2014 Hornby Announcements

[Robin Brasher]

It would seem likely that the factories making the 2014 range still have to get the delayed items from 2013 produced and delivered (that is unless Hornby have stated that the 2014 products are being made in new factories?). I think it'll take until the end of March to know just how things are going. If it looks like they'll have all of the outstanding 2013 items by the end of July, and are starting to get 2014's out, then they might well be able to get most of this years catalog out this year, as SK has said they are confident they will. I know it seems unlikely now (OK, maybe a slight understatement) but they can't carry on as they have been.

 

Edit:

Actually just getting all the outstanding items out and over half of the new 2014 items would probably please most people.

It is possible that Hornby's 2014 products are being made in different factories. Last year the 2 BIL was announced and produced before items like R4538 BR (Ex-SR) unconverted open 2nd class coach came out. The anticipated production date of this model was the second quarter of 2012 but it did not come until towards the end of 2013. I will be very pleased if the R4534A BR Pull-Push coach pack comes out before the end of this year. After the R4534 BR Pull-Push coach pack sold out within a few hours Hornby said that they would bring forward the production of the R4534A Push-Pull coach pack to Autumn 2012. I am still waiting. I have doubts about whether Hornby will have produced all the 2013 items by the end of this year let alone by the end of July based on Hornby's past performance.

[Robin Brasher]

I would have thought a quick scan of RMweb would be enough to suggest that point (4), at least, has some grounding in reality - at least among a majority of contributors.

 

Paul

The sales figures of models are a better indication of whether we are tightwads than comments in RMweb. It seems that people are not willing to pay over £100 extra for a locomotive fitted with sound which is why Hornby is now producing locomotives with sound for £25 extra. In Swanage R3159 BR M7 class 30055 has not sold very well despite the interest of 30053 running on the adjacent line. One reason may be that Hornby's price of £129.99 does not seem to represent good value for money in comparison to Bachmann's L&YR Radial 2-4-2T with a recommended price of £83.95.

[Dunsignalling]

The sales figures of models are a better indication of whether we are tightwads than comments in RMweb. It seems that people are not willing to pay over £100 extra for a locomotive fitted with sound which is why Hornby is now producing locomotives with sound for £25 extra. In Swanage R3159 BR M7 class 30055 has not sold very well despite the interest of 30053 running on the adjacent line. One reason may be that Hornby's price of £129.99 does not seem to represent good value for money in comparison to Bachmann's L&YR Radial 2-4-2T with a recommended price of £83.95.

The Hornby M7 is a lovely model but it has always been quite expensive for a loco of its size. It is a bit more complex than most comparable models but I've never been wholly convinced that there is not a belief on Hornby's part that we Southern fans may be a bit more "grateful" when they do produce something we want!

 

However, such higher-end Hornby models don't just compete with the likes of Bachmann's Lanky tank (the upgraded Ivatt 2-6-2T will offer a better comparison when it arrives as it is a valid M7 substitute for the later BR steam period and the preservation era), but they are also up against the quality second-hand market.

 

When I wanted an extra M7, the 30055 model had been announced but not released. In the meantime, I came across a mint/boxed example from about five years back at a show. I actually paid a couple of pounds for it more than it cost when new, but saved £50 compared to the price of the new one. 

 

John

[brushman47544]

It would seem likely that the factories making the 2014 range still have to get the delayed items from 2013 produced and delivered (that is unless Hornby have stated that the 2014 products are being made in new factories?). I think it'll take until the end of March to know just how things are going. If it looks like they'll have all of the outstanding 2013 items by the end of July, and are starting to get 2014's out, then they might well be able to get most of this years catalog out this year, as SK has said they are confident they will. I know it seems unlikely now (OK, maybe a slight understatement) but they can't carry on as they have been.

 

Edit:

Actually just getting all the outstanding items out and over half of the new 2014 items would probably please most people.

 

It is possible that Hornby's 2014 products are being made in different factories. Last year the 2 BIL was announced and produced before items like R4538 BR (Ex-SR) unconverted open 2nd class coach came out. The anticipated production date of this model was the second quarter of 2012 but it did not come until towards the end of 2013. I will be very pleased if the R4534A BR Pull-Push coach pack comes out before the end of this year. After the R4534 BR Pull-Push coach pack sold out within a few hours Hornby said that they would bring forward the production of the R4534A Push-Pull coach pack to Autumn 2012. I am still waiting. I have doubts about whether Hornby will have produced all the 2013 items by the end of this year let alone by the end of July based on Hornby's past performance.

 

Exactly, Robin. If you look at the items that have been outstanding for some time, such as the Pull-Push coach pack, Class 56 in LL, T9s, Castles, WC/BBs, these have been manufactured by Sanda Kan so far and I think we must assume will continue to do so. The latest versions of these now have in some cases release dates late in 2014 and perhaps even those might be missed. On the other hand, although they have taken longer than expected, the second batch of 2-BILs have already appeared and Hornby confirmed ages ago these were being manufactured in one of the new factories.

 

So I think we may need to look at the 2014 items in two blocks - those models to be made by Sanda Kan which we may or may not see this year, and those to be made by the new factories which should - based on what Hornby has said - arrive more or less as planned.

[Fenman]

So I think we may need to look at the 2014 items in two blocks - those models to be made by Sanda Kan which we may or may not see this year, and those to be made by the new factories which should - based on what Hornby has said - arrive more or less as planned.

 

I wonder if it would be more appropriate to start calling Sanda Kan "Sanda Kan/Bachmann". This might, at least, remind us that there are several players in this game, in a complex set of relationships.

 

Paul

[Paul Cram]

This is what a guest contributor thinks of us in his article on page 153 of Model Rail 191 Winter 2014. After admitting Hornby is not perfect he goes on to say that if we like to bash Hornby and complain about nothing changing in five years we should consider the following points:

1) He has told us that we are buying toys

2) We have no understanding of the issues

3) Our wish list of models has no impact on the issue

4) We are a bunch of tightwads who do not want to pay realistic prices for our models

 

I disagree with all these points. One distinction between a toy railway and a model railway is that a toy train is a representation of a train whereas a model railway is a realistic scale model. To me a model railway is a three dimensional picture and if we enjoy building this picture and running trains in it it is to our credit.

Then, by your own definition, it is a toy as the gauge is not scale.

[Dunsignalling]

Exactly, Robin. If you look at the items that have been outstanding for some time, such as the Pull-Push coach pack, Class 56 in LL, T9s, Castles, WC/BBs, these have been manufactured by Sanda Kan so far and I think we must assume will continue to do so. The latest versions of these now have in some cases release dates late in 2014 and perhaps even those might be missed. On the other hand, although they have taken longer than expected, the second batch of 2-BILs have already appeared and Hornby confirmed ages ago these were being manufactured in one of the new factories.

 

So I think we may need to look at the 2014 items in two blocks - those models to be made by Sanda Kan which we may or may not see this year, and those to be made by the new factories which should - based on what Hornby has said - arrive more or less as planned.

I don't think it at all certain that further versions of items originally produced by Sanda Kan (like the p/p set) will necessarily come from the same source.

 

SK's interview in the February Hornby mag includes a reference to the implications of moving tooling from one factory to another that runs different machinery.

 

John

[Dunsignalling]

Then, by your own definition, it is a toy as the gauge is not scale.

So is everything else unless it's coal-fired live steam!

[Paul Cram]

Only locos that run on steam produced from coal. Oil burners,. diesels, coaches, wagons etc. would be a different matter.

[Oakydoke]

I thought at least one of the two Sanda Kan factories was closed down 18 months ago, as part of Kader's rationalisation plan?

Some three or four dozen model railway brands like Hornby, have since been struggling to secure production facilities and capacity at the other model making companies.

[Dunsignalling]

Only locos that run on steam produced from coal. Oil burners,. diesels, coaches, wagons etc. would be a different matter.

P4 live diesel anyone?

 

No model in any of the smaller scales/gauges can ever be wholly authentic working miniature of its prototype and I venture to suggest 5" gauge is about the smallest where one could harbour such an ambition.

 

Hornby's more highly detailed models are completely unsuitable for use as toys (in the conventional sense) in that bits of them would be spread all over the carpet in a matter of minutes and you'd spend the rest of the day at the vet's getting them all removed from the dog!

 

We are all playing trains to a greater or lesser extent, however far apart we mount our wheels; the only difference is that some models get nearer to scale than others.

 

John

[Budgie]

The sales figures of models are a better indication of whether we are tightwads than comments in RMweb. It seems that people are not willing to pay over £100 extra for a locomotive fitted with sound which is why Hornby is now producing locomotives with sound for £25 extra.

I suspect many people are, like me, not really interested in buying locomotives with sound at all.

[Paul Cram]

P4 live diesel anyone?

 

No model in any of the smaller scales/gauges can ever be wholly authentic working miniature of its prototype and I venture to suggest 5" gauge is about the smallest where one could harbour such an ambition.

 

Hornby's more highly detailed models are completely unsuitable for use as toys (in the conventional sense) in that bits of them would be spread all over the carpet in a matter of minutes and you'd spend the rest of the day at the vet's getting them all removed from the dog!

 

We are all playing trains to a greater or lesser extent, however far apart we mount our wheels; the only difference is that some models get nearer to scale than others.

 

John

I'm not arguing with you. I was just pointing out the inconsistencies of Robin's statement

[Lowlander]

Hi

 

This maybe a daft question and has most likely been answered before, but I can't find it.

 

If Hornby knew well in advance that Sands kan were going bust. Why I wonder didn't Hornby buy them? They seemed to know when all their other acquisitions were ripe for buying. It would have saved all this carry on.

 

Stephen

[coachmann]

Then, by your own definition, it is a toy as the gauge is not scale.

Oh please.

[Dunsignalling]

Hi

 

This maybe a daft question and has most likely been answered before, but I can't find it.

 

If Hornby knew well in advance that Sands kan were going bust. Why I wonder didn't Hornby buy them? They seemed to know when all their other acquisitions were ripe for buying. It would have saved all this carry on.

 

Stephen

Three possible answers:

 

1. They didn't want to.

2. They couldn't afford to.

3. Kader Industries beat them to it or outbid them.

 

John

 

I'm not arguing with you. I was just pointing out the inconsistencies of Robin's statement

Pax.

 

John

[Andy Hayter]

This is what a guest contributor thinks of us in his article on page 153 of Model Rail 191 Winter 2014. After admitting Hornby is not perfect he goes on to say that if we like to bash Hornby and complain about nothing changing in five years we should consider the following points:

1) He has told us that we are buying toys

..................................................................

 

I disagree................One distinction between a toy railway and a model railway is that a toy train is a representation of a train whereas a model railway is a realistic scale model. To me a model railway is a three dimensional picture and if we enjoy building this picture and running trains in it it is to our credit.

 

 

With this Robin I agree entirely - but what I wrote and stand by, is that we "buy toys".  A BR Mk1 fro Hornby bought in the local model shop could end up on a train set circle, or could get the full Tony Wright treatment and form a part of a detailed rake.

 

It is our imagination and skills that make a set of toys into a model railway (and I won't be drawn into the scale or not argument).  But regardless, the purchase is a toy - and (as I wrote in the article) in industrial terms the manufacture of model railway items falls into the toy sector (is pigeon-holed if you prefer).

[tomparryharry]

This is what a guest contributor thinks of us in his article on page 153 of Model Rail 191 Winter 2014. After admitting Hornby is not perfect he goes on to say that if we like to bash Hornby and complain about nothing changing in five years we should consider the following points:

1) He has told us that we are buying toys

2) We have no understanding of the issues

3) Our wish list of models has no impact on the issue

4) We are a bunch of tightwads who do not want to pay realistic prices for our models

 

I disagree with all these points. One distinction between a toy railway and a model railway is that a toy train is a representation of a train whereas a model railway is a realistic scale model. To me a model railway is a three dimensional picture and if we enjoy building this picture and running trains in it it is to our credit.

Not quite, Robin.

 

I can see where the confusion might lie. When these 'toys' are made, they are made to an industrial scale. We're not talking ones or twos, more like 3 or 4 thousand, and that's where the difference lies. Money is tied up in production. Now machine time costs money. Ask a producer of plastic parts if he wants a production run of 500,000 parts, or a limited run of 3,000 parts. I know the answer, and it's not 3,000.

 

Production is a big issue; Many, many, thousands will be spent before the first proof gets assembled. Where will the product be made? Don't assume it's in the same factory as the last product from a company, it might even change location between batches... I've seen product 'proofed' in Cardiff, then boxed up, and shipped to Port Elizabeth, South Africa. That was all in a weeks work, BTW. Issues like this are rarely aired on these pages, as it's not always common knowledge. Hornby wouldn't put this on a web page for Joe Soap to read. The chances are that the average Hornby employee wouldn't know the issues, why should you?

 

To you, they are indeed scale models; not so the production company. They are a product made for disposable income, in a fickle market. (Example- "I won't buy that, it's got the wrong colour!). It all depends on the end user. Subjectivity is a wonderful thing...

 

Tightwads. Well, yes we are. If we were not, then the manufacturers would charge really what they like, and you really wouldn't like that... The difference would be that having a choice of a top-class model/toy, and a lesser detailed model, thrown together. When you get the lesser model, at top rate price, that's the point of complaint.

 

Wishlists. Well, they are so diverse, it's a minefield. It's best to go with established products, well researched, than the more esoteric requests. Hornby cannot hope to compete with the collective knowledge that exists on here, and they know it. To have an example again, there were about 15 posts on Bachmanns Dukedog pages, about a line of smokebox rivets being in the wrong place. No-one mentioned that a smokebox is a semi-disposable item on a steam locomotive, and what the rivets do.... (Yes, they do have a function, they form part of the plate work over the valves & cylinders). Can you reasonably expect Hornby to compete with that? Best sticking with 'known' vehicles, such as the 'star', even the, they got some of it wrong.... My chances of winning the lottery are better than seeing a Taff Vale I class tank locomotive made by Hornby/Bachmann, et al.

 

Behind the scenes, it's a battle to get stuff made, sometimes. We only see the end product, when we unwrap it at home, etc. Tell you what, hang on.... I'll unbox a Heljan class 14 diesel...

 

Lets see.. Locomotive & packaging... Apart from the locomotive, there are 17, no, 18 different & distinct pieces that go to form the enclosure box. no less that 5 of these are printed product. That's before we get to the 'toy' inside...

 

When a producer announces a 'new' model/toy, you can bet that there is/has been a period to get the product to market. Remember the golden rule:-

 

Rule number 1:- Time is money

Rule number 2:- Repeat rule number 1

 

I agree the Model Rail article was hard reading, but it was essentially true.

 

May I wish you good luck with your modelling exploits. Please don't get too excited when someone calls them 'toys'....

 

Ian

[Dunsignalling]

Repeating the established favourites ad infinitum is not viable simply because, sooner or later, most regular purchasers will have all they want of certain models.

 

Ex-SR and Ex-LNER Pacifics spring to mind and my collection of Bulleids (including several renamed ones) makes The Great Gathering sextet look like very small beer. 

 

I've ordered 'Okehampton' (a personal favourite) but I'm not bothering with 'Wincanton' (sound), 'Manston' (I have the previous one) or 'Exeter' (rebuilt before my main modelling period). I'd still like a few more, but I'll only be interested in other favourites or some further variations (eg 'Bude' c.1960, a rebuilt WC with the BR 5250 gallon tender or a MN from the first ten).

 

As for wishlists, I just don't believe the man; all four new locos announced this year have been well-placed in them for several years. Coincidence? I think not. 

 

John

[Nimbus]

Hi

 

This maybe a daft question and has most likely been answered before, but I can't find it.

 

If Hornby knew well in advance that Sands kan were going bust. Why I wonder didn't Hornby buy them? They seemed to know when all their other acquisitions were ripe for buying. It would have saved all this carry on.

 

Stephen

 

I vaguely recall reading that Hornby did make a bid for Sanda Kan, but were outgunned by Kader.

 

The Nim.

[Ozexpatriate]

I vaguely recall reading that Hornby did make a bid for Sanda Kan, but were outgunned by Kader.

From the 2009 Hornby Annual Report:

 

The most significant challenge has been to maintain continuity of supplies from our largest vendor in China. During the year this supplier faced serious financial problems arising from the debt burden it had carried since its heavily leveraged purchase by a venture capital investor in 2004. We maintained close contact with all interested parties during the greatest period of difficulty between July and November 2008. During this period, in order to ensure that our ongoing supplies would be protected, we incurred due diligence costs in a process that may have led to Hornby acquiring this supplier. These costs are identified separately in note 1*. In the event,the supplier was acquired in January 2009 by a well resourced Hong Kong company which is a well established supplier to the toy and model railway industries. We continue to work closely with the new owners to improve our supply chain performance.

* £221,000 "abortive due diligence costs"

 

If Hornby knew well in advance that Sands kan were going bust. Why I wonder didn't Hornby buy them? They seemed to know when all their other acquisitions were ripe for buying. It would have saved all this carry on.

Three possible answers:

 

1. They didn't want to.

2. They couldn't afford to.

3. Kader Industries beat them to it or outbid them.

 

My guess is a combination of 2 and 3, influenced by the presumed requirement to borrow the money to acquire Sanda Kan. Something was reported on this at some point, but I don't remember where.

[Ozexpatriate]

I thought at least one of the two Sanda Kan factories was closed down 18 months ago, as part of Kader's rationalisation plan?

Some three or four dozen model railway brands like Hornby, have since been struggling to secure production facilities and capacity at the other model making companies.

Yes. Sanda Kan ceased to exist when it was acquired by Kader Holdings. The factories that were formerly owned by Sanda Kan operated as Kader Manufacturing Services for a while but as you say, the one that produced Hornby models closed.

 

To say that Sanda Kan manufactures any Hornby models currently or over the last year or so is very misleading.

[Ron Ron Ron]

* £221,000 "abortive due diligence costs"

 

 

Surely a euphemism for something that involves grease and palms?

 

 

 

"....During this period, in order to ensure that our ongoing supplies would be protected, we incurred due diligence costs...."

 

 

.

[Coryton]

* £221,000 "abortive due diligence costs"

 

 

 

 

Surely a euphemism for something that involves grease and palms?

.

 

Presumably finding out what they would be getting themselves into if they bought it....?

 

I imagine it's a bit more complicated than buying a house...and that's bad enough.

[Andy Hayter]

Surely a euphemism for something that involves grease and palms?

 

 

 

 

 

.

 

Perhaps you would like to think that, but I can assure you that those costs are really quite small for a due diligence enquiry - and not one cent of palm greasing.  Indeed any due diligence that involved such activity should ring so many alarm bells that the deal would be off before it was on.

 

Fly out a team of say minimum 10 to Hong Kong for a minimum 3 weeks - more likely 2 months.  Team comprises:

Senior manager / coordinator for the study

2 senior accountants to go through the books like the authorities do - and maybe the bits of the books that the authorities don't (if you catch my drift).

1 Marketing Manger

2 assistant accountancy clerks - to do a lot of the detailed analysis of the books 

2 legal experts

1 real estate valuer

2 engineers

 

The last 3 at least will need to visit every single location owned by SK.  Probably they will need to accompanied by an accountant and a legal eagle.  The senior manager will probably also want to be present.

 

Add in a few interpreters - not everyone they will interview will speak English well - and possibly some other experts that need to look at some specific aspect of the business. 

 

And all the while these folks are in China you will need extra resource back in the UK to cover their activities.