If you were starting a new rtr manufacturer...

[Joseph_Pestell]

4 hours ago, locomad2 said:

 

 

Think someone already done this, several years ago free with a magazine called something similar for about £5. You got a quite well painted plastic body about 1:76 scale on a motorised chassis on a plastic base. I collected quite a few including 2nd hand for next to nothing ie car boots, charity shop, spent last couple of years quite easily fitting old working chassis underneath. You get quite good working models for next to nothing, quite a few threads on this site

 

Without being fanatical about "full detail", GBL never quite did it for me. It always seemed to look a bit too plastic. Only a few of their products had adequately fine detailing.

 

On this side of the channel, we have had a producer do a superb range of railcars.

[Joseph_Pestell]

7 hours ago, mdvle said:

That seems pretty close to the definition of a vibrant market to me.

 

In your golden era you seem to be thinking of 2 factors gave manufactures the volume:

 

1) hardly any new product to take sales away

 

2) a lot of sales for the "train-set-kids" who played with their trains because there was nothing else back then, and who grew out of the hobby and never return (those kids who return to the hobby are still wanting and getting toy trains as a kid today).

 

 

 

Your paragraph 1 is certainly relevant. Having much fewer new items coming to the market made life much easier for the manufacturers and also for the retailers. Holding a lot of inventory is not good for any business.

 

But modellers wanted more models and had the rising incomes to make it worthwhile for the producers to make them.

[griffgriff]

For what it’s worth.... I’d go budget and (dare I say) design clever.  Locos less than £100. 
 

Replicate a mix of popular choices.
 

However, make sure the models are dimensionally correct and run well. Think Lima 47 body on a Vitrains chassis or Hachette mk1s. That way you will attract a range of punters. Some will be happy as it is but others may bring them up to a their desired standard.

 

 

 

 

 

[phil-b259]

3 hours ago, Joseph_Pestell said:

 

I don't think  that I suggested the whole range should appear immediately. 

 

 

Thats still an ambitious programme when you look at what recent new entries to the hobby have done.

 

3 hours ago, Joseph_Pestell said:

 

Bank managers don't care what you are producing so long as it is profitable. I don't greatly believe in this mantra that super-detailed is more profitable. More expensive, yes, but with a massively increased labour content so greatly increased cost.

 

 

You are misunderstanding this point - its not that super detailed is massively more profitable, its more of the case that is where the growth in the market is.

 

Please pay heed to what I said about social trends earlier - if you are given the choice of investing in a shrinking market or a growing one which would you chose ?  - particularly as a start up where making sure you maximise revenue generation is particularly important. Only once established do then you then have cash to invest in other less profitable areas* and what might be termed speculative moves to see if you can re-invigorate them without threatening you main business.

 

* Unless you are an venture capitalist spending other peoples money and don't really care too much about long term prospects (i.e. rapidly grow the company in an unsustainable way then flog it off before the big problems start).

 

Consider Hornby - the amount of debit is carrying would probably sink many other players in the RTR sector yet Hornbys bankers have been remarkably tolerant and a few years ago agreed to increase their borrowing levels. That was only possible because the bankers believed it stood a fighting chance of recovery - in part because of the way that to the bulk of the population, Hornby IS model railways!

 

3 hours ago, Joseph_Pestell said:

 

One of the things, apart from the current Hornby supply situation, that motivated me to start this thread is the release of a "new" locomotive that has been well-received. Ironically it's a Hornby product, the CC72000 in their "Loisirs" range. "Loisirs" seems to be the sort of level of detail that I labelled as "detailed" in the OP - the middle ground. So far as I can make out, it is the same model as that first produced by Jouef in the early 1990s. Not as good as the more recent Roco version but still very good. It is being sold at much the same price level as it was in the 90s (€150 now, FF1,000 back then).  I do hope that it is a great success and we see others from that era such as the BB26000 "Sybic" which are still running today.

 

Just sit back and look at the companys you mention. Roco is hardly a 'new entrant' to the model railway scene and has an extensive back catalogue of models, dito Jouef / Hornby. With both organisations there is a lot less risk in trying out 'basic' models as a side activity to their main ranges because if they don't sell as well as hoped there are plenty of other detailed models which can keep the cash rolling in.

 

In fact although not branded particularly well, Hornbys recently tooled up Mk1s could be said to be an example of your 'basic' coaching stock range - though IIRC part of the motivation was they could also be used for the 'train set' market.

 

This indicates that a 'basic' new entrant is simply not viable economically - any new entry has to look to cater for the detailed market segment too - and as noted earlier the opportunity to make easy money by doing what might be termed common classes / stock are limited by what is already on the market.

 

 

 

Edited May 22, 2021 by phil-b259

[Hal Nail]

10 hours ago, mdvle said:

That seems pretty close to the definition of a vibrant market to me.

Only if they all survive. It could easily be the definition of over-supply!

 

Your reasons why the budget end doesn't sell are compelling but the trouble is, I suspect the cost of the preferred super detailed stuff makes it uneconomic to produce. 

 

It's pretty obvious from these threads a lot just want more for less with no concept of the economics. Manufacturers are having to try and meet that expectation but whether it is sustainable, as production costs rise faster than disposable income, remains to be seen.

 

On a slightly different note, another thing which would put me off entering the fray is the demographic of modellers: tastes change as people get older. BR blue wasnt as popular 10 or 20 years ago. We already know units are expensive to produce but thats all the last 10 years of kids have travelled on.

Edited May 22, 2021 by Hal Nail

[The Johnster]

If it were me I’d go for a range representing what is currently a hole in RTR provision; the 1840-1870 period.  Marketed in train sets with a backup range of track and add ons very much in the 1950s Triang and Hornby Dublo mode, but with scale dimensions so that they would appeal to ‘serious modellers’, whatever you perceive those to be, who would be able to work them up. 
 

Mid Victorian trains were shorter, which plays in to the ‘main line expresses in a limited space’ issue, looked more like a child’s image of a steam loco, and had colourful and attractive liveries.  Locos would need to be as heavy as possible, and a standard mechanism that could run well slowly needed to deal with scale 8’+ singles. 
 

Perhaps GW broad gauge?

[Joseph_Pestell]

4 hours ago, griffgriff said:

For what it’s worth.... I’d go budget and (dare I say) design clever.  Locos less than £100. 
 

Replicate a mix of popular choices.
 

However, make sure the models are dimensionally correct and run well. Think Lima 47 body on a Vitrains chassis or Hachette mk1s. That way you will attract a range of punters. Some will be happy as it is but others may bring them up to a their desired standard.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Brave man. I did not dare mention "design clever",

 

It was actually a rather good idea from Hornby but executed with their characteristic inconsistency.

 

Same with the Railroad range. Some quite decent models there rubbing shoulders with stuff from the 1960s.

[Joseph_Pestell]

4 hours ago, phil-b259 said:

 

Thats still an ambitious programme when you look at what recent new entries to the hobby have done.

 

 

You are misunderstanding this point - its not that super detailed is massively more profitable, its more of the case that is where the growth in the market is.

 

Please pay heed to what I said about social trends earlier - if you are given the choice of investing in a shrinking market or a growing one which would you chose ?  - particularly as a start up where making sure you maximise revenue generation is particularly important. Only once established do then you then have cash to invest in other less profitable areas* and what might be termed speculative moves to see if you can re-invigorate them without threatening you main business.

 

* Unless you are an venture capitalist spending other peoples money and don't really care too much about long term prospects (i.e. rapidly grow the company in an unsustainable way then flog it off before the big problems start).

 

Consider Hornby - the amount of debit is carrying would probably sink many other players in the RTR sector yet Hornbys bankers have been remarkably tolerant and a few years ago agreed to increase their borrowing levels. That was only possible because the bankers believed it stood a fighting chance of recovery - in part because of the way that to the bulk of the population, Hornby IS model railways!

 

 

Just sit back and look at the companys you mention. Roco is hardly a 'new entrant' to the model railway scene and has an extensive back catalogue of models, dito Jouef / Hornby. With both organisations there is a lot less risk in trying out 'basic' models as a side activity to their main ranges because if they don't sell as well as hoped there are plenty of other detailed models which can keep the cash rolling in.

 

In fact although not branded particularly well, Hornbys recently tooled up Mk1s could be said to be an example of your 'basic' coaching stock range - though IIRC part of the motivation was they could also be used for the 'train set' market.

 

This indicates that a 'basic' new entrant is simply not viable economically - any new entry has to look to cater for the detailed market segment too - and as noted earlier the opportunity to make easy money by doing what might be termed common classes / stock are limited by what is already on the market.

 

 

 

 

Recent entrants in the commissioning/manufacturing market (UK and Europe) have indeed been slow start-ups. That is because they had very limited finances to start with. All very sensible and I admire all of them for the success that they are achieving.

 

But if you were to start with millions, that would be quite another matter.

 

"Consider Hornby" (see my next post). You bet I am! You are totally right that the bankers lent on the value of the brand. If you were that banker, would you be happy to see Hornby shafting its retailers and destroying the value of the brand? 

 

Is the market really that keen on super-detailed? Or is that all they are being offered? We certainly see plenty of complaints here about basic faults on super-detailed models such as bent running plates.

 

I think that your mention of the recent Hornby Mk1 is very apposite. It's a good "layout coach" - enough detail but  still robust. I bought quite a few of them last year. Just lacking the close-coupling which is a shame at that price and leads me to favour Bachmann. And why don't Hornby make it more interesting at minimal cost by putting all 3 types of bogies on them? 

[Joseph_Pestell]

OK. Let's try and summarise some of the posts above and give a reply.

 

Various people have suggested various other scale/gauge combinations.

 

Going for something completely new is tempting but rather more difficult to launch into the market. You are only going to get new clients not existing modellers who already have too many skins in their current scale.

 

Something like Oe is also not a starter, I think. Yes, one would have 100% of that market but that would be far less turnover than even 5% of the 00 market.

 

Others seem to think that I am intending to this myself. I don't have the money and I am getting too old to start up a significant new business. Hence my retirement to my 50m2 layout room as soon as it is ready (July hopefully).

 

Others think that this new manufacturer would be up against Hornby. If you go back to the OP, and read through the lines a bit, you would see that this thread is about a post-Hornby PLC world. I just can't see them surviving much longer unless they make some profound policy changes and they don't seem to have the will (or ability?) to do that. The administration and possible liquidation could play out in various ways. The key variable is what happens to all the tooling out in China.

 

My idea is that a group of UK retailers, who have been badly treated by Hornby, get together and set up jointly a commissioning business. On another thread, somebody likened this to herding cats. I see his point but it is nothing that a properly structured independent company should not be able to cope with.

 

Checking out the finances of various retailers, it is quite clear that launching a range such as I have described is fully within the financial capacity of just a few key retailers. It could probably even be done by just one retailer. 

 

Final point. There has been a deafening silence from retailers over the last few days since this fiasco of the tier system and diminished orders became known about. It may well be that some big moves are already underway.

[spackz]

Might just be me, but what we're missing Is a company similar to Walthers making plastic building kits in OO gauge of traditional British architecture, were you can kit bash into large structures. Wood seems to thick and card doednt have the texutre. I'd probably start out in that then move into locos if/when I'd made enough 

Capital.

 

Edited May 22, 2021 by spackz

[phil-b259]

1 hour ago, Joseph_Pestell said:

 

But if you were to start with millions, that would be quite another matter.

 

 

And where exactly would those millions come from?

 

Model Railways is hardly noted as the vehicle of choice for venture capitalists - which means having to convince an ordinary bank to provide you with a big enough loan to get going. Again this is a very practical reason why new entrants start small and seek out the areas which provide the best chance of financial return.

 

Yes you could, as a theoretical exercise imagine a mystery millionaire decided they would bankroll a new entrant, but unless they are on a mission to lose lots of cash they will be constrained by the nature of the RTR market. If you go further still and say the amount of money available to sink into the new venture is unlimited - then all you are asking for is people to crate their own personal wish lists of models and descends into fantasy land.

 

1 hour ago, Joseph_Pestell said:

 

"Consider Hornby" (see my next post). You bet I am! You are totally right that the bankers lent on the value of the brand. If you were that banker, would you be happy to see Hornby shafting its retailers and destroying the value of the brand? 

? 

 

But just how much do bankers know about the model railway market? Yes there is a certain amount of due diligence that must be carried out, but just mortgage lenders don't do a full survey before lending you money to buy a property, so it is that bankers won't necessarily be delving into the specifics of the model railway market. What they will be looking at is sales figures, profit and loss accounts plus the various strategies the company board put in place before lending money. Hornby (unlike a potential start up) have a back history and a well known brand name which will all help - in contrast to a start up which due to its 'unknown quantity ' status will have a much harder time proving itself worthy of the cash.

 

54 minutes ago, Joseph_Pestell said:

 

Others think that this new manufacturer would be up against Hornby. If you go back to the OP, and read through the lines a bit, you would see that this thread is about a post-Hornby PLC world. I just can't see them surviving much longer unless they make some profound policy changes and they don't seem to have the will (or ability?) to do that. The administration and possible liquidation could play out in various ways. The key variable is what happens to all the tooling out in China.

 

 

 

Hornby will survive . OK it may not be the same company, but the brand itself is worth a lot of money - as will be the tooling and intellectual property (i.e. designs) it has built up over the years. IF the current incarnation of the company folded, then as with Debenhams then I'm sure there would be people interested in buying up its asset and trading under the Hornby brand.

 

54 minutes ago, Joseph_Pestell said:

 

Final point. There has been a deafening silence from retailers over the last few days since this fiasco of the tier system and diminished orders became known about. It may well be that some big moves are already underway.

 

Or maybe retailers are being sensible and not biting the hand that feeds them.

 

Hornby is under no obligation to supply model shops - it could easily cut them out of the equation altogether and become an Internet only retailer keeping more of the profit from each sale in the process. In fact if Hornby did go under then as with many other bankruptcies / insolvencies in the retail sector such a business model is the most likely outcome. Thus model shops throwing a big hissy fit over Hornby not supplying what has been ordered could actually be counter productive in the long run. 

 

 

Edited May 22, 2021 by phil-b259

[Joseph_Pestell]

I think that you must still have been writing that before I posted my last one (two above) which answers your question.

[Joseph_Pestell]

5 minutes ago, phil-b259 said:

 

Hornby will survive . OK it may not be the same company, but the brand itself is worth a lot of money - as will be the tooling and intellectual property (i.e. designs) it has built up over the years. IF the current incarnation of the company folded, then as with Debenhams then I'm sure there would be people interested in buying up its asset and trading under the Hornby brand.

 

 

Or maybe retailers are being sensible and not biting the hand that feeds them.

 

 

Hornby should survive as a brand. But it might not if the Chinese factories were "difficult" about the tooling. Would it be worth the extra expense of buying just the brand and having the cost of new tooling on top of that? I hope that if the PLC does go into administration, they get a competent administrator who will really work to get the best outcome. There are not many of them about. Most only care about their fees being covered. 

 

So far as I know, the Debenham's revival has not lasted the course.

 

The retailers may or may not bite the hand. But the hand is not feeding them anyway.

 

Stationmaster's contribution on the pre-orders thread is very interesting. Quoting various official Hornby documents, he notes how often Hornby state that they want "a level playing field". What they are doing now is the polar opposite of that.

[90rob]

I honestly think it is a non starter - but if anyone was to go in for it then I think a couple of basic complete train sets - one diesel and one steam - might be the way to go - and both in TT!  It would be interesting to see how the Dragons Den crew would tear the idea apart...

[dunnyrail]

Proper TT Gauge using continental scale on 12mm Track. This would give much better scale track gauge relationship. Peco do suitable track but a smaller radius set rack be required and commissioned from Peco. Say 18” radius. Locomotives would be DCC Sound fitted with stay alive, quite possible and Kato would be my choice of manufacturer. 

 

1st hit for a Train Set would be a Terrier with typical Hayling Island Stock. A few wagons all BR initially. 
 

Range would be expanded by perhaps a nodding donkey DMU and a 150.

 

Next up would be a West Country, BR Standard 2-6-4 then Class 4 4-6-0.

 

From there on in I would be asking buyers for suggestiins.

[mdvle]

2 hours ago, Joseph_Pestell said:

I think that your mention of the recent Hornby Mk1 is very apposite. It's a good "layout coach" - enough detail but  still robust. I bought quite a few of them last year. Just lacking the close-coupling which is a shame at that price and leads me to favour Bachmann. And why don't Hornby make it more interesting at minimal cost by putting all 3 types of bogies on them? 

 

To paraphrase - I like the Hornby coach, but making cheap means it isn't good enough because it doesn't have accurate bogies and doesn't have x and y and z so I went with the more expensive Bachmann...

 

2 hours ago, Joseph_Pestell said:

Others think that this new manufacturer would be up against Hornby. If you go back to the OP, and read through the lines a bit, you would see that this thread is about a post-Hornby PLC world. I just can't see them surviving much longer unless they make some profound policy changes and they don't seem to have the will (or ability?) to do that. The administration and possible liquidation could play out in various ways. The key variable is what happens to all the tooling out in China.

 

Over in the US, one of the 2 big O scale companies - MTH - recently announced they were shutting down due to the retirement of the owner.

 

Over time pieces of the business (aka tooling in China) have been sold - HO and S to ScaleTrains, part of the O line to Atlas.

 

MTH will effectively cease to exist later this year, but most of their product lives on.

 

Similarly, True Line Trains ceased as an effective business years ago and in the last 12 months their tooling has been purchased by Atlas, so their products will live on.

 

The same will happen if Hornby goes under - the tooling will be sold to someone and the products live on.  And someone will buy the rights to the name.

 

Starting up a new business to replace Hornby is a fools game given when the time comes someone will be able to buy the existing tooling at a fraction of the cost of tooling from new.

 

2 hours ago, Joseph_Pestell said:

Final point. There has been a deafening silence from retailers over the last few days since this fiasco of the tier system and diminished orders became known about. It may well be that some big moves are already underway.

 

The world changes, those who change with it have a chance at surviving - those who want to recreate the past throw a lot of money away.

 

The hobby will evolve, how stuff gets sold will evolve, we are unlikely to return to the days of the single man shops scattered all over the country.

[mdvle]

10 hours ago, Joseph_Pestell said:

Bank managers don't care what you are producing so long as it is profitable.

 

Starting a new train company under your scenario (15 locos / 10 coaches) would be very expensive.  ScaleTrains has publicly indicated that the tooling for a new loco is $200k, around $100k for a passenger coach, and $60k and up for a goods wagon.  So 15x200 + 3x100 (to allow for 3 different lines of coach) means you are over $3m in startup costs just for the tooling - say double that for research, CAD, production, advertising, interest costs paid prior to getting a single payment and you need to go to the bank for $6m.

 

Sorry, but the bank manager may well be polite as he says sorry and escorts you out the door and then goes to lunch with his coworkers and they all have a good laugh at the client he met with that morning.

 

10 hours ago, Joseph_Pestell said:

I don't greatly believe in this mantra that super-detailed is more profitable. More expensive, yes, but with a massively increased labour content so greatly increased cost.

 

Nobody has claimed that it is more profitable - rather that is is profitable.

 

There is a reason why the more basic and affordable models are generally older tooling - because you effectively can't cover the tooling and development costs on a basic item given the low potential sales.

 

So - super-detailed makes a profit, new tool basic model loses money.

 

10 hours ago, Joseph_Pestell said:

One of the things, apart from the current Hornby supply situation, that motivated me to start this thread is the release of a "new" locomotive that has been well-received. Ironically it's a Hornby product, the CC72000 in their "Loisirs" range. "Loisirs" seems to be the sort of level of detail that I labelled as "detailed" in the OP - the middle ground. So far as I can make out, it is the same model as that first produced by Jouef in the early 1990s. Not as good as the more recent Roco version but still very good. It is being sold at much the same price level as it was in the 90s (€150 now, FF1,000 back then).  I do hope that it is a great success and we see others from that era such as the BB26000 "Sybic" which are still running today.

 

But you are contradicting yourself with your "new" - you effectively are admitting that the only way this "railroad" item for the EU market exists is because Hornby already has the tooling.

 

Hornby would not, nor would anyone else, tool up that CC72000 today and sell it for that price.

[black and decker boy]

So thinking about supply & demand and market pricing.

 

super detail is higher cost and higher sale price. Assuming margin % is the same then to make the same margin on a budget model of 1/3rd price then I need to sell vastly more volume.

 

So, can a new entrant create a big enough new market, quickly and with longevity to secure enough volume to make worthwhile margin to recoup initial investment

 

We have had several new entrants in the past decade. None have gone for mass market, high volume or large range but have instead grown their offering slowly. No new entrant has yet got to multiple 00 loco models delivered except DJM. We have the 143/144 and 156 units from Realtrack but so far it’s all small scale and slow growth.

 

If there was a mass market, of volume, for a budget range, someone would be filling it. The fact it’s left to Hornby and a lesser degree, Bachmann, tells me no one sees a gap.

 

Furthermore, if there was a gap, the prices would be set by what the market could bear. With high second hand prices, high cost of super detail new models, I’d say any new entrant would be price matching Railroad not undercutting it.

 

As for your suggestion / promotion of a plan for a group of angry retailer clubbing together to buy assets of a now deceased Hornby and entering the market seem both insulting and naive. DJM assets have ended up with a few new owners but many of the products are coming to market through EFE Bachmann. What makes you think that none of the existing manufacturers wouldn’t be cherry picking the best of the Hornby assets and maintaining both batch size and RRP. 
 

You talk about the good of the hobby. I’d say that the loss of Hornby as a company would be very bad for the hobby. It is a brand that transcends the hobby into wider society, something none of the others can do.

Edited May 22, 2021 by black and decker boy
Forgot a few new locos from new entrants

[phil-b259]

4 hours ago, Joseph_Pestell said:

 

So far as I know, the Debenham's revival has not lasted the course.

 

The point is the Debenhams BRAND is what’s valuable. Hence it was bought by BooHoo and is now an Internet ONLY operation.

 

It is of course early days and it may not ultimately be successful - but it is a lesson in how the world of retail is moving these days.

 

I could easily see the same happening to Hornby if the bankers pull the plug 

 

4 hours ago, Joseph_Pestell said:

Hornby should survive as a brand. But it might not if the Chinese factories were "difficult" about the tooling. Would it be worth the extra expense of buying just the brand and having the cost of new tooling on top of that? I hope that if the PLC does go into administration, they get a competent administrator who will really work to get the best outcome.

 

Best outcome for who am exactly?

 

Its pretty obvious that the only reason companies go into administration is they carn’t pay their debts and creditors want their money ASAP, not vague promises that things might get better in a few years time.

 

Therefore as far as administration goes there are only two legal strategies which any administrator can go down. (1) Slim down the operation (I.e. chop off loss making divisions, extend loans / overdrafts and leases) in the hope of attracting a knight in shining armour to buy the whole business or (2) Shut it down and flog off the assets to the highest bidder to pay off the debits.

Edited May 22, 2021 by phil-b259

[Hal Nail]

1 hour ago, black and decker boy said:

Assuming margin % is the same 

I suspect the margin they can get away with on more detailed is lower. The tooling will be similar and the added details very expensive to make and people wont pay much margin on top of that.

Edited May 22, 2021 by Hal Nail

[black and decker boy]

24 minutes ago, Hal Nail said:

I suspect the margin they can get away with on more detailed is lower. The tooling will be similar and the added details very expensive to make and people wont pay much margin on top of that.

I’d say the exact opposite. Margin comes from added value.

 

the basic loco cost of production isn’t going to be much different. Adding parts / extra paint & printing adds some cost but the value it adds to the consumer is far larger. 

 

look at supermarkets. They sell bags of pre-prepared vegetables for significantly more than a whole one. Why? Added value. They make way more from a bag of broccoli pieces than they do a single head.

[johnofwessex]

I'd be looking at a 5/7.25 inch NG ride on 

 

Either that or some decent ready to sail model boats - not speedboats!

[JohnR]

On 21/05/2021 at 13:09, Joseph_Pestell said:

I did consider the possibility of another scale, which for me would be TT (1/120) on 12mm gauge track or HO. But this thread is really intended to be about 00 for compatibility with other brands.

 

I think you should reconsider that. I think the gap in the market is TT, with, as you suggest a less detailed but dimensionally accurate range. 

 

Houses in the UK are now in average smaller than ever, and while N gauge would seem to be growing in popularity, the cost - due to the level of detail now offered- is still high.

 

If the business case is on expanding the model railway market, then this would make sense. Small enough to appeal to those with limited space, accurate in appearance without being over detailed (and hence expensive). I'd also suggest that creating a control system via phone app (similar to, but maybe not as sophisticated as the Hornby HM6000) would be attractive.

[mdvle]

1 hour ago, JohnR said:

I think you should reconsider that. I think the gap in the market is TT, with, as you suggest a less detailed but dimensionally accurate range. 

 

Houses in the UK are now in average smaller than ever, and while N gauge would seem to be growing in popularity, the cost - due to the level of detail now offered- is still high.

 

The level of detail is only part of the issue - the small size of the N market means it is tougher to cover tooling costs.  ScaleTrains guessed tooling a N loco was about 80% of the cost of tooling HO, yet the N market isn't 80% of HO or OO.  That means each unit sold needs to cover a higher percentage of the development costs than an equivalent OO product.

 

This same issue would face this hypothetical entry into TT - smaller sales volume means higher cost per unit to cover tooling.  Don't offer detailed models and then you don't have an attractive enough product to convince OO (or N) modellers to switch scales - or to convince someone to choose TT over OO/N.

 

The possible route for TT (as discussed in the Rapido area a month or so ago) would be to go with accurate European TT instead of British TT - but the existing British TT base are (understandably) against the idea - but if TT were to thrive it needs something to convince people to use it like the track matching the models.

 

1 hour ago, JohnR said:

I'd also suggest that creating a control system via phone app (similar to, but maybe not as sophisticated as the Hornby HM6000) would be attractive.

 

No need to create - there already is a Bluetooth based control system that one could simply by the appropriate hardware for.

[mdvle]

8 hours ago, Joseph_Pestell said:

Various people have suggested various other scale/gauge combinations.

 

Going for something completely new is tempting but rather more difficult to launch into the market. You are only going to get new clients not existing modellers who already have too many skins in their current scale.

 

I think the dismissal of a different scale on the basis of modellers being heavily invested in OO already is overstated.

 

Many of us quite happily buy multiple scales already, or buy stuff that doesn't fit our layout because "I like it", or by UK stuff as well as European or North American.

 

A new scale would benefit from that flexibility if it was attractive enough - just as Heljan did with O 10+ years ago.

 

That said, a new scale entry into the UK market would be tough given the O/OO/N cover the sizes quite well.

 

In this hypothetical case where someone has the millions to risk, I would say forget the UK market and look to North America.  In the "accurate modelling" area there is only HO and N - the larger scales are all "toy" based with Lionel/MTH 3-rail in O and American Flyer in S.  Thus there is an opening over there for someone to try and create an accurate larger scale to complement the HO/N offerings - to which S would likely be best given American Flyer is slowly dying anyway while Lionel and MTH/Atlas remain strong in O.

 

(of course, an alternative might be to try and re-invigorate the UK N market that has suffered from Bachmann concentrating on OO with all of the OO competition).