First look set to lose Scotrail franchise

[The Stationmaster]

I'm wondering about some timescales here - maybe 'Chard can help?

 

IEP, according to Hitachi, is due to go into public service on the GWML in December 2017.  I'm not sure what that means in reality but Bristol electrification is scheduled, according to NR, to go live in May 2017 followed by Cardiff in December 2017.  What isn't clear is when the first GW IEPs will go into traffic but it clearly can't really be before May 2017 unless they are capable of running in diesel mode and obviously testing then crew training will have to preced squadron service operation.

 

So realistically the first HSTs look unlikely to be released before May 2017, and any earlier release depends on IEP possibly 'shadow running' in HST diagrams which means it will be essential that their performance under diesel power will match HST timings on both the Bristol and Swansea routes due to the nature of set diagrams.

 

So there are a whole lot of assumptions

 

1. That electrification to Bristol and Cardiff will be complete on planned dates

2. That if necessary pending electrification any bi-powered IEPs will be able to match HST performance because if they don't the degree of timetable collapse will be less than fun for FGW.

3. That sufficient IEPs will be in traffic and crews and artisans trained by firstly May and then December 2017 to allow release of HSTs for refurbishment.

4.  That even on planned IEP delivery and 'in service' dates there will be sufficient HST sets released to allow refurbishment plus Driver/artisan training in time to have the full 27 sets in service in Scotland by December 2018.

 

And various reports hint the GWML electrification could be running as much as 6 months late although some catch-up is likely.

[Glorious NSE]

Another variable to speculate on, I would have thought that if retained and upgraded HSTs is still the plan for West Country workings on FGW, then FGW would be wanting to kick off a rebuild program of their own ASAP, which might mean that even if IEP does start freeing up HSTs, FGW may want to release their own "owned" sets initially to be refurbished?

 

Or, given that the Scottish trains look to be set for a major rebuild for this, does FGW just sign up on the same production line...

 

(Just add Saltire or Neon stickers as needed after you paint it blue)  

[Bon Accord]

Isn't IEP due to be introduced on the ECML in early 2018, thereby freeing up quite a few HST's on that side as well?

[Richard E]

My understanding from Wikipedia is that East Coast have around 14 HST sets on their strength with, possibly, two spare power cars. However according to DOR website it is just 11 sets.

['CHARD]

I'm wondering about some timescales here - maybe 'Chard can help?

 

Were my ears burning...?     Let me consult my endless spreadsheets and graphs....  (rubs hands and cackles)

 

My exhaustive database, updated to reflect the most recent round of IEP undertakings, franchise commitments (known about) and Direct Awards (to FGW) shows:  HSTs surplus from Great Western during 2017, and from East Coast during 2018.

 

I think that bears out your thinking, Mike.

['CHARD]

My understanding from Wikipedia is that East Coast have around 14 HST sets on their strength with, possibly, two spare power cars. However according to DOR website it is just 11 sets.

 

16 pairs of power cars

14 sets

5 spare coaches

[Phatbob]

^{Firstly, congratulations to Abellio on winning the franchise.  I'd like to say, based on my experience as a punter, that Scotland is likely to see more inovation and "proper railway thinking" from the likes of Abellio than the UK bus companies (and airlines) who also happen to run trains.  IMHO with the likes of First, Arriva and Stagecoach you'll get a "plain Vanilla" franchise which does what it says in the contract, but nothing else.  The UK ToCs run by Johnny Forigners' own railways tend to have a bit more about them in my experience.  Certainly, I've been impressed by what they've been up to on Merseyside.  Hopefully Scotland will also see station shop-come-ticket-offices and all that good stuff for cyclists that have appeared on the Merseyrail network.  Both excellent ideas.  You have only to wonder that Merseyside electric get such a high customer satisfaction score when running commuter services with the oldest fleet on the UK mainland, when certain intercity operators running out of Liverpool with "posh" brand new rolling stock get such poor scores.  Fingers crossed that all bodes well for Scotland. :-)}

[The Stationmaster]

^{Firstly, congratulations to Abellio on winning the franchise.  I'd like to say, based on my experience as a punter, that Scotland is likely to see more inovation and "proper railway thinking" from the likes of Abellio than the UK bus companies (and airlines) who also happen to run trains.  IMHO with the likes of First, Arriva and Stagecoach you'll get a "plain Vanilla" franchise which does what it says in the contract, but nothing else.  The UK ToCs run by Johnny Forigners' own railways tend to have a bit more about them in my experience.  Certainly, I've been impressed by what they've been up to on Merseyside.  Hopefully Scotland will also see station shop-come-ticket-offices and all that good stuff for cyclists that have appeared on the Merseyrail network.  Both excellent ideas.  You have only to wonder that Merseyside electric get such a high customer satisfaction score when running commuter services with the oldest fleet on the UK mainland, when certain intercity operators running out of Liverpool with "posh" brand new rolling stock get such poor scores.  Fingers crossed that all bodes well for Scotland. :-)}

Sounds like they're very different branch of Abellio from the one in East Anglia!

[Talltim]

Presumably IEP testing on the ECML can happen sooner, if they get them built as they don't have to wait for the infrastructure to be built?

[The Stationmaster]

Presumably IEP testing on the ECML can happen sooner, if they get them built as they don't have to wait for the infrastructure to be built?

But I think on the GW the depot infrastructure will also precede ECML depot changes

[MRDEEDIESEL]

Class 158's and 170's "buses" binned and replaced by Blue liveried HST's and possible Loco Hauled services!! Wow...just wow!!!!

I will believe it when i see it though!

Sounds great though.

[AngusDe]

I think the "Inter City" revamp is long overdue.

 

10 years ago I was commuting weekly from Elgin for 3 years, and for 10 months from Aberdeen to Fife, and the 170 and 158 combo's were terrible for such long journeys. Personally, thanks to the vestibules, the 158s were better as a 170 to/from Aberdeen on a cold sub freezing winters evening was grim as at every station the howling Easterly swirled the freezing fog around the carriage, not a nice ambience at all. I sought out EC or XC services whenever I could, even if it meant a longer journey, picking up the EC service at Edinburgh for Inverness on a Sunday evening was always my first choice for my return to Elgin. My only worry on my post night shift return to Fife was not waking for Inverkeithing....

 

It is odd to think that the ScotRail 47 push pull era brought Mk3 standards to these services so long ago, and yet even now, matching that level of comfort remains an aspiration!

 

Angus

[Reorte]

It is odd to think that the ScotRail 47 push pull era brought Mk3 standards to these services so long ago, and yet even now, matching that level of comfort remains an aspiration!

All too true of too many routes throughout the country but the distances in Scotland emphasise it all the more. It's the sort of thing that's rather put me off "progress".

[Christopher125]

80 EMUs seems an awful lot! Do they mean 80 vehicles eg 20 x 4 cars?

The Darlington & Stockton Times give the following numbers for the EMU order:

 

"Hitachi will supply 70 trains and 234 carriages, which will run on electrified lines between Edinburgh and Glasgow and lines passing through Stirling, Alloa and Dunblane. The AT200 commuter trains will operate from 2017". It seems the extra 10 are an option which can be taken up at a later date.

 

As for the wider franchise, it's looking like the 27 HSTs alongside electrification will free up much of the 170 fleet - these could then cascade refurbished 158s to the various 'scenic' routes with the likely casualties being the 156s.

 

Chris

[Cornish Triang Paul]

Wonder what the scenic observation coaches will be like.....?

[Richard E]

16 pairs of power cars

14 sets

5 spare coaches

Thank you, that is the number of sets and power cars that I'd seen quoted on Wiki so that is correct (for once)! Seems even DOR, who updated their website fairly recently, don't know what stock they lease.

[Jamie]

Wonder what the scenic observation coaches will be like.....?

I've missed any reference to observation coaches, but based on most of the 'scenic railways' identified in the brochure I'm guessing they will look like refurbished 156/158 units.

[lmsforever]

Noting the discussion about inter city services for Scotland did not the push pull units work services away from Glasgow Edinburgh axis /

[MRDEEDIESEL]

It always astonished me that Scottish Inter City services went from lenghthy loco hauled stock to 2 or 3 car units.A turbo to me is like a class 101 on the Arbroath to Dundee stopping services and in no way can be described as a long distance Inter City train!Please tell me that common sense has now prevailed!!!!! Some 68 power would be nice and modern......but only if the Class 37's provide cover!!! ;o)

[beast66606]

Sounds like they're very different branch of Abellio from the one in East Anglia!

 

From my experience it's a very different Abellio - when dealing with abusive staff the Merseyside team took the information, the evidence and dealt with it within a couple of weeks, down here, Greater Anglia, it took nearly 2 years and I had to counter their lies (no other word for it) on many occasions (but they paid up in the end).

[Reorte]

It always astonished me that Scottish Inter City services went from lenghthy loco hauled stock to 2 or 3 car units.A turbo to me is like a class 101 on the Arbroath to Dundee stopping services and in no way can be described as a long distance Inter City train!Please tell me that common sense has now prevailed!!!!! Some 68 power would be nice and modern......but only if the Class 37's provide cover!!! ;o)

It's happened all over the place on almost everything other than main London routes, not just Scotland. The 185s on Manchester to Glasgow are my pet bugbear (although mostly replaced recently).

[scottishlocos]

It always astonished me that Scottish Inter City services went from lenghthy loco hauled stock to 2 or 3 car units.A turbo to me is like a class 101 on the Arbroath to Dundee stopping services and in no way can be described as a long distance Inter City train!Please tell me that common sense has now prevailed!!!!! Some 68 power would be nice and modern......but only if the Class 37's provide cover!!! ;o)

Has nobody suggested DUTCH livery class 37's yet it all sounds goods they have some great plans for the Routes of Scotland

 

Dave

[beast66606]

From my experience it's a very different Abellio - when dealing with abusive staff the Merseyside team took the information, the evidence and dealt with it within a couple of weeks, down here, Greater Anglia, it took nearly 2 years and I had to counter their lies (no other word for it) on many occasions (but they paid up in the end).

 

Bob S - you cannot disagree with FACTS - try trolling elsewhere

[PaulG]

^{Firstly, congratulations to Abellio on winning the franchise.  I'd like to say, based on my experience as a punter, that Scotland is likely to see more inovation and "proper railway thinking" from the likes of Abellio than the UK bus companies (and airlines) who also happen to run trains.  IMHO with the likes of First, Arriva and Stagecoach you'll get a "plain Vanilla" franchise which does what it says in the contract, but nothing else.  The UK ToCs run by Johnny Forigners' own railways tend to have a bit more about them in my experience.  Certainly, I've been impressed by what they've been up to on Merseyside.  Hopefully Scotland will also see station shop-come-ticket-offices and all that good stuff for cyclists that have appeared on the Merseyrail network.  Both excellent ideas.  You have only to wonder that Merseyside electric get such a high customer satisfaction score when running commuter services with the oldest fleet on the UK mainland, when certain intercity operators running out of Liverpool with "posh" brand new rolling stock get such poor scores.  Fingers crossed that all bodes well for Scotland. :-)}

 

I've travelled into London Liverpool Street since BR days (20 plus years) and Abellio are by any measure, the poorest operator; I would say First were the best for users ( probably due to the First managers, some of whom were ex BR and knew the route well) and there was a campaign by passengers to retain them when the franchise was relet.

 

As Abellio are part owned by the Dutch State Railway, it's nice to know the profits will be going to support rail passengers in Holland!

 

Paul

[phil-b259]

The Darlington & Stockton Times give the following numbers for the EMU order:

 

"Hitachi will supply 70 trains and 234 carriages, which will run on electrified lines between Edinburgh and Glasgow and lines passing through Stirling, Alloa and Dunblane. The AT200 commuter trains will operate from 2017". It seems the extra 10 are an option which can be taken up at a later date.

 

As for the wider franchise, it's looking like the 27 HSTs alongside electrification will free up much of the 170 fleet - these could then cascade refurbished 158s to the various 'scenic' routes with the likely casualties being the 156s.

 

Chris

 

Its rumoured that Southern will be after some of those 170s (which unlike the 15X fleet will, after some modifications, be compatible with the 171s) so they can extend the Uckfield line trains as promised in the recent franchise documents (Chiltern having snaffled the ones coming off lease from Northern shortly) as they will become available before the Overground versions due to the electrification timescales for the GOBLN route.