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Luckily when the employer I worked for back in the 1990s also bought in a piece of software that was arithmetically faulty* I managed to find the underlying issue and report it to finance before the Internal Audit started to fully investigate the income shortfall/ discrepancies. The outcome of the problem was substantial differences between what was being actually banked by the circa 600 customers of that function and the predicted income. Had I not found the cause first it would have been an obvious next step by Audit to look for some form of staff fraud by me or a bad apple in my team. Unfortunately the sub-posties were not so lucky and no one in authority believed their mass protestations of innocence. A true scandal.

 

* The name, supplier name and administration function it was bought for are deliberately not named for the obvious reasons. IIRC looking back one, but not the only maths error, was it wasn’t properly calculating and recording the VAT on fees as we had an early payment discount and somehow, as a consequence, the printed invoice values differed from what the system was recording internally as the due amounts!

Edited by john new
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On 29/04/2021 at 20:46, woodenhead said:

Crikey, even something as basic as a Limby 121 can't be guaranteed :(

The hypothesis that Hornby are going back to direct retail I just cant see applying to that one, but maybe it gives a clue..


Perhaps its as simple as optimising space in the container to get product on shelves by reducing quantities ?.. a few of many models being better than a lot of one model ?


If supply is the constraint, silence might be prudent...sure it might lead to speculation & disquiet but if stuff keeps coming, and the website has stock then its hard to say there is a problem. Consumers can buy what they want... That means theres nothing to see here, apart from the grumblings & speculation on the internet, which amounts to very little in the big picture.


 


 

 

 

 

Edited by adb968008
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I wonder if retailers are seeing the same with Corgi, Scalextrix etc?

 

As Hornby are saying the NR DVT and 121's have now landed it will be interesting to see what happens. I have the former on pre-order with a retailer and no sign of a cancellation as yet.

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10 hours ago, adb968008 said:

The hypothesis that Hornby are going back to direct retail I just cant see applying to that one, but maybe it gives a clue..

 

Well a page back in this thread there's a retailer announcing they're not receiving their full allocation on this old 'un so it seems to apply.

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10 hours ago, adb968008 said:

If supply is the constraint, silence might be prudent...

Except any significant constraint that will impact on sales/financial performance will need to be reported at some point as they are a PLC. The last update was a few weeks ago that made no reference to problems despite the growing pre-order cancellations well under way by then.

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11 hours ago, adb968008 said:

The hypothesis that Hornby are going back to direct retail I just cant see applying to that one, but maybe it gives a clue..


Perhaps its as simple as optimising space in the container to get product on shelves by reducing quantities ?.. a few of many models being better than a lot of one model ?


If supply is the constraint, silence might be prudent...sure it might lead to speculation & disquiet but if stuff keeps coming, and the website has stock then its hard to say there is a problem. Consumers can buy what they want... That means theres nothing to see here, apart from the grumblings & speculation on the internet, which amounts to very little in the big picture.


 


 

 

 

 

That doesn't necessarily sit very easily with Hornby's own words - to their shareholders, and the world at large through RNS - that supplies are 'resilient'.  If you are a retailer whose order is summarily cancelled, without explanation  (or a customer who has pre-ordered an item from their regular retailer and won't receive it),  that doesn't strike me as being in the least 'resilient'.

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Coming out on social media now, see comments section of this FB post (presume you need FB to view). Hornby are pushing out several FB posts a day. I don't use other social media so no idea if they are doing the same. I wonder if the PR department is connected to the sales department? Looks like they are pushing out template PR guff without knowing either the sales & distribution strategy has changed or they have other issues. Or they do know and don't care.

 

https://www.facebook.com/officialhornby/photos/a.10150197267445843/10157697592610843/

 

e.g. "All of these models are currently available to pre-order either via the Hornby website or your local Hornby stockist". Errr, sorry. I disagree. My pre-order has been cancelled because Hornby has not honored the pre-order from my chosen model shop. I am not ordering a Grant Rail 48DS from anybody else either. Why should I reward Hornby for failure?

 

Would anyone from Hornby care to comment about orders not being honoured? [with pic of Hattons cancelled order]

 

I wonder if Hornby really understand the realities of online? One of them, a lesson I've seen learnt the hard way by some major car manufacturers and other big brands, is that dealing direct with the public exposes everything. There is no "human shield" of retailers to take some of the flak when there are problems. Seen one major car brand rapidly reverse out of dealing directly with customers via social media as it rapidly filled up with unresolved warranty and dealer issues. They were the usual fob off situations you get with new cars, except social media meant instead of them being between customer and dealer they were now online for all to see! If you have a premium but unreliable brand this is not good :scratchhead:

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5 minutes ago, ruggedpeak said:

Coming out on social media now, see comments section of this FB post (presume you need FB to view). Hornby are pushing out several FB posts a day. I don't use other social media so no idea if they are doing the same. I wonder if the PR department is connected to the sales department? Looks like they are pushing out template PR guff without knowing either the sales & distribution strategy has changed or they have other issues. Or they do know and don't care.

 

https://www.facebook.com/officialhornby/photos/a.10150197267445843/10157697592610843/

 

e.g. "All of these models are currently available to pre-order either via the Hornby website or your local Hornby stockist". Errr, sorry. I disagree. My pre-order has been cancelled because Hornby has not honored the pre-order from my chosen model shop. I am not ordering a Grant Rail 48DS from anybody else either. Why should I reward Hornby for failure?

 

Would anyone from Hornby care to comment about orders not being honoured? [with pic of Hattons cancelled order]

 

I wonder if Hornby really understand the realities of online? One of them, a lesson I've seen learnt the hard way by some major car manufacturers and other big brands, is that dealing direct with the public exposes everything. There is no "human shield" of retailers to take some of the flak when there are problems. Seen one major car brand rapidly reverse out of dealing directly with customers via social media as it rapidly filled up with unresolved warranty and dealer issues. They were the usual fob off situations you get with new cars, except social media meant instead of them being between customer and dealer they were now online for all to see! If you have a premium but unreliable brand this is not good :scratchhead:

Just posted a query on their FB page - will see if they reply or delete it!

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28 minutes ago, john new said:

Just posted a query on their FB page - will see if they reply or delete it!

Done - and appears to have already been deleted! Screen grab as proof of posting below. Perhaps if we all bombard them with similar questions whoever manager their FB site they will at least get the strength of feeling on the issue and might pass it on up the line.

cropped Screenshot 2021-05-01 at 12.24.22.png

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I wonder if Hornby are in touch with the current "zeitgeist" (or whatever the word is). COVID etc has changed people's views on things. We are collectively much more interested in our local area/community etc than previously. This is coming out in market research, in politics etc where voxpops are suggesting voters are not interested in the behaviour in Westminster, but care about local politicians and what they will do locally to address local issues. Undermining the local model shop is no longer a shrug before we buy online, post-COVID means it is personal. For those on FB they will be aware that the proprietors at my local model shop, John Dutfield, had COVID on top all of of the other lockdown challenges. I am less concerned at paying retail over discount. I am paying a lot more for a haircut for example to help sustain my local barbers and tip more as I have the luxury of a well paid job and need to help bring things back to normal and support my local businesses. What was a bit of a chore and the chance for a quick natter is now personal interaction with sole traders who have had no income for months at a time.

 

That suggests to me that in the post-COVID world any brand that has strong loyalty based on family, community, shared history etc (sound familiar Hornby?) may be unwise to shut out small retailers right now as there will be a backlash against anyone undermining the high street. A purely marketing led approach failed last time and the timing is questionable to try it again. We not only understand the business impact on the retailers but have shared their personal experiences of COVID.

 

Hornby please note, for longstanding customers like me if the plan is cutting out model retailers in a post-COVID world,

 

Its-not-business-Its-Personal.png?fit=64

 

Let's hope it is all a big misunderstanding and normal service will be resumed. Time to fire up the reverse ferret? A bit of comms would be a start.

 

reverseferret-logo-230x300.jpg

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Like you I support my local toy shop/kits/model railway retailer when I can and am happy to pay RRP for convenience. Sadly though they don't stock the full Hornby ranges, for example they rarely stock in any diesels!

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37 minutes ago, ruggedpeak said:

Seen one major car brand rapidly reverse out of dealing directly with customers via social media as it rapidly filled up with unresolved warranty and dealer issues

 

Many people are under the misapprehension that social medias in the form of Facebook, Twitter and Instagram are an engagement channel; they're not, it's just a low-cost broadcast medium - so don't expect answers. It's unlikely their marketing people would be monitoring or responding over a holiday weekend, they don't value customers that highly if they refer problems elsewhere in the supply chain.

 

There are some within the hobby that will respond to questions such as Accurascale, Modelu and retailers but the larger organisations don't have the same personal investment. It's the way of the world.

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5 minutes ago, AY Mod said:

 

Many people are under the misapprehension that social medias in the form of Facebook, Twitter and Instagram are an engagement channel; they're not, it's just a low-cost broadcast medium - so don't expect answers. It's unlikely their marketing people would be monitoring or responding over a holiday weekend, they don't value customers that highly if they refer problems elsewhere in the supply chain.

 

There are some within the hobby that will respond to questions such as Accurascale, Modelu and retailers but the larger organisations don't have the same personal investment. It's the way of the world.

Don't disagree Andy, but if John New's post is accurate then someone is monitoring them.....I agree there won't be any direct response on social media, possibly at any point, but the pre-order issue does seem to extend beyond grizzled/grumpy RMWebbers like me!

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9 minutes ago, john new said:

Like you I support my local toy shop/kits/model railway retailer when I can and am happy to pay RRP for convenience

 

I've long been of the mindset of supporting local businesses for important stuff like the butcher, baker, garage and model shop as I still want them to be there when I need them, the price ticket isn't the issue, accessibility and quality of service is. I'll cast the net wider and cheaper where I don't need that particular business to be there next time.

 

A year ago shoppers were scrabbling around supermarkets for fresh meat, we could just walk around the corner to the butcher who was supplying his regulars with their normal needs whilst declining those who wanted to empty the place never to be seen again. He obviously didn't want to lose his future business for a quick buck. If he can understand that so should some bigger operations.

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7 minutes ago, ruggedpeak said:

if John New's post is accurate then someone is monitoring them

 

As I said, it's broadcast only.

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I have been following this topic with great commercial and personal interest.

 

Having been a Hornby stockist in the bad old days. We could order what we liked in pretty much any quantities. Delivery and out into the shelves. Fantastic. First customer through the door... ‘do you price match Hornby?’. Check Hornby website and it’s being sold for less than we paid for it. Angry phone call... basically that’s tough... 

 

Jump forward to 2020 and Hornby are producing some fabulous products. Announcements made, order in within minutes of the announcement. 

 

Let’s use the scenario of what might have happened with the Limited Edition Triangle Rocket. I can almost see the place where the Trials took place. Making 500, bold gamble ‘we will have them all’. Hornby...’ you’re not being fair’. You can’t have them all. But l know we can sell them, Hornby won’t sell them to us. Commercially, Hornby have produced a product and sold them all. Happy shareholders. Unhappy, all the rest of the Hornby stockists . 

 

A bit bit far fetched, yes, but no?  Hornby are in the business of selling to make a profit , they could have sold them all and saved on sending multiple parcels all over the country. Thankfully for all retailers they haven’t operated like that. Instead they have an allocation process.

 

l am fairly sure when Hornby decide on numbers for a production run, the most important consideration is that run will sell out. Stock in warehouses is a financial liability.

 

Fast forward to the start of this topic. 

 

When Hornby decided on numbers, there was no pandemic and no one had heard of Fairlough, Covid and Lockdown would have been the latest film on Sky Cinema.

 

The last twelve months and some more has seen unprecedented gardening, decorating etc. More importantly model railways are being turned into layouts instead of having to find the time to do it, we had plenty of time.

 

So Hornby decided to make 500 of a model, 600 were sold on various websites, customers in the shop etc. Only solution is to cut back on allocation and try and do it fairly. Disappointed retailers, customers and very disappointed Hornby no doubt. 

 

Hornby could of course return to the ‘bad old days’ and we could return to the Fire Sales. Results? Very angry retailers, even angrier customers who had bought at full price and now see it at half the price on Hornby’s website. Retailers having to slash their prices just to get something back. Outcome? Another model shop decides it’s no longer worth staying open. 

 

Conclusion? Can only give my thoughts. We would love to have more Hornby products that are guaranteed to sell. We would all want to satisfy customers and not have to let anyone down. For that matter we would all love customers who don’t let retailers down. Reading about placing multiple orders to make sure that you get your order from anywhere could just be artificially making the problem worse. We sell out to pre order and then we have the order cancelled by customers who have placed orders with multiple retailers. We will have turned down pre orders as we had sold our allocation.

 

Apologies for the long post. As can be seen this is just my thoughts. Our overriding wish is for Hornby to survive. Indeed my late mother may well have been involved in the building of that old loco in Binns Road, Liverpool. 

 

P.s. If you are wondering why l am writing this on a busy Saturday afternoon.? Currently nursing a bad back! 

Edited by Widnes Model Centre
Making clear scenario re Rocket.
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10 minutes ago, Widnes Model Centre said:

Currently nursing a bad back! 

Me too, you have my sympathies! Hope it gets better soon. My model money is being spent on a physio :cry:

 

Ironically the HM6000 I bought spontaneously last weekend from John Dutfields after a chat with Ken helps as it means more flexibility to operate my layout.

Edited by ruggedpeak
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9 hours ago, The Stationmaster said:

That doesn't necessarily sit very easily with Hornby's own words - to their shareholders, and the world at large through RNS - that supplies are 'resilient'.  If you are a retailer whose order is summarily cancelled, without explanation  (or a customer who has pre-ordered an item from their regular retailer and won't receive it),  that doesn't strike me as being in the least 'resilient'.

I totally agree, but silence is stronger than a negative message... and is hard to argue against, especially if stock is “in stock” on the website.

Problem, what problem ?


its got to be a brave retailer to “go public”, given the risks.

 

I still think the truth is somewhere in the middle.. 2020 was the most exciting range in years, and think demand has got the better of some of us, some have definitely taken advantage of a heightened demand. 
similarly covid world is supplying the worst of us...rebalancing is painful, pre-orders are being canceled now.  
 I suspect it might be customers cancelling later, if it becomes apparent future supply might not be constrained resulting in demand drops.

 

I think it will balance out, but i’m not wholly convinced the current issue is simply a Victim & a Perpertrator, theres two sides.

 

 

 

 

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On 30/04/2021 at 22:36, john new said:

Luckily when the employer I worked for back in the 1990s also bought in a piece of software that was arithmetically faulty* I managed to find the underlying issue and report it to finance before the Internal Audit started to fully investigate the income shortfall/ discrepancies. The outcome of the problem was substantial differences between what was being actually banked by the circa 600 customers of that function and the predicted income. Had I not found the cause first it would have been an obvious next step by Audit to look for some form of staff fraud by me or a bad apple in my team. Unfortunately the sub-posties were not so lucky and no one in authority believed their mass protestations of innocence. A true scandal.

 

* The name, supplier name and administration function it was bought for are deliberately not named for the obvious reasons. IIRC looking back one, but not the only maths error, was it wasn’t properly calculating and recording the VAT on fees as we had an early payment discount and somehow, as a consequence, the printed invoice values differed from what the system was recording internally as the due amounts!

As a retired internal auditor I would say it would have been their duty to look for evidence of possible fraud in such a situation and indeed reasonable to use that as their starting assumption but that I would consider them negligent if they did not also verify the computer calculations and thus discover the error.

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1 hour ago, Michael Hodgson said:

As a retired internal auditor I would say it would have been their duty to look for evidence of possible fraud in such a situation and indeed reasonable to use that as their starting assumption but that I would consider them negligent if they did not also verify the computer calculations and thus discover the error.

All a long time back. I know off topic but the trail was a bit complicated. The service accounts and other records had been confusing everyone for some time and I am not sure exactly what IA had previously found, although to the best of my knowledge not fraud just poor admin procedures by the previous service regime. 
 

The outcome though was a departmental/management reshuffle and administering the service, including the bought in software, then came under my remit and we did revise record keeping processes in the following months. One of the senior finance managers was contacted by a friend of his when the next lot of annual renewals went out (10 months or so on from the changeover) as he thought his invoice looked wrong*. My team were asked to check it, it was wrong, and so we discovered were many others; the work we did found the fault and it was passed it over to finance and legal to resolve with the supplier. IA then found more things wrong internally in the finance logs which explained past discrepancies. One was the reported global totals output didn’t match the total of the individual invoices when added up outside the system. System obviously quickly scrapped and replaced by one our in-house IT team wrote. Part of the reason I said luckily was the timing allowed us (i.e. the service team) to find the system was faulty very quickly and then work in liaison with IA and the accounts teams to resolve things.

 

The system concerned was used elsewhere, and had been for a year or two previously, we were the first to find the calculation bugs. As I said earlier the Sub-Posties should have been believed. Like the sub-posties we had trusted that the working system as inherited by us was fit for purpose, backed up by other organisations also using it.

 

*  superficially it looked correct but one of the units used for the calculation was not correct. Can’t describe it without giving away the service but A & B held in the data base - it charged out at £ x A not B therefore a quick spot check look at a printed invoice didn’t highlight anything amiss. A was the smaller amount. 

 

Edited by john new
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As we have seen retailers pre-orders cut dramatically on the NR DVT and 121, both of which are now in stock at Hornby, it will be interesting to see what happens. My retailer pre-order for the DVT has not been cancelled yet.

 

Both items are still available to pre-order at certain retailers as well as Hornby.....

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12 minutes ago, ac1874 said:

Just had my 7 car APT cancelled by Hattons.

Same here along with my Avanti pendolino. so now that's LNER W1 Hush-Hush , LNER Farewell HST with 7 MK3s, BR MK3 DVT, and now the Avanti pendolino and 7 car APT-P. Although the additional SKUS and Pendolino coaches are not yet cancelled. I'm not holding my breath there.

 

Perhaps Hornby should now revive their early 1980s slogan Nothing goes like it...Hornby!

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Had my 7 car APT cancelled as well by Hattons just now (Ordered not long after it was announced) ... Luckily ordered the whole lot direct with Hornby last week pre-empting this may well happen sooner or later.

 

Interestingly I had been keeping an eye on the Hornby site last few months and not long back certain parts were not available yet all of a sudden it was all available for pre-order again.

 

Oh well, That was the last of my Hattons ordered now cancelled which is a bit of shame as in all honesty have had no problems with Hattons until last year but honestly wondering now whether reading a few pages back Hattons are even at fault here or are simply taking the blunt end of supply cuts form Hornby.

 

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I fail to see the point in pre-ordering at all with Hornby now. It's got to the point where I've even cancelled the pre-orders I have at other retailers bar Hattons (who cancelled all of mine anyway) and I'll just join the bun fight when stock arrives. 

 

The last thing I want is to be sat on a pre-order, watch it go on for sale and then sell out everywhere else and then be contacted to say my pre-order cannot be fulfilled. 

 

Over the last six years or so this has happened multiple times, so, for Hornby at least, I just won't bother any more.

 

Cheers,

  60800

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