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The return of exhibitions - a further poll


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Yes, we know figures for deaths, and hospitalisation, but what we don’t seem to have any worthwhile info about is impacts short of those, or indeed what “hospitalisation” means in practice. Which we could really do with in order to make informed, rather than stab-in-the-dark, individual decisions.

 

If you or I catch it, are we each in for two days of feeling a bit rough, two weeks out of action feeling dreadful, two months ditto, etc? I certainly don’t know the answer in my case.

 

K

 

 

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I think that we need to agree to disagree on the risks and whether it is a good idea to restart shows, and whether it is a good idea or not to go to them if they do restart.

 

The risk of severe illness and death from Covid rises with age, and this must have an effect on each person's assessment of the risk to them. You only have to look at the schoolkids on their way home or younger adults around the town and city centres in the evenings to see that social distancing and mask wearing is somewhat alien to them. 

 

The vaccines will have significantly reduced the risk of catching Covid across the age groups for those who have been fully vaccinated, and reduced the likelihood of severe illness and death if you do catch it, at least with the variants currently in circulation.  But the fact remains that the older you are, the more the odds are still stacked against you if you do get it. Also the older ones of us are more likely to have family members who are clinically vulnerable giving us good reason to be extra cautious that we don't catch it, despite the vaccines, and pass it on to them. This can't be helped, it's called "ageing", the one "illness" that's totally incurable.

 

There is clearly  an age divide, or gradient if you prefer, and no amount of arguing across that divide over statistics and the rights and wrongs of opening up completely will get us anywhere.

 

Going to a show is not a risk that I currently want to run, especially if all precautions are thrown to the wind as today's press reports suggest is likely to happen in 14 days time. Consequently, getting folks to comply with the current precautions just got a lot harder as many will see no point in complying now when they're going to be scrapped anyway. It's a bit like coming to the end of a 30 speed limit, how many of us stay below the limit right up until we pass the derestricted sign?

 

I don't want to stand in the way of others who feel that the risk as far as they are personally concerned is acceptable. Likewise I wish everyone who is going to be staging a show in the near future good luck. But don't be surprised if invitations to exhibit are declined by some potential exhibitors, or that attendance is down on your expectations, as many of the oldies like me may choose to stay away in the interests of preservation of ourselves and our family members/significant others at least until it becomes a lot clearer that the risk to us as we perceive it has reduced to an acceptable level. 

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2 hours ago, Gilbert said:

 

This is the current (July)  ONS figure for England

In England, the percentage of people testing positive for coronavirus (COVID-19) continued to increase in the week ending 26 June 2021; we estimate that 211,100 people within the community population in England had COVID-19 (95% credible interval: 185,200 to 239,300), equating to around 1 in 260 people.

So let's put that number into perspective.  ! in 260 people had Covid at the end of June (and cases have expanded since then).

 

So a smallish exhibition over two days with say around 2000 attendees will potentially let 8 infected people through the door.  Four per day and if you as an enthusiast stay at the exhibition for 4 hours you will have been shut into an environment with two infected people for some considerable time.

 

Worse of course for those on the other sides of the barriers since they will be exposed to all eight and with a strong possibility that each of the eight will have spent some time immediately opposite the exhibitor/trader/demonstrator.  

 

Vaccines will provide some protection but as we know it is not 100%.  So the question as Harry puts it:  Are you feeling lucky punk, well are you?

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I suspect for a lot of us, in whatever we do, there will be a degree of taking small steps to gain confidence before possibly being more adventurous.

 

For example, I can watch trains going in and out of Reading station and get a good idea of how busy they are.  Additionally some routes I have travelled pre-pandemic and have a fair idea that they will be lightly loaded. By the time I have explored those routes, I should hopefully start to get an idea of loadings either on connecting routes, or for travelling further on the same route.

 

For example, I feel confident I could travel down to North Camp safely off peak, and from there walk to Ash Vale (change for Aldershot and Alton, hence for MHR). That trip (if successful) should give me more confidence to get to Guildford (don't expect many passengers to join the train at Ash). From Guildford I'm fairly confident of a safe journey off peak down towards Portsmouth, etc - though obviously time of day etc needs to be taken into consideration.

 

In terms of organising shows, I expect that once a few clubs start holding them, they will be able to provide feedback about what they did and how many visitors they got, and any RMWeb members who attended will hopefully also provide feedback about their experiences. This will then inform the decisions of those holding (and attending) other shows, etc.

 

This is pretty much what happened with heritage railways - some (most notably Appleby Frodingham) were very quick out of the blocks, giving an idea what was possible. Gradually more railways, particularly those with compartment stock, started to open, then one by one those with open coaches once suitable methods of working and modifications (such as sneeze guards) had been made.  This gave other railways opportunity to review what the open railways were doing and how they got on, before making the decision for themselves. 

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4 hours ago, Nearholmer said:

I strongly suspect that Mike’s assertion is nonsense,  by a factor of about 360.

 

At the moment c25 000 people in the U.K. are testing positive for Covid each day (“catching Covid now”).

 

That is very close indeed to the number of people who are killed or seriously injured on the roads in the U.K. in a year
 

Or did Mike mean that death or serious illness from Covid is less likely than death or serious injury from road accidents?

 

That might be true with the degree of vaccination now achieved. Do Covid deaths and hospitalisation now sum to less than c70/day now?

 

EDIT: No they don’t. The latest reported daily sum of Covid deaths and hospital admissions is 15 + 358 = 373, so Mike is out by a factor of about 5. 
 

It would appear that one is currently roughly five times more likely to suffer death or serious illness from Covid than from a road accident. And that multiplier is presently climbing by the day.

 

This sums up the problems trying to extrapolate risks with random incomplete datasets. The comparison of Covid to road injury risks may well be way out. But it is irrelevant to equate a positive diagnosis of Covid as equating a road injury or death, because thousands of those positive results are coming from mass testing of people who are asymptomatic or feel mildy unwell. So, as above we look at daily deaths and hospitalisations. But hang on, we are in a Covid 'wave' that will peak and drop down, so without a years' worth of data post-vaccination it is simply not possible to adequately compare those risks with the known annual statistics for road casualties. which leaves us all to either err on the side of caution, or perhaps be more bold/cavalier (choose as appropriate).

Edited by andyman7
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1 hour ago, Andy Hayter said:

Vaccines will provide some protection but as we know it is not 100%.  So the question as Harry puts it:  Are you feeling lucky punk, well are you?

 

I would like to factor in the location of the first show I attend. For example at the charity shop, the rate of infection in the district is currently around 1 in 1,200 not 1 in 260.

 

The true infection rate of people at a hypothetical show near here is going to be even lower than 1 in 1,200 because the show won't attract people from the demographic groups who refuse vaccination. So say, 1 in 1,500.

 

As a male under 60 (just), my probability of death unjabbed might be around 1 in 1,000, reducing to say 1 in 10,000 now I am double-jabbed.

 

So may 1 in 15 million? Here, I would feel lucky.

 

Then again, supposing the infected person happens to be an exhibitor and I visit every display including theirs for fifteen minutes. This is the worst case I can imagine. The odds get a lot worse, but - well - I would still feel safer than sitting for 30 minutes in a peak-time commuter train, or (as is happening at the moment) a train full of rowdy football fans. I think I would trust the people around me. I may be a bit misguide to say this, but I would be able to feel safe at such a show.

 

- Richard.

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Well an interesting survey and discussion.  I attended 10-15 exhibitions a year pre  covid and look forward to returning. 

 

I worry though how many will be viable.  We may see a rush back, as with pubs and gyms, or reflecting the demographic a demise accompanied by moans about price rises.

 

As a multi show attender, I will be raising the bar. It needs to be good or special.  I have visited most venues and have views.  

 

Masks are a no - spectacles steaming up

 

I expect venue organisers will be broadcasting precautions on here but I will also read the reviews and be a day 2 visitor.  I have avoided my local Tesco as mask wearing is poor, I try and shop on the way back to Birmingham from a weekend walk using better managed sites.

 

I expect it will come, but the requirement to self isolate if vaccinated and merely in contact with someone must go.  A number of my work colleagues were sentenced to 10 day solitary because they sat near some unvaccinated idiot who went to the pub to watch some silly football game.  Just not a risk people will take in  the holiday season.  

 

 

 

 

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Hi Everyone...

Hope all are well and remain positive in mind and spirit,watching out for each others best intentions and safety, as only collectively will we get through this difficult period.

 

Working in a retail environment, it has not possible to avoid all social contact within the past 18 months to two years, really since the schools were shut for the first time in March of 2020 it has been possible to witness the best and worst of peoples interpretations of the law!

 

When the first lockdown ensued, we as a business had to adapt to survive, our mail order and non contact local delivery service went 'ballistic' and thankfully although we as non furloughed staff were knackered we went right through until restrictions eased and as a retail premise were allowed to reopen.

It was then that we had to restrict numbers entering the shop, although outside less so, even so some folks ignored the one way system we had in place, refused to adhere to our polite requests to socially distance, however these were in the minority and the collective 'force' of those that did, usually brought those that didn't into line.

 

As time went on, the distancing became ingrained into peoples minds and through much of last year it wasn't a huge logistical problem.

 

Next  time after easing folks seem to have lost that collective effort, as the vaccine roll out began, even after only one dose, certain age groups almost thought of themselves as 'bomb proof' ignoring all past lessons, but the post Christmas lock down seems to have reset the mindset once more?

 

As we are now moving out of restrictions, folks appear at least where I work seem to be more cautious once more, even though now double dosed, that colective will seems to have returned.

 

Personally, double dosed now, I still wearing face covering and social distancing wherever I go.....haven't been on a bus or train for nearly two years now, although I do feel more confident to do so in the near future......

 

The greatest risk as I perceive it is the though of 'what if'....?

Is that guy infectious, is that guy too close, what happens if I do come down with covid,,,,, is that game over....?

 

However, it never really crossed my mind 'BC' (before covid) when I went anywhere.....has that guy got the flu, has that guy got an infectious disease, will my bus / train crash, or will live till the end of the day.

 I could fall down the stairs at any time!

 

It is all a matter of risk in everything, risk over quality of life....it's time to choose perhaps?

 

Remember what Churchill said....'Let us go forward together'

 

Please stay safe guys, however it pans out,

 

Regards always

Bob

 

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Well if none of us are willing to accept that risk then no exhibitions will ever take place again.

But what we haven`t been told by the ONS is how many of the thousands of recent positive and the few hospitalised cases haven’t yet been vaccinated, probably the vast majority of them. If this wasn`t the case, I`m sure it would have been splashed all over the media that the vaccines weren`t working. Perhaps the solution in the short term would be only visitors allowed into any future exhibitions will be those who can prove they have been fully vaccinated to minimise the risk of transmission and the wearing of a face covering and social distancing may also be required. Happily most people are willing to take that risk and as each day passes more and more of the adult population will be vaccinated so therefore that transmission risk will be smaller. By the time we reach September, the start of the modelling season, hopefully we being to see more and more exhibitions taking place and a growing confidence that it would be no greater risk than a visit to the local supermarket on a busy weekend, with no face covering and social distancing and not treating everybody that you come into contact with being riddled with the virus.

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ONS haven't really been involving themselves with the main testing programme or hospitalisations - they fall under the remit of Public Health England (and the equivalent devolved bodies).

 

What ONS have been doing is asking a large number of volunteers (not sure how many) to test themselves regularly and report their results to them. ONS then extrapolate these returns to get the "1 in X" numbers. As far as I know they have not been asking people to record vaccination status.

 

However I have seen some figures reported from PHE indicating what percentage of hospitalisations (I think about 8%) were double-jabbed, which means 92% weren't. Though of course this doesn't give the full indication because if those double-jabbed (being older and more vulnerable) are still being cautious, that 8% could represent a higher proportion of the double-jabbed population. Conversely if double-jabbed people are being less risk-averse than the population as a whole, the proportion swings the other way.

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25 minutes ago, bourneagain said:

But what we haven`t been told by the ONS


So we don’t know ……. Anything else is supposition.

 

we’re back to my earlier plea for solid information upon which to base personal judgements.

 

I’m not, BTW, seeking to imply that ‘things are being kept secret from us’, IMO the issue is more likely to be either:

 

- that the information simply hasn’t been collected yet, or hasn’t been collated in a way that makes it useable; or,

 

- that it hasn’t occurred to anyone who has the info that the people on the Clapham omnibus are intelligent enough to make good use of it, if it is clearly presented.

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I think we’re at an interesting phase of this new wave.  Without doubt, infections are currently rising exponentially.  As that’s a leading indicator, we can’t be completely certain yet how that feeds into hospitalisations and, ultimately and sadly, deaths.  However, there does seem to be growing evidence of the effectiveness of the vaccines.  As this wave plays out, if the health services can cope with the numbers coming through AND it allows them to continue with their other services, covid starts to look “manageable.’”   Yes, people are always going to get infected with it, but if it moves to being an inconvenience for most and treatable for the rest, we’ll either have to get on with things be it football matches, theatre, model train shows or whatever with the increasingly known risk of the consequences or face long-term curtailments of what we’ve previously enjoyed.  There will be a tipping point where the risk of the former position is acceptable to both health service managers and the general population.  Are we at it?  Possibly.  A hell of a responsibility for those both giving the advice on what to do and elected to take those decisions on our behalf. 

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10 hours ago, bourneagain said:

By the time we reach September, the start of the modelling season, hopefully we being to see more and more exhibitions taking place and a growing confidence that it would be no greater risk than a visit to the local supermarket on a busy weekend, with no face covering and social distancing and not treating everybody that you come into contact with being riddled with the virus.

Being an exhibitor will bring a slightly different perspective. I don't visit a supermarket for 6 or more hours at a time. If masks become "optional"or a matter for individuals to "take responsibility" - which seems to be the angle being trotted out on the media this morning -  many will chose not to wear them and I don't expect organisers will want to require them then to police that aspect of an exhibition. At the moment  I'd prefer not to be breathed on by too many strangers over one ot more days at a show. I operate virtually all of my small exhibition layouts from the front so I may be in the minority of exhibitors of course.

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13 hours ago, GoingUnderground said:

I think that we need to agree to disagree on the risks

 

Very true.

 

Over the last month or so I have had many conversations with exhibition managers, exhibitors, traders & punters.

One thing is for certain (based on these conversations) - there will be far fewer visitors & thus far less money, so the shows that do go-ahead will take a hit to a certain extent.

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One of the many unknowns is whether the current wave of infections will have subsided by the time of the trad exhibition season in the autumn.

 

I think it probably will have, on the basis of a combination of vaccination and catching it. Of course, there will still be “some of it about”, but probably not anything like the amount there is now.

 

There’ll probably be ‘flu instead!

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20 hours ago, bourneagain said:

A couple of questions with your proposed set up.

A one way system and maintaining social distancing around the exhibition looks good on paper, but will it result in a time limit on how long each visitor can spend at each layout or trader before they are required to move on to allow other visitors the chance to view. Eg a 4m long layout with a 1m social distance maintained for each visitor can then only accommodate 3 visitors along the side and 2 at each end. Are you then anticipating a queuing system on the more popular attractions? As there is a set limit on the numbers inside the venue, will there be a time limit set on each visitor, how long they can actually spend inside the venue before they are asked politely to leave to make way for other visitors?

What impact do you envisage once the numbers inside have been reached, it will be a one out, one in, system of entry. How many casual visitors (families with children) will just walk away as the waiting queue is too long, especially if it`s raining, resulting in a potential loss of income.

 

It is very unlikely given our numbers that we will need time limiting, with the possible exception of "Cumanavago" which is interactive and where juniors are invited to operate Thomas.  this had time limiting in operation at previous outings due to demand.  It will also need the controllers sanitising between times but how that is done is up to the layout team, who already have experience in how to do this.  It will be placed in the hall in a position wit a lot more space around it than last time out.

 

Social distancing is being abolished if we are to believe the minister this morning.  

 

The waiting time to get in will most likely be determined by how quickly our people can get the iZettle system to accept contactless payments.

 

The limit inside is apparently to be set by us- and we will have to use judgement on the day.  However I don't recall reaching 150 punters in the hall at any point in any previous show of ours.

 

Les 

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33 minutes ago, Nearholmer said:

One of the many unknowns is whether the current wave of infections will have subsided by the time of the trad exhibition season in the autumn.

 

I think it probably will have, on the basis of a combination of vaccination and catching it. Of course, there will still be “some of it about”, but probably not anything like the amount there is now.

 

There’ll probably be ‘flu instead!

 

Looking at the statistics from the point of view of someone who spent a lot of years teaching statistics amongst other things-

 

Being double-jabbed prevents your chance of transmitting the disease by 90 to 95% (depending on whose statistics you read)-  i.e. 9 of 10 double-jabbed people don't transmit the virus  50% of the population are double-jabbed.  From that 45% of the population aren't transmitting the virus even if they come in contact with it.

 

About 25% more are single-jabbed, which cuts your chance of transmitting by 40 to 60% depending on which statistics you read.  That then equates to another 10% who aren't transmitting the virus.- in all 55% or thereabouts.

 

The virus is spreading through unvaccinated people in the main-  and as the average age of unvaccinated people falls the average age of those transmitting it also falls - it is an impossibility for it to rise under these circumstances (that will only rise again when everyone is vaccinated) .  It also means the virus will spread in those places where concentrations of unvaccinated people are found.  

 

Where are these now?   Schools - especially given the rush amongst University students to get jabbed.   After the end of term the infection rate will fall.

 

The average age of a show attender is high- most of our punters will be double jabbed.  Even with crowding model railway shows are a much less desirable event from the virus' point of view than football crowds etc.

 

Just a thought

 

Les

 

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3 hours ago, Gilbert said:

Being an exhibitor will bring a slightly different perspective. I don't visit a supermarket for 6 or more hours at a time. If masks become "optional"or a matter for individuals to "take responsibility" - which seems to be the angle being trotted out on the media this morning -  many will chose not to wear them and I don't expect organisers will want to require them then to police that aspect of an exhibition. At the moment  I'd prefer not to be breathed on by too many strangers over one or more days at a show. I operate virtually all of my small exhibition layouts from the front so I may be in the minority of exhibitors of course.

 

Traders and society stand attendees face similar second-guessing go/no-go decision dilemmas. Unless some local club shows normally held in the autumn get announced (not on currently) our next potential event attendance isn't until LFoRM. At an upcoming board meeting we are going to have to decide now what we are likely to be doing in not far off a year's time as it impacts on what stock we build up (if going) or don't order if not. 

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Until some smaller shows have taken place I really feel we won't have any idea what the future of shows will be. The large shows Warley and the Warners shows really have a tricky choice to go ahead or not.  I am talking about autumn/winter exhibitions where there should be no government restrictions in place. All of these require huge amounts of money to be put upfront in deposits and other costs, which could result in massive losses if people either don't show or the logistics laid down make it impossible to adhere the exhibition to.   

 

Venues may enforce their own rules, which could scupper some shows taking place which is why Scaleforum and WycRail have had to cancel as limited time at at exhibits and one way systems where some of the rules laid down which would probably be hard to organise and impossible to police.

 

David

 

 

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One big money-spinner for many club shows is catering, often making the difference between loss and profit. Even if many restrictions are eased it still might not be possible to provide catering.

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I think we have all got it wrong....we have to look at positives! If autumn shows go ahead with the normal demographic of attendance....and if it caused a major increase of c19 infection and hospitalizations.....the second hand model railway trade will be buoyant!...

I'm just saying what everyone thinking!

Life is for living

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The attitude of large, commercial venues will be interesting.  Are they being more innovative in how they price lettings?  They must recognise that with the uncertainty out there that a large hire rate might put off organisations wanting to hire a venue.  A risk share model to encourage exhibitions, not just railway modelling, might be justified to bridge the gap between COVID closures and the new normal.  That might mean lower deposits or a tiered price/attendee type structure.  Surely better to get some people through than none? (assuming you cover variable cost of opening a venue).  There may also be more scope for potential exhibitors to negotiate with venues at present as to what they'd need to make a show viable from their perspective.  Buyer power has increased!

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3 minutes ago, bradfordbuffer said:

I think we have all got it wrong....we have to look at positives! If autumn shows go ahead with the normal demographic of attendance....and if it caused a major increase of c19 infection and hospitalizations.....the second hand model railway trade will be buoyant!...

I'm just saying what everyone thinking!

Life is for living

Will it though? Possibly there will be a glut and you can't even give them away.

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3 minutes ago, PhilJ W said:

Will it though? Possibly there will be a glut and you can't even give them away.

Absolutely. It's one of the basic laws of the free market. When demand exceeds supply prices go up. When supply exceeds demand prices go down.

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