibly the most difficult thing to do for a manufacturer.

Unless the system is pre-orders = production number plus a few.

Such is the way that some of the smaller manufacturers are now running - but as already observed - that isn't Hornby's way

 

Don't make enough and they're criticised for not anticipating demand.

Too many and they end up on theirs warehouse and dealer shelves, eventually being discounted.

And as you say - a cash flow issue, which is never a good thing

 

Who'd want to be a manufacturer these days?

 

But they aren't a manufacturer are they . That's part of the problem I think . Long inflexible supply chain . But I still think if you contract for 5000 units you will get 5000 units .  There is usually some leeway in there probably built into contract +/- 5% for instance . Or could it be the case that Hornby haven't actually contracted final amounts with manufactures when they announce their program in January . Say they think they can sell 5000 of Model A  but on hunting round for a facility to make it , they can only get 3000.  Then they have to reconfirm  and the person with the largest orders catches a cold!   All supposition , but plausible 

[Michael Hodgson]

If they place an order with China for 5000 of an item and it sells out quickly, I don't understand why they don't just place a repeat order.  I'm sure that would be easier the second time around than the first, for both parties.

[atom3624]

Perhaps the quality of the mould is designed in - not anticipated to be of acceptable definition beyond 'x' impressions?

 

Al.

[Legend]

4 minutes ago, Michael Hodgson said:

If they place an order with China for 5000 of an item and it sells out quickly, I don't understand why they don't just place a repeat order.  I'm sure that would be easier the second time around than the first, for both parties.

 

Because capacity is constrained . You cant just add another 5000 to the order because time is only allocated for 5000. Increasing the quantity would delay all subsequent orders for other manufacturers . Yes you can order a second batch , but the slot may not be available until next year . 

Edited February 17, 2021 by Legend

[LimboBrit]

10 minutes ago, Legend said:

Say they think they can sell 5000 of Model A  but on hunting round for a facility to make it , they can only get 3000.

If something so extreme were to happen I could imagine it up-ending the financial viability of the project.

[truffy]

2 hours ago, spamcan61 said:

There is, you announce early in the development so that pre-orders can be taken before production quantities are finalised; but that's not Hornby's modus operandi and I can't see that changing.

Perhaps thay're concerned that some b*****d's likely to swoop in and gazump them. Oh, hang on, that's their MO.

[caradoc]

1 hour ago, Legend said:

 

Because capacity is constrained . You cant just add another 5000 to the order because time is only allocated for 5000. Increasing the quantity would delay all subsequent orders for other manufacturers . Yes you can order a second batch , but the slot may not be available until next year . 

 

Which does beg the question; How did Hornby (to their great credit) repeatedly increase the quantity of Captain Tom Class 66 models produced last year, when it quickly became apparent that demand was hugely exceeding supply ? 

 

 

[3rd Rail Exile]

2 minutes ago, caradoc said:

 

Which does beg the question; How did Hornby (to their great credit) repeatedly increase the quantity of Captain Tom Class 66 models produced last year, when it quickly became apparent that demand was hugely exceeding supply ? 

 

 

Presumably, booked slots to manufacture other things got swapped to allow 66s to be made.  Hornby must have (correctly IMHO) made a judgement call that whatever was delayed as a consequence wasn't so time sensitive.  There are a number of models (already delayed due to other issues) that seem to be put back and back, but I doubt Hornby would ever confirm exactly what was delayed as a result of the swap.  

[brushman47544]

1 hour ago, caradoc said:

 

Which does beg the question; How did Hornby (to their great credit) repeatedly increase the quantity of Captain Tom Class 66 models produced last year, when it quickly became apparent that demand was hugely exceeding supply ? 

 

 

Presumably by giving up production slots for other items at the factory concerned, or perhaps they had slots available because other models under development were not ready for production in the slot reserved for them.

Edited February 17, 2021 by brushman47544