The return of exhibitions - a further poll

[corneliuslundie]

Just a quick comment on ventilation. The Chartered Institution of Building Services Engineers has been updating its advice on ventilation systems regularly. It can be downloaded from the CIBSE website. But essentially, it is strongly stating that air recirculation should not be used, and that the filters do ;litle4 to trap the Covid virus. There has been a lot of discussion of the use of UV to kill Covid but there are major safety issues and it cannot be used in spaces which are accessible to people. Ventilation essentially then means fresh air.

Jonathan

[Keith Addenbrooke]

Thank you to @AY Mod for rerunning this survey - a good time to do it for all concerned.  Having a look at the responses at the moment (523 when I just checked),  there are some things that stand out to me:

 

1:  79% of people would plan to travel to an event by private car.  I don’t know how that compares to pre-Covid, but it suggests that good (and possibly increased) car parking is going to be very important for any event to work, and it was already a real headache for some venues / organisers.

 

2:  2/3rds of respondents to date are doing less than normal, or exercising some caution as to what they do (40% + 26.4%).  This suggests a significant number will think carefully before deciding whether to attend an event - however it is done.  
 

From the conversations I’ve had in my professional capacity during the pandemic with people who feel cautious / concerned, the biggest single determinant on how confident / comfortable they felt was how those around them were behaving.  This is one of the big challenges we have as a society - before Covid, how I felt about going to the supermarket was based more on the length of my shopping list and the bargains I did (or didn’t get).  It’s now based on how quiet or busy a store is and how well I think people who I don’t know are social distancing / wearing their masks / waiting their turn.

 

For anyone organising an event / show, this is a big shift in emphasis I think will be around for a good time to come.

 

3.  The biggest surprise for me however, is that the second least favoured form of restriction is having to produce evidence of a negative test to attend an event (only time limitations were less often chosen).  As I understand it, the successful ‘test events’ run locally in Liverpool however relied on exactly that: when bringing together a larger group of people, make sure they don’t bring Covid with them - it is the best way of allowing people to mix with the lowest risk.

 

I don’t know if the measure is less popular because of the administrative challenge, or a dislike of getting tested, but it’s one thing I’d be happy to do (it’s become part of the routine anyway).

 

No doubt there will be a variety of views on this, but it did strike me as surprising.

 

4.  I’m not surprised people favour smaller, regional or local events at the moment - that fits with everything I’m reading and hearing, at several levels.

 

Keith.

[RJS1977]

6 minutes ago, Keith Addenbrooke said:

 

 

3.  The biggest surprise for me however, is that the second least favoured form of restriction is having to produce evidence of a negative test to attend an event (only time limitations were less often chosen).  As I understand it, the successful ‘test events’ run locally in Liverpool however relied on exactly that: when bringing together a larger group of people, make sure they don’t bring Covid with them - it is the best way of allowing people to mix with the lowest risk.

 

 

 

No doubt there will be a variety of views on this, but it did strike me as surprising.

 

4

 

Keith.

 

It surprised me too - I'd much rather have a little bit of inconvenience on entry than have to wear something that could potentially limit the amount of time I can spend in the venue.

[RJS1977]

1 hour ago, wombatofludham said:

Interesting survey and comments.  I'm currently under de-facto isolation, not through any fear of catching CV19 - not only am I double jabbed, but I'm reasonably phlegmatic about these things - but because I have developed a deep seated psychological/psychiatric issue with masks.  Ironically, I am able to wear an industrial face mask for about half an hour, which because it is shaped to fit rather than stretch across the face, I can cope with and which, according to what I have read, actually does offer me some protection, unlike cloth "face nappies" which barely stop an infected person from spreading their germs, especially the way most people don't wash them or wear them properly.  It's being in a non-medical situation surrounded by people in masks that puts me into "fight or flight" mode that's the issue.  I can't even look at the person behind the counter of the petrol station without getting anxious, so supermarkets are out, or anything where I am likely to encounter a lot of masked people.  God only knows where this has come from, but a mask exemption sunflower lanyard is no help to me, which was the only thing the medics could suggest.

I suspect moving forward people are going to increasingly wear masks, when out and about, in a similar fashion to the way a lot of people wear masks in places like Japan and China, even if compulsory mask wearing is abolished at some point.  As access to psychiatric/psychological help at the moment is woeful, I've come to the conclusion that in the medium term any non-essential contact with the outside world won't be happening for me.  I realise I am very much an outlier, and my particular issue can't be accommodated, but I do wonder if I am that unique, or whether others have similar difficulties.  Whilst mask wearers, their issues, exemption displays, and the morons like Laurence Fox who pretend to be exempt from mask wearing to just make a pathetic point, are all well documented, my house arrest is for a completely different reason that longer term may become seriously debilitating.

 

Not far removed from my own situation. About this time last summer as things were starting to open up, I made a mental note of places I felt I could:

a) Travel to on a relatively empty bus or train, and 

b) Be pretty sure that I could social distance if necessary once there (or were outside).

 

Unfortunately when public transport and attractions etc opened, mask rules were tightened up and many of these venues were further away than I felt comfortable travelling to wearing a mask. Consequently, I've been to Didcot, Wallingford, Twyford (model shop visit) and Windsor Great Park and that's about it (apart from a couple of trips to Tilehurst for jabs, and a walk along the K&A towpath) . Even on one of my trips to Wallingford last year I ended up getting off the bus early on the way back and walking the last mile and a half or so as the humidity inside the mask had got so oppressive.

 

However I have found those short journeys have been a great release mentally - it was galling at one point last year to see people getting into their cars and going places when I wasn't allowed  to go further from home than walking distance. So I can certainly sympathise with your situation.

 

 

[GoingUnderground]

I don't know about anyone else, but as I get older I find that I'm becoming more risk averse. As the years have gone by I'm increasingly aware that my time left on this planet is decreasing, especially after attending the funeral (not Covid related) of a lifelong friend from my schooldays. I don't want to go yet, I've still got too much modelling and living to do. So I'm not going to do something which, given my age, could be a life limiting action, such as go to a show or rock gig or restaurant or theatre only to end up catching Covid. Call this cowardice if you like, but I have no control over what folks do around me, and I don't trust everyone to do the right thing.

 

Younger folks are more likely to be prepared to take risks, as I used to when younger, as their chances of surviving Covid are statistically greater, and their chances of having severe illness are significantly less than folks in my age group and older.

[Les1952]

1 hour ago, Keith Addenbrooke said:

 

 

3.  The biggest surprise for me however, is that the second least favoured form of restriction is having to produce evidence of a negative test to attend an event (only time limitations were less often chosen).  As I understand it, the successful ‘test events’ run locally in Liverpool however relied on exactly that: when bringing together a larger group of people, make sure they don’t bring Covid with them - it is the best way of allowing people to mix with the lowest risk.

 

 

Keith.

 

We considered it but after consultation came to the conclusion it was impractical for two reasons, especially if Boris lifts any legal requirement for it.

 

1.  we have nowhere to do this other than on the pavement and small lawn outside the building - we could reasonably be asked to supply tests for anyone who didn't have a recent result to hand, making a logistical issue we might have difficulty in coping with.  

 

2.  it increased the likelihood of bad feelings and possible assault on our door people, who are already going to be pressured with fancy stuff like contactless payment, which none of us have any field experience in taking - especially if the Government say it isn't required....

 

We could of course employ security staff for crowd control, but that would come at a cost outside our means.

 

We are a small show and not likely to approach the crowd density of our local Asda.  We will however be counting folks in and out and if necessary calling a pause if it looks like we have more than 150 punters in at one time (reasonable if our biggest ever attendance has been under 800 over 2 days).

 

Of course if Boris puts this on as a legal requirement we will just have to think of a way of making it work.

 

Les

[Pete the Elaner]

1 hour ago, Keith Addenbrooke said:

 

3.  The biggest surprise for me however, is that the second least favoured form of restriction is having to produce evidence of a negative test to attend an event (only time limitations were less often chosen).  As I understand it, the successful ‘test events’ run locally in Liverpool however relied on exactly that: when bringing together a larger group of people, make sure they don’t bring Covid with them - it is the best way of allowing people to mix with the lowest risk.

 

I don’t know if the measure is less popular because of the administrative challenge, or a dislike of getting tested, but it’s one thing I’d be happy to do (it’s become part of the routine anyway).

 

No doubt there will be a variety of views on this, but it did strike me as surprising.

 

 

I do not really view this as a restriction. A test may be unpleasant but no more then trying new food & finding out you don't like it. (I would rather take 10 tests than be forced to eat a spoonful of thousand island dressing!).

A test first thing in the morning takes 5 minutes before shower & breakfast. By that time you can see if you're positive & if you are, don't go out. It really is that simple & I did it before visiting the garden railway show last week.

If you are on a layout or stand, then call in sick. Nobody will complain if you tell them why.

I understand that home tests are not 100% reliable but if we all followed this routine, it would help massively to control the infection rate.

 

My local club intends to have a 'test before attending' policy but we are relying on honesty. I know I will test myself before going, but will others?

[Keith Addenbrooke]

If I might add two further thoughts (I’ll make two posts as they’re quite different):

 

The survey asks for our views on different risk-reduction measures that we’d be willing to support.  This gives a helpful picture for analysis and planning (and discussion).  I don’t think it would be feasible to develop the questions in such a way as to show which combinations of measures people would support (short of analysing each response), but one of the most helpful pieces I’ve read explained that it is just that - a combination of measures - that is ultimately most effective.

 

The analogy that was used was to imagine a Swiss cheese cut into slices.  Each slice has some holes in it (no measure is 100% effective), but put the whole cheese back together and very little can get through the whole block.

 

Personally I found that to be a very helpful picture.

Part of the challenge now however, and the survey and thread are showing this, is the variety of views in play.  It makes the job of organising an event / show much more difficult:

 

8 hours ago, Les1952 said:

2.  it increased the likelihood of bad feelings and possible assault on our door people, who are already going to be pressured with fancy stuff like contactless payment, which none of us have any field experience in taking - especially if the Government say it isn't required....

This is a very good point.  How we each feel about / respond to voluntary vs statutory requirements makes a big difference.

 

Overlay this with the fact that there are two dimensions to the risk assessment we each make (and to which we apply a different personal weighting) and the social challenge for organisers becomes more complicated still:

 

Risk 1: the personal risk to myself of catching a potentially deadly disease, or even one with potentially serious long-term effects.

 

Risk 2: the social risk to others that I might unknowingly pick up or be carrying and passing on that deadly disease to those around me, either at a show or afterwards, noting also that each act of transmission increases the possibility a virus can mutate (it’s what they do).

 

Reading through the thread this morning, I see these two risk factors expressed in different ways in many of the comments, but I thought I’d mention the ‘combination’ analysis as I’d not seen that earlier as a point in its own right (apologies if I missed it).  Keith.

Edited July 3, 2021 by Keith Addenbrooke

[Keith Addenbrooke]

My second point may seem less directly related to the survey itself, but will influence my decision about when to attend any show that is running:

 

Prior to the pandemic I’d really enjoyed my hobby at an individual level - subscribing to BRM and attending a few shows as a consumer was really the limit of my wider engagement, and joining RMweb in Nov 2018 was the only collective thing I’d done.

 

However, I’ve really appreciated the social side of the hobby (mainly through RMweb) during the past year plus, and yesterday joined the first Society I’ve belonged to.  I’m now therefore in the position of being more likely to want to go to a show and meet in person some of the people I’ve corresponded with, and see their layouts live.

 

This survey is about when that might be - but the point is I’m more interested in / invested in the outcome than I was before.  Keith.

Edited July 3, 2021 by Keith Addenbrooke

[john new]

10 hours ago, Keith Addenbrooke said:

Thank you to @AY Mod for rerunning this survey - a good time to do it for all concerned.  Having a look at the responses at the moment (523 when I just checked),  there are some things that stand out to me:

 

1:  79% of people would plan to travel to an event by private car.  I don’t know how that compares to pre-Covid, but it suggests that good (and possibly increased) car parking is going to be very important for any event to work, and it was already a real headache for some venues / organisers.

 

2:  2/3rds of respondents to date are doing less than normal, or exercising some caution as to what they do (40% + 26.4%).  This suggests a significant number will think carefully before deciding whether to attend an event - however it is done.  
 

From the conversations I’ve had in my professional capacity during the pandemic with people who feel cautious / concerned, the biggest single determinant on how confident / comfortable they felt was how those around them were behaving.  This is one of the big challenges we have as a society - before Covid, how I felt about going to the supermarket was based more on the length of my shopping list and the bargains I did (or didn’t get).  It’s now based on how quiet or busy a store is and how well I think people who I don’t know are social distancing / wearing their masks / waiting their turn.

 

For anyone organising an event / show, this is a big shift in emphasis I think will be around for a good time to come.

 

3.  The biggest surprise for me however, is that the second least favoured form of restriction is having to produce evidence of a negative test to attend an event (only time limitations were less often chosen).  As I understand it, the successful ‘test events’ run locally in Liverpool however relied on exactly that: when bringing together a larger group of people, make sure they don’t bring Covid with them - it is the best way of allowing people to mix with the lowest risk.

 

I don’t know if the measure is less popular because of the administrative challenge, or a dislike of getting tested, but it’s one thing I’d be happy to do (it’s become part of the routine anyway).

 

No doubt there will be a variety of views on this, but it did strike me as surprising.

 

4.  I’m not surprised people favour smaller, regional or local events at the moment - that fits with everything I’m reading and hearing, at several levels.

 

Keith.

 

Fully concur, your No. 2 is exactly how I feel about this. As examples my wife and I have reduced the number of times we supermarket shop (more now bought less frequently) and significantly cut down on our cafe (indoor)/ restaurant and pub visits. Rarely use the bus despite my pass, used to use it regularly, and several club things we both used to attend are now virtual events only. We have also abandoned many day trips we would have done, for example Corfe Castle and the Swanage Railway today to see British India Line/ride the train and visit then castle. Reason masks needed on the train (uncomfortable on a hot day) and all the popular photoing spots will probably be crowded.

[Michael Hodgson]

I haven't been on a train, preserved or otherwise since before covid.  My senior railcard has expired and I haven't renewed it (just a small bit of revenue the railways have lost).  As for buses, I do have a bus pass, but I can't remember when I last used it - I didn't use buses much anyway.

 

I'm not so worried about catching the bug myself - something will get me sometime, and 70 wouldn't be a bad innings anyway.  Since the start of all this, I've been diagnosed with kidney cancer and had a kidney removed (full marks to the NHS for efficiency at the height of the pandemic).  Then I had a suspected skin cancer (which turned out to be a harmless condition), so I've not going to worry about whether what finishes me off is covid or being knocked down by the proverbial bus. 

 

But this afternoon I'm going to visit somebody who has had a liver transplant, has a respiratory condition that means she needs to use an oxygen mask after the least exertion and who despite having had both jabs no longer has covid antibodies.  This is because anti-rejection drugs taken by transplant patients work by attacking the immune system.  Her only trips out are to the doctor's or the hospital.  How could I visit her if I thought I might be putting her at risk as a carrier of something I might potentially pick up at a crowded show?  Frau Merkel is unhappy about the crowding at football matches - and I don't think model railway shows will be much better.

[Gwiwer]

11 hours ago, Pete the Elaner said:

A test may be unpleasant but no more then trying new food & finding out you don't like it.

I find swabbing the back of the throat and mining the upper regions of the Wheal Proboscis extremely unpleasant, irritating and usually gag- and sneeze-producing.  I have tried "new" foods and liked some but not most.  Personally I would rather try another new food than take covid tests but needs must for now and at least the tests are free.  Other opinions are of course available.  

[KCL]

It would be interesting to see the data for question "Which statement best describes your current activities?" broken down by age group. 

[Free At Last]

11 hours ago, Pete the Elaner said:

 

A test may be unpleasant.

After having had a camera up my nose and feeling it was still there over a week later I have put a ban on anything entering my nasal passage.

[woodenhead]

17 hours ago, Les1952 said:

 

If Woodenhead thinks our one-way system is an object of mirth then that is his prerogative.  It was a serious attempt to show that a one-way system isn't necessarily a National Trust "in one end and troop through until  you reach the gift shop".  

 

 

Actually, you will note I did mark your post as informational, I just also saw Immingham Docks in the flow - it's ok to have a sense of humour about our current situation, I wasn't mocking the thought you put into a one way system.

[MarcD]

Wearing 3 hats: visitor; exhibitor and trader I have mixed feelings about when shows should start up again. I should also say that I'm in my late 40's and I have an autoimmune disorder. And I have had both jabs. So my personal risk level has moved from highish to lowish.

The trader hat is asking: will I be safe? Will enough people come to the show and if they do will they part with enough money to make it worth while paying for a stand.?

The exhibitor hat is asking: Will I be safe? And will anyone want to stand and watch?

The visitor hat is is just asking Will I be safe?

As I look at the big picture of risk regardless of the number of people jabbed the risk factor is the number of infections. The jab doesn't stop you getting covid it just reduces the risk of becoming seriously ill, if you do get it, reduces that chance that you can pass it on. Until we brake the transmission we are all at risk.

The risk to us all is not improved by those individuals who could get jabbed but don't. We need to get to a position of a out 80% of the population with antibodies to get us out of the woods. So as some people will not produce any antibodies we as a society need the rest of us to step up and get the jab and personal I think this might include kids over the age of 10.

So back to the original question would I go to a show? A small one with restrictions later on in the year yes. One of any size before October probably not.

Marc

Edited July 3, 2021 by MarcD
Typo

[PhilJ W]

A big question is if you are organising an exhibition is 'Is there enough space?' Extra space will be required to comply with social distancing which will probably mean wider aisles and greater space between exhibitors/traders. This in turn will mean fewer exhibitors and traders can be accommodated. Add to that you will have to limit the number of visitors also due to social distancing. These alone would probably make the typical club exhibition unviable.

[woodenhead]

Just now, PhilJ W said:

A big question is if you are organising an exhibition is 'Is there enough space?' Extra space will be required to comply with social distancing which will probably mean wider aisles and greater space between exhibitors/traders. This in turn will mean fewer exhibitors and traders can be accommodated. Add to that you will have to limit the number of visitors also due to social distancing. These alone would probably make the typical club exhibition unviable.

I think in previous discussions it was mooted medium size exhibitions may be unviable for this very reason - small ones don't take up much space, are cheaper to run and don't need as many concurrent visitors, large exhibitions have the space to spread but the mediums find themselves more restricted and less able to adapt.

[Nearholmer]

2 hours ago, KCL said:

It would be interesting to see the data for question "Which statement best describes your current activities?" broken down by age group. 

Given the steepness with which Covid-risk ramps by age, once one is over about 50yo, and the MR hobby demographic, it’s not too hard to guess what it would tell us.

 

One possibility, I suppose, would be to have a Model Railway Club 18-30, where all the members feel themselves to be immortal (rather than immoral, as with other Club 18-30s), and are prepared to huddle in great numbers in ill-ventilated church halls, and to the blazes with Covid risk.

[CloggyDog]

On 02/07/2021 at 23:19, Les1952 said:

We are a small show and not likely to approach the crowd density of our local Asda.  We will however be counting folks in and out and if necessary calling a pause if it looks like we have more than 150 punters in at one time

 

Les

 

Les, not wishing to worry you without reason, but is the restriction on your venue 150 people total, or 150 punters plus however many exhibitors/stewards, etc., you have?

 

Even a small/local show might easily have 50 assorted exhibitors present throughout the duration of the show, which drops your punter capacity down to 100 at any time, if the former scenario applies. 

Edited July 4, 2021 by CloggyDog

[Les1952]

13 hours ago, CloggyDog said:

 

Les, not wishing to worry you without reason, but is the restriction on your venue 150 people total, or 150 punters plus however many exhibitors/stewards, etc., you have?

 

Even a small/local show might easily have 50 assorted exhibitors present throughout the duration of the show, which drops your punter capacity down to 100 at any time, if the former scenario applies. 

 

The restriction is 450 in the main hall, exclusive of entertainers on the stage and bar and kitchen staff.  We will work on 150 punters.

 

Our MP "Honest Bob" Jenrick has been doing the rounds this morning saying that masks, QR codes and other restrictions are to become optional or be abolished from July 19th.  I don't think we'll be changing anything we do, though it will be nice to be able to take the mask off to ventilate a little more often..

 

As another aside my 6-year old great niece has Covid with symptoms and a positive test at the moment.  That arm of the family are now isolating.  Her two year old sister also has symptoms but they didn't manage a reliable test.  They think she contracted it at a party last week as the host child also has Covid.    Now most adults are jabbed the transmission vector is becoming children.

 

Les

 

[Liam]

Thought I would add my views on the matter. I’m 19 and the week before last received my first vaccine - the Pfizer one. No side effects beyond a slightly sore upper arm. 
 

Considering the nature of exhibitions, in that they’re often attract crowds to venues such as sports halls and exhibition centres and sometimes the experience can be hot and stuffy, for me personally I would avoid a show that wanted everyone to wear face masks. Not that I would actively avoid wearing one having been asked to - I always wear my mask whenever I am in a setting which requires it - but if you’re at an indoor show for four hours and the only time you took your mask off was when having lunch then I personally don’t think that would be a very pleasant experience. But if you were to ensure there was lots of air conditioning and ventilation then wearing a mask wouldn’t be such a problem - if that was the case then I probably would go to a show which required me to wear a mask.

 

If I was organising a show beyond the 19th July then I would limit the number of attendees, get everyone to do a temperature check before they enter and ensure their details are taken down for NHS Test and Trace. I would probably make it clear on the show’s website that taking down your contact details for Test and Trace is a condition of entry - no details, no entry. 

Yesterday I visited the Devon County Show, the first large scale event I’ve been to since the Caravan and Motorhome Show at the NEC in February 2020. As an outdoor event which forms part of the farming calendar I was much happier to attend it than I would be for an indoor event, like a rock concert, where social distancing is impossible. I used public transport to get to the show - everyone seemed to comply with wearing face masks on the shuttle bus and some punters trying to get on midway through the journey were denied entry because the bus had reached its capacity for social distancing requirements. Once at the show, it was a great experience; there were a few occasions where individuals were standing in the middle of the aisles and led to a bit of congestion, which is not beneficial to social distancing, but it was still fairly easy to get past. What did sort of annoy me was at one of the bars the staff had their masks around their chins, which wasn’t a good look since as things stand hospitality staff who face the public generally have to wear face coverings unless exempt. But all in all it was a very good show and I would happily go again, although I completely understand others may be less willing to do so. 

Edited July 4, 2021 by Liam

[bradfordbuffer]

On 30/06/2021 at 22:44, Legend said:

in Scotland it’s just been reported that 2000 COVID cases are directly related to the Tartan Army meeting up for the Euros . What a surprise ! Who didn’t see that one coming . 

Tartan army perhaps? Covid doesn't affect you if your having a good time....just like std's don't hang around in night clubs....but it's all worth the risk when a bit tipsy! 

[Jol Wilkinson]

Stated on BBC Radio 4 this a.m. NHS Scotland reported that only 20% of the infections linked to the England/Scotland match were for people who had attended the large outdoor gathering in London. The other 80% were from people who had watched the matched in pubs or at private parties. This reinforces the view that meeting outdoors appears considerably safer than indoors.

 

My thirty year old nephew recently contracted Covid. He works from home but regularly attends a local gym. He hadn't yet had the fist jab.

[bradfordbuffer]

On 02/07/2021 at 23:46, Pete the Elaner said:

 

I do not really view this as a restriction. A test may be unpleasant but no more then trying new food & finding out you don't like it. (I would rather take 10 tests than be forced to eat a spoonful of thousand island dressing!).

A test first thing in the morning takes 5 minutes before shower & breakfast. By that time you can see if you're positive & if you are, don't go out. It really is that simple & I did it before visiting the garden railway show last week.

If you are on a layout or stand, then call in sick. Nobody will complain if you tell them why.

I understand that home tests are not 100% reliable but if we all followed this routine, it would help massively to control the infection rate.

 

My local club intends to have a 'test before attending' policy but we are relying on honesty. I know I will test myself before going, but will others?

Layout operators calling in sick! Every one will understand! Punters will not be happy if traveled a hour to see a particular layout / trader. the average layout has 4 operators ish! and a hour to pack away! How's that going to happen when set up on Friday and one tests positive on saturday morning! at 9am? and show opens at 10...! It's been at least 18 months since most have been to shows so will be a bit rusty in setting up putting away..the embarasment if every one is outside the hall waiting for you to pack up and vacate Hall! As for honesty pre vist testing .... as any small holder / farmer knows how that works with eggs honesty box payment.....if beer bottel tops where worth money thay would be wealthy...

If only we where this concerned about winter flu in past years how many lives would of been saved!

If covid has tought me any thing ....I knew I couldn't sand most people now it's just everyone! But I'm not discriminating any more!