Dapol Delay notice

[57xx]

On 02/10/2021 at 08:20, adb968008 said:

news like this might cause panic buying of model railways.

 

No power for factories to make them

No containers to ship them

No space on the ship to bring them

No hgv driver to get them to the producers

No fuel to bring them to our homes.

No Electric providers left to run them

 

I might need a drink after reading that, but theres No CO2 to make beer.

 

At this rate I might be forced to do some modelling.

 

Are the long queues forming outside model shops this morning and are they imposing purchasing limits?

 

 

Haven't we already reached that stage a while ago - it's called pre-ordering. Production runs are so small these days everyone pre-orders for FOMO. If you wait to see what the model is like once released, there is a shortage.

[bingley hall]

On 02/10/2021 at 02:40, John M Upton said:

"As reported in the media recently"

 

First I have heard of it and yet another frustrating excuse.....

 

All over the news for several days before the announcement. My sympathies if you have to live in a cave for whatever reason, but on the other hand you have form as a serial Dapol hater

 

[Oldddudders]

28 minutes ago, bingley hall said:

My sympathies if you have to live in a cave for whatever reason

I believe he drives trains. 

[The Stationmaster]

2 hours ago, Oldddudders said:

I believe he drives trains. 

Electric trains I understand.

[The Johnster]

Taking a longer term view, and assuming current diffiucties will be an unpleasant memory soon(ish), the question is whether the 'Chinese model' of production for model railway RTR/RTP is going to continue to be viable.  Clearly many of the cost advantages that persuaded British, European, and American manufacturers to move the physical production to China 20 or 30 years ago have vanished, and in my view this is a very good thing as we were, IMHO, exploiting their low costs and especially wages in a country where people were, allegedly, happy to work for a bowl of rice a day and wait years for a Flying Pigeon bicycle.  Chinese people work hard and deserve nice things as much as we do, and it is not surprising that they want to be able to live in nice apartments, own cars, tvs, computers, hifi systems and have holidays, like we do.  Good for them!

 

So, if I were an RTR volume producer, I would be asking myself why I am still sourcing product from China, especially as recent history has illustrated the fragility of the supply chain.  My answer to myself would probably be that the current problems are temporary and will be resolved over the coming months, and that costs are rising everywhere.  What, therefore, can be achieved  by moving the production model out of China?  And where would you move it to? 

 

Where are the places that have the skilled labour force required in conjunction with low rates of pay and other costs?  India comes to mind, possibly Brazil, but Africa is riddled with corruption and other South American countries are even worse than urban Brazil for criminality and drug gangs.  Wages are rising in India for the same reasons that they are in China, and raw materials have to be shipped in, further increasing costs.

 

The only alternative is to make the stuff in the UK.  Yeah, good luck with that; we simply don't have the skills here to construct models of saleable quality at the price the market will accept.  Model railway products are labour intensive, especially at the assembly stage, and modern models have a lot of disparate tiny bits to assemble, in a low wage economy that focusses on minimum wage workers on short term contracts.  Pay peanuts, you'll get monkeys, and I don't want my trains assembled by monkeys.  And of course you would have to put out for up front money to set up the assembly plants before you moved the production from China, where everything is rented and contracted out to provide the flexibility that the producers need, and sit tight for a while until the production recovers following the move enough to clear the debt and start making profit again; how are your backers, typical short termist City take the money and run merchants who do not make their livings by playing the long game necessary for this sort of investment, going to react to that?

 

I reckon that production will stay in China for the foreseeable future.  One might argue that we should never have gone there in the first place and are now paying our just due for previous exploitation and greed, but we did go there and are so wedded to their system that it is very difficult to get out and still remain in business.  China still provides a good quality product at what is, I contend, a reasonable and competitive cost, though the rising of retail prices is shockingly fast now, as we've been predicting for the last few years.  Bachmann are knocking out simple 4-wheel steam age wagons at £25+ a pop, and Hornby are only a few beer vouchers behind them, Dapol are cheaper but the older models don't really cut the current mustard. 

 

Buy now before prices rise again, but you'll be hampered by the sort of delay Dap have announced here, and pre-ordering won't save you any money.  I am lucky in that I was foresighted enough to make an effort to buy as many of my locos and stock as soon as I could manage when I returned to the hobby 6 years ago after several decades away, and have most of what I want, despite my limited pension income, and feel sorry for anyone starting out now on a restricted budget.  I cut my cloth accordingly, with a relatively small DC controllled BLT project (which was the best I could do anyway in the space available), and managed, just, but I wouldn't be able to do much at all if I was starting out now; prices have effectively doubled and some have trebled in the 6 years I've been involved.

 

Secondhand prices are now such that there is not much gap between them and the RRP of the new product for items still in production, and little relief is to be had there; few newcomers will be able to sort out the running problems inevitable with older 2h items which are of a lower quality than the prices suggest; one sees Lima 94xx for £50 BIN on the 'Bay for example, a very crude mech and a body moulding with the splashers in the wrong place, no cab detail, tabs cut into the rear of the bunker, couplings that are massive, no separate detail, and undersize buffers that look like mushrooms. 

 

It would now probably cost not far off the price of a new Baccy 94xx to bring it up to spec; the obvious answer is to buy a new Baccy.  I went down the well trodden path of putting a Baccy pannier chassis under one of these and living with the splasher mismatch a few years ago, but was given the Lima loco.  These were going for about £25 a pop on the Bay at the time.

 

There is no cheap way into the hobby at anything other than a very crude level of detail and scale anymore; those days are gone.  Dap have done the right thing here IMHO in informing their customers and potential customers of their problems, despite the probable loss of large prairie sales to Hornby, who have supplies to hand.

[Hal Nail]

Interesting thoughts from Johnster.

 

Similarly when I got back onto modelling, I bought sensibly at first taking a view I would accumulate over a period of time. Didnt take long to realise prices were only going one way and given people seem prepared to pay current new prices even for old used stuff on ebay, I might as well buy now and sell on if I decide to cut back later. A lot of models are better investments  than cash!

Edited October 6, 2021 by Hal Nail

[Helmdon]

another one here - I bought the house to build the model railway in and we moved in in July this year, but I've known what I wanted to do since 2017 and have been stockpiling since then on a blend of decent second hand and new when there's no alternative. I dread to think what it's all worth, and what it would cost me to start now.

[Covkid]

On 04/10/2021 at 00:27, woodenhead said:

You have to also think of the crews on these ships stuck outside harbour waiting to gain entry

 

On 04/10/2021 at 07:15, Hal Nail said:

Not sure about that. I'm in Southampton and think they might be better off where they are!

Probably better there than some places I can think of.

We watched the Netflix film "Captain Phillips" the other night based on a true story about Somali pirates trying to seize the Maersk Alabama.  Pretty horrific really but I couldn't figure out why the crew didn't have access to guns when the pirates were shooting them. Not sure how accurate the film was but thank god for the US Navy and the US marines who sorted the problem . 

[7013]

Thee OO gauge Class 59 will probably not be built until Accurascale do it now

[Stefen1988]

First german Model Train Companies started to move Production from China to Vietnam (first was Fleischmann in 2014) which looks like a more reliable Country than the PRC.

 

How about Japan? Kato can produces High Quality Model Trains for very low prices (you get a JapaneseType of E-Loco for 99 € in Germany).

[The Pilotman]

46 minutes ago, Stefen1988 said:

How about Japan? Kato can produces High Quality Model Trains for very low prices (you get a JapaneseType of E-Loco for 99 € in Germany).

Kato service a much larger market than any UK manufacturer does. Their unit costs are lower because tooling costs etc. are spread over bigger production runs.

[The Stationmaster]

13 hours ago, Western Aviator said:

Kato service a much larger market than any UK manufacturer does. Their unit costs are lower because tooling costs etc. are spread over bigger production runs.

And they produce models outside Japan so I'm informed. (I have heard China being mentioned asa source for some Kato models although that might not be correct).

 

The current shipping/container shortage problems are being somewhat overplayed I reckon.  The UK has plenty of port capacity but has suffered Cur stoms delays due to failure to plan for the impact of Brexit and there are now road haulage problems but clearance from ports doesn't now seem to be much slower than it was in the past.  The big problem at the moment is the USA where it was recently reported that 45 container vessels were waiting to dock at West Coast ports and when I looked yesterday there were definitely over 30 vessels waiting to unload at Long Beach - so that could be as much as (or probably more than) the equivalent of 600,000 TEUs waiting to be landed and then forwarded/discharged etc and goodness only knows how many empties waiting to go in the opposite direction, through just one US port.

[Davexoc]

9 hours ago, The Stationmaster said:

The current shipping/container shortage problems are being somewhat overplayed I reckon.  The UK has plenty of port capacity but has suffered Cur stoms delays due to failure to plan for the impact of Brexit and there are now road haulage problems but clearance from ports doesn't now seem to be much slower than it was in the past.

 

We get 11 dry-bulk tanktainers per week, only coming from The Netherlands into Thamesport, Immingham, Teesport or Purfleet. The situation has improved a bit, but we still get last minute changes where customs clearance just hasn't happened. This sometimes means a driver turns up at the booked time to pick up a container from the port, and either waits for hours or is turned away, which with the current driver situation, eats into precious driving time.

And the weather has been fairly good recently, but the high winds/storm excuse is starting to rear its head as winter approaches too.

[younGGuns7]

10 hours ago, The Stationmaster said:

And they produce models outside Japan so I'm informed. (I have heard China being mentioned asa source for some Kato models although that might not be correct).

 

The current shipping/container shortage problems are being somewhat overplayed I reckon.  The UK has plenty of port capacity but has suffered Cur stoms delays due to failure to plan for the impact of Brexit and there are now road haulage problems but clearance from ports doesn't now seem to be much slower than it was in the past.  The big problem at the moment is the USA where it was recently reported that 45 container vessels were waiting to dock at West Coast ports and when I looked yesterday there were definitely over 30 vessels waiting to unload at Long Beach - so that could be as much as (or probably more than) the equivalent of 600,000 TEUs waiting to be landed and then forwarded/discharged etc and goodness only knows how many empties waiting to go in the opposite direction, through just one US port.

Perhaps you would like to come and do my job for a few weeks then you may understand the issues we are experiencing. There are multiple issues, containers in short supply due to being in the wrong part of the world, cost of containers spiralling out of control, ability to control shipments through Columbo, decanting containers in other ports to enable vessels to get back to the Far East, Maersk stopping shipping from some Asian countries to Europe due to better rates obtained in the Asia to USA route, inability to get all the ships unloaded in the UK, delays at final destination, haulier issues with short staffing, road congestion leading to delays - overplayed I have aged 40 years in the last two years  

[mdvle]

On 07/10/2021 at 05:47, The Stationmaster said:

The current shipping/container shortage problems are being somewhat overplayed I reckon.

 

 

I suspect a lot of people would disagree with you on this.

 

This article indicates up to 30 day delays on China-EU, and a mere 22 days of delay on China-US.

https://www.maritime-executive.com/article/congestion-delays-and-supply-chain-challenges-will-continue-into-2022

 

Canada isn't immune either - Rapido had a Q&A Live session on Thursday (7th October) and Jason indicated one project shipped from China the last week of June and was somewhere unknown in Canada after 3 months, another project landed in Vancouver 3 weeks ago and still hasn't arrived, and a third project has been stuck in customs for just under 2 weeks in addition to the existing shipping delays.  Shipping costs have gone up by 4x.  And there is no end in sight to the shipping issues.

 

It is simply a case of Covid lockdowns driving too much consumer demand and the logistics network being unable to handle the volume worldwide.

 

 

[David Stannard]

On 07/10/2021 at 20:47, The Stationmaster said:

And they produce models outside Japan so I'm informed. (I have heard China being mentioned asa source for some Kato models although that might not be correct).

 

 The vast bulk of Kato models are made in Japan, the main items that are produced in China are the scenic accessories. 

[younGGuns7]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-58888552

 

Update on the Felixstowe situation. I would suspect that MSC will get preferential treatment due to the relationship however we have experienced these issues

[adb968008]

On 06/10/2021 at 19:39, 7013 said:

Thee OO gauge Class 59 will probably not be built until Accurascale do it now

Dapol 59 is now 6 years and 5 days since announcement.

 

Hattons 66 is 3 years 5 months since announcement, 2 years 3 months since it hit the shelves.

 

 

[Roy Langridge]

10 hours ago, adb968008 said:

Dapol 59 is now 6 years and 5 days since announcement.

 

Hattons 66 is 3 years 5 months since announcement, 2 years 3 months since it hit the shelves.

 

 

 

It is even beating the Kernow Thumper which was just short of 5 years if I remember rightly: May 2008 - March 2013?

 

Still, Covid has had a huge impact and I would not want to be a manufacturer in these times where it is hard to guarantee anything. Force Majeure clauses in contracts must be very busy at the moment...

Roy

[younGGuns7]

38 minutes ago, Roy Langridge said:

 

 Force Majeure clauses in contracts must be very busy at the moment...

Roy

They certainly are, I have had a couple of suppliers begging for price increases due to there supply chain calling in Force Majeure

[adb968008]

2 hours ago, Roy Langridge said:

 

It is even beating the Kernow Thumper which was just short of 5 years if I remember rightly: May 2008 - March 2013?

 

Still, Covid has had a huge impact and I would not want to be a manufacturer in these times where it is hard to guarantee anything. Force Majeure clauses in contracts must be very busy at the moment...

Roy

True, but the tooling is getting a bit older too, regardless whether its used or not.

 

Standards being offered today are a bit higher bar, than they were in 2015.

[stewartingram]

The Dapol releases of the Garrett, Royal Scot and Adams Radial haven't appeared yet.....was it the early '70s?

[The Johnster]

On 06/10/2021 at 18:59, Covkid said:

Pretty horrific really but I couldn't figure out why the crew didn't have access to guns when the pirates were shooting them.

I suspect this may be to do with a lack of trained and experienced merchant seamen who are also trained in the use of firearms, which would probably have to be automatic weapons of a type not usually encountered in civilian use to be effective, against pirates armed with automatic weapons in fast skiffs which are a fairly difficult moving target to hit.  'Captain Phillips' showed very well (I thought) how relentless these guys are, and how ineffective is the protection against them unless ships are escorted by warships.  It might be that some sort of escorted convoy system is the answer to this problem in the affected area.

 

I believe some cruise ships in these waters do have maching guns mounted and trained people to use them.

[47164]

Mmm interesting the Captain Phillips comments, my Brother is a private yacht skipper, in his industry when cruising the caribbean they generally carry enough firearms to go round… and do avoid east Africa for obvious reasons .

[Nova Scotian]

On 07/10/2021 at 17:28, younGGuns7 said:

Perhaps you would like to come and do my job for a few weeks then you may understand the issues we are experiencing. There are multiple issues, containers in short supply due to being in the wrong part of the world, cost of containers spiralling out of control, ability to control shipments through Columbo, decanting containers in other ports to enable vessels to get back to the Far East, Maersk stopping shipping from some Asian countries to Europe due to better rates obtained in the Asia to USA route, inability to get all the ships unloaded in the UK, delays at final destination, haulier issues with short staffing, road congestion leading to delays - overplayed I have aged 40 years in the last two years  

This. Supply chains are utterly fubared.

 

Add to that massive increases in the price of primary energy inputs; coal, oil, natural gas. China is not the only place going through and looking at rolling powercuts. India is struggling, and there are countries in Eastern Europe and the Balkans who are having a very unhappy time. There's a reason so many UK utilities are going bankrupt, steel producers are talking about shutting down etc...

 

This is the thing, there are global trends - and then there are national decisions that can either make things worse, or better, depending on the investment that countries have made in strategic reserves, diversification of supply, long-term supply agreements (on the energy side). There's also how "frictionless" they've made their trade, it's not all about tariffs, the more quickly you can move goods through a border the better. Storage is always limited, it's always costly, it always slows things down. This is why brexit has become such an issue; the friction at the border slows everything down, everything backs up, that delays everything else moving around behind it, to new ports etc etc. The problems compound. In the UK you can then add the haulier issues because brexit, long-term trends, and stupidity. There's a reason the UK is faring worse than average. But no-one is "free and clear", every country has painpoints they're experiencing.

 

Global trends - everyone cancelled and postponed orders when the pandemic hit. Typically you'd expect a recession, recession means less purchasing. Everyone acted like this was going to cause a deep recession (it did, for three-to-six months), but the massive government interventions around the world prevented that, and then all these companies are trying to catch up on pent-up demand, there is/was no major recession that was sustained, and everyone's ordering and production is off. Then add in the issues with containers, moving empty containers, the cost of containers, the cost of air freight etc. We have seen product moving by air that would never have moved by air before, but it's created such supply constraints (of aircraft) you have companies that are left shrugging their shoulders; ten plus grand for a shipping container that's going to be 6-12 weeks, or much more than that for air freight that might be 4-8 weeks if you're lucky. And even if you paid for it, and you have it on the apron, it might get left behind if you're gazzumped by someone paying more!

 

Energy wise, hopefully that's a non-issue within six months, China is ramping up coal production (ugh), and there's more capacity coming onstream for other sources of energy too. However semi-conductors are going to be 18+ more months where there's issues. The logistics chain... anybody's guess. Building materials here more than doubled, then crashed, now climbing strongly again. It's an absolute bloody mess.