A statement on The Titfield Thunderbolt.

[boxbrownie]

2 hours ago, AMJ said:

I presume that if they were to remove any mention of the film and just call it film pack 1 then that's not misrepresenting the item unlike inspired by....

If Hornby had their wits about them they could have released quite a few different Locos/train packs under the banner of “Famous Trains on Film” and included the Lion and wagons without so many ripples in the pond.

[Pint of Adnams]

12 hours ago, kevinlms said:

Not that I'm defending their seemingly dodgy practice over the 'Titfield Thunderbolt'. It's just that I have never seen any connection with 'Hornby Railways', with the products of Binns Road, in the nearly 60 years, since Meccano went broke!

Had you not noticed then that SK is blatantly exploiting that connection with the 'Hornby Dublo' heritage models?

[Dunsignalling]

10 minutes ago, Pint of Adnams said:

Had you not noticed then that SK is blatantly exploiting that connection with the 'Hornby Dublo' heritage models?

It's really just a marketing exercise based on counterfeit nostalgia, though.

 

Their target buyers seem to be octogenarian collectors of the real stuff and I don't qualify on either count.

 

Just hope they don't make anything I want in these tiny batches...

 

John

Edited January 17, 2022 by Dunsignalling

[PaulRhB]

56 minutes ago, Dunsignalling said:

It's really just a marketing exercise based on counterfeit nostalgia, though.

There’s not too much difference between a model of a 1950’s loco and a model of a 1950’s model  

 

Buying a new microwave last week I was presented with retro microwaves?!?  

[Dunsignalling]

46 minutes ago, PaulRhB said:

There’s not too much difference between a model of a 1950’s loco and a model of a 1950’s model  

 

Buying a new microwave last week I was presented with retro microwaves?!?  

 

Not much different, I suppose, to the obsessive 1930s application of "streamlining" to all manner of non-mobile goods.

 

 

Edited January 17, 2022 by Dunsignalling

[The Stationmaster]

1 hour ago, boxbrownie said:

If Hornby had their wits about them they could have released quite a few different Locos/train packs under the banner of “Famous Trains on Film” and included the Lion and wagons without so many ripples in the pond.

I think they might still have perhaps run into trouble over Dan's house which all to obviously only ever existed in the film.  Far simpler, and cheaper, to have used one of the L&M bodies on a Lowmac 

[30801]

13 hours ago, Dunsignalling said:

Their target buyers seem to be octogenarian collectors of the real stuff and I don't qualify on either count.

 

That would be a diminishing market...

I like the new Dublo but have no interest in OG Dublo. I see it as a premium brand rather like Dapol Black Label.

[Oldddudders]

12 hours ago, PaulRhB said:

retro microwaves?!?  

Do the Laws of Physics acknowledge such a concept?

[Compound2632]

2 minutes ago, Oldddudders said:

Do the Laws of Physics acknowledge such a concept?

 

Put your hot food in and it comes out cold. The thermal vibration of the molecules results in population inversion in the ground state hyperfine electron energy level structure; applying a weak microwave field results in the stimulated emission of microwave radiation, transferring energy from the food to the field. It's a maser, but one that is not sustained, as there's no continuous external energy source.

[phil-b259]

19 hours ago, AMJ said:

I presume that if they were to remove any mention of the film and just call it film pack 1 then that's not misrepresenting the item unlike inspired by....

It would still need things like the actual model of ‘Dan’s House’ to be removed from the train pack of that strategy were to be perused.

[boxbrownie]

11 hours ago, The Stationmaster said:

I think they might still have perhaps run into trouble over Dan's house which all to obviously only ever existed in the film.  Far simpler, and cheaper, to have used one of the L&M bodies on a Lowmac 

Absolutely, but they could have just not bothered with the house TBH and keep safe.

[boxbrownie]

1 hour ago, Oldddudders said:

Do the Laws of Physics acknowledge such a concept?

Have you not seen the gas microwaves in Radio Rentals? 

[The Stationmaster]

1 hour ago, 30801 said:

 

That would be a diminishing market...

I like the new Dublo but have no interest in OG Dublo. I see it as a premium brand rather like Dapol Black Label.

As we're repeatedly told that we have an ageing population and that people are living longer it would seem that the opposite is true.  It is quite interesting that in other areas of collecting there often seems to be new collectors appearing all the time and lots of prices don't fall but very often beat inflation.

 

However I do wonder to what extent Hornby understand the collector area of the market having had some serious 'misses' in the past.  In contrast Rapido are clearly approaching things from a different angle by going both for nostalgia and creating tooling which can also be used in a wider market area.  So, for example,  I shall be very much in the market for the OB (and variants of livery perhaps/hopefully) and the AA20 the AA20 brakevan. 

[Compound2632]

11 minutes ago, The Stationmaster said:

As we're repeatedly told that we have an ageing population and that people are living longer it would seem that the opposite is true.  It is quite interesting that in other areas of collecting there often seems to be new collectors appearing all the time and lots of prices don't fall but very often beat inflation.

 

It's the same fallacy as one hears in relation to theatre, live classical music, etc. - the elderly audience is seen as a sign that the writing is on the wall. What's overlooked is that the supply of newly elderly people with the leisure and cash to indulge in these things shows no sign of diminishing. It is, admittedly, frustrating for the bright young impresarios wanting to push beyond what the conservative tastes of such people will stand. Perhaps Rapido are doing better in that respect!

[30801]

16 minutes ago, The Stationmaster said:

As we're repeatedly told that we have an ageing population and that people are living longer it would seem that the opposite is true.  It is quite interesting that in other areas of collecting there often seems to be new collectors appearing all the time and lots of prices don't fall but very often beat inflation.

 

The pool of Dublo collectors seems to be diminishing with prices on the wane. 

I suppose there will always be a collector market for toys you couldn't afford as a kid.

 

There also seems to be a new market appearing for new toys aimed purely at adults. Look at the child-free advertising on this Playmobil Enterprise.

https://www.playmobil.co.uk/star-trek---u.s.s.-enterprise-ncc-1701/70548.html

Edited January 18, 2022 by 30801

[The Stationmaster]

13 minutes ago, 30801 said:

 

The pool of Dublo collectors seems to be diminishing with prices on the wane. 

I suppose there will always be a collector market for toys you couldn't afford as a kid.

 

There also seems to be a new market appearing for new toys aimed purely at adults. Look at the child-free advertising on this Playmobil Enterprise.

https://www.playmobil.co.uk/star-trek---u.s.s.-enterprise-ncc-1701/70548.html

I haven't looked lately but Dublo prices used to go up & down like a fiddler's elbow although obviously at a much slower pace.

 

This is a common thing in many areas of collecting as apart from changing fashions in what to collect the collecting market works in its own way.  IF something is low priced newcomers tend to go for and that gradually pushes the prices up so another, lower priced, market begins to open.  Thus - for a very different field of collectng the high price of 'Titanic' related items pushed people towards, as one example, Lusitania related items.

 

It also depends very much on how much money is around at particular when somebody enters a particular collecting field and whether or not there is somebody with lots of money to buy along a certain theme.  For example because somebody was after them and had a bottomless wallet the price of GWR jigsaws in good condition went through the roof but I bought mine long after that bubble had burst because that buyer had everything he wanted so I paid much less than he did for exactly the same thing in similar or better condition.  Railway excursion handbills is another odd area because there the subject can make a far bigger difference to price than age, condition, or the rarity of handbills from a particular company - I have paid far less for some 19th century handbills than some from the 1950s go for, purely because certain collectors have no interest in them because they don't relate to football matches or horse racing.

[Dunsignalling]

Long-term collectability depends on the vast majority of the models produced being destroyed or damaged, leaving the untouched, boxed, tiny minority gaining high monetary value through the law of supply and demand. 

 

Even with a declining number of people collecting (say) original Hornby Dublo, the numbers of models that survive in absolutely mint/boxed condition with the instructions etc., still in the box , probably still won't match the potential demand, so high values will be maintained. However, collector value is a kind of pyramid  and a decline in the number of would-be owners will have an effect on lesser specimens of the model. More concisely, if there are 100 keen and well resourced collectors  in the market, the best 100 models will be sufficiently sought after to become and remain valuable. The further below that level any individual example sits, the more steeply will its value drop off.

 

The problem with making things with a deliberate intention of them becoming the collectibles of the 2060s and  beyond is that many more will be set aside unused, so the mint-survival rate could concievably reach 50% or more, compared to a fraction of 1% as is usual with the old stuff. That may be only partially balanced out by only making 500 of each in the first place. Our successors, half-a-century hence, may find that the less durable plastic-based models are what have accumulated the greatest "rarity value". 

 

As with all collecting, the cold truth is that the people who buy the items new are almost never the ones to make really serious profits on them. Those sorts of values are seldom reached until their grandchildren are well into middle age. Even then, nothing is guaranteed, simply because it's impossible to predict with any real certainty what will retain enough appeal for future generations to compete to own them. 

 

John 

Edited January 18, 2022 by Dunsignalling

[Dunsignalling]

3 hours ago, Compound2632 said:

 

It's the same fallacy as one hears in relation to theatre, live classical music, etc. - the elderly audience is seen as a sign that the writing is on the wall. What's overlooked is that the supply of newly elderly people with the leisure and cash to indulge in these things shows no sign of diminishing. It is, admittedly, frustrating for the bright young impresarios wanting to push beyond what the conservative tastes of such people will stand. Perhaps Rapido are doing better in that respect!

 

Not yet but, logically, it should as we baby boomers gradually "work our way out" of the demographic. Not just through mortality but through getting out and about less as we age.

 

Along with a trend towards later retirement for all but a fortunate few, that should lead to a more evenly-balanced distribution of ages across the active population.

 

A more direct example might be the demand for retirement/nursing home places which, intuitively, should be within 15-20 years of the highest level it's ever likely to reach. 

 

John

Edited January 18, 2022 by Dunsignalling

[Coryton]

1 hour ago, Dunsignalling said:

Our successors, half-a-century hence, may find that the less durable plastic-based models are what have accumulated the greatest "rarity value". 

 

 

That reminds me of one of my favourite bits from "Three Men in a Boat":

 

"The “sampler” that the eldest daughter did at school will be spoken of as “tapestry of the Victorian era,” and be almost priceless. The blue-and-white mugs of the presentday roadside inn will be hunted up, all cracked and chipped, and sold for their weight in gold, and rich people will use them for claret cups; and travellers from Japan will buy up all the “Presents from Ramsgate,” and “Souvenirs of Margate,” that may have escaped destruction, and take them back to Jedo as ancient English curios."

[Compound2632]

1 hour ago, Coryton said:

“Souvenirs of Margate,”

 

Prescient!

[adb968008]

4 hours ago, Dunsignalling said:

Long-term collectability depends on the vast majority of the models produced being destroyed or damaged, leaving the untouched, boxed, tiny minority gaining high monetary value through the law of supply and demand. 

 

Even with a declining number of people collecting (say) original Hornby Dublo, the numbers of models that survive in absolutely mint/boxed condition with the instructions etc., still in the box , probably still won't match the potential demand, so high values will be maintained. However, collector value is a kind of pyramid  and a decline in the number of would-be owners will have an effect on lesser specimens of the model. More concisely, if there are 100 keen and well resourced collectors  in the market, the best 100 models will be sufficiently sought after to become and remain valuable. The further below that level any individual example sits, the more steeply will its value drop off.

 

The problem with making things with a deliberate intention of them becoming the collectibles of the 2060s and  beyond is that many more will be set aside unused, so the mint-survival rate could concievably reach 50% or more, compared to a fraction of 1% as is usual with the old stuff. That may be only partially balanced out by only making 500 of each in the first place. Our successors, half-a-century hence, may find that the less durable plastic-based models are what have accumulated the greatest "rarity value". 

 

As with all collecting, the cold truth is that the people who buy the items new are almost never the ones to make really serious profits on them. Those sorts of values are seldom reached until their grandchildren are well into middle age. Even then, nothing is guaranteed, simply because it's impossible to predict with any real certainty what will retain enough appeal for future generations to compete to own them. 

 

John 

i’d disagree with that.

future generations are more virtualistic and less materialistic.

I think collecting large amounts of anything is less likely.. stamps are off a cliff.

society is more tv and tech based.. the days of not having the internet meant imagination replaced boredom.

 

if you look at 00 gauge from the 1970/80’s.. what is actually collectible ?

Anything popular has been retooled… mainline, lima, replica early Dapol.. its all bargain bin material.

Dublo stood out as its a generational change / technology shift.

Lima is probably much the same, its a cheap shed filler, that captures a generation, though i’m not sure long term it will out perform in price in the same way.

 

Tbh I think 00 steam itself is on borrowed time, much of what lands in my weekly inbox of special offers is yet more little black obscure 0-6-0’s, and more.. I think the future of steam models is preserved classes, and colourful classes, with the odd sprinklings of obscure and exciting classes, but what after that..?

 

 

 

[Compound2632]

9 minutes ago, adb968008 said:

much of what lands in my weekly inbox of special offers is yet more little black obscure 0-6-0’s, and more..

 

The very bread and butter of realistic steam era modelling. If only new ones of these were being produced rather than yet more monster pacifics...

Edited January 18, 2022 by Compound2632

[The Stationmaster]

In fact just about anything is collectable - if someone decides that is what they want to collect although some of it will never command high prices or represent considerable value (which is why some people collect it - it's cheap).  hence 1970s Mainline or airfix models are collectable but there is no doubt little intetest in them (as far as I have ever seen in the auction room).

00 steam outline is an interesting market and going/has gonr very much teh way you suggest.  the younger generation of today is more likely to have travelled ona steam hauled train that toi i have experienced a trip on a Class 80X Hitachi unit so specialised market for steam outline models and old coaches etc will always be nostalgia for someone for the foreseeable future.   But no doubt as you say novelty and colour will always play a part - hence, I suspect, the nature pf Rapido's first British steam outline models.  what will be more interesting is to see what comes after them and the 15XX. 

[Dunsignalling]

43 minutes ago, adb968008 said:

i’d disagree with that.

future generations are more virtualistic and less materialistic.

I think collecting large amounts of anything is less likely.. stamps are off a cliff.

society is more tv and tech based.. the days of not having the internet meant imagination replaced boredom.

 

if you look at 00 gauge from the 1970/80’s.. what is actually collectible ?

Anything popular has been retooled… mainline, lima, replica early Dapol.. its all bargain bin material.

Dublo stood out as its a generational change / technology shift.

Lima is probably much the same, its a cheap shed filler, that captures a generation, though i’m not sure long term it will out perform in price in the same way.

 

Tbh I think 00 steam itself is on borrowed time, much of what lands in my weekly inbox of special offers is yet more little black obscure 0-6-0’s, and more.. I think the future of steam models is preserved classes, and colourful classes, with the odd sprinklings of obscure and exciting classes, but what after that..?

 

 

 

But there may well come a time when people get bored with the virtual world and start to want stuff they can touch again.

 

Basically, what is collectible is the tiny percentage of any item that has survived in as-new condition whilst the rest of the same things have (actually or metaphorically) crumbled to dust.

 

There are three essential foundations of all collecting, whatever the objects being collected, nostalgia, rarity and condition. Value requires all those. Demand in excess of supply and buyers with (arguably) more money than sense, will do the rest.

 

It doesn't matter that most model trains from the 1970s/80s have been superseded by better versions or that fairly reasonable specimens can (for now) be picked up for peanuts. Indeed, that will have led to more of them being discarded or "converted" and may even accelerate the "junk to treasure" transition for what survives. There are canny people out there quietly buying up mint and boxed Lima or whatever simply because it's easy to find and relatively cheap to acquire today, but it won't be in a few years time. When the slower-witted collectors catch on, the stuff they are buying now will multiply in "value" several times over. 

 

And it also doesn't  matter a fig if the "collectible" object might have been pretty rubbish in the first place....

 

John 

Edited January 18, 2022 by Dunsignalling

[mdvle]

1 hour ago, adb968008 said:

future generations are more virtualistic and less materialistic.

 

Which explains the surge in vinyl music collecting.

 

I think attempting to predict what future generations will want is fraught with danger as we don't know how things are going to develop.

 

Particularly as the following generations get hit by rights holders removing things from their virtual collections.