The Shape of Things To Come

[Glorious NSE]

Are we mentioning smaller manufacturers with fledgeling RTR ranges such as RealTrack models, Flangeway etc??

 

 

[Ravenser]

Couple of notes on the list:

 

Dapol - the ICA silver bullet isn't listed and isn't out yet, so that would now be 2010

Not mentioned is the PBA "Clay Tiger" and Imerys JIA (both via Kernow)

 

Word from another place is the Hornby ZCA's have indeed been dropped.

 

I thought the "class B" TEA from Bachmann was out already? Could be wrong though.

 

Oh, Bachmann's upcoming bogie cement tank still won't be vacuum braked!

 

Are we mentioning smaller manufacturers with fledgeling RTR ranges such as RealTrack models, Flangeway etc??

 

 

Martyn: thanks, I've updated the scoreboard accordingly . Dapol's backlog looks even bigger....

 

 

Small players arguably should be mentioned but I wasn't aware anything much was outstanding in that direct?

[The Stationmaster]

There's an interesting (or possibly worrying) advert in April's 'Model Railroader' from Rapido Trains entitled 'An open letter on the necessary evil of pre-ordeing' which effectively says if you don't pre-order we will either drop or delay the model.

 

They carefully explain their angle on the economics of producing a newly tooled product and then go on to say they can't really afford to carry cash tied up in stock against possible future orders and they consider their investment is better spent on actually producing something they know will be sold.

 

I believe Rapido are a relatively small concern but will this sort of approach gradually spread elsewhere I wonder?

 

From talking to a couple of retailers it is already fairly clear that at least one of the larger manufacturers in the UK market makes sure product goes to the big box shifters and not to smaller retailers if it is likely to be very popular or in limited supply with the smaller concern having to wait for a later batch to be imported. While there is a degree of marketing sense in this approach I can also see a potential downside because smaller businesses will lose out although they pay their bills just as promptly as the big boys and still manage to sell stuff but very often are the ones still likely to have items in stock long after it has flown off the box shifters shelves and have thuis become the ones carrying the financial 'penalty'.

[Neal Ball]

There's an interesting (or possibly worrying) advert in April's 'Model Railroader' from Rapido Trains entitled 'An open letter on the necessary evil of pre-ordeing' which effectively says if you don't pre-order we will either drop or delay the model.

 

They carefully explain their angle on the economics of producing a newly tooled product and then go on to say they can't really afford to carry cash tied up in stock against possible future orders and they consider their investment is better spent on actually producing something they know will be sold.

 

I believe Rapido are a relatively small concern but will this sort of approach gradually spread elsewhere I wonder?.........

 

 

Interesting.... Is this what has happened to the release of the new Hornby Castle? The BR version having been released just before Christmas, the GWR version (Tintagel Castle) is still be find it's way to the shelves. Both versions were originally due in the Autumn / Winter period 2009.

 

I have Tintagel on order with rails, maybe I also need to pre-order the GWR version of the 28xx?

[The Stationmaster]

Interesting.... Is this what has happened to the release of the new Hornby Castle? The BR version having been released just before Christmas, the GWR version (Tintagel Castle) is still be find it's way to the shelves. Both versions were originally due in the Autumn / Winter period 2009.

 

I have Tintagel on order with rails, maybe I also need to pre-order the GWR version of the 28xx?

 

I do wonder Neal. In fact in a post to MREMag - which Simon Kohler seems to study with some care judging by his frequent replies - I have posed a question along those very lines. And yesterday at Abrail I went mad and bought myself 'Earl Cairns' from Replica - with Godfrey kindly pointing out 'that's not the new one', presumably in the expectation that as it was next to 'Ince' I might have picked up the wrong one? Interesting too that he actually had at least two 'Earl Cairns' still on his stall - what does that say for sales (although I do think that 'early crest' is not an attractive livery feature).

 

So yes - some pre-ordering of 28XX (various) and, in my case Hawksworth coaches (one each of all then have a go during exhibitions at picking up the extra ones at box-shifter prices), might be the incentive that's needed.

 

The Hornby announcement of last Friday also seems to fall into a similar category to the Rapido approach, with quite number of things mentioned seemingly reflecting the sort of 'requests' that have emerged via websites. And again Bachmann's announcement today also partially reflects that sort of philospohy - although there are some great more general things such as figures etc.

 

A lot of what is happening with these announcements has made me wonder if we are seeing a side-effect of the recession - with tightly targetted short term marketing (aiming for quick payback) drawing heavily on views expressed over the 'net (and presumably on wish lists)? Which calls for even greater care completing that MREMag poll - maybe I should put 54XX/64XX/74XX for every choice on 'new locos' B)?

[34theletterbetweenB&D]

There's an interesting (or possibly worrying) advert in April's 'Model Railroader' from Rapido Trains entitled 'An open letter on the necessary evil of pre-ordeing' which effectively says if you don't pre-order we will either drop or delay the model.

 

They carefully explain their angle on the economics of producing a newly tooled product and then go on to say they can't really afford to carry cash tied up in stock against possible future orders and they consider their investment is better spent on actually producing something they know will be sold.

 

I believe Rapido are a relatively small concern but will this sort of approach gradually spread elsewhere I wonder? ...

 

There were a few lines in Hornby's 2009 interim report which tells me that Hornby at least have some aspect of this figured into their operation:

 

".. whilst model railway and Scalextric sales fell. This is largely a result of retailers delaying taking inventory ahead of the Christmas period. .."

The implication I read into that was that they don't commit to production orders until some predetermined proportion of the planned batch size is taken up by retailer orders. There may well be some retailers prepared to go on the basis of 'I'll sell XX of those'; but if there are enough retailers who wait for customer orders before placing their stock order, then effectively it is individual customers placing orders that presses the 'go' button on the batch.

 

(There may well be something similar in the 2009 annual report, but MEGO somewhere around the currency derivative trading risk amelioration strategy.)

[Ravenser]

Time to repost an updated scoreboard, as rather a lot has happened in the last 4 months:

 

With Bachmann 2010 programme announced , and various limited edition developments it seems time to update the "scoreboard" once again. I have shuffled outstanding items which must now be considered to have slipped out of 2009, added recent releases/announcements and started hinting at 2011

 

so the list of new goodies in 4mm for the next 2 years now reads:

 

Hornby:

2009 - Schools [released], Standard 4MT [released], Castle [New Year 2010], Clan [released], 395 Javelin [released, Warley], a wagon or two, Pullmans [observation car released, buffet ]. Sapphire decoder [released]

2010 - B17 :both Sandringham and Footballer - (late 2010/early 2011), L1 (late 2010), 28xx + 2884(mid 2010?) 4-VEP original (late 2010??), Mk3 DVT and Mk3 buffet [DVT released] Mk3 Royal Saloons, [ZCAs now dropped] , OTA, KFA container flat, Hawkesworth coaches (5 types)

 

 

Bachmann:

2009 - 150/1 [released], 150/2 [released] 4-CEP [released - Warley], Standard 3MT [released - Warley]. City of Truro - NRM [released]. I must have missed some wagons?

2010 - A2 (first half). Class B TEA, autoballaster, cattle wagon [released], 04/ROD (June-July 2010?), - 105, MPV (may be 2011), 2EPB (2011), new 03, TPO, MBA (early 2010), JPV, IPA.

2011 - Class 70 , Thumper (*Kernow), Derby Lightweight , Johnson/Deeley 3F, Class 350 Desiro, S&DJR 7F 2-8-0, Class 85, OTA, LNER OHV steel High, LNER vans, BAA, FNA

2012 - LMS Ivatt Co-Cos (*Rails)

 

Heljan:

2009 - 17[released], Kestrel [released],

2010 - 14 (*Howes) [Released- end 2009] 15,[ released - Spring] 86 [Released - Ally Pally], 23 (may be 2011) probably no rolling stock

2011 - 4 wheel railbuses W&M, Park Royal, etc, Lion, 28 (*Hattons), class 76 (*Olivias Trains)

2012 - Blue Pullman (*Olivias Trains)

 

Dapol:

2009 - MBA [released]

2010 - 22, multifret [released] , KQA pocket wagon [released], , ?Original Warship(*Kernow - may be 2011), Beattie well tank (*Kernow - Sept?), Sentinel shunter (Y1/Y3 - *Model Rail) Stove R (*Hornby), ICA, PBA (*Kernow) Imerys JIA (*Kernow)

 

Vi- Trains:

Don't hold your breath - any new venture would require development from the ground up, and we have heard nothing new from this manufacturer for well over 12 months

 

Some quite astonishing things have been announced in the last 2 months, and the trend of retailers commissioning new models continues in full spate. If I've missed anything while I've been tied up with work issues , please mention....

[Dave777]

Looks a good update - well done.

 

Amusing to look back at what people were saying about various locos and the chances of them being produced. Look at this prat with his Class 28 feasibility study where he leaned more towards a 'no':

 

http://www.rmweb.co....dpost__p__26394

[Barry Rhys]

Look at this prat with his Class 28 feasibility study where he leaned more towards a 'no':

 

 

Dave777, I thought it was very unreasonable of you to single out this person for such criticism. Especially for such a thoughtful analysis, in spite of the writer's excrutiating naivety. Indeed, I almost pressed the report button.

 

Then I noticed who the writer was...

 

A fellow div, Neil

[Fenman]

Heljan:

2011 - ... class 76 (*Olivias Trains)

 

Great list -- makes me go all tingly.

 

Olivia's Trains' website states that they're doing both a Class 76 and a Class 77.

 

Paul

[MEGair]

Rails of Sheffield in co-operation with Bachmann have just announced the LMS/BR 10000 & 10001 Diesel Twins.

so you can add these to the list.

 

Mark

[34theletterbetweenB&D]

Immediate reaction to the updated list is that Hornby look a bit light on post steam era items, in comparison to their competitors. There are prototypes going begging among electric locos and first generation DMU's; neither of which they have in their range as 'all-new top standard' models (unless I am sadly mistaken). Snapping up one of each for their 2011 announcement, choosing from among the larger and longer lived ideally multiply liveried and popular classes, before someone else bags them, might be a useful move. Course, I am assuming that such unmodelled prototypes exist, such is the hole in my knowledge of the railway from circa 1970 to 1995...

[Ravenser]

Immediate reaction to the updated list is that Hornby look a bit light on post steam era items, in comparison to their competitors. There are prototypes going begging among electric locos and first generation DMU's; neither of which they have in their range as 'all-new top standard' models (unless I am sadly mistaken). Snapping up one of each for their 2011 announcement, choosing from among the larger and longer lived ideally multiply liveried and popular classes, before someone else bags them, might be a useful move. Course, I am assuming that such unmodelled prototypes exist, such is the hole in my knowledge of the railway from circa 1970 to 1995...

 

 

This would mean - a retooled AC electric (they already have cls 86, 87, 90, 91 in the range from old tooling) , and a new Modernisation Plan DMU (104? retooled 101? 120? Suburban unit?)

 

My bet would be on a retooled 90, and possibly a 120 - I agree they need to do something on the first generation DMU front . The Hornby investment has gone on EMUs - Pendolino, 4-VEP, Javelin. The Lima purchase plugged some major gaps in the short term , and the 153 has given them a good contemporary livery item, but first generation needs a boost with some new tooling

[Guest Phil]

This would mean - a retooled AC electric (they already have cls 86, 87, 90, 91 in the range from old tooling) , and a new Modernisation Plan DMU (104? retooled 101? 120? Suburban unit?)

 

My bet would be on a retooled 90, and possibly a 120 - I agree they need to do something on the first generation DMU front . The Hornby investment has gone on EMUs - Pendolino, 4-VEP, Javelin. The Lima purchase plugged some major gaps in the short term , and the 153 has given them a good contemporary livery item, but first generation needs a boost with some new tooling

 

And to repay the development costs, then reap more profits from the 8'6" motor bogie in the ex Lima railcars.

 

I think the next DMU ought to be a long frame version. Personal preference is the Derby HD (116) but would also purchase a couple of Swindon Cross Country units (120) if they appeared in the marketplace.

[Ravenser]

I agree - as with the 153 , the drive unit would be the new "Limby" motor bogie.

 

This might militate against class 120 - I think they were 3 car units? Although the 3 car 101 runs fine. And logically the commercially attractive approach would be something that could be offered in 2 or 3 car flavours - a 2 car unit being a cheaper buy for the customer, and therefore a better seller , especially in these times

[Pennine MC]

This might militate against class 120 - I think they were 3 car units? ... And logically the commercially attractive approach would be something that could be offered in 2 or 3 car flavours - a 2 car unit being a cheaper buy for the customer, and therefore a better seller , especially in these times

 

Not such a problem - as just one example, power twin 120s were used on the Central Wales line. WR Modernisation Plan DMU orders were delivered 'short trailered', with the additional power cars being intended as maintenance spares. As the Region went on to be one of the more organised with its formations (with sets generally going to shops all of a piece), the 'spares' were used as sets in their own right.

[Guest Phil]

This might militate against class 120 - I think they were 3 car units? ... And logically the commercially attractive approach would be something that could be offered in 2 or 3 car flavours - a 2 car unit being a cheaper buy for the customer, and therefore a better seller , especially in these times.

 

Not such a problem - as just one example, power twin 120s were used on the Central Wales line. WR Modernisation Plan DMU orders were delivered 'short trailered', with the additional power cars being intended as maintenance spares. As the Region went on to be one of the more organised with its formations (with sets generally going to shops all of a piece), the 'spares' were used as sets in their own right.

 

Another thing to consider with regard to Cl 120s in latter days - most gained a Met Camm trailer car to replace the Swindon built vehicle.

 

With the Met Camm trailer available from the catalogue Hornby could offer this combo as an "additional retail opportunity".

 

Central Wales units would need the additional "car headlight" between the windscreens which wouldn't be a real problem to Hornby I'd imagine.

 

 

 

Hark at me though. It's almost as if Hornby are going to announce the Swindon Cross Country unit in 2011 !!!! :rolleyes:

[Ravenser]

If they were to consider sticking a Met Camm centre trailer in there, they'd need to retool the underframe far enough to get NEM pockets on it.

 

The 101 motorised car has them (evidently a new moulding for the Limby motor bogie) - the other 2 cars don't

 

It does sound as if the 120s might be a serious candidate

[34theletterbetweenB&D]

In light of the recent spate of commissioning all-new OO RTR models, are there any further large model railway retailers who might be inclined to join this party?

 

List of retailers active in commissioning all-new OO RTR items in the past five years or thereabouts with status:

 

Graduate section, Murphy's, NRM, Hattons, Modelzone/Signal Box;

 

Candidate section, Kernow, Model Rail, Olivias Trains, Rails of Sheffield.

 

Inevitably I will have missed an organisation or three off the list somewhere, but you diligent fellows will put that right.

[Guest dilbert]

And not forgetting the Hornby Magazine Stove R (due eoy) ?..dilbert

[Ravenser]

Time to update the scoreboard, as quite a few things are now out and release dates for others are becoming clearer

 

so the list of new goodies in 4mm for the next 2 years now reads:

 

Hornby:

2009 - Schools [released], Standard 4MT [released], Castle [New Year 2010], Clan [released], 395 Javelin [released, Warley], a wagon or two, Pullmans [observation car released, buffet ]. Sapphire decoder [released]

2010 - B17 :both Sandringham and Footballer - (late 2010/early 2011), L1 [released Oct 2010], 28xx + 2884(late 2010?) 4-VEP original (late 2010??), Mk3 DVT and Mk3 buffet [DVT released] Mk3 Royal Saloons, [ZCAs now dropped] , OTA, KFA container flat, Hawkesworth coaches (5 types) [released mid 2010]

 

 

Bachmann:

2009 - 150/1 [released], 150/2 [released] 4-CEP [released - Warley], Standard 3MT [released - Warley]. City of Truro - NRM [released]. I must have missed some wagons?

2010 - A2 (Nov/Dec). Class B TEA, autoballaster, cattle wagon [released], 04/ROD [ released June-July 2010], 105 [released Sept 2010], MPV (may be 2011), 2EPB (2011), new 03 [released Oct 2010], TPO [released], MBA (early 2010) [released], JPA [released], IPA.

2011 - Class 70 (first half), Thumper (*Kernow), Derby Lightweight , Johnson/Deeley 3F, Class 350 Desiro, S&DJR 7F 2-8-0 (Dec/Jan), Class 85, OTA, LNER OHV steel High (early 2011), LNER vans (early 2011), BAA, FNA (early 2011), Swindonised ROD, retooled 40 (late 2011-early 2012)

2012 - LMS Ivatt Co-Cos (*Rails), Blue Pullman

 

Heljan:

2009 - 17[released], Kestrel [released],

2010 - 14 (*Howes) [Released- end 2009] 15,[ released - Spring] 86 [Released - Ally Pally], 23 (may be 2011) probably no rolling stock

2011 - 4 wheel railbuses W&M, Park Royal, etc, Lion, 28 (*Hattons), class 76 +77 (*Olivias Trains)

 

Dapol:

2009 - MBA [released]

2010 - 22 (end 2010-early 2011), multifret [released] , KQA pocket wagon [released], , ?Original Warship(*Kernow - may be 2011), Beattie well tank (*Kernow - Dec?), Sentinel shunter (Y1/Y3 - *Model Rail) (early 2011?) Stove R (*Hornby) (Nov 2010), ICA, PBA (*Kernow) Imerys JIA (*Kernow) IOA [released]. 25kV catenary [released]

2011 LSWR O2 (*Kernow) Bullied 1-Co-Co-1 (*Kernow)

 

Vi- Trains:

Don't hold your breath - any new venture would require development from the ground up, and we have heard nothing new from this manufacturer for well over 2 years

 

Bachmann have made strong inroads on their backlog: very little looks like slipping from 2010 into 2011, and a number of the 2011 rolling stock items look as if they will appear early in the year. Hornby will clearly have a couple of December releases and should largely complete this year's programme this year

 

Dapol have released relatively little in recent months, but the dam may break shortly with the well tank, Sentinel and Stove R (all commissions) appearing in the next few months. Heljan have been very quiet since spring, but they have a substantial number of announcements likely to be fulfilled in 2011.

 

It looks like new releases over the next 12 months will be quite extensive

[34theletterbetweenB&D]

There's twins of the 'The Twins'. Dapol have a commission from Hattons for the LMS Ivatt Co-Co 'Twins'. Announced as pre-production samples to be on show at Warley this November, first models released during February 2011.

[Oakydoke]

Ravenser, you could add Real Track Models.

They've got the FLA in development and have plans for the Class 143 and 144 Pacers.

[34theletterbetweenB&D]

And the tidal wave continues with classes 52, 21 and 29 from Dapol, Heljan to offer a class 128 and DP2. Some contemporary wagons from Dapol too.

 

Hornby have gone for a contemporary item but not diesel or electric: Tornado. 2011 Release list dominated by steam era: B1, Brighton Belle, Gresley non-corridors and corridor full brake, 4W wagons.

 

Just Bachmann to announce now. Very noticeable that their 'announced' list is dominated by post-steam items, the only steam loco to come that we know about is the Johnson 3F. Hopefully more small steam types and stock in the March announcement.