Hornby 2022 Range - pre-announcement frothing - now closed

[Pete the Elaner]

3 minutes ago, mdvle said:

 

Grass is always greener situation - the UK market is actually far more competitive and thriving than the US market.

 

 

Grass is always greener. I have seen this in other aspects of life.

I model UK so don't keep a watch on US or mainland Europe models, so thanks for the comparison.

[The Johnster]

1 hour ago, mdvle said:

 

Don't forget, what you and other lack in spending is more than made up by the simply matter of how many of you there are in the hobby vs. the "rich" person.

But it isn't, not in a proportional way anyway, is it?  As I've said, I'm not bemoaning my poverty-stricken pensioner's lot (cue tragic violins), actually I'm fairly content with it, this is the way the world works, and, as Paul Simon said, who am I, to blow against the wind?

 

If I can amass a fleet of 25 coal wagons over a couple of years, and the big layout guy can buy 4 or 5 hundred at a time at any time the fancy takes him, that means that there needs to be 16 or 20 of me to one BLG (and there probably are) to have the same influence on the thinking of manufacturers making coal wagons even if you don't take the time factor into acccount.  If you do take the time factor into account and make it about how many wagons I can pay for now, and I can afford to buy 2 wagons at a time (pushing it, I budget £40 a month for trains) (often exceed the budget, though), then there now needs to be 200 or 250 of the likes of me to one of 'im to have that sort of influence, and I would be much less sure that there are that many of the likes of me even it there are usually enough of us to go around.  And, in fact, I source my coal wagons from two different companies and the bay of E in order to recreate the variety of a typical coal train of the 1950s, so those figures are heavily weighted in favour of the likes of me, and still don't convince me that we've achieved any sort of real parity with BLG in terms of influencing what manufacturers do.   Marketing are not interested in the likes of me and why should they be; catering to my needs is a rapid path to the recievers' door.

 

It is. as I've said, a fair and equal democracy, one in which each £ has an absolutely equal vote.  My £ is worth the same as big layout guy's, but he has more of them.  An interesting thing that I have observed about money is that it is magnetically charged and will repel other money unless it attains a critical mass, after which the poles are reversed and it attracts more of itself to itself.  After it reaches a very critical mass, it is difficult to spend it at a faster rate than it attracts more of itself to itself, and even if you try to gamble it at long odds, you might get unlucky, and win...

 

It is like the Law, which treats everybody absolutely equally and fairly, with the result that a millionaire will be punished for sleeping on the street in exactly the same way as a pauper, and you can't deny that this is perfectly fair (well, actually, you can, and I do, but nobody listens to me.  That's ok, I don't always listen to them, either).  I would agree that there are in fact more of us than them, and mention that the slaves of Rome were never numbered lest they should realise their power (I'm Spartacus, by the way), and that this is apparent in wishlist polls, but a marketeer working for a model railway company should, if he's worth his salary, be well aware that there is more to it than that.  He has to take into account, literally, the train set and collector markets as well, and pay full attention to big layout guy's needs.  If you were Hornby, or Bachmann, or even Accurascale, would you prefer to seel 1,000 models to 1,000 people, or 1,001 models to one person?

 

So, we can and do exercise our collective power in wishlist polls and market research, and also in fora such as this one, where it is our presence as individuals rather than the number of £ votes at our command  that counts.  But because marketing is aware of this, it is impossible to quantify what effect our collective bargaining has; my suspicion, not in any way a proven fact, is that it is much less than we think it is and it suits the companies to allow us to believe that is is not.

 

Big layout guy may even be in a position to commission models, and is certainly in a position to place bulk orders that will influence which models are given the limited Chinese factory production slots, which will also affect the market.  This is a matter that is private between BLG and the company, and none of our business.

[Pandora]

A post referred to Hornby Twitter and the Railway Children film, is it on the cards for a Railway Children set?  A set with the  recent issues of period 4 and 6-wheel coaches  and was the locomotive the children described as the "Green Dragon" was that the L&Y 0-6-0 Barton tender loco 52044?

[The Johnster]

I've been saying this a lot lately...

[Steamport Southport]

19 minutes ago, The Johnster said:

I've been saying this a lot lately...

 

Click on the three dots in the top right hand corner and then click HIDE.

 

It gets rid of the post.

[Ben Alder]

11 hours ago, TheSignalEngineer said:

The Staniers also travelled widely having been noted over most of the LMS system from Bath to Blair Atholl, London, Wales and northern England.

40150 was sent to the ScR and made its way from Dumfries to Thurso, apparently unloved wherever it went....

[adb968008]

4 hours ago, Pandora said:

A post referred to Hornby Twitter and the Railway Children film, is it on the cards for a Railway Children set?  A set with the  recent issues of period 4 and 6-wheel coaches  and was the locomotive the children described as the "Green Dragon" was that the L&Y 0-6-0 Barton tender loco 52044?

 

43924, 45596 and 5820…lots of mk1 suburbans.

 

Hornby need to be all over this, but upto the 2021 range they werent exactly tooled up ready for it… only the 4F and wagons.

An s160 from Hornby could pay off for Polar Express theme sets too.

That said it probably needs to be a railroad quality one.

 

How about a 64’ Suburban mk1 ?

(Hornby's duplicated pretty much everything now from Replica Railways range except this).

 

on a lighter note their is a viable plot for a Railway Children 2020 .. family fleeing a London flat from Covid, rocks up on an Azuma then a 331.. find a closed railway full of abandoned Pacers… kids jump on the internet to see where they are going 1by1 and eventually save one and open it as a cafe.

 

 

 

Edited December 30, 2021 by adb968008

[Blandford1969]

5 hours ago, Ben Alder said:

40150 was sent to the ScR and made its way from Dumfries to Thurso, apparently unloved wherever it went....

Yes, they steamed so badly as being described as 'bread vans' by some i.e. that's all they could manage.

[PMP]

9 hours ago, mdvle said:

 

Don't forget, what you and other lack in spending is more than made up by the simply matter of how many of you there are in the hobby vs. the "rich" person.

 

Not sure what the UK is like, but Jason of Rapido has said 50% of the North American sales are to collectors - and I doubt most collectors are buying fleets of locos.

 

 

There not as common as the magazines and others would like you to believe.

 

Many parts  of the US doesn't have cellars, and over the last 20 years the basement/cellar has been taken over to be used for regular living space - the media room, extra bedrooms, etc - or now turned into basement apartments to rent out so the home buyers can actually afford to buy the home.  And home sizes have been shrinking, and high rise condos increasing in popularity.

 

A 4x8 would be luxury for many people in North America these days.

 

The one place where there can be a big difference is in the modular layout space - the ability to cheaply rent large spaces like gyms and ice rinks (off season) makes large modular layouts attractive.

 

 

Suspect that is more the case that the 4x8 plans are still for the most part within the toy train part of the hobby, with anyone serious generally going to a shelf layout in a limited space.

 

 

Unlikely.  A lot of it is done by the layout owner, often by trial and error.

 

Ah, some factual information about the North American market at last.

[Butler Henderson]

2 hours ago, adb968008 said:

 

43924, 45596 and 5820…lots of mk1 suburbans.

 

Hornby need to be all over this, but upto the 2021 range they werent exactly tooled up ready for it… only the 4F and wagons..

Except as has already been pointed out the ex Airfix 4F is the LMSised version and not the MR original that 43924 is and which Bachmann make, not that of course would stop Hornby given their scant regard to  accuracy on such matters.

[RJS1977]

2 hours ago, adb968008 said:

 

An s160 from Hornby could pay off for Polar Express theme sets too.

That said it probably needs to be a railroad quality one.

 

Which is precisely why I'd be interested in buying one....

 

However I suspect Lionel probably have a worldwide licence for Polar Express models (we had some quite nice battery sets in the shop at Wallingford). In any case, although the S160s are often used for PE in the UK, I don't think it's the type of loco that's used in the film.

[The Stationmaster]

2 hours ago, RJS1977 said:

 

Which is precisely why I'd be interested in buying one....

 

However I suspect Lionel probably have a worldwide licence for Polar Express models (we had some quite nice battery sets in the shop at Wallingford). In any case, although the S160s are often used for PE in the UK, I don't think it's the type of loco that's used in the film.

Anything to do with Polar Express (if Lionel don't have worldwide rights?) will no doubt come with a big licence fee.   And Hornby have a less than good record when it comes to that area with various deals from the Martin era in particular being made after the subject had passed its peak of interest on tv or whatever.  And perhaps their late arrival on the Titfield scene might indicate that they are now far more wary of entering into licence deals and take their time getting there only to be overtaken in the process?

 

On the other hand of course having lost out at Titfield (and perhaps reduced to producing some sort of faux imitation under a name such as 'Totfield Firebolt' to get round licencing issues) they might be encouraged to go earlier and harder for 'Railway Children' related licences? 

[Forester]

Having foolishly missed out on the good-looking SECR D class Hornby may back away from looking at further SR 4-4-0s, but they would be wrong to do so.

 

The later large powerful SR 4-4-0s are far more typical and useful to SR modellers and remain a big gap in the market:

L, L1, D1, E1

 

You only need look at the high prices paid for 00-Works L class models when they (rarely) appear on eBay to see the demand.

[Dunsignalling]

20 hours ago, RJS1977 said:

 

The US/Canadian market has the advantage that there is a very much larger population, and correspondingly a much larger number of modellers. This means that models sell in larger numbers, so their development costs can be spread over more units, keeping costs down. And as costs are lower, a modeller is more likely to buy more than one, increasing sales volumes further.

 

Conversely, in the UK, the current model is for short production runs, which means development costs are spread over fewer units, pushing prices up, so fewer models sell, so the next production run is shorter, pushing the price up more....

Also, of course, if you have a ruddy great basement full of railway, you need an awful lot more stock, too.

 

John 

[Dunsignalling]

47 minutes ago, Forester said:

Having foolishly missed out on the good-looking SECR D class Hornby may back away from looking at further SR 4-4-0s, but they would be wrong to do so.

 

The later large powerful SR 4-4-0s are far more typical and useful to SR modellers and remain a big gap in the market:

L, L1, D1, E1

 

You only need look at the high prices paid for 00-Works L class models when they (rarely) appear on eBay to see the demand.

High prices on eBay indicate demand (e.g. 10) in excess of supply (e.g. 4), not absolute demand. 

 

Cheaper and less stressful to buy stuff when it's current, ain't that what credit is for? 

 

Also, if Hornby are to do another inside cylinder SR 4-4-0, can we have one that doesn't self-destruct from the inside this time, please.

 

John

Edited December 30, 2021 by Dunsignalling

[Dunsignalling]

Sobering realisation that would have been unthinkable ten years ago.

 

I've just cottoned on that the number of Hornby models I have on pre-order is currently exceeded by the number of other brands from which I have r-t-r models on pre-order.

 

Didn't notice that sneaking up on me.

 

I wonder if it will change over the next fortnight?????

 

John

Edited December 30, 2021 by Dunsignalling

[mdvle]

16 hours ago, The Johnster said:

If I can amass a fleet of 25 coal wagons over a couple of years, and the big layout guy can buy 4 or 5 hundred at a time at any time the fancy takes him, that means that there needs to be 16 or 20 of me to one BLG (and there probably are) to have the same influence on the thinking of manufacturers making coal wagons even if you don't take the time factor into acccount.

 

To be clear, the following is guesswork.

 

But I doubt anyone, particularly in the UK market, is regularly going into their local hobby shop and buying 400 or 500 of any one item of rolling stock.  How many layouts in the UK need 500 Mk1 coaches, or even 500 of any given goods wagon?  If there is any such customer in the UK, then they are a rarefied exception rather than a 1 in 16 or 20.

 

And if their hypothetical 400 or 500 goods wagon purchase is spread instead across multiple models and multiple manufacturers, then their ability to distort the market disappears.

 

Even in the US market I would guess that doesn't happen - even the basement empires only have a couple of thousand freight cars at most on them (train length and yard compression is significant) and that will have been accumulated over years if not a decade or more - because even if they had the money to buy 400 of something they a) don't need 400 identical items(*) and b) much of that yearly budget is swallowed up by actually building that basement filling layout - consider how much track they need, and ponder the cost of track for example...

 

 

* - in the modern day modeling there are some people modeling unit trains made up of X wagons/cars of identical things, but even then needed 400 or 500 is likely to be a rarefied exception given the length of trains on anything but a very large modular layout.  Rapido is currently producing a unit train freight car (the AutoFlood III Hopper) and even then they are only offering 3 6-packs of cars, plus a 6-pack of unnumbered cars for those who really want a lot.  That's a mere 18 cars coming fully decorated in one run.

 

Not sure about the length, but they have a photo of a model sitting in the palm of a hand so call it 7" - that 18 car train comes in at over 10' long - there aren't many layouts, even filling a basement, that can handle trains much longer that and most will want them to be shorter.  Even if buying for multiple trains, it is going to be difficult to get up to 100 cars let alone your 400 to 500 of them.

 

[Covkid]

It would be really nice to think Hornby could announce a new tool diesel shunting loco based on the success of the various steam locos of 0-4-0 and 0-6-0 recently. One of those Hudswell Clark jobbies with the steam type chimney and the jackshaft at the nose end.  My personal preference would be a Bagnall DL2 which is similar the Drewry 0-6-0 designs.  The reality however is that Hornby will probably push that awful unscale "Bagnall" 0-4-0 in some more liveries like "Commonwealth Games 2022". 

 

As others have mentioned the "Beavertail" saloon must be a tempt for Simon, even if he cannot known out the full rake. 

 

Wagons - I partially gave up on Hornby years ago apart from the LMS coke hoppers and the NE 21T hoppers. Especially as Hornby took the trouble to create the Tope Clam and Rudd, the Tope being a cut down 21T hopper. Why not produce a new tool 21T coal hopper body to go on the Tope chassis ?  This is where accurascale are stealing a march with their recent 12' underframe under the recent coil and coal wagons - and probably more to come. If Hornby took the time to design a 10' wagon underframe they could easily rip through the BR freight diagram book !!

           

[Covkid]

2 minutes ago, mdvle said:

Even in the US market I would guess that doesn't happen - even the basement empires only have a couple of thousand freight cars at most on them (train length and yard compression is significant) and that will have been accumulated over years if not a decade or more - because even if they had the money to buy 400 of something they a) don't need 400 identical items(*) and b) much of that yearly budget is swallowed up by actually building that basement filling layout - consider how much track they need, and ponder the cost of track for example...

 

 

* - in the modern day modeling there are some people modeling unit trains made up of X wagons/cars of identical things, but even then needed 400 or 500 is likely to be a rarefied exception given the length of trains on anything but a very large modular layout.  Rapido is currently producing a unit train freight car (the AutoFlood III Hopper) and even then they are only offering 3 6-packs of cars, plus a 6-pack of unnumbered cars for those who really want a lot.  That's a mere 18 cars coming fully decorated in one run.

 

Not sure about the length, but they have a photo of a model sitting in the palm of a hand so call it 7" - that 18 car train comes in at over 10' long - there aren't many layouts, even filling a basement, that can handle trains much longer that and most will want them to be shorter.  Even if buying for multiple trains, it is going to be difficult to get up to 100 cars let alone your 400 to 500 of them.

 

 

To be fair, US modellers have probably amassed collections over a few years, and the quality of models has probably improved at a steadier pace. Here in the UK who wagon types are appearing RTR such as the Accurascale Coil which has created it's own mini market I guess, although I appreciate that US modellers of a particular RR are always grateful for a cylindrical hopper of their favourite preference, as opposed to a generic respray.  The Irish scene is utterly blessed with RTR models, and once Accurascale have delivered there NIR stuff I predict many many more UK layouts with an Irish theme. 

[Steamport Southport]

24 minutes ago, Covkid said:

It would be really nice to think Hornby could announce a new tool diesel shunting loco based on the success of the various steam locos of 0-4-0 and 0-6-0 recently. One of those Hudswell Clark jobbies with the steam type chimney and the jackshaft at the nose end.  My personal preference would be a Bagnall DL2 which is similar the Drewry 0-6-0 designs.  The reality however is that Hornby will probably push that awful unscale "Bagnall" 0-4-0 in some more liveries like "Commonwealth Games 2022". 

 

As others have mentioned the "Beavertail" saloon must be a tempt for Simon, even if he cannot known out the full rake. 

 

Wagons - I partially gave up on Hornby years ago apart from the LMS coke hoppers and the NE 21T hoppers. Especially as Hornby took the trouble to create the Tope Clam and Rudd, the Tope being a cut down 21T hopper. Why not produce a new tool 21T coal hopper body to go on the Tope chassis ?  This is where accurascale are stealing a march with their recent 12' underframe under the recent coil and coal wagons - and probably more to come. If Hornby took the time to design a 10' wagon underframe they could easily rip through the BR freight diagram book !!

           

 

Like the Rustons and Sentinels? That's four different types of industrial diesel shunter.

 

I think you will find Hornby started the trend of serious industrial locomotive models with the Sentinel, everyone else has followed them.

 

 

Jason

[sirwilliamfrs]

20 hours ago, Pete the Elaner said:

 

 

Crimson lake with the longer reverse turbine & smoke deflectors (literature suggests it got both these modifications during the same repair - I have never seen a photo of it in this condition though).

 

 

 

 

 

There is an undated B&W photo of 6202 on Page 102 (upper) of "The LMS Turbomotive" by Clements & Robinson,  2016, published by Crecy Press which depicts the loco entering Crewe wearing faded Crimson Lake livery with deflectors and extended reverse turbine casing. The livery is identifiable by the two stripes along the footplate as black locos only had one. The same book states that the smoke deflectors were fitted in February 1939.

Edited December 30, 2021 by sirwilliamfrs

[JSpencer]

4 hours ago, Forester said:

Having foolishly missed out on the good-looking SECR D class Hornby may back away from looking at further SR 4-4-0s, but they would be wrong to do so.

 

The later large powerful SR 4-4-0s are far more typical and useful to SR modellers and remain a big gap in the market:

L, L1, D1, E1

 

You only need look at the high prices paid for 00-Works L class models when they (rarely) appear on eBay to see the demand.

 

There were rumours at a moment in time in Hornby doing a D and E class. Of course, having got four Dapol Ds this year, means that I am not in a mood to have yet another class duplicated.

[phil gollin]

1 hour ago, JSpencer said:

 

There were rumours at a moment in time in Hornby doing a D and E class. Of course, having got four Dapol Ds this year, means that I am not in a mood to have yet another class duplicated.

.

 

The L1 is an old Tri-Ang model, and Hornby have to do it soon before another company take it off them.

 

The D1 and E are also useful.

 

.

[The Johnster]

I think the big gap in industrial diesels is a jackshaft driven 0-4-0, preferably one suitable for the 50s/60s era as well as more current prototypes.  Hornby have assiduously steered clear of this by choosing  the prototypes they have, the Sentinels and Rustons, and I doubt if they are going to dip their toes in further lest theyend up competing for market share with their own models, and Bachmann have 03/04 experience but seem uninterested in industrials.  
 

This leaves the small guys and commissioners, and if any are reading this, I’d be in the market for a jackshaft Fowler, YE, NB, something around the 150/200hp ballpark, priced about the level of a Hornby W4 or Hats AB.  Trouble is, I’d only want one, so there needs to be a few of us to make it worth your while.  Maybe I need to start thinking in kit terms…

[DLPG]

I really hope that the D49 is retooled.