Oxford N7

[coachmann]

On the opposite side of the coin, half a Century ago I casually mentioned to GEM that a Belpaire firebox boiler would go down well with LMS modellers on the LNWR Prince of Wales and LNWR 4-4-0 kits... 

 

W-h-a-a-a-t-t-t???!!!!  

Edited February 2, 2017 by coachmann

[Pint of Adnams]

I seem to remember that Hornby planned a N7 back in the eighties.

There was an article in one of the modelling magazines by Pat Hammond titled 'Ghost Models' and the first part concerned the LNER and types that Hornby had considered. Four potential locomotives were described and illustrated including the N7/3, J36, V1 and V2 and a further four were listed including the B1,J69, Peppercorn A1 and J94.

[Dunsignalling]

There are some fantastic pre grouping liveries that could generate a market. I'll bet there were a lot of BR steam modellers that bought Bachmanns SE&CR C class because it looked so good. I was a bit late off the mark on that one , I certainly considered it, even though I'd have nothing to run it with and it's completely outside my area (Scotland) or time period. On the other hand there is the LB&SCR E4 that's still sitting on shelves , although Bachmann price increases happened in between.

 

Sounds like Oxford have it covered though with GER through to early BR . I'm sure late BR will appear soon. And surely this is the best way for all. Models that are pre grouping that lasted through to Late BR , like a Caley 812 !

The problem in that post is one word - "generate".

 

Whilst the manufacturers appear to be unable to deliver stuff they know will sell, on time and/or in sufficient numbers to fulfil demand, why would they take a flyer on something for which they can only guess at the size of the market?

 

Your examples of the C and E4 sum up their dilemma in a nutshell - had Bachmann made another 1,000 of the C in the fully-lined SECR livery would they have all sold, or were there only a few dozen of us who missed out on getting one? Had they made 500 fewer of the LBSCR E4, would that have been enough?

 

One big snag is that a high proportion of sales might depend on the application of "Rule One" by the purchaser. It seems clear that many of us have become far more selective about what we buy because of rising prices. If a pre-group beauty emerges alongside several items falling into our regular interests, which doesn't get bought?

 

The demand for BR era models is reasonably certain (within limits) so nobody ends up with too many leftovers. By contrast, pre-1923 is much more complicated to cater for, after all, it covers a very long timescale. If you decided to equal the 25 years the Big Four lasted, that only takes you back to 1898; if you go for the 20 years of BR steam, 1903.

 

A lot of potentially popular loco subjects pre-date either of those by a considerable margin - if you take it back to 1878 (though that's probably a decade too far IMHO), the era lasted as long as the Big Four and BR steam combined. If we cut off at 1888, we could include quite a lot of prototypes that lasted into BR days but in the 35 years to grouping, many would have been altered and all would have carried the liveries specified by several successive Locomotive Superintendents, some of whom changed their ideas during their tenure. 

 

That suggests, for most subjects, at least four liveries to chose from, and quite possibly six. I wouldn't want to be the one choosing and the existence of a reasonably predictable market that seems able to keep the industry going at a level it is comfortable with, means that nobody else has to.

 

John 

Edited February 7, 2017 by Dunsignalling

[Stevelewis]

Quite  agree  with  the  above,  I think  that  there  is  some  misunderstanding  by  some  of  the  actual  size  of  the  market  for  model  railways  these  days,  whereas  in  my  early   Modelling  days  loco runs   would  be  in thousands,  these  days  they  are   far  less, 

 

Some  retailers  have commented  how  they are  sometimes  surprised  how  long  it  actually  takes  to  sell  through  stocks  of  new  releases,  which  they ordered  in 'moderate' quantities based on  their own   retail   sales  experience,  which  after  the   first  'flurry'  of  initial 'new model' sales  have  sat  on  their  shelves  for  months  ( and sometimes  many  months!)   Even  though  they  'price match'  the  box  shifters

Edited February 7, 2017 by Stevelewis

[Synch]

It always depends with pre-grouping engines, I myself as a modeller of pre-BR can understand why some things will just never end up being made!  This hobby is based around nostalgia.  I'm certainly glad tho that we have what we do, never would have dreamed of owning an rtr Ivatt Atlantic, or a GCR liveried J11.

 

The C and the E4 situation is certainly an odd one, the SECR liveries flew off the shelves for one reason or another, but they all did sell within a reasonable timeframe.  The E4's have just stagnated, along with some of the BR liveried C's.  Maybe because the preserved C is more noticed then the E4 currently?  Not sure on that one.

[Dick Turpin]

I would doubt that too many purchasers of pre-grouping special edition models actually model pre-group and run these models as such, rather they go to people who just fancy them, or collectors whoever they are. Mind you I have a couple, and they are of the area I generally model, so if I can gather together/build/collect enough stock I can wind the clock back and have a 1910 session, say, in the same way I can wind it forward and have a ‘60s session, which I do already, it just takes more effort. Mind you the more items that hit the market, the easier that gets, and the more people will get tempted and drawn in – and there’s you market starting to form.

[Dunsignalling]

It always depends with pre-grouping engines, I myself as a modeller of pre-BR can understand why some things will just never end up being made!  This hobby is based around nostalgia.  I'm certainly glad tho that we have what we do, never would have dreamed of owning an rtr Ivatt Atlantic, or a GCR liveried J11.

 

The C and the E4 situation is certainly an odd one, the SECR liveries flew off the shelves for one reason or another, but they all did sell within a reasonable timeframe.  The E4's have just stagnated, along with some of the BR liveried C's.  Maybe because the preserved C is more noticed then the E4 currently?  Not sure on that one.

For various reasons, I didn't try to get a C until about two weeks after release, and couldn't find one. My local dealer had pre-sold his allocation months earlier.

 

Had I got one, I had it I'm mind to assemble a "Bluebell" collection including the E4 and the buildings but, the C was pivotal to the plan and I was not willing to pay the inflated aftermarket prices required to get one. With hindsight, £135 looks quite reasonable!

 

I therefore junked the whole idea so, at least in my case, non-availability of one model led to non-purchase of several others. 

 

John  

Edited February 8, 2017 by Dunsignalling

[Talltim]

It always depends with pre-grouping engines, I myself as a modeller of pre-BR can understand why some things will just never end up being made! This hobby is based around nostalgia. I'm certainly glad tho that we have what we do, never would have dreamed of owning an rtr Ivatt Atlantic, or a GCR liveried J11.

 

The C and the E4 situation is certainly an odd one, the SECR liveries flew off the shelves for one reason or another, but they all did sell within a reasonable timeframe. The E4's have just stagnated, along with some of the BR liveried C's. Maybe because the preserved C is more noticed then the E4 currently? Not sure on that one.

Or maybe green is more attractive than brown?

[Downer]

Isn't this the N7 thread?

[Dick Turpin]

Isn't this the N7 thread?

In the absence of actual tangential N7 materials to debate, the discussion has widened temporarily to include the concept of modelling pre-grouping generally, something the Belpaire version will help facilitate. So many of us are overjoyed by that Oxford have decided to go for the Belpaire version with all its historical modelling possibilities that we need to celebrate with plenty of related discussion. Please don't try to put too much of a downer on things, trust me, once the CADs and first samples emerge, and a few experts have explained to us all at length that the Belpaire firebox is in fact the wrong shape, we will all wish for the round topped version and most people will be tired of the N7 thread being relentlessly on topic. Go on, have a whisky, imagine life before the Grouping and join the discussion. Go on you know you want to. Go on, go on!

[adb968008]

There are some fantastic pre grouping liveries that could generate a market. I'll bet there were a lot of BR steam modellers that bought Bachmanns SE&CR C class because it looked so good. I was a bit late off the mark on that one , I certainly considered it, even though I'd have nothing to run it with and it's completely outside my area (Scotland) or time period. On the other hand there is the LB&SCR E4 that's still sitting on shelves , although Bachmann price increases happened in between.

 

Sounds like Oxford have it covered though with GER through to early BR . I'm sure late BR will appear soon. And surely this is the best way for all. Models that are pre grouping that lasted through to Late BR , like a Caley 812 !

 

I think part of the problem with the LBSC, was that unlike the 'C' it wasnt preserved.

 

The collectors club edition of Birch Grove in it's rendition of LBSC sold out quite quick and commands a premium, and it is both preserved yet in an inaccurate "official" livery, but it did run on BR in that livery in preservation.

 

In my mind part of the popularity of a pre-grouping livery is peoples familiarity with that livery.., that said black swans command a premium and I reckon LBSC 4-4-2 will go nicely, if it's carrying the right number.

[DougN]

Umm, as per my thoughts yesterday... I think I would like one, in LNER with sound. I have a quids kit some where in the one day box. Could be a nice diversion for my OO which is RTR. I wonder if I put all the other projects to the side (I wont list them as there are SOOOOO many....) on just the kit. Maybe not with all the grabs, handles etc..But running in OO could be very nice. 

 

OK I a breaking my own rule of not kit building for OO when I should be doing it for the P4 stuff! any how its my modelling time so I guess I should make the decision. This might even get my modelling mojo back again too. 

 

So then by the time the N7 comes out I will have the appropriate train to run behind it.

 

Well I have dug out the kit... seems that the bodies were put together... not sure if I did that or not?

 

Any how having dug out the various bits I can see I need a few things. Does any one know what the turnbuckles are that are required for each of the coaches as for some reason some of the bits have gone west... any how I think I can do most of the bodies and the bogies... some how I have managed to get too many of those! I think I might be able to do this before Oxford manage to get their loco released!

[34theletterbetweenB&D]

The turnbuckles for your Quin set will be for the truss rod bracing, four per vehicle body. Cannot name a current source for suitable brass lost wax castings, but someone here is bound to know.

[Steamport Southport]

Dart Castings/MJT and Comet/Wizard make them and other useful parts.

 

 

Jason

[DougN]

Yes I have been looking at the Dart Casting website and the MJT range. I noted in my internet trawl that one person had recommended the 60ft version for the 50ft coach bodies as the bogie centres are increased. I am just unsure about the shorter bodies if it is better to buy the 51ft and cut them down to suit or is there another solution. 

 

I have also decided that I will stick with the Kirk bogies rather than upgrading to MJT as this is for OO rather than my more detailed outings on P4! Let alone the problem of heavy duty bogies rather than standard! I must pull out some of my reference material and go through it and see what I can figure out!

[Edwardian]

Who knows what goes on in the minds of Collectors, many of whom seem to go for any pretty thing, regardless of accuracy.

 

A locomotive in fully Wainwright livery, brass dome etc is amongst the prettiest things one could make.  Probably coincidental to many Collectors that it's a fine an accurate model to boot!

 

The umber E4 is a thing of very great beauty, but to compare its restrained Edwardian livery with Wainwright's exuberance is a little unfair.  I suspect something like Gladstone, in IEG, would make a better comparison with the C.

 

But aside from that, the fact that an item spends a helpfully long time in the catalogue (the way things used to) rather than sells out in 5 minutes, is not, for me, evidence of stagnation.

 

The C in the full Wainwright livery was made in absurdly small numbers and once the Collectors latched onto it, the rest of us were doomed.  The E4 is still around in all liveries.  There is no evidence I have seen to suggest that the E4 is a commercially underperforming model or that the umber version is relatively neglected. 

 

The N7 is a different proposition again.  It's a late pre-Grouping design and, save one in ultramarine, its GE livery is restricted to the plain and rather sombre grey. SE&CR Moguls and Cs have been produced in grey (albeit I think in limited numbers), so it is certainly not an unsaleable livery, but the N7 will not be really comparable to either the E4 or C.

 

The locomotives made RTR may lead the fashion to an extent.  The N7 is very much too late in terms of my GE interests, but if Oxford make a decent fist of an grey L77, I will certainly support them with both my enthusiasm and a sale (making myself a mere Collector until such time as I come up with a layout and string of GE Suburban coaches that allow me to use it!).

Edited April 27, 2017 by Edwardian

[Dunsignalling]

 

 

But aside from that, the fact that an item spends a helpfully long time in the catalogue (the way things used to) rather than sells out in 5 minutes, is not, for me, evidence of stagnation.

 

The C in the full Wainwright livery was made in absurdly small numbers and once the Collectors latched onto it, the rest of us were doomed.  The E4 is still around in all liveries.  There is no evidence I have seen to suggest that the E4 is a commercially underperforming model or that the umber version is relatively neglected. 

 

 

A need to sell products through reasonably quickly decides the commercial health of model manufacturers and retailers these days, whether they, you or I like it or not.

 

Things like the full Wainwright liveried C and Hornby's Pecketts were exceptional and it appears that certain of the air-smoothed MNs will fall into the same category.  

 

Neither manufacturers nor retailers derive any benefit from inflated secondary market prices being realised for such products. All they see is disappointed would-be customers who are just as likely to use unspent cash outside the model railway sphere as within it and wasted opportunities to have made a greater return.

 

Some versions of the Bachmann E4 must have been around for a couple of years by now and, if I were a retailer with such stock still sitting on the shelves, I'd certainly consider it was "commercially underperforming". 

 

I understand your desire to defend models of pre-grouping prototypes, particularly those produced in pre-1923 liveries; to encourage future releases. However, I have seen most versions of the E4 (though not all at once) being offered for sale at shows and swap-meets for as little as £59.95 with no evidence of life-threatening stampedes.

 

By any measure, Bachmann's estimation of demand for the "fancy" version of the C was significantly awry in one direction and for the E4 (in almost all its forms) in the other. My guess is that the latter was simply an over-correction influenced, in hindsight, by the former.

 

John

Edited April 27, 2017 by Dunsignalling

[Edwardian]

A need to sell products through reasonably quickly affects the commercial health of model manufacturers and retailers these days, whether they, you or I like it or not.

 

Things like the full Wainwright liveried C and Hornby's Pecketts were exceptional and it appears that certain of the air-smoothed MNs will fall into the same category.  

 

Neither manufacturers nor retailers derive any benefit from inflated secondary market prices being realised for such products. All they see is disappointed would-be customers who are just as likely to use the unspent cash outside the model railway sphere as within it and wasted opportunities to have made a greater return on their development/tooling costs.

 

Some versions of the Bachmann E4 must have been around for a couple of years by now and, if I were a retailer with such stock still sitting on the shelves, I'd certainly consider it was "commercially underperforming". 

 

I understand your desire to defend pre-group models in general and those in pre-1923 liveries in particular, to encourage future releases. However, I have seen most versions of the E4 being offered for sale at various shows (though not all at once) for as little as £59.95 with no evidence of life-threatening stampedes.

 

By any measure, Bachmann's estimation of demand for the fancy version of the C was significantly awry in one direction and for the E4 (in almost all its forms) in the other. My guess is that the latter was simply an over-correction influenced by the experience of the former.

 

John

 

I don't disagree.  The fully lined C and the Pecketts were exceptions.  My only point of potential difference with you is that all versions of the E4, including BR versions, are still around in numbers. So, just as I think it is meaningless to compare the umber E4 with the fully lined C, it is not, I think, right to single out the pre-Group E4 as a slow seller.

Edited April 27, 2017 by Edwardian

[JSpencer]

I don't disagree. The fully lined C and the Pecketts were exceptions. My only point of potential difference with you is that all versions of the E4, including BR versions, are still around in numbers. So, just as I think it is meaningless to compare the umber E4 with the fully lined C, it is not, I think, right to single out the pre-Group E4 as a slow seller.

Hattons said they sold something like 4000 E4s, so I suspect Bachmann over compensated on numbers following the C experience which was also impacted by a price hike. The E4 is rather an odd subject, I was surprised Bachmann even announced it. the C by contrast was quite widespread and a general purpose light weight goods engine.

Edited April 27, 2017 by JSpencer

[JSpencer]

For various reasons, I didn't try to get a C until about two weeks after release, and couldn't find one. My local dealer had pre-sold his allocation months earlier.

 

Had I got one, I had it I'm mind to assemble a "Bluebell" collection including the E4 and the buildings but, the C was pivotal to the plan and I was not willing to pay the inflated aftermarket prices required to get one. With hindsight, £135 looks quite reasonable!

 

I therefore junked the whole idea so, at least in my case, non-availability of one model led to non-purchase of several others.

 

John

 

Even with a C, there is some catching up to do. Personally, I have another 9 locos of their collection to get, though I cheated in several cases by building kits or re numbering other models to get this far. For certain locos, I have a few models showing it at different moments (the E4 twice, the Radial 3 times). The oldest model is the Hornby Stowe. Ok, back to topic.

 

Preserved locos have always sold well, so including those in the initial batch can help recover money - something Bachmann does but not always Hornby.

Edited April 27, 2017 by JSpencer

[Hroth]

What with the continuing Dean Goods debacle, I'd hold off on getting too excited by the N7. I'd certainly take the Nov/Dec 2017 delivery time that Hattons are quoting with a pinch of salt!  It'd be nice to be wrong, but for 2017, probably read 2018 ...

[Dunsignalling]

I don't disagree.  The fully lined C and the Pecketts were exceptions.  My only point of potential difference with you is that all versions of the E4, including BR versions, are still around in numbers. So, just as I think it is meaningless to compare the umber E4 with the fully lined C, it is not, I think, right to single out the pre-Group E4 as a slow seller.

Agreed, the problem seems to be an oversupply of all versions of the E4, except possibly that in SR-livery, which seems to be the only one it takes any effort to find. 

 

I note that Bachmann are intending to release another SR model and a further lined black BR version, too. With the previous incarnation of the latter still plentiful, I'd suggest that only the green one is really a good idea this year, and possibly next.

 

I do worry a little over Oxford having chosen the version of N7 that they have. It does lie somewhat "on the cusp" of the pre-grouping era, after the expensive, elaborate liveries had been toned down a lot. To something quite austere in this case, not unlike the late SECR livery which Bachmann tend to offer in small numbers to their Collectors' Club. 

 

Will the collectors and rule-one merchants that are dependably attracted to the flashy stuff look twice at it?

 

If it has to rely on sales to modellers only, I think it may struggle. The BR livery offered will be a hybrid LNER/BR concoction that probably didn't last beyond the early months of 1950, so that may not provide the "base-load" that BR versions generally do and levels of sales to group-era enthusiasts will be more critical than usual.

 

Upon reflection, Oxford were rather brave in picking this one. It would have been much safer, commercially, to go for round-topped firebox versions and concentrate on the post-grouping and BR eras. I hope their courage pays off in financial terms.

 

John (Back on topic)

Edited April 28, 2017 by Dunsignalling

[Classsix T]

I'm speculating here, but I'd not see it beyond the realms of possibility that after a few more meet and greets with the general public, Oxford may well decide to go with the round-topped firebox version first after all. Phrases such as "due to overwhelming desire" coming to mind.

 

A shame for the pre-grouping brethren but if money talks..?

 

I'd certainly entertain maybe two BR versions, a late and an early crest example.

 

C6T.

[Downer]

After reflection, I've cancelled my pre-order for the early BR Belpaire version, which I don't really want, deciding instead to wait for a couple of the round-topped ones that actually suit my needs. A longer wait no doubt, but it seems more sensible.

[JSpencer]

The C in the full Wainwright livery was made in absurdly small numbers and once the Collectors latched onto it, the rest of us were doomed.  The E4 is still around in all liveries.  There is no evidence I have seen to suggest that the E4 is a commercially underperforming model or that the umber version is relatively neglected. 

 

 

Note that the C in full Wainwright livery is incorrect for SECR days because goods engines had the domes painted too and not the polished brass in preservation. An SECR 'D' class as such would be correct however.

 

The Dean Goods will only be a debacle if the delays have not been due to Oxford correcting them. If they have, then there can be high hopes for the N7.