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Warley National Model Exhibition 2021 - Cancelled


Graham_Muz
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1 hour ago, Barry O said:

BUT Covid is never going away... remember that people attending Model Railway Shows and in "normal" life before this version of CoVid died from flu. Not much worry about that in the past...

Very true and the NHS are still coming to terms with it due to variant surges while the main vaccination program continues. While that is happening I think it’s a prudent choice by those

1 hour ago, Barry O said:

people (who) had already told the Club they would not attend this year so.. no show.. 

Why take a risk when a little patience allows the mass vaccine  program to complete and leaves time for the equivalent of the annual flu jab to be set up. 
When all this started last March we were told it could be 18months plus before we got a vaccine and here we are 17 months later into the teens and 20’s being vaccinated. 
Small sacrifice for us, acceptable loss to the club and the NHS benefits. 
Here’s to 2022 :) 

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1 hour ago, Barry O said:

 

You can no longer demand that people wear face masks or face shields.  

 

 

 

Baz

 

 

Yes you can. You make it a condition of entry within the T&C’s of the ticket purchase. No mask worn over mouth and nose = no entry, no exceptions. No different to standing at a night club with the wrong trainers on.

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7 minutes ago, PMP said:

Yes you can. You make it a condition of entry within the T&C’s of the ticket purchase. No mask worn over mouth and nose = no entry, no exceptions. No different to standing at a night club with the wrong trainers on.

 

You will need properly trained bouncers on the door to enforce the rules by force - and they will have to wander around the hall to enforce this as well. Miscreants might not be willing to argue with a nightclub bouncer (although some do) they might be happier to have a pop at some old bloke from a model railway club.

 

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Just now, Phil Parker said:

 

You will need properly trained bouncers on the door to enforce the rules by force - and they will have to wander around the hall to enforce this as well. Miscreants might not be willing to argue with a nightclub bouncer (although some do) they might be happier to have a pop at some old bloke from a model railway club.

 

I agree you’d need to police it. A security guy on the door and one or two wandering the hall might be a loss leader to encourage sensible people to attend. It’d help sway me to view it positively.

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7 hours ago, woodenhead said:

I'd argue pertinent, it is such reporting that will make anyone above 50 probably think twice about attending large gatherings of people thus making it harder to plan shows. 

 

But you didn't say that was why you shared it when you posted. Humans are genetically predisposed to look for bad news, which is why clickbait is as apocalyptic as possible and shares are rarely positive stories. In this case, the phrase "Despite the lifting of many COVID restrictions the ongoing perception of risk means there are too many uncertainties to deliver a successful event in 2021." is important, as it says the situation might be OK, but people's perception of it is very different, and that will stop them travelling. Reporting and sharing horror stories will continue this imbalance well into the future.

 

It could be argued that this whole story is an excellent example - the e-mails were sent out at 4pm and within 5 minutes, I'd been told from 3 different sources. Within 10 minutes, this thread had started. People love bad news and are keen to share. The moment the club sent that e-mail, this story developed a life of its own.

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5 minutes ago, Phil Parker said:

.

 

It could be argued that this whole story is an excellent example - the e-mails were sent out at 4pm and within 5 minutes, I'd been told from 3 different sources. Within 10 minutes, this thread had started. People love bad news and are keen to share. The moment the club sent that e-mail, this story developed a life of its own.

Whilst I don’t disagree with the ‘concept’ of your argument, because this is our ‘Cup Final’ I think the news would have travelled just as fast, possibly faster, if it had been a green light ‘Go’ result.

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The Gauge O Guild had decided back in June to cancel their two day Guildex show at Stafford (previously Telford) - as you will see from the statement below it was a combination of traders not willing to commit to attending and a large payment due for accommodation - obviously we can't be sure that these are the same factors that have affected the Warley decision.

 

Quote

The decision was based on the following facts:
13 traders had made it very clear that although they wanted shows to resume, they would not be attending any events in 2021.
Overseas traders obviously could not commit to attending.
61 traders had returned forms to show their intent and help with floor planning but the common theme was that they would want restrictions lifted on 21st June, so that during July and August confidence would grow and footfall might be near normal.
There was also concern that many of of our overseas members may not be able to attend. This big two-day event has been a great attraction for overseas members who travel long distances and combine Guildex with holidays in the UK but foreign travel and potential quarantine restrictions is a huge concern for them.
Delta variant numbers were rising and whilst we were, and still are, being told that hospitalisations and deaths will not reach anywhere near the numbers we experienced prior to vaccination, we have become risk averse and it will take more than 6 weeks to change the perception of risk that many people have. Safety has to be the number one priority. Ensuring it is safe is one thing. Convincing people it is safe is another.
There is also the human factor of doubt...traders are not sure if the visitors will come and the visitors are not sure if the traders they want to see will be there. I doubt I have the answer to that!
Also, 50% payment for accommodation was due on 5th August. Just two weeks after the next announcement.
Two weeks is not enough time to finalise plans and know that the event is viable and none of our members want money paid out when there is still uncertainty.

 

The Govt want all those to attend similar events to be fully vaccinated - having seen the crowds at the NEC every year, that would have been an impossible task - I understand attendance is normally in excess of 15,000 over the weekend with several hundred in the advance ticket scrum at opening time when there is a mad rush forward - how do you control that number of people. Timed tickets have been suggested but who would want to get in at 3.00pm when it takes all day to see things properly.

 

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36 minutes ago, Phil Parker said:

 

But you didn't say that was why you shared it when you posted. Humans are genetically predisposed to look for bad news, which is why clickbait is as apocalyptic as possible and shares are rarely positive stories. In this case, the phrase "Despite the lifting of many COVID restrictions the ongoing perception of risk means there are too many uncertainties to deliver a successful event in 2021." is important, as it says the situation might be OK, but people's perception of it is very different, and that will stop them travelling. Reporting and sharing horror stories will continue this imbalance well into the future.

 

It could be argued that this whole story is an excellent example - the e-mails were sent out at 4pm and within 5 minutes, I'd been told from 3 different sources. Within 10 minutes, this thread had started. People love bad news and are keen to share. The moment the club sent that e-mail, this story developed a life of its own.

Bad news travels fast because we cannot help it, we're predisposed to it.

https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/why-is-there-no-good-news/

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I suspect it will take at least 6 months before people learn to accept the risks. Btw a lot of medics regard non medical masks to be of very marginal importance. They were mainly introduced by governments to remind people about Covid and encourage people to change their contact behaviour.

 

Rather than argue about masks, it would be better if people just learned not to stand too close to others and not for too long ... not easy in the typical Bachmann returns scrum.

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12 hours ago, Phil Parker said:

 

Looking at today's anti-vax protest attacking the BBC at television centre (they moved out years ago, but hey ho) then the stewards on the door better be an armed militia if you want to impose all restrictions. I suggest this makes all shows and indeed all other indoor events impractical now and in the future. 

 

The future prospects for large, privately organised indoor events attracting the older age groups depends entirely on the prevailing infection rate. as I stated in my original points, if the rate is so low as to be insignificant, people won't be too nervous to attend in the absence of tough covid controls.

Safety of the the majority of the public must come before individual freedom in this particular set of circumstances.

As for anti-vax, anti-mask, "anti-behaving considerately", protesters, how many of them are "regulars" on any form of protest that offers the opportunity to destroy other people's property and cause a fight? If we still had proper police forces, with freedom of action, rather than hands-tied public baby-minding services, these anarchists would be dealt with very firmly and swiftly. The idiots on such protests, who always seem to gravitate to London and the other big cities, would find very little support in my home area, as far as I can see. almost all are still wearing masks routinely on approaching shops here, and many of the smaller shops whose owners actually have to work in the shop rather than just direct the staff and spend the profits, still demand quite correctly that anybody wishing to be admitted wears a mask.

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1 hour ago, PMP said:

Yes you can. You make it a condition of entry within the T&C’s of the ticket purchase. No mask worn over mouth and nose = no entry, no exceptions. No different to standing at a night club with the wrong trainers on.

 

Further example to show that the lack of a general law demanding mask wear does not prevent private events form insisting on masks: Consider the years before the law banned smoking in indoor public spaces - there were business or venues that barred smoking anyway.

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20 minutes ago, gr.king said:

If we still had proper police forces, with freedom of action, rather than hands-tied public baby-minding services, these anarchists would be dealt with very firmly and swiftly. The idiots on such protests, who always seem to gravitate to London and the other big cities, would find very little support in my home area, as far as I can see. almost all are still wearing masks routinely on approaching shops here, and many of the smaller shops whose owners actually have to work in the shop rather than just direct the staff and spend the profits, still demand quite correctly that anybody wishing to be admitted wears a mask.

 

I used to live and work in a country with the police state that you advocate. It wasn't very nice and it led to a violent revolution. In another country nearby it led to a civil war that is still going on having cost a million lives.

 

The price of freedom is allowing the occasional idiot to do their thing. Most people recognise them for the idiots they are and take no notice 

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One thought, is crowd control when events do open up.

 

I for one miss Warley, Ally Pally etc, when a “big” one does open, I may be tempted to travel to new terrain to visit it, if its off my usual piste, given how long its been.

 

if many are like minded.. those first events may find more visitors than they plan for, so some advance / on the day capacity management might be prudent to avoid a crush !

 

Railtours have found that this year, whilst there is the usual plethora steam trips, of which there is a glut, and understandably elders are more cautious, modern imagers are younger, but being  starved in the good times, and are finding, most modern image trips are hugely over subscribed since end of lockdown.. GBRFs charity railtour sold out in minutes..literally minutes taking everyone, including the organizers by surprise.

Edited by adb968008
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1 hour ago, gr.king said:

 

The future prospects for large, privately organised indoor events attracting the older age groups depends entirely on the prevailing infection rate. as I stated in my original points, if the rate is so low as to be insignificant, people won't be too nervous to attend in the absence of tough covid controls.

 

 

One of the biggest events at the NEC is the Caravan show which attracts the older age group and is held over 6 days in February and repeated in October. Cheap to get in (about £8) and FREE parking, the event takes up almost the whole of the NEC complex. The October show has been cancelled even though this where every manufacturer showcases their new models. There were two reasons given - reluctance of visitors to attend (even though most would be vaccinated) and the fact that the manufacturers were so busy with 'staycation' orders and staff shortages, they didn't want to create too many extra orders that they couldn't fulfil . . . . !!

.

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I have decided that I shall attend shows as and when I want. I shall probably wear a mask of which I shall shall need several because they get wet with prolonged use.

I have also downloaded the NHS covid passport just in case someone would like to see it on admission. I believe many public venues do want to see the passport before entry. 

All I need now is for the club to decide it's going to meet again. 

Edited by PenrithBeacon
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11 hours ago, Paul C said:

On balance, I think Warley MRC has made the right decision for this year, but equally I think we can feel more optimistic that these large events will be viable again going into next year, especially with the experience of other large indoor events that will still run this autumn and winter to draw on.

 

I really feel that the point Paul C makes is crucial:  "large events will be viable again going into next year, especially with the experience of other large indoor events that will still run this autumn and winter to draw on."

 

I will be particularly interested in the statistics for theatre attendances, since I think that these share many of the problems facing exhibition organisers.  Theatres can't offer staggered timed entrance tickets - the performance starts at a stated time, yet they have to manage the flow of visitors into one confined space where they are packed less than 1 metre apart (granted, they're all facing in the same direction); at the interval they have to manage the flow of some, but not all, of the audience as they extricate themselves from their seat in the auditorium to visit the toilets and the bar (not necessarily in that order; finally they have to organise the quick exit of all the audience at the end of the performance so that the theatre can be prepared for the next perfomrnce.

 

Now that full capacity audiences are allowed in theatres, it will be very interesting to see what the public's perception of the safety of a theatre trip is.  If the West End theatres only attract small audiences, the promoters will loose money and the shows will close.  If they attract good audiences, the shows will run for longer.  Either way this will provide valuable information about the public's perception of the safety of attending large indoor events. 

 

Most of the posts on this and similar threads have, understandably, given anecdotal stories and personal opinions.  What I need is evidence.  I know (from the detailed market research I do each year) that just over 70% of the visitors to my exhibition travel by public transport, I also know (from Government statistics) that, at present, passenger numbers on both trains and buses are about 55% of their Feb 2020 levels.  What I don't know is how the public's behaviour will change over the next few months, but it is this information which is crucial to deciding on the financial viability of staging an exhibition.  The upfront expenses of staging a show are large, the return on investment is modest, even in a good year.

 

 

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I wasn’t going to post on this topic but it does appear people are getting into a tizz about things. The sad fact is covid is here for good, we need to learn to live with it. Does this mean that no exhibitions will ever occur again? Of course they will start up again at some point. This is not really the place to comment on covid specifically which I have my views on, regardless if you agree with vaccination or not or it’s effectiveness having to prove you had a jab is just destructive to any business, and trying to police this for warley was probably just not logisticaly possible. Look at the queues in normal times. We had euro 21 recently with large crowds gathering and no massive spike in infections from it, let’s just get on with life and not live in fear, but I suspect that many organisations fear legal repercussions more than the virus itself and cancel there events.

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I wonder in the longer term if this hiatus may lead to a rethinking of the purpose and aims of exhibitions.

In normal times there are far more exhibitions in Britain than in any other country. I generally enjoy visiting or exhibiting at  them but, elsewhere, those organised by clubs are designed to show off the hobby to the interested public and for modellers to meet rather than to help finance the running of the club. I think the latter leads  to the need to help generate a high "box office" by providing a constant flow of action whereas, whenever I've visited exhibtions in France including the half dozen or so when I've helped to exhibit at, I've found myself discussing the layout with other modellers  (often intrigued by our strange British habit of actually shunting trains)  for as much time as I'm actually running trains.  In that regard exhibtions tend to feel more like our specialist shows like Expong, ExpoEM, etc. or those organised by the French or German Railways Societies with none of the same pressure to keep trains moving at all times.

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3 hours ago, Mike Bellamy said:

The Gauge O Guild had decided back in June to cancel their two day Guildex show at Stafford (previously Telford) - as you will see from the statement below it was a combination of traders not willing to commit to attending and a large payment due for accommodation - obviously we can't be sure that these are the same factors that have affected the Warley decision.

 

 

The Govt want all those to attend similar events to be fully vaccinated - having seen the crowds at the NEC every year, that would have been an impossible task - I understand attendance is normally in excess of 15,000 over the weekend with several hundred in the advance ticket scrum at opening time when there is a mad rush forward - how do you control that number of people. Timed tickets have been suggested but who would want to get in at 3.00pm when it takes all day to see things properly.

 

And don't forget that, unlike most other large Model Railway Exhibitions, there are other events going on at the NEC alongside the Warley Show, including the much bigger motorbike show, usually right next door, meaning that the whole complex is very busy for the whole weekend.

 

John

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37 minutes ago, Andymsa said:

I wasn’t going to post on this topic but it does appear people are getting into a tizz about things. The sad fact is covid is here for good, we need to learn to live with it. Does this mean that no exhibitions will ever occur again? Of course they will start up again at some point. This is not really the place to comment on covid specifically which I have my views on, regardless if you agree with vaccination or not or it’s effectiveness having to prove you had a jab is just destructive to any business, and trying to police this for warley was probably just not logisticaly possible. Look at the queues in normal times. We had euro 21 recently with large crowds gathering and no massive spike in infections from it, let’s just get on with life and not live in fear, but I suspect that many organisations fear legal repercussions more than the virus itself and cancel there events.

I think it's more than getting into a tizz about things.

 

The Warley group have to balance finance with risk, they took the decision at present it is still too much of a risk to try and do a several thousand attendee exhibition in a massive commercial exhibition centre.

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After reading the exhibitions thread at the weekend I was thinking how over-cautious we all are compared to society at large where much caution has been dropped. 
 

However, it only takes a small dropout of spending visitors, paying exhibitors or working volunteers to make the thing unworkable.  Or, as mentioned above, by being the first, it could be overcrowded.

 

The Warley club can not run the risk and so understand the cancellation.  Leeds then Stafford for me.

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9 minutes ago, woodenhead said:

I think it's more than getting into a tizz about things.

 

The Warley group have to balance finance with risk, they took the decision at present it is still too much of a risk to try and do a several thousand attendee exhibition in a massive commercial exhibition centre.


that’s the point there will be always risk , the risk is based on a perception and until there is something to compare against !
 

It is understandable that they don’t want to take a financial risk. 

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1 hour ago, Andymsa said:

We had euro 21 recently with large crowds gathering and no massive spike in infections from it, let’s just get on with life.....

 

A classic example of dangerous misinformation.

 

Thank you @Phil Parker for setting the record straight.

 

 

 

1 hour ago, Phil Parker said:

 

Edited by Colin_McLeod
typo
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Just thinking  instead of resuming with large shows where the financial risk is huge , it may be better starting with small/ medium sized ones to see how well these are supported . That way the risk is limited and if successfull can be built upon .

 

I'd certainly feel more comfortable attending shows if everyone was double vaccinated and had to prove it and masks mandatory. 

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