10 years down - what could the future look like?

[rodshaw]

Wouldn't wireless electricity be nice? I don't mean as in toothbrush-charging or battery operation, I mean all electricity, even high-voltage. It gets channelled through the air from the generator in shielded packets, and is then directed locally by some kind of router at exactly what appliance needs it, without harming anything it passes through and with the voltage being automatically adjusted for the appliance. No wires or cables involved. There's a fortune awaiting the inventor.

[Ozexpatriate]

There's a fortune awaiting the inventor.

Or not. See Nikola Tesla.

[The Stationmaster]

Many more of the baby-boomers will have passed on, and with them will go the inflated pensions that have helped bankroll the present glut of RTR models.

What exactly is 'an inflated pension' please?  

 

From what I have observed in many places a lot of the past r-t-r multiple purchasing seems not to come from those of us who are pensioners but from those who are complaining (justifiably no doubt) about reduced income.  I continue to cross my fingers that in 10 years from now I might still be around to continue spending any disposable monies left over from my three pensions - all of which I paid for and of which one was at one time consuming 12% of my income and which never consumed less than 7% of it.  Pensions are basically no more than deferred income and the simple fact is you can't have it twice - you either get it when you are working or it is put aside at that time to save it for retirement, hoping that the interest will protect it against inflation and even improve on it, and that you live long enough to spend it.

 

As none of this has the slightest relevance to this thread I shall accordingly be reporting this post and hoping that the thread can return to what it was seemingly meant to be about.

[dibber25]

I'm told that the overall decline in the market in 2014 was 7% - that's magazines (print AND digital) and that's been a long-running trend as older modellers die off. It shouldn't come as any surprise, bearing in mind that my generation were the 'bulge' in railway modelling, we're now coming to the end of the line, and we knew 30 years ago that there weren't enough young people coming into the hobby to replace us. I don't think for a moment that the hobby will die out any more than painting, fishing, cabinet-making or classic cars as hobbies will die out, but I do see railway modelling contracting in numbers and - to judge from other threads on RMweb - returning to being a hobby for the more 'well-heeled'. I note, too, the diminishing numbers of posts on RMweb from readers of the 'big four' magazines. Are magazine readers now bored with forums? Or, are forums catering to a different segment of the market - those who don't read magazines, either print or digital? I can't believe that the magazines have ceased to make mistakes that forum users would rush to point out, or that all our subscription services have suddenly become perfect! I agree with the comment that the golden age of Facebook is past but I think the boom in digital, on-line and forums may also have reached its peak, at least until something new and different comes along. Print magazines have always had to re-invent themselves every few years. Maybe the same is true of social media.

Mr. Bedford seems to begrudge us baby boomers our very existence as well as the pensions into which we paid all our lives. Given the fact that my current financial position and my purchases of a glut of RTR models are largely due to my wife's life insurance paying off my mortgage so that I can spend my income on model railways, I have to say, I'd give up the hobby if I could have her back. I preferred the comment elsewhere on RMweb to the effect that we baby boomers - with luck - could expect another 15 years in which to splash out on the RTR models we've waited years for!

CHRIS LEIGH

[coachmann]

Speaking as a baby boomer, I wonder if Mr. Bedford himself pays taxes when he has so many ways of people off spending with him!

[Ozexpatriate]

Lots of food for thought here Chris.

I'm told that the overall decline in the market in 2014 was 7% - that's magazines (print AND digital) and that's been a long-running trend as older modellers die off.

That's interesting data.
 

... but I do see railway modelling contracting in numbers and - to judge from other threads on RMweb - returning to being a hobby for the more 'well-heeled'.

As indeed it was in the beginning. I don't quite see it being the preserve of the super rich however. Excepting those who were happy to join clubs, with space constraints for layouts (even shunting planks) it always was a hobby for those with larger homes. That is a constant - even in smaller scales. Most N scalers run longer trains.
 

I note, too, the diminishing numbers of posts on RMweb from readers of the 'big four' magazines. Are magazine readers now bored with forums? Or, are forums catering to a different segment of the market - those who don't read magazines, either print or digital?

I am a forum participant and not a UK magazine reader. I do subscribe to Model Railroader. Honestly I just never bothered to figure out how to subscribe as a foreigner, but know that I miss a lot of good information and should probably sort that out. Mind you I know in that regard I am a very insignificant minority. I am also a reluctant subscriber. Once a subscriber I seem to keep subscriptions (and the magazines) for ever.
 

I think the boom in digital, on-line and forums may also have reached its peak, at least until something new and different comes along. Print magazines have always had to re-invent themselves every few years. Maybe the same is true of social media.

I think it is certainly true that RMweb will re-invent itself at some point particularly as technology like augmented reality which I mentioned earlier becomes more accessible but empirically it doesn't look like RMweb has 'peaked' at least in terms of membership, contribution and activity even if too much of it is focused (my own contributions included) on circular commercial pricing 'debates'.

 

This thread is all about how RMweb might reinvent itself.

[Oldddudders]

I'm told that the overall decline in the market in 2014 was 7% - that's magazines (print AND digital) and that's been a long-running trend as older modellers die off. It shouldn't come as any surprise, bearing in mind that my generation were the 'bulge' in railway modelling, we're now coming to the end of the line, and we knew 30 years ago that there weren't enough young people coming into the hobby to replace us. I don't think for a moment that the hobby will die out any more than painting, fishing, cabinet-making or classic cars as hobbies will die out, but I do see railway modelling contracting in numbers and - to judge from other threads on RMweb - returning to being a hobby for the more 'well-heeled'.

All sorts of things are in decline. Try this as an industry-watcher's view of camera sales in recent years. http://www.dslrbodies.com/newsviews/can-you-live-on-less.html

 

As far as RMweb's future is concerned, I share the view that a search facility that worked with the existing software would be a boon right now. Google really doesn't do what I want any of the time.