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Hornby supply and demand gremlins.


brushman47544

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These are the release dates I have had from Hattons for Hornby R3119 which I ordered last March.

 

LMS Duchess Of Abercorn - No Smoke Deflectors. Due 3rd Qtr 2012

this item will arrive with us on or after Friday 14th September 2012

this item will arrive with us on or after Friday 2nd November 2012

this item will arrive with us on or after Monday 1st April 2013

this item will arrive with us on or after Monday 29th April 2013

and today came...

this item will arrive with us on or after Monday 27th May 2013

 

Good job there are no penalty payments for late arrivals...

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Hornby appear to have sent some Epsom salts to China. Hattons have just emailed me to say the Maunsell open 3rd in Southern livery may now be in stock later this month - beating the last estimate (from them) by about 3 months.

Looks like being an expensive month, 2-Bils, Thumpers and now open Maunsell stock.

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Hornby appear to have sent some Epsom salts to China. Hattons have just emailed me to say the Maunsell open 3rd in Southern livery may now be in stock later this month - beating the last estimate (from them) by about 3 months.

 

I have just seen on my Hornby trade web site   ....R3177....   now delivery to Hornby..moved from 5 March to 5 July 2013......   and R3161  moved from 5 March to 25 March ...

I give up ....I am trying to run a business and keep customers informed ....this is just unacceptable ...

 

Regards Trevor .... :nono:

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Well at least Hornby seem to be doing more to keep us informed even if it is not the news we wanted to hear. It has been well documented that they have said that the supply problems will still take some time to resolve and the assumption has been that it may be down to their old supplier. The new one seems to be improving the situation. 

I think someone from Hornby said re the 2-Bil that as they were in production before they were announced then setting production figures was difficult. They obviously underestimated but - and this my be an indication of better supply - they are doing another run of some which will be out later this year.

I feel for dealers though who appear to have had a raw deal over the Modelzone issue and their pre-supply. I then lose it a little bit when I see my local dealer advertising DCC fitted ones at a price higher than that advertised on the Hornby website. With a Modelzone down the road I don't understand that logic.

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It now appears that the July date is for a second issue of R3177....and another issue of R3161 possibly with another running number as an "A" variant is being done .....so famine to feast(or glut) in 6 months ????  I wish Hornby would issue a statement and clear this mess up ...

 

Regards Trevor .... :scratchhead:

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It now appears that the July date is for a second issue of R3177....and another issue of R3161 possibly with another running number as an "A" variant is being done .....so famine to feast(or glut) in 6 months ????  I wish Hornby would issue a statement and clear this mess up ...

 

Regards Trevor .... :scratchhead:

I think the situation for retailers is atrocious - quite how they can be expected to produce a reliable business plan (which their bank manager might well demand) in these sort of circumstances is beyond me.  I know some retailers were a lot less than happy when they saw expected pre-Christmas sales fro the GW 8 coupled tanks vanish into the far blue yonder.

 

As a customer I am prepared to wait but my livelihood does not depend on cash flow from model railway etc sales and I don't think we, or Hornby, should overlook those who are in that position.

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I was reliably informed that my BR 2BIL pre-order placed with a famous box shifter of great integrity would be fulfilled in June..

So I successfully searched for one on the web - I now have an expensive 2BIL R3162 arriving today complete with an unwanted chip on board....

However...

This very morning I receive a notification from a famous box-shifter that a 2BIL is now winging its way to me, my pre-order fufilled.

 

So I will now end up with a surfeit of 2BILs - and a financial headache...

 

I do wish that Hornby and their retailers would get together in a Hotel somewhere and not leave until these supply problems are ironed out..

 

Who knows what is going on and why? It is all a very confusing hall of mirrors methinks...

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I do wish that Hornby and their retailers would get together in a Hotel somewhere and not leave until these supply problems are ironed out..

 

Unfortunately they have done that and it seems that that was indeed a part of the problem.

 

Earlier posts have suggested that Hornby called in some traders and informed them that they had sold 80% of the production run and at least one box shifter had not placed his order.

 

If true, then that is a serious breach of competition rules since it could incite those traders present to order more in advance of the high volume sellers.  This then creates an effective buying cartel, that Hornby have then reinforced (against a background of known shortage) by selling the first tranche through their concessionaires.

 

If my pre-ordered (and as yet not to be re-run) single example does not end up getting delivered then I will very seriously consider contacting the competition office.

 

Someone asked, "What will that achieve?"

 

Well 1, it will stop this kind of behaviour in the market place.

2.  Hornby could be forced to ensure that all demands are met (which would force a re-run of the SR versions) and if that happened, I would then get my model.

 

Given my location I have little option but to order from so called box-shifters.

 

In fairness however I have to say that Hornby are not alone in such examples of failed forecasting - Bachmann had the same problems with their Wainwright C.  The shortage I can forgive, the apparent actions taken around that shortage seem to be unforgivable and of dubious legality.

 

 

 

EDIT:  For the detracters of Hattons who have reduced their multple item orders to just 1 - tis is exactly what competition law expects when faced with what effectively is a force majeur situation on supply.  So disappointing though it undoubtedly is they would seem to be playing the game fairly.

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To be fair, it should be quite easy to sell the unwanted one and recoup your additional outlay.

I agree, yes I could but living, in Canada makes that quite unlikely :)

Not only are 2Bils unheard of here, any British buyer would not pay the exhorbitant Canadian postage costs.

My supplier was unable to remove the VAT and I am looking at customs fees, duties and taxes when it is picked up.

To recoup the cost I would need to resell it for over 160 pounds plus postage and who in their right mind would pay that?

(Especially as I was not really in my right mind when I bought it... I did not wish to wait so paid the freight...)

 

And really I do not wish to complain - having Two 2BILS to run  will be quite a delight.

The real problem is in having to second guess what is going to happen everytime there is a new release.

It's like playing a shadowy game where the rules keep changing and can seriously backfire on you even if careful.

I am fortunate in that I can absorb the cost.

But for many people their budget has to be delicately tuned, and their delight in the hobby/avocation can be impaired by this strange behaviour.

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.

 

Hornby have a bit of a problem deciding on the size of the second batch of 2-BILS.

 

ASSUMING that it has a new running number (?) then it will attractive to Southern fans who want to run a pair together.  However, how many of the pre-orders were genuine buyers and how many were either e-bay sellers seeing a shortage and hoping to make a killing, or people who having been interested in January/February will have changed their focus to another item by June ?

 

( Similarly, Bachmann must be thinking hard on the size of the next batch of pre-grouping C-class. )

 

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I think all of this comes back to the matter of trust in the hobby - at all levels, i.e. manufacturer, wholesaler (where that such process exists), retailer and us - the end purchasers.  If manufacturers make limited runs of models they should say so - and if, as with the 2 BIL, that limited run precedes any stage of the customer ordering process it should be made clear right the way down to us that the item is being sold 'subject to availability'.  Similarly if a retailer is late putting in their order - as allegedly happened with the 2 BIL - that is down to them, not to other retailers to suffer what they have ordered (and could have sold) being reduced - someone I know of lost 44 sales because his order was made subject to 'allocation', i.e. rationing.

 

It is beholden on us to play fair with the people we buy from - if we pre-order then we do our level best to honour that although I know that some retailers work on an identifiable percentage for  pre-orders that never turn into hard cash when the model arrives.  And if manufacturers are going to make and supply according to pre-orders that should also be clear - and honoured.

 

I'm not going to repeat or even bother to link again my earlier points on the whole matter of pre-ordering but the 2 BIL debacle - which even before Christmas was fairly obviously going to happen (apart from the direct/Modelzone approach which later emerged) - has, I think, brought things to clear notice.  Seemingly at various stages in the path to us, the end purchasers, various people have not played the game with us - retailers took pre-orders they knowingly could not guarantee and didn't tell us that, and one large retailer who allegedly fail to order in a timely manner only had their order (or whatever part of it) met by reducing orders which other retailers had placed punctually (causing them to lose sales).   The model railway hobby and business is almost certainly suffering from the overall economic situation as the amount of money around for discretionary spending on such things as hobbies is becoming tight or difficult for many people.  To make that situation even worse by the various things which seem to have happened in this example seems to me to be jumping from the frying pan into the fire, and our hobby does not need it.

 

BTW I make no criticism of the number of units manufactured - I don't know why they chose that number but I'm sure it was one which returned a reasonable profit on investment and that is what they are in business to do.

 

edit to correct typo

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I think all of this comes back to the matter of trust in the hobby - at all levels, i.e. manufacturer, wholesaler (where that such process exists), retailer and us - the end purchasers.  If manufacturers make limited runs of models they should say so - and if, as with the 2 BIL, that limited run precedes any stage of the customer ordering process it should be made clear right the way down to us that the item is being sold 'subject to availability'.  Similarly if a retailer is late putting in their order - as allegedly happened with the 2 BIL - that is down to them, not to other retailers to suffer what they have ordered (and could have sold) being reduced - someone I know of lost 44 sales because his order was made subject to 'allocation', i.e. rationing.

 

It is beholden on us to play fair with the people we buy from - if we pre-order then we do our level best to hour that although I know that some retailers work on an identifiable pre-orders that never turn into hard cash when the model arrives.  And if manufacturers are going to make and supply according to pre-orders that should also be clear - and honoured.

 

I'm not going to repeat or even bother to link again my earlier points on the whole matter of pre-ordering but the 2 BIL debacle - which even before Christmas was fairly obviously going to happen (apart from the direct/Modelzone approach which later emerged) - has, I think, brought things to clear notice.  Seemingly at various stages in the path to us, the end purchasers, various people have not played the game with us - retailers took pre-orders they knowingly could not guarantee and didn't tell us that, and one large retailer who allegedly fail to order in a timely manner only had their order (or whatever part of it) met by reducing orders which other retailers had placed punctually (causing them to lose sales).   The model railway hobby and business is almost certainly suffering from the overall economic situation as the amount of money around for discretionary spending on such things as hobbies is becoming tight or difficult for many people.  To make that situation even worse by the various things which seem to have happened in this example seems to me to be jumping from the frying pan into the fire, and our hobby does not need it.

 

BTW I make no criticism of the number of units manufactured - I don't know why they chose that number but I'm sure it was one which returned a reasonable profit on investment and that is what they are in business to do.

 

I couldn't agree with you more, in particular your phrase "It is beholden on us to play fair with the people we buy from - if we pre-order then we do our level best to hour that..".

 

The difficulty is where we are now and how to get to that point of trust. It's not just the 2-BIL that is causing problems, people have been having similar pre-ordering issues with the Great Gathering A4s. The only way I can see to gain the necessary trust is for Hornby to talk to their retailers (I can't seen them as a quoted company with shareholders speaking to us) in advance of them making their orders explaining how many they may get depending on demand from other retailers. That should at least discourage retailers from taking far more pre-orders than they could ever expect to fulfil. Conversely, if production was still some time away, Hornby could give retailers a cut off date for orders guaranteed to be fulfilled and set the production run accordingly.

 

The allied question of retailer allocations is a difficult one. Arguably unless Hornby sets a deadline or imposes other conditions, retailers should not unreasonably expect their orders to be fulfilled on a proportionate basis provided the production run has not already been allocated and/or distributed to other retailers. Part of the problem here may be that retailers expected their orders to be completed in full because they were not warned otherwise and took pre-orders on that assumption. Hornby should know from past experience that the larger box shifters will make an order so could pre-assign them a perhaps reduced allocation until an order was made. If there was then no order "in time", those models could be reallocated. At least that way other retailer allocations would increase rather than decrease.

 

But whatever "solutions" if any are found, the fundamental problem for me is that we do not yet (or may never) trust manufacturers to get a product right to the extent each of us wants for us to get into the habit of pre-ordering. Not unreasonably we want to see the production model first.

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I agree with all of the above. What is needed from BOTH manufacturer and retailer is,in post-modern management language,transparency. Seeming to be 'in denial'----and I did use the word 'seeming' ,in case anyone misquotes me----will only make matters a good deal worse. Time both ends met in the middle.

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I agree with all of the above. What is needed from BOTH manufacturer and retailer is,in post-modern management language,transparency. Seeming to be 'in denial'----and I did use the word 'seeming' ,in case anyone misquotes me----will only make matters a good deal worse. Time both ends met in the middle.

As far as the retailer part of the chain is concerned I truly think this is where the 'local model shop' element becomes important.  Alright geographically 'local' might not mean on you doorstep (it certainly doesn't in my case) but I buy regularly from two retailers who know I will take what I pre-order, will do their best to help me if I have missed something as a result of not pre-ordering, who sell a far wider range of useful essential  stuff way beyond r-t-r and who speak to me (and me to them) in christian name terms.  And incidentally they don't give me preferential treatment on prices and I wouldn't expect or ask for it - they have businesses to run, not charity shops.

 

I realise that not everyone can do that but a good retailer - like these two - will offer mail order and, again like these two, will as happily accept a small order for essentials such as a few tins of Humbrol as a far bigger order for boxes of Code 75 bullhead track or a couple of r-t-r locos.

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If my pre-ordered (and as yet not to be re-run) single example does not end up getting delivered then I will very seriously consider contacting the competition office.

I have now got three of R3162 (the BR version): one from my usual supplier, one I pre-ordered from Hattons and one I panic-bought from Modelzone. Similarly, I have almost got two of R3177 (the NRM version): the panic-bought one from Modelzone, and I am waiting for Hattons to deliver the one I pre-ordered from them.

 

This is not a situation I want to be in, as it has cost me far too much. Ideally, all I want is one of each, although I might be prepared to renumber one additional one. So if the one you pre-ordered does not get delivered, and it is one of those that I've got excess of, contact me and I'll sell you one of mine.

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I have now got three of R3162 (the BR version): one from my usual supplier, one I pre-ordered from Hattons and one I panic-bought from Modelzone. Similarly, I have almost got two of R3177 (the NRM version): the panic-bought one from Modelzone, and I am waiting for Hattons to deliver the one I pre-ordered from them.This is not a situation I want to be in, as it has cost me far too much. Ideally, all I want is one of each, although I might be prepared to renumber one additional one. So if the one you pre-ordered does not get delivered, and it is one of those that I've got excess of, contact me and I'll sell you one of mine.

Sounds like you've got more than some retailers!

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I'm sorry ,panic buying bread, or panic buying petrol I get as not having these is at least a severe inconvenience, but panic buying a 2 Bil? I accept that you really wanted one, but let's face it we knew nothing about this model until December , so why not just wait until adequate supplies are available? It will happen.......sometime. Meanwhile paying full price is just playing into the hands of those who seek to make more money supplying direct at the expense of your local model shop.

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I live in Beckenham. My local model shop is ... (wait for it) ... Modelzone, the Glades, Bromley, which is where I bought my first 2Bil. The next nearest model shop is Modelzone, Centrale, Croydon. Only then does Kent Garden Railways come into consideration.

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I'm sorry, panic buying bread, or panic buying petrol I get as not having these is at least a severe inconvenience, but panic buying a 2 Bil? I accept that you really wanted one, but let's face it we knew nothing about this model until December, so why not just wait until adequate supplies are available? It will happen.......sometime. Meanwhile paying full price is just playing into the hands of those who seek to make more money supplying direct at the expense of your local model shop.

 

 

Just called into CMC for some plasticard and noticed they have at least one BR 2-BIL's on the shelf plus one in display cabinet priced at £110. They also have all 4 versions of HJ Class 128 in the display cabinet priced at £94.

 

I called in to Cheltenham (my local shop) at lunchtime to pick up my 2-BIL. Apparently they had a delivery yesterday, and still have 9 x 2-BILs left for sale, having sold only one so far. After all the hue and cry about availability I was expecting to be crushed in the stampede to get one, but it seems not!

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A a retailer, I would like to leap to the defence of all Hornby retailers across this land, who like me have probably taken a lot of stick for something that has been way beyond their control.

 

Up until the end of 2012, various systems for ordering, delivery of new product, retailers' mark-up etc. were working well, as they had done for many years previously.

 

As 2013 progresses, various changes have been being made to the Hornby/Retailer relationship, but without any information being received by retailers from Margate as to what is happening and why.

 

One of the prime examples is the 2-BIL supply saga.

Whenever the new range is announced for a year, orders are collected by Hornby throughout January from the retailers, and I can never recall there being a problem about us ever receiving what we pre-ordered. It is therefore not unreasonable that retailers should assume that they will receive however many 2-BILs we would want. I can appreciate that due to their imminent arrival when this ordering procedure was taking place ran the risk of over-ordering, but where did the direct selling via the Hornby website and the Modelzone getting first delivery come from, with retailers being supplied some 2 months later come from? Also, the halving of pre-ordered allocations was something many would not have been aware of, unless they paid close attention to the detail within the Hornby trade website.

  Hornby did admit to there being insufficient allocation for the initial batch to retailers, well after the event.

  We now have a further farce that the 2nd batches have been handled in a different way again, and as such many retailers will miss out again because we were not told of how this was being being done, and at least one batch is pre-sold out of Hornby.

 

   I spoke personally with Simon Kohler at Glasgow in February. Whilst what has been happening is not part of his department, I did ask that he pass the message on that retailers need communication coming out of Margate so that we know what is happening and why. Retailers are the face of Hornby to many customers, but often we are being made to look like idiots because we have no idea what has been happening, and what will happen in the future. How can we plan for what is to come, especially if people cannot pre-order with confidence the model they want. As has been shown, even Hattons have fallen victim to this with the 2-BIL.

   Two weeks on, and we haven't heard a peep out of Margate about anything!

 

  However, I must say that in my view the selling of the 'Great Gathering' has been handled well. Certainly I was informed early as to why I would only be allocated so many sets, when I would have liked more. But as has been said, 500 sets do not go far around all the retailers in this country.

  Whilst the normal mail order channels may not be able to take further orders on these, it may be worth looking around some of the smaller shops across this land who may still have orders unspoken for.

 

  My business now has a new company mantra, which I dare not put on here, but the 2nd word is Hornby!

  Nothing would please me more than to know what is happening and what is planned for the Hornby/Retailer relationship, so that I can carry on trading with them with the confidence I have had for the past 9 years.

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A a retailer, I would like to leap to the defence of all Hornby retailers across this land, who like me have probably taken a lot of stick for something that has been way beyond their control.

We consumers, including those who rely on mail-order, sympathize with you the retailers here.

 

Hornby's shennanigans don't affect the livelihoods of consumers.

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I thought Simon Kohler was Marketing Manager. I would have expected him to know if not be instrumental in the sale and distribution of Hornby products. Have I got his position wrong?

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I thought Simon Kohler was Marketing Manager. I would have expected him to know if not be instrumental in the sale and distribution of Hornby products. Have I got his position wrong?

In many companies, sales and marketing are two different organizations. It is marketing's responsibility to define and promote products, and the job of the sales force to sell it. They do communicate internally. 
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