Jump to content
 

Hornby 2014 - predictions


rovex

Recommended Posts

I've just had a quick wizz through this thread and was amazed how few members have mentioned wagons, cranes and the like.

Basically, we, the modelling fraternity at large, are a bit loco-centric. ... Locos R us.

Yes, apparently we're all loco-mad here.

 

Or perhaps just plain loco or just plain mad.

Link to post
Share on other sites

I would like to see a 94XX pannier but my guess would be it's more likely to come from Bachmann.

I'll borrow Boris' version of "Bah Humbug" if we see a 94xx on Monday. Will Hornby not learn? It has the Hawksworth curse. Lovely for BR(WR) modellers and it's viable in G W R livery, but only in a time-warpy kind of way for a very small number of locomotives.

 

Perhaps it's a good choice to haul all those Brigadoon*-based Hawksworth coaches in GREAT WESTERN livery. But silly me, that's what Wellington with the Hawksworth tender is for.

 

* Presuming of course that there's a Welsh or Cornish version of Brigadoon.

Link to post
Share on other sites

The college football regular season in the US ended last week (except for today's Army/Navy game, and I went to see the movie billed as being somewhat related to Tolkien's 'The Hobbit' while that was on - it was fun but a bit long for the material, so go see it if you haven't read the book, those who have read the book are obliged to see it anyway) and found myself with some spare time this dreary Saturday afternoon and revisited this thread.

 

In the spirit of the fact that each year there are fewer unmodelled prototypes, the guessing game should be progressively easier for us and I wondered, as a group, how well we did in guessing Hornby's announcements for tomorrow. I also wondered if it would be different from the wishlist poll results.

 

I trawled though this thread and counted (very unscientifically) most of the votes spanning statements like "I predict Hornby will make" through "I'm wishing Hornby will make" for steam locomotives. I made a half-hearted attempt not to double count people who double dipped on the same prediction or count re-liveries and there was lots of subjective judgement applied as to whether a reference counted as some sort of prediction/wishlistery. 

 

The point was to see if "we" collectively guessed right, rather than an individual.

 

Anyway here are the top ten results with "votes" followed by the respective locomotive(s):

  • 17, a K1 and an as-built Merchant Navy
  • 14, an S15
  • 12, a Q6 and a redesigned King
  • 11, a W1
  • 10, a J27 and an updated/loco-drive Dean Goods
  • 08, some form of industrial steam locomotive (this might actually be under-counted)
  • 07, a 47xx and a B12
  • 06, an LSWR 700
  • 05, a Claughton, D14/D15/D16, J21, P2 with A4 streamlining, a Saint, Turbomotive and a V2
  • 04, a Caledonian 0-6-0, J15, and a LSWR Radial 4-4-2T
I make no assertions about the accuracy of my counting here but with the 'law of numbers' they are our predictions (more or less). So did enough of us pick the winners?

 

It did turn out a bit differently from the 2013 wishlist poll results, but only a bit.

Link to post
Share on other sites

The point was to see if "we" collectively guessed right, rather than an individual.

I also thought it might be fun to turn the thread around and guess what Hornby won't be announcing.
  • I don't think we'll see a King, or a 47xx or a B12.
  • The Merchant Navy is a dice roll. Bachmann has the CAD, Hornby has a 00 chassis. Who will declare first I wonder?
  • The Claud is a similar dice roll. Both companies have excellent 4-4-0 models in the (detailed) Schools and the Midland Compound. Bachmann lately has had a little crush on pre-grouping, but we can't forget the LSWR T9, so who knows? (If one did a D16 and the other a D14 there'd be much rejoicing.)
  • Does the K1 pack enough "wow" for Hornby?
The fun dark horses for me on this list are the W1 and an industrial locomotive. If the P2 sells then the W1 makes sense in 2015. But will Hornby be that aggressive in 2014? Hornby rotate 0-4-0 locomotives in their collectors club. If they believe in this program, some freshness in the 0-4-0T space would be interesting.

 

Tomorrow will tell.

Link to post
Share on other sites

  • RMweb Gold

They have done this version but as a limited edition 7037 Swindon for the STEAM museum.  I bought one as I wanted this variant of Castle,

 

I would like to see a 94XX pannier but my guess would be it's more likely to come from Bachmann. Hornby's King could do with a makeover as their current model is not great, although it has a good mechanism. 

 

Having glanced through this thread, I have seen lots of good ideas.  I would like one of these:

 

6096935341_dd15cc2335.jpg

E70689_Crewe_26-5-76 by robertcwp, on Flickr

 

And one of these:

 

9282147201_2a52be881d.jpg

P1060790am by robertcwp, on Flickr

 

The fact that Hornby have recently done several NPCCS models gives some hope.

 

However, I suspect we will be more likely to see a Claud Hamilton and/or a 2 Hal than any of the above although I would be happy to be proved wrong on Monday.

If you want the second one, try the Chivers kit, straightforward to build (and add extra detail if you are so inclined) producing a very nice model at the end of it.

 

However, I also have a brass kit for the Thompson one that I haven't yet built.........

 

John

Link to post
Share on other sites

  • RMweb Gold

Loco-centric?...... you lot are kettle-centric.

True, but the trade have more-or-less run out of main-line diesel locos to do, though there are plenty of multiple units and shunters they could tackle.

 

"Tom" announcing a new model that "Dick" and "Harry" have already had a go at wouldn't really "grab the headlines" in the way that a MN or 47xx might.

 

John

Link to post
Share on other sites

Can this be for what one self might have in mind? If so then here is my Hornby 2014 list

 

1. GER/LNER/BR J69 0-6-0

2. Updated Class 86 electric (lights, cab detailing etc)

3. Class 84 BR Blue/Electric blue

4. More MK1 coaches

5. MML HST (modern standards)

6. Anything from the Big Four (rolling stock, locos, early diesel locos)

7. Class 155 with working lights

 

All I can think so far

Link to post
Share on other sites

I have some insider information.

 

My mate who knows a geezer who last night went to the Peking Authentic Cantonese Restaurant who chatted up one of the waitresses who has a cousin who works in the factory making the Hornby models says "wait till Monday".

 

Er, no...she meant for a table.....

Link to post
Share on other sites

Instead of fancy engines it'd be great if Hornby released some more of those Oxford Diecast cars in 1:76, a whole dearth of 80s, 90s and 00s everyday models would be so much more useful :)

 

You are so right, if you add late 70's too - we need at least:

 

Austin Maestro

Datsun Cherry

Ford Sierra

Skoda Estelle

Vauxhall Cavalier

Toyota Camry van

Renault 12

Austin Maxi

Rover Metro

 

Plus some lorries, fixed and artic, that were around in that period, rather than the 50's/60's and post 2000, as we have now (apart from the excellent Road Transport kit range available), particularly a car carrier, to go with the various STVA etc. (Electroten and more recent offerings) rail car carrier wagons around.

Link to post
Share on other sites

.........................      Anyway here are the top ten results with "votes" followed by the respective locomotive(s):

  • 17, a K1 and an as-built Merchant Navy
  • 14, an S15
  • 12, a Q6 and a redesigned King
  • 11, a W1
  • 10, a J27 and an updated/loco-drive Dean Goods
  • 08, some form of industrial steam locomotive (this might actually be under-counted)
  • 07, a 47xx and a B12
  • 06, an LSWR 700
  • 05, a Claughton, D14/D15/D16, J21, P2 with A4 streamlining, a Saint, Turbomotive and a V2
  • 04, a Caledonian 0-6-0, J15, and a LSWR Radial 4-4-2T
I make no assertions about the accuracy of my counting here but with the 'law of numbers' they are our predictions (more or less). So did enough of us pick the winners?  ....................................

 

 

 

Thanks for that, but there are two problems ;

 

1:  Hornby would be mad to go for many on that list ( not to say they won't ).

 

2:  The reason some high on that list  got more "votes" was that some here are pushing for their niche area.  Nothing wrong with that per se, but the manufacturers have got to be careful to avoid falling for such things.

 

.

Link to post
Share on other sites

  • RMweb Premium

In the case of diesel and electric locos in particular I foresee more head to head competition.

The reason I speculated about a new 47 (post #80) was that Hornby's offerings are the ex-Margate and ex-Lima versions.

The ubiquity and large fleet size of the prototype surely means there's a market for another superdetailed version, especially if it's continually available in the classic livery of two-tone green, small yellow panels, unnamed and with two-piece Serck radiators, the most common combination, which surprisingly has been infrequently modelled by Bachmann.

 

Arguably their class 25 has a better body shape than the rival version and that could be updated with wire handrails and all-wheel drive or appear as a Railroad version to provide some competition to Bachmann.

 

Finally, here are some of my thoughts regarding accessories and DCC:

 

Hornby will more aggressively cross-promote their brands so that for example Corgi vehicles will appear in train sets with liveries that are specific only to these sets and/or Airfix easy-build kits released on railway themes.

 

The Hornby eLink will be able to work using smartphones and tablet computers

Link to post
Share on other sites

Well, you've got less than 24 hours to go now until you find out how right or wrong any product predictions have been.

 

I've finally finished the information which will be released at 10.00 tomorrow and I can promise some surprising content in there which no-one's been even close too (as far as I've seen). RMweb will have the most comprehensive set of information possible in a form which will be easier to browse than Hornby's own pages (due to the way they have to group information) and more comprehensive in scope than any printed article can be.

 

:)

Link to post
Share on other sites

.

 

Andy,

 

Will it include an update on Hornby's release status and supply problems ?

 

Thanks.

 

.

No Phil, the announcement topic relates to the products being announced; I've already taken some information out of the presentation and noted it here http://www.rmweb.co.uk/community/index.php?/topic/76144-where-are-the-Hornby-models/?p=1261275 as I'd rather that the announcement topic didn't turn into repetition and analysis of what's already been said.

 

Basically they're aware of ongoing issues and working towards improving matters; that's all that's to be realistically said on that matter.

Link to post
Share on other sites

If You want to talk Class 47s Hornby buy VTrains moulds and 37s and or the company. Save a lot of messing about the 2 biggest locos and Hornby's offerings are shall we be polite and say not very good. I am sure if it was me I would want to have a good offering for these classes. Anyone who is into green and blue buy these. Hornby is missing out on good steady income.(just my thoughts)

Link to post
Share on other sites

  • RMweb Gold

That "looks old fashioned" tale is a nice one, but it just doesn't square up with the facts... I think Cook probably included it because it made for a good story. I don't doubt that Milne made a light hearted remark to that effect but consider:

 

1 - RCTS states they were originally intended to supercede Welsh 0-6-2Ts.

2 - 52 * 8750s (with domes) were built in sufficient numbers to replace remaining large pre group 1854s and 2721s in the early 50s (30 without vacuum brake).

3 - 20 * 74s and 70 * 16s (also with domes) were built in sufficient numbers to replace small pre group 0-6-0T eg 2021 in the same period.

4 - well over 150 pre group 0-6-2T and 0-6-0 were due to (and went) out of use over the same period that the 94s were ordered for.

5 - nothing else was designed or ordered to replace the pre group 0-6-2T.

6 - the superheaters. The GW had abandoned them for shunting locos.

7 - Its a safe assumption that the GWR did not order the 94s for a massive expansion of the loco fleet with no work for them to do. The only things that were there for them to replace were the larger absorbed tank engines.

 

Designing an alternative to the 8750 which is route restricted *while you are still building 8750s* just because the director makes a remark about domes is a good anecdote to put in the book, but its not really very likely. Milne was far too astute to waste company money like that. Using the kit of parts to produce a loco for traffic work with the extra boiler and braking power, on the other hand, makes a great deal of sense.

 

It is interesting to look at what actually happened in terms of shed allocations and that reveals a rather different story - instances of 94XX directly replacing the pre-group 0-6-2Ts are not as common as the above might suggest - in fact in some cases the most traceable direct allocation changes show them being replaced by 8750s or 56XX with relatively small numbers ever being replaced at a depot by 94XX.

 

If anything what seems to have happened is a redistribution which was facilitated by new build although some of it was of course down to changes in traffic levels occurring at the same time.

 

PS  Firm predictions for tomorrow -

 

- there will not be a 94XX,

- there will not be a 'King',

- there will not be a 'Saint'

 

I wonder if there will be a streamlined B17?

Link to post
Share on other sites

If you want the second one, try the Chivers kit, straightforward to build (and add extra detail if you are so inclined) producing a very nice model at the end of it.

 

However, I also have a brass kit for the Thompson one that I haven't yet built.........

 

John

I thought the Chivers kit of the pigeon van  :sungum:  was no longer available.

Link to post
Share on other sites

I can promise some surprising content in there which no-one's been even close too (as far as I've seen).

How wildly inaccurate can these suggestions be?

 

Harton Electric Railway loco:

9637014867_55f7208033.jpg

Harton-Electric-Loco by robertcwp, on Flickr

 

COP Stock:

7170881434_ce5446ba7c.jpg

CP-54265-54256_SudburyTown_LastTrip_19-4-81 by robertcwp, on Flickr

 

The other 'Gordon':

9806822625_75dd87635e.jpg

600_LongmoorMR_1966 by robertcwp, on Flickr

 

On a less ridiculous note, I'd like to see a model of one of these:

3355035584_3f93a4fe0a.jpg

Prestwin by robertcwp, on Flickr

Link to post
Share on other sites

On a less ridiculous note, I'd like to see a model of one of these:

3355035584_3f93a4fe0a.jpg

Prestwin by robertcwp, on Flickr

I'm in complete agreement with you on that one Robert but I reckon that we'll have a shunter's truck scenario where two manufacturers announce the two different styles in the same year sometime and split the market.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.

×
×
  • Create New...