Preorder email

[john new]

Someone is telling porkies, I suspect Hornby.

 

This is in my Hattons cancellation update email of this morning - "Sold out on pre-order", but not according to Hornby  who are still offering it but with no prospect of delivery before July (3rd Q 2021).

 

Having watched Line of Duty - which one is H!

 

Edited April 23, 2021 by john new

[woodenhead]

32 minutes ago, Legend said:

 

While the origin maybe Hornby it is still very much a Hattons problem,  Faced with previous experience who could confidently pre order Hornby from Hattons again?  It must damage their business . It could be they are feeling the effect more than others because they are larger and I suspect more of their trade is mail order than some other shops that may have more over the counter trade . What this means for these shops is that any shortfall just means they have nothing to sell over counter but they can still satisfy their pre orders , whereas with Hattons there is less buffer .  Who knows?  But  even if they restrict pre orders to a tenth of what they have on order , clearly a ludicrous position, based on DToS experience they may still have an issue ! It really is appalling service by Hornby .

It is a problem yes for Hattons, but the problem isn't Hattons it's Hornby.

 

When the thread began it was all about Hattons and how they might be having supply issues with Hornby or overselling.

[CUCKOO LINE]

Maybe Hornby have a different perception to the dealers on saleability of a model and then have difficulties aligning production and allocation ? This is a problem when the supply chain is a long way away and not that flexible as companies in other industries have found. Maybe we have gone from Hornby overpredicting demand and then having to sell at big discounts to Hornby under estimating demand. 

[mvwilson]

6 minutes ago, CUCKOO LINE said:

Maybe Hornby have a different perception to the dealers on saleability of a model and then have difficulties aligning production and allocation ? This is a problem when the supply chain is a long way away and not that flexible as companies in other industries have found. Maybe we have gone from Hornby overpredicting demand and then having to sell at big discounts to Hornby under estimating demand. 

Then why are they still selling them on the Hornby website?

[ruggedpeak]

Having defended Hornby I would be extremely disappointed to find this is a reversion to selling direct at the expense of retailers.

 

Perhaps Simon K can provide some info. I have a very significant sum on pre-order with retailers from 2020 and 2021 ranges. However I can easily shift that to other manufacturers if Hornby are going direct and those are cancelled. As a modern image modeller there is plenty of new models out there to choose from. Hornby loyalty will be broken by another direct selling fiasco. Lets hope Hornby provide some clarity.

[CUCKOO LINE]

Another problem with remote supply chain is when things don't go to plan and you don't get all you expect. Sounds that maybe also happening and you protect your own allocation and cut every one else's. What is not particularly good is if Hornby don't explain the issue properly, probably good old COVID will be blamed as it is easy to do so!

[Free At Last]

1 hour ago, CUCKOO LINE said:

Another problem with remote supply chain is when things don't go to plan and you don't get all you expect. Sounds that maybe also happening and you protect your own allocation and cut every one else's. 

But it should be the retailers that are Hornby's customers, not the general public.

Edited April 23, 2021 by Free At Last

[Legend]

48 minutes ago, CUCKOO LINE said:

Another problem with remote supply chain is when things don't go to plan and you don't get all you expect. Sounds that maybe also happening and you protect your own allocation and cut every one else's. What is not particularly good is if Hornby don't explain the issue properly, probably good old COVID will be blamed as it is easy to do so!

 

When we order materials from China , we get it .   Difficulty is usually if you want to add to order or amend it in any way , then you have problems because there is a schedule or allocation , and if someone wants to extend their run then there's a knock on effect and ultimately someone gets disappointed. There is usually a finite capacity. So there has to be discipline . We certainly don't order 10000 and get 1000 to give an  example .  I'm wondering if its Hornbys old problems of not securing enough manufacturing capacity in time . They maybe assumed they had capacity but have been outbid . Again who knows . But really its a pretty bad position .   And yet W1s and Network Rail DVTs , two of the models specifically mentioned are available to pre order on Hornby website now .   Could it be instead of say an 80/20 split retailers/ own website , Hornby have switched to 20/80  realising they make more money that way?

 

 

 

[john new]

55 minutes ago, Legend said:

 

When we order materials from China , we get it .   Difficulty is usually if you want to add to order or amend it in any way , then you have problems because there is a schedule or allocation , and if someone wants to extend their run then there's a knock on effect and ultimately someone gets disappointed. There is usually a finite capacity. So there has to be discipline . We certainly don't order 10000 and get 1000 to give an  example .  I'm wondering if its Hornbys old problems of not securing enough manufacturing capacity in time . They maybe assumed they had capacity but have been outbid . Again who knows . But really its a pretty bad position .   And yet W1s and Network Rail DVTs , two of the models specifically mentioned are available to pre order on Hornby website now .   Could it be instead of say an 80/20 split retailers/ own website , Hornby have switched to 20/80  realising they make more money that way?

 

 

 

Not just the W1 & DVT, my cancelled order was for the DVLR Jim, a 2020 announcement already months late, now cancelled by the retailer but still on Hornby's site as available. Desirable, but not essential, so I will save cash and not bother re-ordering - outcome both manufacturer and retailer are losing out. I might still buy one later in the year when they actually arrive but not on a pre-order. My experiences of pre-orders so far:-

• Hattons - 4 orders one delivered but months late (their Class 66), the second (Jim) now cancelled, the third (Oxford P3) months overdue and still waiting. The fourth is Hornby's announced Rowntrees livery shunter - who knows when if ever that will arrive!
• TMC - Their G5, way overdue, still not under construction, but at least project progress news gets released occasionally.
• Rails - Hardwicke and KOYLI -  awaiting news on whether they will/won't be issued roughly on time.

You can see why, as I posted earlier in the thread, I have lost faith in the whole current system for getting newly announced items by pre-order, it lacks credibility.

 

Edited April 23, 2021 by john new
Punctuation corrected

[john new]

35 minutes ago, scumcat said:

Yet I still don’t understand why nobody complains when Hattons make a model that only they sell.Or until recently that only accurascale sold their models and other smaller manufacturers. Maybe this is the model of sales Hornby prefer. Maybe it saves them money and reduces price increases. It maybe like it or lump it time.

The principle of a manufacturer only selling direct is not the issue, it appeared initially that either the retailer has knowingly oversold their allocations (statements from DToS kill that idea) or the manufacture has shifted the goalposts and raised their end of the pitch! The snag with ordering direct from Hornby is they don't do value added extras like fitting a DCC chip. Yes, I could do it myself, but easier to buy in. 

[ruggedpeak]

20 hours ago, john new said:

either the retailer has knowingly oversold their allocations or the manufacture has shifted the goalposts and raised their end of the pitch!

I have a sneaking suspicion it is a bit of both in reality.........

[adb968008]

On 23/04/2021 at 11:28, john new said:

Having watched Line of Duty - which one is H!

 

The one whos name begins with C.

 

[adb968008]

A short history of Pre-Orders,..

 

 

pre2017.. secured the cheapest price.

2018 secured last years price.

2019 pointless pre-ordering no competition, everyone the same. 

2020 if didnt pre-order, you find out its too late and missed out.

2021 pre-order in 4 places, hope one comes good, ebay is the winner.

 

Edited April 24, 2021 by adb968008

[melmerby]

On 17/04/2021 at 18:12, Mike Harvey said:

 

The Job Centre in Letchworth used have a permanent ad in the window which went something like "young man wanted for inspecting ladies underwear".

How much per hour did you have to pay?

[The Stationmaster]

On 23/04/2021 at 11:28, john new said:

Someone is telling porkies, I suspect Hornby.

 

This is in my Hattons cancellation update email of this morning - "Sold out on pre-order", but not according to Hornby  who are still offering it but with no prospect of delivery before July (3rd Q 2021).

 

Having watched Line of Duty - which one is H!

 

Hornby don't appear to be telling porkies because they aren't saying anything.  And not saying anything is probably even worse than telling porkies?   It is increasingly clear that for whatever reason Hornby have not been able to honour the. orders placed with them by retailers although it is far from clear if the 'rationing' (as Hornby used to call it) is being spread equally among retailers.   The other worrying thing - as alreeady noted - is that pre-ordering from Hornby direct does not seem to have been affected which takes us back to the behaviour of a previous management where preference was obviously being given to making stock available for direct sale instead of releasing it to retailers.

 

Hornby appear to be digging themselves into an increasingly deeper hole and there is clearly something wrong somewhere.  Either they oversold product at the time dealers were placing their orders - which looks increasingly likely to have been the case as the agony spreads - or for whatever reason they reduced their orders with the factories for particular models (or all models?) despite the fact that they had retailer orders for those items.   However in a trading statement issued by Hornby on 13 April they said that in the 4th quarter group sales were 28% up on last year - excellent news. However net cash as at 31 March 2021 was down to £4.7 million compared with net cash of £5.4 million the previous year.   And, I directly quote from that statement, perhaps because of its relevance here (?)  -

 

'Whilst the COVID-19 pandemic continues to present uncertainty, both Hornby and our suppliers have been able to operate more effectively through the current restrictions than was the case in the first lockdown, as evidenced by the resilient levels of activity seen in Q4.'

 

So if supplies are 'resilient' (in Q4) and 'both Hornby and our suppliers have been operating more effectively through the current restrictions' why is there an apparent inability to satisfy orders placed, no doubt in good faith, by retailers?  Comes back to the central question if supplies are 'resilient' - did Hornby oversell when taking their trade orders or is something else going on?  

Edited April 25, 2021 by The Stationmaster

[Jonboy]

The other bit that floats through my mind is would Hornby need to issue a trading update to their shareholders before commenting publicly on what is going on if it threatens long term perfomance?

 

(I have always worked for a ltd rather than plc with the insider trading rules/obligations to shareholders etc to take into account).

[The Stationmaster]

On 23/04/2021 at 18:23, scumcat said:

Yet I still don’t understand why nobody complains when Hattons make a model that only they sell.Or until recently that only accurascale sold their models and other smaller manufacturers. Maybe this is the model of sales Hornby prefer. Maybe it saves them money and reduces price increases. It maybe like it or lump it time.

I can buy - if I wish - Hattons models direct across the counter at my most local model shop.  Maybe that is one of Hornby's problems although it has to be said that one of their marketing people a good many years back dismissed retailer commissioning as a passing fad which wouldn't last. 

Edited April 25, 2021 by The Stationmaster

[woodenhead]

2 minutes ago, Jonboy said:

The other bit that floats through my mind is would Hornby need to issue a trading update to their shareholders before commenting publicly on what is going on if it threatens long term perfomance?

 

(I have always worked for a ltd rather than plc with the insider trading rules/obligations to shareholders etc to take into account).

I guess it all depends what the problem is - if it is a single model line probably not as the dent in overall performance will be lower, if there is a general issue then they will at some point have to say something to the shareholders

[The Stationmaster]

3 minutes ago, Jonboy said:

The other bit that floats through my mind is would Hornby need to issue a trading update to their shareholders before commenting publicly on what is going on if it threatens long term perfomance?

 

(I have always worked for a ltd rather than plc with the insider trading rules/obligations to shareholders etc to take into account).

It is the usual time of year for the issue of a trading statement by Hornby to its shareholders and it has to comply with the relevant Regulations in respect of such information.  It was folowed by an increase in the share price of a bit over 10% but there have been no t reportable share trades by individuals since the statement.

[woodenhead]

3 minutes ago, The Stationmaster said:

I can buy - if I wish - Hattons models direct across the counter at my most local model shop.  Maybe that is one of Hornby's problems although it has to be said that one of their marketing people a good many years back dismissed retailer commissioning as a passing fad which wouldn't last. 

I think all the smaller companies began going down the direct route as it was the least risk - crowdfund, delivery direct to customers and then repeat.  But as they became established then they could commit to working with retailers, Hattons clearly recognised they could reposition themselves as somewhere in between the manufacturer - retailer and be both (to the ire of Bachmann).  I am not sure that selling some items through wholesale and then keeping other models of their own to themselves is the best, it smacks of what Hornby appear to be doing and maybe Hornby got the idea from Hattons.

[ruggedpeak]

https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/Hornby/news/rns/story/xzmlj3w

 

[Trains4U]

1 hour ago, woodenhead said:

I think all the smaller companies began going down the direct route as it was the least risk - crowdfund, delivery direct to customers and then repeat.  But as they became established then they could commit to working with retailers, Hattons clearly recognised they could reposition themselves as somewhere in between the manufacturer - retailer and be both (to the ire of Bachmann).  I am not sure that selling some items through wholesale and then keeping other models of their own to themselves is the best, it smacks of what Hornby appear to be doing and maybe Hornby got the idea from Hattons.

 

Hattons ceased their wholesale operation in January.

 

my stocks of Hattons products are dwindling and will not be replaced  (which is sad as the little tank engines sell particularly well)

[Kaput]

Quote

Hattons ceased their wholesale operation in January.

 

I had begun to wonder about that. They kept it rather quiet it seems.

[Philou]

I was told similarly last week - which means I shan't be able to get the Genesis stock through my 'local' shop ........

[john new]

21 hours ago, woodenhead said:

I guess it all depends what the problem is - if it is a single model line probably not as the dent in overall performance will be lower, if there is a general issue then they will at some point have to say something to the shareholders

At least three lines, have been mentioned. My cancellation was one of the small Rustons, DVTs and the  new Thompson Pacific’s W1 also mentioned in posts above. Are there more types cancelled?

 

Edited April 26, 2021 by john new
Corrected to W1