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Hornby 2014 - predictions


rovex

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The market is going to change radically once 3D printing takes off and I'm sure the RTR makers are trying to figure out business models for when that happens. There will be a new market for scale drawings for serious modellers to buy, and a new market for RTR chassis-only for those who are happy to print off and detail a loco body but unwilling to build a chassis. Commission work will change too, as NRM, Steam, model shops etc will be able to make/detail their own bodies, so will just need to commission the chassis.

Agreed that the market will change, resulting in increased choice for the consumer, but radically? Not in the short term.

 

There will still be a market for RTR for those who don't/can't use 3D printing, and Bachmann/Hornby will also use 3D printing for that, but how much of a market ? 3D printing will certainly bring good times for small companies making high quality detailing products, and some of them will venture into making and selling fully detailed bodies, but the business model for mass market RTR as we now know it now will be gone - we are already seeing the changes starting.

I think that perhaps your 3D printed future is a tad OTT Rodger

This of course assumes that magically everyone suddenly acquires 3D CAD skills or those with such talents freely share the fruits of their labour.

Wider use of 3D printing will be interesting. It won't replace mass market RTR and it won't replace injection moulding for higher volume products because injection moulding will be much cheaper (even despite the high cost of tooling). There will still be lots of people who want to purchase a nicely detailed ready-made model in a box.

 

It will create an opportunity for cottage industry players to provide alternatives to the resin, white metal, or etch kits today. This could be extended into small volume manufacture of completed models under commission or even conceivably on speculation. It does offer advantages over some other kit approaches by reducing some of the assembly steps.

 

Not everyone will buy a 3D printer anytime soon, and fewer will develop the 3D CAD skills to manipulate data. Doubtless there will be a small cottage industry in supplying CAD data from drawings. It won't be free in the same way that books of published drawings are not free today.

 

I do think it will be exciting but we've a long way to go before it revolutionizes anything. It does nothing to change adding labour-intensive detail fiddly bits and it does nothing to change the mechanics - metal wheels bearings, motors, etc. As a DIY alternative to injection moulding it's great, but that's about it.

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Where is this stuff about Hornby strategically (as opposed to opportunistically*) moving to another gauge coming from? (It's a bit like the idea of resurrecting the Tri-ang brand.)

 

They've got enough problems. Strategically shifting resources and limited manufacturing capacity to an emphasis on a new gauge is inconceivable to me.

 

* Like the Arnold 5-BEL.

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Are there any significant anniversarys coming up in 2014 which Hornby might try to mark?

 

In terms of a totally new loco, I'd like to see one of the following;

 

1. Original W1.

2. Turbomotive.

3. Streamlined P2.

 

I'd also like to see some of the older models;

 

1. Revamped Princess Class.

2. More A3/A1 in apple green, experimental purple or express blue.

3. Apple green A4.

4. Royal Scot in LMS black.

 

Mike70.

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Are there any significant anniversarys coming up in 2014 which Hornby might try to mark?

 

Mike70.

 

The start of the First World War is the obvious one but I think that was mentioned right at the beginning of this thread. So I guess that would be troop trains and ambulance coaches. Or perhaps taking an inspiration from that wonderful pre-grouping NER layout Hudson Road and running munitions and military equipment trains/wagons. All perhaps a little grim depending on your thoughts I guess.

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3D priniting is fine for producing masters and proving runs, and will speed up the tooling process as it already does in many sectors. In my wife's organisation they have just produced the masters for new design pump casing with 3D. I have had several discussion with the 3D designers as to how it could be applied in the modelling sector and they clearly see it as small run stuff. Clearly mass production is not offered as a benefit for any 3D printer that they or I am aware of.

 

Materials used will need much more development. I was shown a GWR gas wagon recently that is highly detailed but very light, fragile and of concern as to how it will survive long term with normal hobby usage. In addition there is the painting and finishing. As most rtr is really a kit of parts that are base painted prior to final assembly, I cannot see how 3D printing offers any advantage of existing production methods and will be considerably slower. Time = money. More time =  more expensive to the consumer.

 

If the main manufacturers are expected to produce only running chassis for other companies to finish, I suspect they will puill out all together.

 

I do NOT see 3D as an alternative in the immediate future for large runs

 

Mike Wiltshire

I think you are right there but I doubt that 3D printing has much relevance to any consideration of potential r-t-r products.

 

The immediate future for 3D (beyond the wholly D-I-Y aspect) lies in producing "downloadable kits" of prototypes not considered to have wide enough appeal to attract the attentions of existing r-t-r or kit producers.

 

John

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Where is this stuff about Hornby strategically (as opposed to opportunistically*) moving to another gauge coming from? (It's a bit like the idea of resurrecting the Tri-ang brand.)

 

They've got enough problems. Strategically shifting resources and limited manufacturing capacity to an emphasis on a new gauge is inconceivable to me.

 

* Like the Arnold 5-BEL.

 

It may have been someone suggesting that 3mm scale would be a good idea. I replied that however logical this might seem, I didn't think it would go well with the need for cash flow.

 

I don't know where the N gauge stuff comes from, perhaps things to do with other Hornby brands and synergies.

 

In the meantime how about this as a celebration of the End of Design Clever....  a remembrance of the days when new Hornby 00 RTR models were full of small details which really did raise the standard?  And most of the bits were fitted at the factory.  Many of these models are of course still in the shops.

 

note; weathering by linesideandlocos1 of Wolverhampton, photo by me.

 

post-7929-0-74193900-1386797083_thumb.jpg

 

 

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I wondered if they might release a few war time black locos. But I wasn't sure if WWII was something Hornby would bother with.

 

Wartime ? - Perhaps a V2 may come flying in - Don your tin hats !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

Brit15

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Not many V2 rockets around in the First World War....

 

Something suitable for Railway Operating Division would be nice, plenty of pre-grouping 0-6-0's or 0-8-0's that could be used - or, as I mentioned previously, a Dean Goods turned out in ROD livery

 

Maybe a flat wagon with WW1 tank on board?

 

Ambulance Train would be interesting but a challenge bearing in mind how many carriages long the real ones were

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Apart from the world wars beginning in 1914 and 1939, I've been trying hard thinking of any other significant anniversaries:

 

1924 - British Empire Exhibition at Wembley, special edition of Flying Scotsman planned?

1954 - first of the Derby Lightweight DMUs entered service in West Riding

1964 - introduction of XP64 stock and rail blue livery

1974 - completion of the Crewe-Glasgow electrification

 

One long shot for production could be a model of Robert Urie's original H15 4-6-0 design for the LSWR which first entered service in 1914 http://www.semgonline.com/steam/h15class_01.html

 

Arguably they were a significant stage in locomotive design as much as Churchward's GWR designs were insofar they were two-cylinder outside Walschaerts valve gear design with a high, stepped footplate.

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How many people are likely to be modelling WW1 period layouts? I'm sure a few are about, and if suitable locos and stock were produced, a few more might be started. However if Hornby, and/or Bachmann, were to produce such things as an ROD Dean Goods, I would expect them to be limited editions so as not to be stuck with unsold stock. As a result most would be likely to go to collectors and be regarded as investments, which I think is a bit off.

 

If the WW1 commemoration 'market' is to be in limited editions I would prefer the manufacturers to announce models of some the various memorial locos, for release in early 2018, with a portion of the purchase price to go to the British Legion (other servicemens' charities are available). I'd have no beef with them going to collectors then.

 

A more appropriate model for WW1 commemoration would be the NBR/LNER J36 class locos named after generals, suitable for Scottish layouts up to the 1960s. I see this one as more likely to come from the Blue team however.

 

Pete

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A more appropriate model for WW1 commemoration would be the NBR/LNER J36 class locos named after generals, suitable for Scottish layouts up to the 1960s.

 

And the preserved "Maude" running on the mainline in the 1980's.....

 

Cheers,

Mick

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Ah, 1974 - WCML electrification to Glasgow.

 

I'd love some decent 86's, 87's and 90's - to go under Dapol's catenary masts (and forthcoming wires which they tell me will be released in 2014).

 

Bachmann have done the fabulous Class 85, but that prototype was very limited in terms of livery and operating area. So not a great seller I guess.

 

Class 86's and 90's have had lots of liveries and have wider operating areas. (Shame Heljan made such a b***s up of the 86).

 

As far as D&E types are concerned, models of AC electrics are about the only classes not to have been updated. 

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Didn't some D11s carry the names of WW1 battles or generals like Ypres Somme   Joffre and so on, Bachmann models a possibility?

 

On that subject we in NZ had only one named locomotive for the 1890s-1970s and it was 'Passchendaele', an A class 4-6-2 commemorating the worst losses of our men in WW1 including Gallipoli and the Somme.  Somehow being the only named engine gave it sadness and gravitas, but it still ran un-cleaned and un-noticed by most, like all the rest of the class.

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A more appropriate model for WW1 commemoration would be the NBR/LNER J36 class locos named after generals, suitable for Scottish layouts up to the 1960s. I see this one as more likely to come from the Blue team however.

 

Pete

If you want to commemorate those who died in the First World War, the last people deserving an accolade would be the generals. 

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Just also realised ...

 

In May 1954 the 16th International Railway Congress was held in London.

 

Amongst the locos and other rolling stock on show at Willesden depot for delegates to view were:

 

70037 Hereward the Wake

71000 Duke of Gloucester

73050

80084

92014

EM2 27000

 

Hornby owns tooling for many of these locos, could some of these appear as a commemorative edition?

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I said I wasn't going to....but...

 

Most years Hornby seem to do something in the non-passenger coaching stock. Now I do just wonder if:

 

LNER 6 wheeler (Thompson?) that lasted till about 1968

 

Also they have usually had a car-carrier in the range. Now what  about the Angl-Scottish Car Carrier vans?

 

And to round off, a rehash of the old Blue Circle Cement wagon of ECML class 33 (and sadly DP2) fame?

 

Stewart

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I wonder if we will see more commemorative A4s as its the 'Great Goodbye' at Shildon in February and without repeating the Great Gathering collection I do think we might see either Dominion of Canada or Dwight D Eisenhower in some form, plus Hornby have never done Sir Nigel Gresley in current condition so maybe they'll appear either in the main or Railroad ranges. Only other things I predict we might see is another 3rd Rail EMU given the success of the 2Bil, and possibly for D+E modellers a new series of Mk3s s they do lend themselves to Design Clever.

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Are there any significant anniversarys coming up in 2014 which Hornby might try to mark?

The start of the First World War is the obvious one but I think that was mentioned right at the beginning of this thread. So I guess that would be troop trains and ambulance coaches.

Yes, we did discuss ambulance trains from the Great War. 2014 is also the 75th anniversary of the invasion of Poland.

 

Somehow I don't think Hornby will be commemorating Operation Fall Weiss by offering a 'blitzkrieg' set featuring a Deutsche Reichsbahn troop train with a couple of PzKpfw I on flatcars.

 

At least I certainly hope not.

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If you want to commemorate those who died in the First World War, the last people deserving an accolade would be the generals. 

 

Notwithstanding the revisionist nonsense peddled by Alan Clark, Joan Littlewood, Michael Morpurgo, and Ben Elton, some seventy-eight British officers of the rank of Brigadier-General or higher were killed in action, died of wounds, or died as a result of active service during WW1. Nearly all of those were killed at the front by shell or small arms fire. The popular belief that they were incompetent butchers cowering in chateaux miles from the front is sheer nonsense.

 

Anyway, on nothing but gut instinct I'd lay a shade of odds on some of the following: airsmoothed MN, an S15, a Black Motor, a G5, a J21 or J27, an industrial 0-4-0ST, a Class 71, LNER "Coronation" stock, LSWR non-gangwayed stock, Bulleid tavern cars, 'Night Ferry' sleeping cars and fourgons, a Thompson BZ, NER wooden bodied hoppers, a retooled 21t hopper in both original and modified forms, and a Railroad 'Duchess' and Bulleid light pacific. If an old product is to be revived then I'd suggest either Synchrosmoke, Battle Space, or Dublo-style diecast semaphore signals.

 

The above is based on the kind of things which Hornby seems to like, namely express passenger engines (especially if they can be painted blue), LSWR engines, LNER engines, passenger tanks, charismatic luxury coaching stock, non-gangwayed coaching stock, parcels vans, and mineral wagons. The introduction of an industrial diesel in 2013 suggests that a steam equivalent can't be far behind, and the 71 is based on the simple fact that there is very little D&E stuff left.

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Just also realised ...

 

In May 1954 the 16th International Railway Congress was held in London.

 

Amongst the locos and other rolling stock on show at Willesden depot for delegates to view were:

 

70037 Hereward the Wake

71000 Duke of Gloucester

73050

80084

92014

EM2 27000

 

Hornby owns tooling for many of these locos, could some of these appear as a commemorative edition?

Well, Duke of Gloucester is (re)scheduled to arrive in 2014 anyway. If they've managed to relocate all the Britannia and 9F tools to one of their new suppliers, and make the tools compatible with the moulding machines there, then they might be possible. The body tools for the Triang EM2 may or may not still exist, but if they do a new chassis would certainly be needed. The other two are Bachmann models of course.

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A significant anniversary in 2014 could be 50 years since the demise of Hornby Dublo in 1964, when Meccano was bought by Lines Bros. Hornby could release 21st century versions of quite a few of the old favourites in suitably retro-styled packaging. Silver King, Duchess of Atholl, Cardiff Castle, Barnstaple, 8F, N2, Classes 08 & 20.

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It may have been someone suggesting that 3mm scale would be a good idea. I replied that however logical this might seem, I didn't think it would go well with the need for cash flow.

 

 

It might have been myself that put forward 3mm as a passing thought or at least I supported any previous posters with similar thoughts.  It was clutching at straws tbh in the Hornby guessing game - I didnt stop to think about the whys and wherefores about it from a business analysts perspective :) 

Ah, 1974 - WCML electrification to Glasgow.

 

I'd love some decent 86's, 87's and 90's - to go under Dapol's catenary masts (and forthcoming wires which they tell me will be released in 2014).

 

Bachmann have done the fabulous Class 85, but that prototype was very limited in terms of livery and operating area. So not a great seller I guess.

 

Indeed, it was a key stepchange in the BR era methinks.........I listen not to the views of the electric loco naysayers.  blah blah blah....I cant hear you :)

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