Frustration - so much so often.

[Catkins]

I know a trader (not railway models) in a small town, who has managed to trade over the last two years - that anyone in the UK will agree is not the most affluent of times - but the thing that has killed her business if the landlord wanted a FIVE year lease signing, which she could not afford to do, although she did tell me that she would have signed for a year.

 

From my viewpoint on the side of all this, I would say that the manufacturers are making it hard for a trader to have consistant cash-flow, that in turn knocks the traders "credit rating" with the bank, as the balance will go from yellow to red to red to yellow to, well you get the idea, as the trader will still have to pay monthly costs such as rates, utilities and rent, and any wages. Then a new business bank manager, or leasing terms comes into the equation, and then the situation changes and the weakest link suffers - which then affects a wider community, until it reaches the strongest in the link, and it MIGHT affect them.

 

We, as consumers don't even get to see the edited highlights from all of the above, and should something affect us we adapt to the change.

[Andy Y]

Discussion of the topic's subject matter with Bachmann has resulted in me drawing up a list of products issued this year by month (approximate as it relates to the dates when initial batches for review arrived) to look at the spread; I've attached the excel file if anyone wants to look at it and it can be observed that there's a reasonable throughput of models through the course of the year but with Nov/Dec for Warley/Christmas and September (N Gauge Show) seeing new releases rather than 'run of the mill' stock.

 

Two factors do combine to result in this effect.

• Models announced in a March with an approximate 18 month timeframe with a bit of slip approach the Nov/Dec period
  
• A manufacturer keen to ensure they do have products available for the busiest show and peak trading period.
  

Bachmann

• do support a dealer network directly
  
• don't supply wholesale
  
• do give the same price, terms and early settlement discounts to all retailers
  
• don't sell directly through their website
  

They do appreciate that this has been an unprecedented year with more manufacturers than ever bringing releases into the hobby in addition to commissioned releases and emphasise that the items that started to become available during last week and the weekend were initial airfreighted part batches of stock with the balance to arrive in coming weeks via normal shipping methods. Hopefully this means that customers will be able to obtain stock from their retailers over coming weeks if it's been ordered and the retailer is in a position to accept incoming stock.

 

 

Bachmann Releases.xls

[Kenton]

 

In our particular part of the allegedly affluent Thames Valley retail rents and the demands of greedy landlords for ever higher rents and long leases

£80K is cheap.

 

8 years ago I was paying £15K rent for 450sq ft of not particularly well appointed office, no amenity, on a second floor. On top of that nearly £2.5K pa business rates and well over £3K in "service" which amounted to water rates. On top of that you had to pay for rubbish collection, not free to business, and a cleaner. That is before the normal utility costs of phones, broadband and electricity. By the time to manage to squash in a few employees with all their overheads and just try employing someone round these parts on minimum wage. All that has to come out of profits before you can even dream of paying yourself.

 

Rents were going up by 5-10% even then as most landlords were London institutions who paid themselves banker's salaries and employed expensive lawyers to add trap clauses to the agreements.

 

I sold up and went back to consulting.

[Ozexpatriate]

Discussion of the topic's subject matter with Bachmann has resulted in me drawing up a list of products issued this year by month (approximate as it relates to the dates when initial batches for review arrived) to look at the spread; I've attached the excel file if anyone wants to look at it and it can be observed that there's a reasonable throughput of models through the course of the year but with Nov/Dec for Warley/Christmas and September (N Gauge Show) seeing new releases rather than 'run of the mill' stock.

Here's the 00 worksheet from Andy's spreadsheet dropped into a pivot chart. (In my first version I did make at least one mistake, but I think this one is right.)

 

The new releases are in blue.

[The Stationmaster]

Here's the 00 worksheet from Andy's spreadsheet dropped into a pivot chart (hopefully I didn't make any mistakes):

The new releases are in blue.

And in business terms it makes a lot of sense with the 'dead' post Christmas period showing a low level of deliveries although surprisingly April is clear of new releases when once upon a time we might have associated with the 'Easter show' effect. It would be more interesting from Andy's original point to see how it stacks up in cash terms although that depends obviously on the size of orders and would need a bit of extrapolation (or 'reasonable guesstimate') to turn it into those sorts of numbers.

 

The year end loading for new items would also perhaps look more stark in numbers terms as I got the impression that it tended to be 'bigger ticket' items coming out like that in the list Andy posted - it might of course be an atypical year but I think not. Overall however Bachmann do show an interesting pattern across the year with their peak coming mid-year (albeit more likely lower ticket items?). And, as already noted, one manufacturer - especially with a pattern like this - does not illustrate the whole of the problem; I wonder how co-oprerative others would be in giving similar data?

[Andy Y]

Thanks Oz!

 

Aside from the spread it's interesting to note there's been over 200 lines (old and new) released during the year in OO and 160+ in N; that's some going but comes back to the opening post; can we really expect a retailer to be stocking all that (plus accessories, other ranges and a very long list of etceteras) and can a 'normal' retailer expect to do so?

[Ozexpatriate]

The year end loading for new items would also perhaps look more stark in numbers terms as I got the impression that it tended to be 'bigger ticket' items coming out like that in the list Andy posted - it might of course be an atypical year but I think not. Overall however Bachmann do show an interesting pattern across the year with their peak coming mid-year (albeit more likely lower ticket items?).

Mike, your point is relevant. In Andy's spreadsheet (and the graph in my post) a count of 'one' could be a wagon, a coach, a locomotive or a train set. Each released item is counted the same way.

 

The shape of the graph could (and I think would) look different if instead of using the count of items released, I used the total list price of items released per month. That data wasn't in the spreadsheet, so I didn't.

[Andy Y]

That data wasn't in the spreadsheet, so I didn't.

 

I inadvertently removed the RRP column but it's largely superfluous without a quantity ordered to place against a value.

[Guest dilbert]

Just to add some historical context to the Bachmann numbers, Attached is a synopsis of the items that appeared in the Bachmann catalogue for 1990 (for food lovers this has been done in a pie chart).

 

 

Hornby's catalogue got gradually fatter from the mid 90s onwards after the completion of the ex Airfix/mainline tooling transfer from Dapol and the subsequent shift of manufacturing to China... dilbert

[Catkins]

Discussion of the topic's subject matter with Bachmann,

• do support a dealer network directly
  
• don't supply wholesale
  
• do give the same price, terms and early settlement discounts to all retailers
  
• don't sell directly through their website
  

They do appreciate that this has been an unprecedented year with more manufacturers than ever bringing releases into the hobby

 

It is very nice to see a manufacturer speaking with such openness as (the full posting) shows.

I would like to say "BRAVO" to Bachmann, and I would also like to say "BRAVO" to Andy.

[deltic56]

Do Bachmann offer the same terms to everybody I find that very hard to believe.

[Andy Y]

And your evidence to the contrary is?

[mike tugsandsheds]

Do Bachmann offer the same terms to everybody I find that very hard to believe.

 

No, I think the thing is that some shops sell close to or actual RRP (Modelzone, My local Shop, and some smaller shops in my area)

 

Others however pass some savings on between their price from Bachmann and the RRP such as Waltons of Altrincham, Arcadia, Hattons Rails etc

 

And so some savings are achieved. I see no reason not to believe Bachamann and this could be where this comment may have eminated from

 

i.e. Different shops sell the same thing for different prices

 

It really is down to the retailer.

[Revolution Mike]

From my point of view it feels like a lot of models (in N) have come all at once (or within a few weeks) from both Farish/Bachmann and Dapol. As Andy says, that must make it very difficult for the retailer (as well as the customer).

 

In N over the last few weeks we have had:

 

101, 03, A1s, 4CEPs, Metalair PCAs, 121s, more 86s, HSTs, 26s

 

All incredibly welcome but severely wallet bashing (yes, OK I could have planned my budgetting better, but hey ho!).

 

Cheers, Mike

[Trains4U]

Just to add some historical context to the Bachmann numbers, Attached is a synopsis of the items that appeared in the Bachmann catalogue for 1990 (for food lovers this has been done in a pie chart).

 

 

Hornby's catalogue got gradually fatter from the mid 90s onwards after the completion of the ex Airfix/mainline tooling transfer from Dapol and the subsequent shift of manufacturing to China... dilbert

 

I would imagine that if you took say, the 1995 catalogues of Bachmann, Hornby, Lima and Graham Farish the combined number of items available would be smaller in number than either of the current Hornby or Bachmann Branchline (OO) catalogues.

 

And many items would be re-released year on year, with the same running number or livery.

 

I guess the real question is, has the overall spend in the hobby declined significantly over the last twenty years?, and if so, can the breadth of stock currently being produced remain viable for the manufacturers in the quantities being produced?

 

The problem of a retailer being unable to pay for stock can be remedied by the retailer cutting the orders to manageable levels, but what then for the manufacturers with warehouses full of stock awaiting a buyer?

 

The Bachmann website is very useful in gauging the current availablity of models. The trend of purchases has changed significantly in the last 18 months - If a model such as the class 70 had been released in 2006, it would have sold out in a matter of days at Bachmann, if not completely pre-sold. - as it is, there is a version from the initial batch still available after several months.

 

This is no fault of Bachmann, they have obviously produced based upon the anticipated demand, but this demand has changed significantly since they placed their production plan with the factory, and this is just a single item to illustrate the point, the same is true of sound engines.

 

How many products are sharing this scenario across the manufacturers, filling warehouse space, and how many products are currently in the pipeline that will also be affected and compound the problem for those older slow-moving lines.

 

Time to slow down at the factory perhaps?

[deltic56]

And your proof is?????

And your evidence to the contrary is?

 

And your proof is????

[Andy Y]

The word of the manufacturer and good relationships with several retailers. Now stop being stupid and derailing the topic with speculative and potentially damaging silliness.

[S.A.C Martin]

Edit: Trash please.

[m0rris]

Is this not the effect of modern consumerism on the modelling world? The idea that it is your right to XYZ rather than thinking.... aren't I lucky that I do have ABC but its a shame not to have XYZ.

 

Its interesting to note that in the 1960s/70s the Hornby catalogue was the bible of modern model railway equipment. Today the catalogue is the size of the bible and yet is filled with models that make it worthless as a bible of modern model railway stock.

 

I think we have, to some extent, a perfect storm brewing:

1) Bachmann is moving in on the UK market. I hear you say I've had my Bachmann's for years, but it is only recently that you could buy a trainset aimed at a child from Bachmann as oppposed to just locos. This has resulted in the duplications of models and ideas - a la B1 and you can get Collieries, Stations, Cars, and coaling towers from both ranges.

 

2) Livery, and livery froth. Today we see a massive range of liveries on the network and this effects the customer and the retailer. My old LMS the Bath Model Centre bought about 5 years ago (well I think it was that long ago) the Cotswold Rail class 47 from Vitrains and the Cotswold rail 08 from Hornby. In terms of their diesel stock this is probably around 2/25ths of their visible stock. Since then Cotswold; sold their 08s and renamed themselves Advenza leading to new liveries. Nobody is modelling 2006/7, they model today or yester decade, so that market is gone and they are left with over £100 worth of stock that is useless.

 

A final note is that the LMS is vital to the manufacturer and to the hobby. As a kid I got a trainset, pretty standard. My dad for some unbeknown reason bought me Railway modeller (January 2000 to be precise!) from there there was a nutshell for my passion to develop it was helped by the fact that I could save up my money and go to Bath Model Centre and later Howes and Osbournes with £10 in my pocket and longingly gaze through glass at different wagons and carriages before buying.... not looking endlessly at pictures on ehattons.com. It gave me contact with the models in the real world. As a result I buy most of my first hand Airfix from LMSs as I want to support them and its the same with my remote control cars (I haven't bought much railway stuff availible in the high street for a while).

[Guest dilbert]

 

I would imagine that if you took say, the 1995 catalogues of Bachmann, Hornby, Lima and Graham Farish the combined number of items available would be smaller in number than either of the current Hornby or Bachmann Branchline (OO) catalogues.

 

And many items would be re-released year on year, with the same running number or livery.

 

I guess the real question is, has the overall spend in the hobby declined significantly over the last twenty years?, and if so, can the breadth of stock currently being produced remain viable for the manufacturers in the quantities being produced?

 

 

There are probably several answers to this but would suspect whilst the number of catalogue items has increased, the quantity of a line item batch has also decreased within a given year. Reruns when all stock is accounted for, tend to appear with a different number/livery/other options. With more choice, then decisions on what to purchase beome more refined.

 

Has the overall spend in the hobby declined significantly in the last twenty years? Cost of living is rising higher that salary levels, but overall ATM, there is no signficant spend reduction from my perspective re. the hobby. In the past it has been possible to adjust the difference by cutting back on commodity items. However, there is only so much you can do when recent announcements such as energy prices receiving significant hikes, VAT and other public service charges like local rates increase etc.. as there are other committments such as mortgage & feeding the family push the hobby down the priority list. Spend will be lowered in 2012, that is certain - I don't see any radical change to the econmic situation.

 

 

The problem of a retailer being unable to pay for stock can be remedied by the retailer cutting the orders to manageable levels, but what then for the manufacturers with warehouses full of stock awaiting a buyer?

 

Unless the manufacturer absorbs the cost of storage plus cashflow (and this doesn't come cheaply), then these will get passed on thru the foodchain.. This topic to a certain extent does cross into the 'pre-ordering' thread. If everyone was to pre-order say, five identical items with five different retailers and then pick and choose which product/vendor to select when items arrive for sale, then the whole situation becomes ridiculous.

 

Maybe retailers should seriously look at a deposit for pre-ordering, and subject to T&Cs, it the pre-order isn't taken up, then it is forfeited. If the punter doesn't accept, the punter should look elsewhere.

 

Accrue to spend, spend what you can afford/commit, but avoid taking everyone else down to the casino...dilbert

[The Stationmaster]

 

Without wishing to be a harbinger of doom, unfortunately, I think we are likely to see things get a good deal worse with significant attrition in the travel and leisure sectors of the economy.

I don't know how it's been this time round but in past 'recessions' hobby spending has usually held up well or increased because it is probably seen as representing better value for the use of diminishing 'spare' cash than the alternatives of, say, expensive hoidays. This time round it will be increasingly different because the squeeze and inflation are hitting at basic spending rather than discretionary spending thus reducing money available for the latter - in theory - and we don't yet know what that will mean (but we can guess).

 

So probably the future is less money chasing more goods and larger model shop etc stocks (with the latter also suffering from dumping of surplus stock by one large manufacturer leading to existing stock being undercut as the surplus stuff hits the market). What's the answer? Well possibly less messing about with new liveries every few months (but would that harm sales by not having variants and keeping up with the times?) which would help to reduce initial volume of stock and manufacturers' costs. Spreading over the year is, again, an obvious one with targetting of release dates outside the year end scramble. And overall adjustment to a different buying pattern with the manufacturers downsizing total volume and thinking a lot more carefully about their marketing. I suppose what this really means is asking how many new 'whatevers' the market can sustain in a year and looking carefully at where the strongest market areas remain. The latter is of course something retailers can do based on customer interest and sales although they still have the potential problem of trying to satisfy every market segment - which is where 'fewer liveries' might come in.

[deltic56]

I can see the day coming when PROPOSED new releases will be annouced and these may or may not be made depending on orders from the retailers. Some of the major continental manufacteurs use this method. I have known a new model take at least 4 years for a model from ROCO to appear.

 

If you go back to the 70`s the Tri-ang catalogue stayed the same for years and no one complained we just got on with it. Now a days people froth at the new annoucements and then ask Whats next ? when the latest annoucements have`nt been released. As Trains 4 U say a lot of retailers have reduced their orders I certainley have and will be much more careful next year.

 

Although the standard of models have improved 200% over the years we still moan may be one day we will log on and find people praising models and releases instead of trashing them

[Ozexpatriate]

I would imagine that if you took say, the 1995 catalogues of Bachmann, Hornby, Lima and Graham Farish the combined number of items available would be smaller in number than either of the current Hornby or Bachmann Branchline (OO) catalogues.

I have compiled steam locomotive data from 2000 to 2011. From 2003, Hornby advertised an average of 91 ±10 or so (DC operated) different locomotive liveries/running numbers in their annual catalogue. These fluctuated each year with a max = 102 in 2005, and a min = 77 (not counting 7 DCC with sound) in 2010.

 

Bachmann quanities have increased relatively steadily from about 53 steam locomotive liveries/running numbers in 2000 to 85 (including DCC) in 2011.

 

From 1995, I would say there has been a considerable increase in the total made available each year.