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If you were starting a new rtr manufacturer...


Joseph_Pestell
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Not really a small producer question but I could not find a better location for it.

 

This is by way of being a bit of marketing research. Given the current situation between Hornby and retailers (which seems to be a recurring event every couple of years), I think that we need a new entrant into the market if we are to keep the hobby vibrant. What should this new entrant produce?

 

I would like you to cast your minds back to around 1970. Triang-Hornby had about fifteen locos in the catalogue, some in various liveries. There were four types of Mk1 carriage, again in various liveries, and a selection of goods wagons. I would suggest that this would be the starting point for a new entrant.

 

I would like for you to answer these questions as objectively as possible. This is not a wishlist for what you want but an attempt to build up an idea of what would be a viable range to bring to market.

 

Qu1) Let's assume a constant standard of budget/detail across the range. What should that be: budget, detailed, super-detailed?

Qu2) Diesel era / steam era / a mix?

Qu3) Which 15 locos (inc DMU) would you include? (Note: Don't worry about replicating an item in another manufacturer's catalogue).

Qu4) Which 10 items of coaching stock would you include? (Note: All liveries included).

 

If some clever bod wishes to make this into a poll, please do. I have forgotten how.

 

I will make a start but come back to it later when I have more time.

 

I think that the range should be predominantly diesel era (10/5?) and "budget". By budget, I mean all dimensions accurate, no sharing of chassis except where correct to do so. But no fiddly and fragile details. Modellers who want them can add them from after-market parts.

 

I think that we have reached an era where DCC-only makes sense but with sound as an extra

 

In the diesels, I would put 37,47 and 66 as "must have". I will give some more thought to the other seven but I think 31, 101, 150, 158 and 50 will probably make the cut.

 

Steam. Has to be a Black 5, two 060T......

 

Coaches: 5 types of Mk1, 4 types of Mk3 (in both loco-hauled and HST format) ... 

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Why would any large scale manufacturer want to enter a small niche market and add further duplication?

 

Unless you drive one of the established manufacturers out of the market, you are going to have  a battle to secure market share & therefore a return on your investment. Bear in mind that Hornby has that established 'go to' brand that families know & trust.

 

I'm not sure that a new entrant budget, low detail & duplicated range will generate the volumes needed (and based on the batch nature of model making these days). We can see though that a high detail new entrant delivering new prototype offerings rather than duplication seems to able to get established and grow.

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Why not direct your questions directly to Accurascale and Rapido - after all they are both 'new entrants' to the UK market (along with others) and are already in competition with the established Hornby and Bachmann - in fact they have even taken on some of their staff.

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Unless ive misunderstood, the range youve picked out is almost entirely a copy of Hornby railroad.  As they are the dominant brand i doubt youd make much headway.  Accurascales business model looks far more robust offering models that either havent been done or were in need of modernising, with lots of detail at competitive cost. Any new entrant would need to offer something new rather than duplicate whats already there.  Hence i think your imagined company will struggle to off load yet more 66s 37s 47s  (all done to death)  and mark 1s, unless of course you sell at 1978 prices, in which case where do i place my order for a £5 class 31 please?

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Just for the record, if ihad a couple of million to drop into a new rtr company and wasnt bothered about getting a return Id launch "Great British Trains"  all stock would be p4 as supplied, but easily modified to oo, each item comes complete with a 12 inch piece of p4 flexi track, on which to display the model or hopefully to inspire gauge changing.

A range of 3 feet radius points, 3 feet radius set track curves and straights in 6, 12, 24 inch lengths available all in p4.

Locos: a class 40 all three nose styles, a class 83, a class 84,  a class 06,  steam:  a gwr collett goods, a LNWR Cauliflower and LNWR claughton.

Coaches, Lnwr bogie coaches, 4 designs, and  mk 2b range.

DMU EMU: class 120 3 car, class 303 

Everything with more detail than uou could shake a stick at.

 

And a big hole in my fictional bank balance.

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Hello Joseph

 

Some food for thought for you.

 

Qu1) Let's assume a constant standard of budget/detail across the range. What should that be: budget, detailed, super-detailed?

Detailed.

 

Qu2) Diesel era / steam era / a mix?

Mix.

 

Qu3) Which 15 locos (inc DMU) would you include? (Note: Don't worry about replicating an item in another manufacturer's catalogue).

GWR Hawksworth County 4-6-0

GWR 22xx 0-6-0

SR U/U1 Class 2-6-0

SR Z 0-8-0T

LMS Stanier Black 5 Caprotti (High & Low Running Plate)

LMS Stanier 3P 2-6-2T (40071-40209)

LMS Fowler 3P 2-6-2T (40001-40070)

LMS Fowler 4F 0-6-0 (44027-44606)

GNR J6 0-6-0

BR Standard Class 5 4-6-0 Caprotti

BR (Class 42) Swindon Warship B-B - 3-character headcode box (D800-D812)

BR Class 120 Swindon Cross-Country 3-car DMU

GWR Angular Style Twin Units (Nos.35/36 & 37/38)

SR Class 404 4-Cor, 4-Buf, 4-Res (Note: I believe only six tools are needed to produce all 12 vehicles)

SR/BR 4-Sub

 

Qu4) Which 10 items of coaching stock would you include? (Note: All liveries include

GWR Collett Composite Dining Car 57ft (Diag.H25)

SR Bulleid Tavern Car Sets

SR Bulleid Bournemouth Line 6-sets

LMS Stanier Period III Gangwayed Coaches (eg 57ft Open Third, 60ft Composite, as per original Airfix)

LNER Gresley Quad-Art Sets (Note: ran as two sets of four slightly different types)

LNER Gresley Quint-Art Sets (to go with Oxford N7)

LNER Gresley Triplet Articulated Restaurant Set (to go with below)

LNER Gresley End Door Stock (to 'round out' the stock one needs for A4s, A3s etc on the GN/ECML)

LNER Gresley General Service Stock 61ft 6in (to totally replace - and enlarge upon - the range by Hornby, which many say has a 'wrong shape'.)

LNER GE Section Stock 52ft 6in (to go with the many GER/LNER locos now available).

 

Hope that helps.

 

Brian

 

 

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Problem is that it’s not the 1960s anymore!
 

Although it’s true that there are two big players out there, there are a plethora of other commissioning companies (I say that because nobody apart from Bachman actually makes stuff ‘in house’ like they did in the hay day of railway modelling) producing items.

 

The other factor is that although the market for model railways is still healthy, it has undoubtedly shrunk since the glory days of the 1960s. While at one time a model railway / train set was at the top of kids (and maybe a few dads) wish lists, these days it’s far more likely that a PlayStation 5 gaming console will be the most desired item.

 

As for direct duplication - it has been tried many times but a cold hard analysis of the accounts will show it benefits nobody - be it consumers to commissioning companies / manufacturers as the size of the model railway market is simply too small.
 

Where duplication does work is where there are significant differences in detail - I.e. a Hornby Railroad 66 and a Hattons one. The closer the two models are in detail (and thus price) terms the less viable it becomes.

 

And that is a problem - pretty much everything you have suggested as a model is already covered by Hornbys ‘railroad’ tooling - and based on recent form I doubt Hornby are going to sit back and let a newbie muscle in on ‘it’s’ turf.

 

However, as with all new start ups there is a pressing need to start generating cash, not just spending it - going head to head with an established brand who can dust off existing tooling with relatively little outlay is not going to help when it comes to sales potential. That’s why most recent entrants to the market have deliberately gone for either things not previously modelled in OO, or things where the model that is on the market is extremely dated.

 

Therefore you can start up as many threads / polls as you want - it still remains the original premise of a newbie startup rocking up with a range of basic 66s, Mk1s, etc is simply uneconomic and not going to be remotely viable. Banks are not charities so unless someone has lots of to money to burn and is willing to bankroll a decade or mores worth of losses it simply isn’t going to happen.

 

 

 

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3 minutes ago, BMacdermott said:

Hello Joseph

 

Some food for thought for you.

 

Qu1) Let's assume a constant standard of budget/detail across the range. What should that be: budget, detailed, super-detailed?

Detailed.

 

Qu2) Diesel era / steam era / a mix?

Mix.

 

Qu3) Which 15 locos (inc DMU) would you include? (Note: Don't worry about replicating an item in another manufacturer's catalogue).

GWR Hawksworth County 4-6-0

GWR 22xx 0-6-0

SR U/U1 Class 2-6-0

SR Z 0-8-0T

LMS Stanier Black 5 Caprotti (High & Low Running Plate)

LMS Stanier 3P 2-6-2T (40071-40209)

LMS Fowler 3P 2-6-2T (40001-40070)

LMS Fowler 4F 0-6-0 (44027-44606)

GNR J6 0-6-0

BR Standard Class 5 4-6-0 Caprotti

BR (Class 42) Swindon Warship B-B - 3-character headcode box (D800-D812)

BR Class 120 Swindon Cross-Country 3-car DMU

GWR Angular Style Twin Units (Nos.35/36 & 37/38)

SR Class 404 4-Cor, 4-Buf, 4-Res (Note: I believe only six tools are needed to produce all 12 vehicles)

SR/BR 4-Sub

 

Qu4) Which 10 items of coaching stock would you include? (Note: All liveries include

GWR Collett Composite Dining Car 57ft (Diag.H25)

SR Bulleid Tavern Car Sets

SR Bulleid Bournemouth Line 6-sets

LMS Stanier Period III Gangwayed Coaches (eg 57ft Open Third, 60ft Composite, as per original Airfix)

LNER Gresley Quad-Art Sets (Note: ran as two sets of four slightly different types)

LNER Gresley Quint-Art Sets (to go with Oxford N7)

LNER Gresley Triplet Articulated Restaurant Set (to go with below)

LNER Gresley End Door Stock (to 'round out' the stock one needs for A4s, A3s etc on the GN/ECML)

LNER Gresley General Service Stock 61ft 6in (to totally replace - and enlarge upon - the range by Hornby, which many say has a 'wrong shape'.)

LNER GE Section Stock 52ft 6in (to go with the many GER/LNER locos now available).

 

Hope that helps.

 

Brian

 

 


But how many of that list do you want done as a ‘basic’ model!

 

The original post was pretty clear we are talking about low detail, ‘robust’ models.

 

If anyone did make more LMS Stainer period 3 stock then I (and many others) would want it to be a high detail model which can be run alongside Hornbys offerings.

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Hello phil-b259

 

Joseph's first question was: Should the standard be budget, detailed or super-detailed.

 

My reply was: Detailed.

 

Not sure what you find unclear about that.

 

And it all depends on one's interpretation of what 'detailed' or 'super-detailed' includes.

 

Brian

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Hi @Joseph_Pestell
Sorry about the irreverent post above, I couldn’t resist!

While I know nothing of your financial situation whatsoever, let’s take it seriously now.

To start off with a robust, budget range would be on a hiding to nothing imo because that’s part of what Hornby offer and they struggle financially. Whether or not it’s the budget range that causes the struggle or keeps them afloat is irrelevant - it exists and is an established and accepted brand.

To go super-detailed would cause you to pitch against very serious players who are well known on here and shall we say, meticulous in their details.

That really only leaves “detailed” and I really think it would be a very expensive gamble to get into that market. I don’t need to reel off these names I’m sure but there are quite a few now, all producing imo adequate to rather good models across all the different ranges.

This is assuming 4mm/00 if you are talking a different scale, I should say the margins expected would be worse.

Such a venture would need a unique selling point and the only ones I could suggest would be either a “new” scale I.e. 3mm or S for example.

OR

A completely new market in 4mm/00 such as the period 1880 - 1920.

Okay, there is now some items made that enter this period BUT it’s not saturated with stuff and it is of interest.

Food for thought?

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If anything I think that just like Rapido there might be another foreign manufacturer that will look to expand their business into the UK.  However when you look at European makers or USA the price per item get quite high compared to UK.  Say diesel/electric locos at £350 with sound and steam at £500, I doubt that the UK market would want that.

 

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I think the 00 gauge market is saturated now, just look at what’s available and the quality compared to 30 or 40 years ago. Other scales need consideration, but then I prefer kit building so what would I know. 

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3 hours ago, Mike Bellamy said:

 

Why not direct your questions directly to Accurascale and Rapido - after all they are both 'new entrants' to the UK market (along with others) and are already in competition with the established Hornby and Bachmann - in fact they have even taken on some of their staff.

 

And neither of them are trying to be all things to all people, both are picking off untapped bits of existing markets. Accurascale in particular seem to have hit gold with the 'iconic but really fiddly to kit/scratch build' end of the wagon market. 

 

If I had a couple of million quid to start a new business I'd be looking towards electric cars or whatever we're going to replace gas boilers with. I wouldn't be trying to break into an already saturated toy market. 

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4 hours ago, Joseph_Pestell said:

Qu1) Let's assume a constant standard of budget/detail across the range. What should that be: budget, detailed, super-detailed?

Qu2) Diesel era / steam era / a mix?

Qu3) Which 15 locos (inc DMU) would you include? (Note: Don't worry about replicating an item in another manufacturer's catalogue).

Qu4) Which 10 items of coaching stock would you include? (Note: All liveries included).

 

Q1 - For a new entrant I feel that detailed is the way to go. Budget tends to go for "train set" types models more suited to mass retailing. As a new manufacturer you would struggle to get access to a / some mass retailer(s) initially thus limited your market. 

 

Q2 - For the first models pick the one you want, you will be more passionate about it and will find it easier to sell. 

 

Q3 - I would start with a single loco, or at most 2. Once you have proven yourself with this then add more, rapidly if you want. Personally as a steam age modeller I would look towards a small tank loco suitable for a branch line rather than just yard work. I would also want something that has a preserved example to tap into that market as well. An M7, 57xx etc. 

 

Q4 - Again, I would limit the range significantly to start with. This stock would need to match the loco. I would try to go for only 2 types of coaches as a maximum. 

 

Dapol's entry into the n gauge market with a 14xx, b set and siphon seems like an effective model for starting a new range. 

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1 hour ago, BMacdermott said:

Hello phil-b259

 

Joseph's first question was: Should the standard be budget, detailed or super-detailed.

 

My reply was: Detailed.

 

Not sure what you find unclear about that.

 

And it all depends on one's interpretation of what 'detailed' or 'super-detailed' includes.

 

Brian

 

Fair enough

 

That said it doesn't make much business sense to start a company and go looking for holes in others product ranges in the first instance - as we saw with the Terrier situation there is a very good chance said 'holes' are already on the radar of said other company who will seek to defend their territory.

 

Also, most start ups have entered the market offering locos - not just rolling stock as the profit margins are better and in the first instance generating as much revenue as possible is going to be important to prove to the banks its a viable concern in the longer term.

 

Thats who Rapido in one of their Newsletters commented that they had arrived on the UK scene a bit too late - all the locos they were looking at doing had already been grabbed by others by the time Brexit / banking issues that caused them to pause their involvement in the UK market had been resolved. Even with all the Titfield stuff they have held off from a 14xx tank - and I imagine thats because they know Hattons have a reasonably well detailed offering which could quickly be resurrected as a 'spoiler'

 

 

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3 hours ago, black and decker boy said:

Unless you drive one of the established manufacturers out of the market, you are going to have  a battle to secure market share & therefore a return on your investment. Bear in mind that Hornby has that established 'go to' brand that families know & trust.

 

That assumes a fixed market size. A new entrant surely has to look at ways of growing the market - increasing the appeal of model railways.

 

It seems to me that, with the recent emphasis on high-end "superdetailed" and fragile RTR, there's an opportunity for a range of simple, robust models, dimensionally accurate and capable of being improved by those who wish to do so. I'd pick some 19th-century prototypes, colourful liveries, reasonably sized.

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The premise of the questions seems all wrong to me, for reasons well stated by others.

 

Where I think there might be a tiny niche in the overall market is 7mm/ft NG. Its not as big an interest area as 009, but I reckon it would grow quite quickly if gently fed with suitable r-t-r material, because it is a cracker for small spaces, but brings the advantages of 0 in terms of detail.

 

What stock at that scale? Probably some things that were built in big-ish numbers, and appeared in both industrial and common-carrier service, which doesn't actually create a lot of choices. Maybe a Kerr Stuart "Skylark" 0-4-2T; a WDLR Baldwin 4-6-0T; WDLR bogie rolling stock (including either an Ashover coach, or an RAF/Army coach); a Hudson pre-Rugga skip; MRTC 40hp 'protected' tractor; R&H 28/30hp.

 

Usable as an adjunct to 0 SG, or stand-alone.

 

OK; dream over; wake-up now.

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15 minutes ago, Compound2632 said:

 

That assumes a fixed market size. A new entrant surely has to look at ways of growing the market - increasing the appeal of model railways.

 

It seems to me that, with the recent emphasis on high-end "superdetailed" and fragile RTR, there's an opportunity for a range of simple, robust models, dimensionally accurate and capable of being improved by those who wish to do so. I'd pick some 19th-century prototypes, colourful liveries, reasonably sized.

But grow the market how? There are already loads of budget and mid-spec ranges as well as the super detailed, its not just Hornby in the market. How many more 19th-century prototypes are there to produce as new models? Is there really a deep & ongoing demand? Will this be popular with kids or just the older generation?

 

Growing the market has been happening for a few years - first the rebirth of 2mm models, then the surge in RTR 7mm models, and most recently the introduction of RTR 009 models. But by and large, these were ranges added to existing ones by established manufacturers.

 

Bringing a new mass market manufacturer in to produce low or mid spec models in 4mm seems bound to fail in my opinion unless you own the factory and the bank and can therefore wait along time to see commercial returns on your considerable investment.

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On 21/05/2021 at 12:41, Nearholmer said:

The premise of the questions seems all wrong to me, for reasons well stated by others.

 

Where I think there might be a tiny niche in the overall market is 7mm/ft NG. Its not as big an interest area as 009, but I reckon it would grow quite quickly if gently fed with suitable r-t-r material, because it is a cracker for small spaces, but brings the advantages of 0 in terms of detail.

Indeed, that is a good choice. There is a good kit market for this scale but limited ready to run options. If you were entering this market, it would seem prudent to operate at a scale with limited competition. Hence why I suggested G1. 10 years ago, RTR O gauge at an "economical" price was unheard of. There is no reason why G1 couldnt progress the same way, apart from space constraints of layouts, hence why small sized prototypes would need to be chosen. Your choice of 7mm NG helps immensely with the space problems though.

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4 hours ago, black and decker boy said:

 

 

Unless you drive one of the established manufacturers out of the market, you are going to have  a battle to secure market share & therefore a return on your investment. Bear in mind that Hornby has that established 'go to' brand that families know & trust.

 

 

 

But that is the whole point of this thread. Hornby has an established go-to brand in the world of family railway modelling. And they are flushing that brand down the loo with their current treatment of retailers and the choice to go with high-price (by UK historical standards) super-detailed locos.

 

Nor do families want locos that are difficult to handle but not robust in operation. The quality of motors in these expensive locos is lamentable. For just a couple of quid more, they could be so much better.

 

Steam locos are particularly difficult in this regard. We want valve gear that looks the part but that is, inevitably. fragile. Making a robust diesel or electric is rather easier.

 

I did consider the possibility of another scale, which for me would be TT (1/120) on 12mm gauge track or HO. But this thread is really intended to be about 00 for compatibility with other brands.

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Bachman 0n30 sold pretty well in the U.K., considering that it’s ‘exotic’, and ‘the wrong scale’, so there must be some appetite. The Fleischmann 0e didn’t do quite so well here, or anywhere else come to that, for reasons that I don’t understnd.

 

Anyway 7mm NG already has a fan-base, and a supporters club, and there is a very good magazine in being to serve/stoke the interest in finescale NG (NG&IRM).

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