Where are the Hornby models?

[Dunsignalling]

The reason why Hornby can't put enough stock on the shelves is that the Chinese factories - globally , for all model railway companies - aren't able to satisfy the demand , because one of the big ones has closed down. And nobody is rushing to provide that extra capacity because Sandakan weren't making any money to start with, and because costs are rising significantly year by year. When supply is inadequete and nobody steps in to fill the gap, that generally signals that the market price is too low for suppliers to make a normal living

 

If there were piles of Hornby stock unsold at the retailers, that might indicate Hornby's market research was at fault , and that they weren't producing the products the market wanted. I don't see how Hornby selling all the products they can get made is a signal that they have badly misread the market.

 

(And a question that's been hanging in the back of my mind for some time - if there weren't supply problems in China , and if RTR was pouring onto the shelves in the "normal" boom-time way , could the market actually absorb it? Is the supply crisis actually a blessing in disguise, masking a drop in demand and avoiding a glut of unsold stock overhanging a weak market? The suggestion that Hornby is putting the retail trade into difficulties because of a lack of stock to sell ignores the very real possibility that the market for that amount of stock simply isnt there , and that the only result of normal production would be shops full of unsold stock and a price collapse as retailers cut each other's throats in a desperate attempt to shift it. That might do considerably more damage to the trade than what we see now. The days of £10 Airfix 31s and Royal Scots overhanging the British market in the early 80s probably did the trade and the manufacturers no favours)  

 

I'm a little doubtful about some of the demands that "Hornby should communicate better" because I'm not convinced that folk are necessarily listening to what is said. A year or more ago , Simon Kohler actually warned publicly that in future Hornby would be producing in shorter runs , and there would not be a warehouse full of unsold stock to be dumped through the boxsellers at a discount 12 months after release. While teething problems with the new factories may well be making the runs even shorter than intended, we were warned this was the new policy and Hornby are only doing what they announced they would. And by and large folk seem to have simply woven the statement into their personal "Why Hornby don't get it and are doing it all wrong" theories as an "excuse" ###### obfuscation/smoke signal , rather than considering what this would actually mean for us in practice. Similarly , the statement that Hornby were operating concessions has been in annual reports and statements for years - I don't quite understand the howls of outrage and the view that Hornby are only allowed to sell their products via certain retail channels and mustn't supply others, and that ModelZone must only get leftover scraps of production. It's now horribly obvious that nobody was exactly making a fortune at our expense from the ModelZone arrangement...  

 

And the head of Hornby Italia was reported as saying that supply had been particularly difficult last year , but that this year should be better. When Continental models sell for 60-100% more than the British equivalent, you can hardly be surprised if Hornby were to decide that this year it's the Continental ranges which need to be protected when production slots have to be rationed

 

With the exception of some Hawksworths and a few of the more niche Maunsells and Pullmans Hornby do seem to be selling whatever they make. The 2-BILs have been a commercial success, and the GW tanks seem still to be coming in dribs and drabs . Shifting the stuff isn't their problem at present, so "not reading the market" isn't the main issue for them     

Short runs, as such, are not what has exercised opinion, it is obviously a problem for any manufacturer if they produce so much of an item that the excess has to be heavily discounted to clear it.

 

The problem has been that, with a number of releases, there have not been enough produced even to satisfy firm orders from their established dealer network (horse's mouth information). 

 

The issue of higher-priced Continental products out-competing ours for production slots is almost certainly significant and the remedy for that lies in convincing the "I want loads of locos but won't pay over £100 each" brigade that large locos can nowadays only be produced below that if they are made to Railroad standards. 

 

It may take a (hopefully short term) shortage of new releases for some to get the message that the new reality if we want higher quality than that is "Two for £300" (or thereabouts) rather than three.

 

Reassuring Hornby that enough of us have "woken up and smelt the coffee" may not be any easier.

 

John

[robmcg]

My reading of this thread makes me think that £150 will be typical for a new super detailed model soon, if not already there. Some thoughtful and wise comments from many people, and all power to RMweb.

 

If some of the models shown in the video about 20 messages back make it into stores by Christmas, that would be nice.

 

In the meantime I still enjoy current models greatly. All power to Hornby in finding quality production capacity.

['CHARD]

Sheesh!  In the time it took me to commute, listen to the Archers, read a chapter of a book about legendary group WIRE and unpack a bargain Britannia, there's been a flurry of small essays and a dissertation or two on this most compelling of threads.

 

Time for a read and a catch-up...

 

 

And yes, I did say a bargain Brit.  Another one, a beautiful loose Hornby one cut from a dubious Jubilee train-pack and ripe for the attentions of an extreme weathering exponent.

[Dunsignalling]

Railroad is not neccessarily for the younger modeller - it is for the more price sensitive modeller or one who would rather forgo fiddly detail bits that might fall off. The issue is that the use of the Railroad brand is somewhat hit and miss. Subjects like the 9F are I think superb advocates for the idea - a model which is not as finescale as the Bachmann offering but is robust, well finished and looks the part at near half the cost of the Bachmann one.

 

Personally I think they could easily justify three clearly demarcated tiers - Railroad for the 'value' range, a regular range featuring mainstream items (including the enhanced versions of Design Clever models such as Tornado and the P2), and an elite premium range where the full fat superdetailed models could reside. I'm not suggesting hundreds of lines either - in these straitened times I could envisage the premium range maybe being 3 or 4 models a year that are issued or re-liveried.

I think there would have been a Super Detail 9F if Bachmann hadn't got there first. My guess is that Hornby calculated that a profitable price point for a directly comparable model would come out above Bachmann's.  I am surprised, though, that they haven't seen fit to further exploit their excellent loco-drive chassis by putting it under a "full fat" Crosti despite the prototype being, perhaps, "semi-skimmed"!

 

"Clearly demarcated" is what we need, however the ranges are divided up. I think the "fuzzy edges" we are currently seeing are at the root of much of the traffic on this thread.

 

A three-tier structure such as you describe could well be how things eventually settle down. Indeed, it might be argued that one is already emerging, albeit informally. 

 

John

[valeofyork]

A three-tier structure such as you describe could well be how things eventually settle down. Indeed, it might be argued that one is already emerging, albeit informally. 

 

 

Yes, I think it is - of relatively recent models, the 50, 56, 60 and HST are all in the high-end bracket, but the 67 is more mid-range as it doesn't have the same level of detail.

[coachmann]

A three-tier range........Glad I'm not a model shop keeper having to stock all three variants and then having to dispose of the unsold at discount! It must be bad enough stocking all the known liveries beyond big four, pre 1956, post 1956, green era, blue era, grey, red band grey, roundel triple grey, mock-privatisation, full privatisation etc etc....

[coachmann]

 

Hornby would dearly love to have their production programme fully up to date because they can't make a profit out of things that are not available for sale, something that all the "moaning minnies" always very conveniently forget. If they can't make a profit they will fail and the hobby will be the poorer if it goes down.

 

To paraphrase a former work colleague of mine, no one will die if their required loco is a year late, or is cancelled altogether. Get a sense of proportion.

 

[Mod4 Edit: to remove unnecessary comment]

 

 

The OP had a valid point and many RMwebbers clearly agree with him. Brits as individuals are well known for not complaining affectively, which is why they now suffer in the workplace and elsewhere, so to tell them they are moaning minnies when they do air their views is thoughtless. In all the years I have been in business I have only dealt with wholesalers and retailers who kept to their promises....... Business, transport and life in general is built on kept promises, and any delays has a knock-on effect resulting in lost revenue/wages.  It might only be a hobby to the buyer but believe me it is a business to the seller and it is his business that could die if a loco is a year late.  Unfortunately British manufacturing in general and many traders did not 'Get a sense of prortion' in past years and we saw what eventually happened.

 

So when Hornby annually announced its models would be available in the first quarter, second quarter or whatever, buyers were able to base their expectations on those promises. The failure rate to meet those promises has been high of late and it is likely Hornby has missed the boat on occasions when buyers have diverted their hard earned money elsewhere.

 

To keep a sense of proportion, Bachmann has a long running reputation for slipping behind on schedules but folk expected better of Hornby based on the past. No doubt Hornby will get its business sorted in due course but there is no harm in airing grievances on a forum, therebye letting the company know just how its clients feel.

[andytrains]

The big question is, does anybody at Hornby read this forum and if they do why have they not, 'as yet' come up with a response?

[Miss Prism]

The big question is, does anybody at Hornby read this forum and if they do why have they not, 'as yet' come up with a response?

 

The scheduled Hornby response didn't pass the drop test, and is awaiting 'new packaging'.

[bigherb]

The big question is, does anybody at Hornby read this forum and if they do why have they not, 'as yet' come up with a response?

Why should they.

Hornby have already stated the reasons why they are having problems what else do you want them to do.

One to think about Hornby are not tied to any manufacture they can go anywhere like India, Vietnam etc once it is up and running, may be a few years they could be well on the road to a very good supply situation. Bachmann tied to Kader Holdings could still be in the same situation as they are now.

If Hornby had managed to buy Sanda Kan then things might have been different but Kader got them and decided to stop producing for a lot a of the clientel then finally close the factory down.

['CHARD]

I'm just delighted that I've read the word 'bumptious' for the first time!  My dad used to use it, but even then I wasn't certain of the actual meaning, so I had to consult an on line dictionary!

 

Thanks Coach for making my morning that little bit more illuminating!

[Ian Hargrave]

The big question is, does anybody at Hornby read this forum and if they do why have they not, 'as yet' come up with a response?

You bet they do. Problem is,I believe,that,at this moment in time,that the 'answers'.....as you express it......are probably beyond their control

 

Earlier in the year,they dug a big hole for themselves with a press event heralding 'design clever',a tranche of exciting new developments,brand new releases ......and......improved lead-in and delivery times. From then on matters went 'pear-shaped'.'Going Underground' in what Larry....correctly,in my view....terms as a somewhat 'bumptious' posting ,singularly chooses to pass over that. This is a self-inflicted situation.

By and large,members of this forum are both fair and (especially in Larry's case) knowledgeable. We treat each other with courtesy and respect. It ill-behoves someone to tell others to ' Get a sense of proportion'.

[valeofyork]

Does nobody have a problem with the system of 'offshoring' manufacture - in that it can definitely be seen as exploitative?

[andytrains]

Does nobody have a problem with the system of 'offshoring' manufacture - in that it can definitely be seen as exploitative?

We have accepted it for years, not just in our toy trains but in many other areas of manufacturing.

Unfortunately it is a fact of life at the moment.

I personally, would gladly pay more for a loco if nobody was exploited in its manufacture.

I can see the paying more bit coming, well some of it is here already, but I do not think there will be an end to people being exploited.

[petethemole]

It exploits the existence of economies elsewhere in the world where both wage levels and prices are lower than in UK/USA/Western Europe etc. If manufacture of many items were to be brought back to UK (for example) the production processes etc would in many cases be arranged to use low skilled, minimum wage labour. This would also be exploitative, considering that in the past the factories would usually have paid negotiated "rates for the job", possibly low, but not necessarily as low as minimum wage now is in purchasing terms. Workers have always been exploited, wherever they are; that's the nature of any economies where people work for other people (or the state, council etc). If you like tea, find out about the pay of tea pickers!

 

Pete

['CHARD]

Does nobody have a problem with the system of 'offshoring' manufacture - in that it can definitely be seen as exploitative?

 

I think that's outside the scope of discussion of this thread to be honest; global macro-economics of production call all sorts of ethics into question.  I don't think that's a territory we want to venture into, because I don't believe it will offer any insights to the topic we're discussing.

[andytrains]

Back to Hornbys problems then.

Think I will build a kit!

['CHARD]

If you have an itch that only a red box will scratch, there are plenty of potentially ex-MZ products about at the moment. 

 

Granted, it's not going to speed up the LMS CCT or MR brakes that I'm after, but I'm quite happy to wait for those as I integrate an extremely good value BR Standard 7MT into my fleet.

 

 

 

EDIT: for total accuracy, 70000 didn't actually come in a red box, she was a train-pack breakout.

[GoingUnderground]

The OP had a valid point and many RMwebbers clearly agree with him. Brits as individuals are well known for not complaining affectively, which is why they now suffer in the workplace and elsewhere, so to tell them they are moaning minnies when they do air their views is thoughtless. In all the years I have been in business I have only dealt with wholesalers and retailers who kept to their promises....... Business, transport and life in general is built on kept promises, and any delays has a knock-on effect resulting in lost revenue/wages.  It might only be a hobby to the buyer but believe me it is a business to the seller and it is his business that could die if a loco is a year late.  Unfortunately British manufacturing in general and many traders did not 'Get a sense of prortion' in past years and we saw what eventually happened.

 

So when Hornby annually announced its models would be available in the first quarter, second quarter or whatever, buyers were able to base their expectations on those promises. The failure rate to meet those promises has been high of late and it is likely Hornby has missed the boat on occasions when buyers have diverted their hard earned money elsewhere.

 

To keep a sense of proportion, Bachmann has a long running reputation for slipping behind on schedules but folk expected better of Hornby based on the past. No doubt Hornby will get its business sorted in due course but there is no harm in airing grievances on a forum, therebye letting the company know just how its clients feel.

 

[Mod4 Edit: to remove unnecessary comment]

 

I have no problem with folks airing their grievances, but I disagree that us Brits are bad at complaining these days. We do far more of it, especially in the current, "someone must be to blame" era. It is the tone of their criticisms that I object to, much as you have objected to the tone of mine.

 

All product announcements, including release dates for new models, are usually based on the producer's latest information available to them which includes information from their suppliers. I have said before when takling about DCC kit, and I'll repeat it now, if folks want to base their purchasing plans on vapourware, that's up to them, but they should always be prepared for delays, changes to spec, and even cancellations between the announcements and the hardware actually going on sale.

[Removed a/c]

Yes, I think it is - of relatively recent models, the 50, 56, 60 and HST are all in the high-end bracket, but the 67 is more mid-range as it doesn't have the same level of detail.

It is a shame that the differences are not reflected in the pricing though. 

[Mod4]

Please can we keep to topic rather than resort to unnecessary personal comments. 

 

Thank you

[Andy Hayter]

The big question is, does anybody at Hornby read this forum and if they do why have they not, 'as yet' come up with a response?

 

Do they read this?  I am sure they do.

Why no response?  Well why put petrol on the fire?  As I alluded to on around page 6 if there is a choice between a continental model for the International range or a UK model then the profit margin on the continental model will currently win every time.

 

In the last few months the French market has enjoyed:

3 new versions of the X72500 - 2 coach railcar - sales price around £250

3 new versions of the 141 R 2-8-2 tender locomotive - sales price around £250

3 versions of the 030 TU - 0-6-0 tank - sales prices around £155

6 OCEM bogie coaches - rather old hat but still quite good models - in 2 era - sales price around £40 each

 

plus some wagons and I think also some new versions of the CC 72000 diesel locomotive.

 

So the reason they are not saying anything is that you will not like the answer.

 

It is now time to start putting your hands in your pockets - it's "put up or shut up" time.

 

I note the next thread (which I have not yet opened) seems to be about the price of an HST - well if you do not like the price, then time to smell some coffee.

[BOARD OF TRADE]

"The economy,stupid.",as Bill Clinton's strategy guru said.

Simply put as to how you can run a Country when you're "in charge of everything".

A bit more difficult when your running a Company trying to make money and satisfy demand(the demands of,if I may say so,an exremely demanding and rarely satisfied customer base).

Of course you can invest in massive research departments,manufacturing facilities,workforce and all that goes with that and produce everything under the sun at £5 a throw to satisfy the "demand" and go out of business next week,.......or cut your cloth according to the cashflow!

If you don't like the product or the price then don't buy and go elsewhere or go without.

If you think you can do it any better then write to Hornby etc. and apply for the job as Head of Opinions,or whatever.

Sorry but it's about time somebody said it.

[Andy W]

Does sound like they're working their way through a list of pre-prepared excuses and this month it is "packaging" again.

Still that's prototypical - how many train delays are claimed to be due to "operating difficulties", "congestion", "signal failure" and so on in lieu of whatever the real reason is.

Oh for a G.F.Fiennes - "the delay to this train is due to bad management".

[micklner]

Perhaps they have run out of other excuses. No idea what they are going to do with the Leaves on the line :jester: