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Heavy rain in Devon - flooding on the railways


Captain Kernow
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The captains point about the reliance on the expert is actually reliance on the model

 

And not just weather forecasting. A couple of years ago I was asked no requested to apply for a forecasting role in supply because of my ability to forecast our sales/ shipments reasonably well. I refused simply because the person I would work for was a genius at mathematical models Whereas I like to use alternative sources of information to validate and modify the forecast. I knew that if I took the job we would be in conflict with him as he would be stating but the model says sales of xyz to abc will go up whereas I would be saying but they have just announced job cuts so demand will be down. The model is never perfect and reliance on the algorithms is only as good as the variables considered.

 

And that's what you need on the weather forecasting in these situations. Whilst the model says its 75% likely that the rain will cease in the hour the reality is "Guys it's p..ssing down and it's as black as night out there and my money is on the 25% whatever the model says".

 

 

Colin

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The captains point about the reliance on the expert is actually reliance on the model

 

 

In this case, the expert I would have liked NR to rely on was the local guy, and yes, the 'official forecaster' was the one relying on the computer model.

 

NR has a similar computer-generated forecast for the Sea Wall, but the difference there is that the main purpose of this model was to ensure that we deployed staff to the Sea Wall in good time, and also gave the TOCs a bit of warning. The forecast model itself would never be used to actually initiate any change in the Method of Working trains along the Sea Wall. ALL such decisions were (and still are) left to the experienced NR man in charge on site, who is (by definition of the role) an experienced PW person from the local gang.

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Making a more general comment on the railway situation down here..... Whoopee......the Chancellor will be re-announcing a re-announcement about the £10m to be spent on yet more resilience studies. Two local MPs  (Labour and Conservative) have implied that 'enough is enough' with all these studies and just get on with it. According to the Teignbridge Conservative MP the money that was promised for Cowley Bridge still hasn't materialized.

 

When a question about all our problems was asked in The House by one of the SW MPs, a ministerial response was that " there might be a consultancy document" about it all. Give us strength you ministerial morons.

 

The last straw was the contempt shown by Number 10 to a mixed delegation of our MPs to Downing Street who were kept waiting outside in the rain and told that the size of placards that they had with them were 'not allowed in Downing Street', This apparently is a new ruling by this PM that only A4 size may be used. 

 

As l commented earlier 'they' don't seem to give a s*** about the SW Peninsula. A damned disgrace.

 

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Just seen the NR helicopter currently assessing the line, hovering above the tracks on the Tarka Line west of Crediton.

Well, as John has said the Barnstaple line itself has reopened, albeit with speed restrictions, perhaps they're giving lifts to those with urgent connections, say at Birmingham New Street!

Edited by Captain Kernow
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Well, as John has said the Barnstaple line itself has reopened, albeit with speed restrictions, perhaps they're giving lifts to those with urgent connections, say at Birmingham New Street!

On a rather selfish note - I was rather hoping it will all be sorted before the weekend coz I thinking of going to Warley.

 

Not aware of any services running until later pm according to the GWR app details as of 09.25 update, other than local Stagecoach services "when available " .

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On a rather selfish note - I was rather hoping it will all be sorted before the weekend coz I thinking of going to Warley.

If the Barnstaple line is open now, and the main line reopens at 0400 tomorrow morning, I'd say you'll be 'Right Away', matey!

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If the Barnstaple line is open now, and the main line reopens at 0400 tomorrow morning, I'd say you'll be 'Right Away', matey!

Thanks Tim, I'm hoping it will be.

Do you know for certain that the Barny line is now open ?

Cheers

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Only what John said (was it on the other thread in the 'Prototype' section?), that he'd heard it on Radio Devon this morning.

Ah! Ok thank you, I'll wet my finger and stick it out of the window later to see what's occurring.

Only asking coz I've run out of milk and need to go shopping this morning ! :)

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GWR site is now saying repairs will be completed on the mainline not before 16:00 today. I'm hoping this means before 18:18 which is when I'm supposed to pull into EXD!

 

At least it looks good for the Warley trip at the weekend. Now just have to hope the Eurostar runs on time today!

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Looks very fluid to start with as all assets will all be mixed up.
 

Looking at RTT it's not showing any Barnstaple origins or destinations for the entire day though?

On the main line there is a STP 13.36 2U20 Exeter to Cardiff via Tiverton showing which might be the first one north, followed by 1A85 at 13.58?



 

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  • 1 year later...

Thank you for the link John, I missed it last night. Lets hope it keeps us moving should there be further liquid sunshine here again such as we've had in the past.

 

G

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