Get used to fewer trains - a discussion

[woodenhead]

Latest thoughts on post pandemic travel - discuss

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-56198750

[Gordon Connell]

The trouble is I think it's going to take a while for it to become clear. I note there that this story was also posted on the BBC business pages today:  Goldman Sachs: Bank boss rejects work from home as the 'new normal' - BBC News 

 

Edited February 25, 2021 by Gordon Connell

[DY444]

I note that a few financial institutions have come out and said that home working is not going to be their modus operandi going forward and they expect everyone in the office at some point.  That suggests City of London/Canary Wharf numbers won't be down as much as some commentators think.  I think the danger now is that the railways start pruning back just as things open up with a consequent surge in demand and we end up with over crowding which won't help in the short term with efforts to quell the virus.  However we'll see.

[great central]

For what it's worth, our lot are still talking up increased services from the timetable alteration in May. These being on top of stuff that ran before covid.

Can't help thinking there's two different conversations going on.

[woodenhead]

I think London will be ok - you've still got CrossRail to come which will benefit Canary Wharf and it's environs, I reckon it will be further out where the reductions will happen, perhaps intercity - Manchester to London will not fully return to 20 minute departure intervals.

[Pete the Elaner]

46 minutes ago, Gordon Connell said:

The trouble is I think it's going to take a while for it to become clear. I note there that this story was also posted on the BBC business pages today:  Goldman Sachs: Bank boss rejects work from home as the 'new normal' - BBC News 

 

 

You only have to speak to those claiming that 'they get much more done from home'. I have heard this a lot from people but when you phone them they don't answer their work phone. Call their mobile & you get "I'm just been out walking to dog" or "I just had to pop to the shops" or "the wife just wanted me to..." & this is not the exception, it is more of the time.

There are advantages like when I called US users at home after their working day to fix their VPN hardware, but this did not come close to recovering the time lost to home distractions.

After being forced to work from home for so long, it will also be nice to have a face to face conversation with what is going on at work.

 

So I agree that we really don't know how things will be after the pandemic. Surely train operators will want to use their fleets. An idle train makes no money.

[great central]

^^^. From what I can see at times if there's too rapid a return to train travel some fleets are going to become overcrowded very quickly.

[flapland]

I think the large financial institutions are considering how much they have invested in their own office accommodation and property in general. They have a very vested interest in a return to pre-covid way of working. I think for many other businesses they can see the benefits of a better work/life balance in their teams, plus the chance to save on expensive office rentals. 

 

For myself and my team I expect we will be around 50/50 in terms of office/home working plus perhaps some 9 day fortnights as well. At the moment the preference is a week in the office a week at home due to weekly travel cards. I hope they become flexible perhaps a 10 or 15 days a month season ticket for example.

[caradoc]

It has been said previously, by myself and others, that a reduction in peak hour traffic would actually benefit the railways by evening out loadings through the day and making better use of resources. However, it remains to be seen what the service reductions actually are !

 

 

[APOLLO]

Fewer trains, but inflation-busting fare rises every year until eternity.

 

Brit15

[Mike Storey]

On the InterCity routes, most business is not from commuting, or even business travel anyway, these days (pre-Covid). I do not see a reduction in visiting friends and family, student travel and general leisure trips. In fact, with the cost of car travel increasing exponentially, from increased insurance, increased fuel costs (now becoming apparent), increased parking and congestion costs and the increased initial cost of cars due to ecological needs, I cannot see any reduction in demand from this quarter. But business/commuting travel remains an unknown.

 

What I do know is, despite all the forecasts of reduced business demand once the internet took hold, travel actually increased. This was partly because increased internet activity caused increased needs for face to face sales/contractual negotiations, and partly because increased internet activity caused increased numbers of jobs needed to support the new business created. The improved internet capabilities may allow an increase in WFH, but that may also generate new business, so whilst commuting may decrease, possibly, overall demand may increase further.

 

However, all this depends on how Brexit affects the pattern of business generally. That is the un-talked about part of the equation. it is not political. It is about recognising that things have now fundamentally changed in some areas of commerce and industry. Quite how that will affect railway demand, both for passenger and freight, remains unknown as yet......

[TravisM]

I thought I’d throw my hat in the ring (if I had one) but I think normality will start slow but quickly improve because us “humans” as a species, need to interact and socialise, it’s in our DNA.  I think this working from home experience will quickly fade away and the usual daily routine of commuting will become the usual drudgery and crush hour will return.

 

If I was a betting man, trains and services will return to pre 2020 levels by early 2022 and we can put this horror behind us.

[mdvle]

6 hours ago, woodenhead said:

Latest thoughts on post pandemic travel - discuss

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-56198750

 

My take is that the NR person isn't so much predicting less demand - after the 80% commuter number the article eventually concedes NR is planning for 60% to 100% - but rather he seems to be indicating that parts of the network became unreliable because they were trying to run too many trains, and thus by cutting back the number of trains the overall system (and hence experience) improves as the system is more reliable.

 

This presumably is based on observation on how well the trains run under current conditions of significant reduced demand.

[NorthEndCab]

Personally I like the separation of work/home being different places.

 

I know not everyone will feel the same way, but the idea of working from home, never leaving the house and then just having things delivered to you (as all the high street shops are shut) seems rather dystopian and not for me. 

[Dagworth]

2 minutes ago, NorthEndCab said:

Personally I like the separation of work/home being different places.

Working from home is a misnomer. It should be called living at work. 
 

Andi

[Rods_of_Revolution]

The obvious choice is to return to the original timetable. No one loses their job and the worst possible complaint will be that the railways were as crowded as they were before. If it turns out that demand settles at 80% of pre-government restriction levels, then adjust the timetable to suit at the next timetable change. Previously the railway was often running at over 100% capacity, so even if it only reaches 80% of the previous demand, this probably equates to near 100% capacity in many instances anyway.

 

Cheers,

 

Jack

[great central]

One of the biggest challenges is likely to be passenger expectations. Those currently undertaking 'essential travel' are finding generally fairly empty trains where they can socially distance and feel 'safe'.

However, if, or rather when, trains do start to fill up again there will be those who see more people than they want to and will be quickly complaining that the railway is putting them in danger. It already happens on occasion, indeed it did last summer on some of our routes, and can often be seen on the various TOC social media feeds. How can the railway meet everyone's expectations?

It can't run mostly empty trains permanently to suit what is probably a small but vocal minority.

[DY444]

1 hour ago, great central said:

One of the biggest challenges is likely to be passenger expectations. Those currently undertaking 'essential travel' are finding generally fairly empty trains where they can socially distance and feel 'safe'.

However, if, or rather when, trains do start to fill up again there will be those who see more people than they want to and will be quickly complaining that the railway is putting them in danger. It already happens on occasion, indeed it did last summer on some of our routes, and can often be seen on the various TOC social media feeds. How can the railway meet everyone's expectations?

It can't run mostly empty trains permanently to suit what is probably a small but vocal minority.

 

I accept that last summer was a very specific exception but my view is that the railway's responsibility for passenger safety does not extend to ensuring passengers don't get infected by other passengers breathing.  The tendency that nobody is responsible for themselves any more has gone too far as it is without potentially extending to banning people with a cold or sniffle from travelling.  If you are concerned about travelling in proximity to others then don't use public transport.  Once most of the population has been vaccinated then the way of things has to be based on them not those that haven't.

[great central]

46 minutes ago, DY444 said:

 

I accept that last summer was a very specific exception but my view is that the railway's responsibility for passenger safety does not extend to ensuring passengers don't get infected by other passengers breathing.  The tendency that nobody is responsible for themselves any more has gone too far as it is without potentially extending to banning people with a cold or sniffle from travelling.  If you are concerned about travelling in proximity to others then don't use public transport.  Once most of the population has been vaccinated then the way of things has to be based on them not those that haven't.

 

I agree entirely and that is my personal opinion on the matter but it remains to be seen what those in charge say in the circumstances.

For a bit of, almost, comic illustration of what can happen a quick account of an incident several years ago.

I was travelling as a passenger, off duty and out of uniform, the train was held up due to a problem at a level crossing ahead. Sitting quietly waiting an announcement about the delay the person in the seat in front of me was talking quite animatedly, I presumed into a phone, about 'this always happens when I get on a train, it's always delayed' and similar phrases.

The fella opposite me looked across with raised eyebrows as this carried on for several minutes. Suddenly the bloke in front of me popped up above the seat back and started telling me all about it! It seems he had been chuntering to himself!

My fairly curt reply was along the lines of 'if you know that then why the hell get on the train then!' He looked rather surprised that someone should give such an answer and shrunk back into his seat in silence, and didn't utter another word until he got off the train! 

Fella opposite gave me a thumbs up as well!

[Reorte]

Higher than now, lower than pre-pandemic is a definite possibility, but it's too early to know how things will really shake out.

[Michael Hodgson]

5 hours ago, great central said:

It can't run mostly empty trains permanently to suit what is probably a small but vocal minority.

 

BR did that for decades.

[Nick C]

22 hours ago, Pete the Elaner said:

 

You only have to speak to those claiming that 'they get much more done from home'. I have heard this a lot from people but when you phone them they don't answer their work phone. Call their mobile & you get "I'm just been out walking to dog" or "I just had to pop to the shops" or "the wife just wanted me to..." & this is not the exception, it is more of the time.

There are advantages like when I called US users at home after their working day to fix their VPN hardware, but this did not come close to recovering the time lost to home distractions.

After being forced to work from home for so long, it will also be nice to have a face to face conversation with what is going on at work.

 

So I agree that we really don't know how things will be after the pandemic. Surely train operators will want to use their fleets. An idle train makes no money.

You only have to speak to those claiming that "they get much more done in the office". I have heard this a lot from people but when you phone them they don't answer their work phone. Call their mobile & you'll get "I'm just having a coffee" or "I'm on a cigarrette break" or "I'm in a meeting (which doesn't actually have anything to do with me)" & this is not the exception, it is more of the time.

 

I don't know what industry you're in, but I (in software development) get way more done at home - no-one having a loud speakerphone conversation just across the corridor, no "can you just", far fewer pointless meetings (and the few we do have, you can carry on working while listening in the background). If someone in my area wasn't pulling their weight it'd soon become obvious - just as it would in the office.

 

I'm really fed up of, every time this comes up, people who don't like home working insisting that it's terrible, that no-one does anything, and that everyone should be forced into the office full-time post-covid. If you want to cram yourself into an overcrowded train or traffic jam for two hours every day, fine, but don't force all of us to - what's wrong with letting people work out for themselves what suits them best?

[ess1uk]

Fewer trains, more chance of getting some work done in day light 

[LBRJ]

Not quite on topic, but not off it really either.

 

Back in the Autumn a new Sheffield to Manchester via Glossop bus service started (good timing there!)

For obvious reasons there has literally been no one on it on any service I have noticed - That is until Wednesday, when the weather was rather nice. The bus was suddenly at least half full, with what appeared to be "walkers".

 

As Mike Storey mentioned to Up Thread , there is a huge percentage of leisure travel on the railways these days - That aint gonna drop, if anything it is likely to rise.

 

[4630]

Roger Ford’s ‘Informed Sources’ pages in the forthcoming April* issue of Modern Railways has an article on the subject of rail revival post-Pandemic.

 

Should make for interesting reading. 
 

 

* UK subscriber issues should arrive over the next couple of days and available from the usual outlets from Thursday 25th March.