HS2

[corneliuslundie]

I fear that we are not likely to get silver service or antimacassars on HS2, at least not between London and Birmingham,

I am sure that our Rishi will deem a trolley service quite luxurious enough (but unfortunately probably that awful American coffee which seems now to be standard).

And let's not get onto seating again.

But thanks for the film. A bright spot in a rather dull day.

Jonathan

[Northmoor]

1 hour ago, woodenhead said:

Still don't understand why only Milkmen were qualified to drive the Blue Pullman

"Ernie, the fastest Milkman in the West(-ern Region)"'

[DY444]

21 hours ago, martin_wynne said:

 

I'm not arguing anything. I asked a question, which was not "Will HS2 be a success?"

 

It was "What metric will be used to decide the answer?"

 

Martin.

 

What single metric is used to decide if any such scheme is a success?  Usage?  Journey time?  Destinations served?  Reliability?  Comfort?  Safety?  Construction cost?  Construction Time?  De-facto mode for a given journey as Eurostar became for Paris?  Environmental effect?  Ongoing maintenance cost?  Cost of operation?  Revenue?  Profitability/level of subsidy?  Something else?  Take your pick.

 

It seems to me to be likely to be a combination of things rather than a single metric.     

Edited December 13, 2021 by DY444

[DY444]

On 12/12/2021 at 11:02, corneliuslundie said:

That depends on who is asking the question.

The Treasury will have a different answer from the person in the street and that will be different again from the engineers who designed it or the politicians in the north.

But the simplest metric is the number of passengers.

(Would it be a bad thing if everyone left London? Tongue in cheek, but someone who worked there for most of his career and has no wish to make further visits.) On the other hand we want the Up trains full too.

Jonathan

 

As an aside, the Sunday Times carried a report that there is now a steady stream of people returning to London with buyer's remorse having found their dalliance with rural living not to their taste. 

Edited December 14, 2021 by DY444

[melmerby]

7 minutes ago, DY444 said:

 

As as an aside, the Sunday Times carried a report that there is now a steady stream of people returning to London with buyer's remorse having found their dalliance with rural living not to their taste. 

That's just re-inforcing a trend that has been happening in all UKs larger cities for some months now.

[melmerby]

20 hours ago, woodenhead said:

Still don't understand why only Milkmen were qualified to drive the Blue Pullman

Because they were the cream of the crop.

 

 

[Pandora]

If there has to be a single metric it must be profit / loss of the HS2 operation.

If more than one metric,  treat  the many  forecasts and  projections in the published business case as metrics, and compare the actualities  of operation when HS2 is in operation with those  business case metrics 

[corneliuslundie]

You mean they have not found the rural idyll to their liking? No post office or bank for miles, an hour to the nearest A&E department, being woken by the sound of sheep, and having perfect strangers say hello as they pass you in the street. Plus only one train an hour at a station an hour's drive away 

A hour on a crowded rush-hour train, higher prices for everything, dirty air and Harrods down the road are obviously preferable.

Seriously, I suspect it is because for many the idea of "remote" working has not worked out as well as they thought it would initially.

Not that that will affect HS2 much as its main raison d'etre is to increase capacity is not to help with rush hour traffic.

Jonathan

[corneliuslundie]

Sorry, Pandora, I don't disagree that that is how many will judge it, but there is also a bigger question: what will HS2 do for the economy as a whole? Though whether the Treasury would ask that question is another matter.

Jonathan

[Edwin_m]

The business case for HS2 identifies a range of benefits, which are mainly to the wider economy rather than narrowly on the financial performance of HS2.  So I agree there should be a followup study to determine what actually happened and whether it agreed with the forecasts.  

 

This is of course not straightforward.  It's always very difficult to separate the effects in a real society where you can't do the "controlled experiment" of changing one thing and keeping everything else the same.  Since the business case there have been two unforeseen major blows to the economy, Brexit and the pandemic.  

Edited December 13, 2021 by Edwin_m

[lmsforever]

11 hours ago, melmerby said:

Because they were the cream of the crop.

 

 

Also had to be named Ernie

[Mike Storey]

On 13/12/2021 at 10:02, Pandora said:

If there has to be a single metric it must be profit / loss of the HS2 operation.

If more than one metric,  treat  the many  forecasts and  projections in the published business case as metrics, and compare the actualities  of operation when HS2 is in operation with those  business case metrics 

 

There have been several cost/benefit analyses of HS1, from an interim report commissioned by the DfT and undertaken by Atkins in 2013 (when domestic services had been running for only five years) , up to several over the past three/four years. Most conclude that HS1 has delivered significant benefits to UK plc over the years, up to £4.5 billion so far, by one estimate. Only one report determined the asset value generated as a proportion of the capital spent, which determined an overall loss of about £400m, which was peanuts compared to the gross capital spend, and did not take into account any of the wider benefits from passenger benefits through to GDP benefits. In the event, HMG let a 30 year concession in 2010 to a consortium for £2.1 billion, but then "sold" the asset in 2017 for somewhere above £3billion, but how much of that consolidates the original £2.1 billion is not clear. This was based on a construction costs of around £6.8 billion.

 

None of the reports (as far as I can tell) put any figure on environmental benefits, but one report in particular, undertaken for Kent CC in 2019, estimated that around 25% of journeys were "new to rail". That did not include people who had relocated to Kent, because of HS2, but still worked in London.

 

These reports can all be accessed by a simple Google search, so I will not bother to post links here, as there are so many.

 

I would expect similar reports to be generated for HS2, after Phase 1 and then after Phase 2 (whatever that turns out to be). But I would expect greater emphasis on modal shift and progress towards Environmental targets, which may (or may not) have been dissipated by both the emasculation of Phase 2 East, and by the continuing indecision over that and NPR. If this govt, or any other, is truly concerned over achieving their 2030/2040/2050 targets, then I would have expected some greater commitment than we have just seen.

 

[DY444]

14 hours ago, Mike Storey said:

 

There have been several cost/benefit analyses of HS1, from an interim report commissioned by the DfT and undertaken by Atkins in 2013 (when domestic services had been running for only five years) , up to several over the past three/four years. Most conclude that HS1 has delivered significant benefits to UK plc over the years, up to £4.5 billion so far, by one estimate. Only one report determined the asset value generated as a proportion of the capital spent, which determined an overall loss of about £400m, which was peanuts compared to the gross capital spend, and did not take into account any of the wider benefits from passenger benefits through to GDP benefits. In the event, HMG let a 30 year concession in 2010 to a consortium for £2.1 billion, but then "sold" the asset in 2017 for somewhere above £3billion, but how much of that consolidates the original £2.1 billion is not clear. This was based on a construction costs of around £6.8 billion.

 

None of the reports (as far as I can tell) put any figure on environmental benefits, but one report in particular, undertaken for Kent CC in 2019, estimated that around 25% of journeys were "new to rail". That did not include people who had relocated to Kent, because of HS2, but still worked in London.

 

These reports can all be accessed by a simple Google search, so I will not bother to post links here, as there are so many.

 

I would expect similar reports to be generated for HS2, after Phase 1 and then after Phase 2 (whatever that turns out to be). But I would expect greater emphasis on modal shift and progress towards Environmental targets, which may (or may not) have been dissipated by both the emasculation of Phase 2 East, and by the continuing indecision over that and NPR. If this govt, or any other, is truly concerned over achieving their 2030/2040/2050 targets, then I would have expected some greater commitment than we have just seen.

 

 

The Treasury have already thrown 2 significant spanners into the works of the environmental stuff in addition to the substantially reduced HS2 east.  More may well follow and I don't see any way now that net zero and all that goes with it won't be watered down or shifted well to the right or both.   So from this far out I don't see modal shift for environmental reasons featuring very high on reasons people use (or don't use) HS2.  

Edited December 15, 2021 by DY444

[lmsforever]

The works outside of Aylesbury are continuing with tarmac being put down on new entry point to the site  stone wall on  the opposite side of road has been demolished .The view beyond this wall shows just how much the line will curve around our town .Not so muchTraffic  now stopped five days a week at the works  ,I wonder what the bridge will look like and will the line be blended into the scenery here ? 

[lmsforever]

fingeres not doing what brain says the words not so much are a mistake

[jamie92208]

1 hour ago, lmsforever said:

The works outside of Aylesbury are continuing with tarmac being put down on new entry point to the site  stone wall on  the opposite side of road has been demolished .The view beyond this wall shows just how much the line will curve around our town .Not so muchTraffic  now stopped five days a week at the works  ,I wonder what the bridge will look like and will the line be blended into the scenery here ? 

Which worksite is that please I might be able to get the answers by studying the maps.

 

Jamie

[lmsforever]

Jamie  the site is on the A418 just before the Bugle Horn pub the road bends to the right and continues to Stone the other way towards Aylesbury and a roundabout with a left turn around the town .The rail line comes from Wendover and past Southcourt and on to the site.  Hope this helps .

[jamie92208]

1 hour ago, lmsforever said:

Jamie  the site is on the A418 just before the Bugle Horn pub the road bends to the right and continues to Stone the other way towards Aylesbury and a roundabout with a left turn around the town .The rail line comes from Wendover and past Southcourt and on to the site.  Hope this helps .

I've had a good look on the HS2 site and this is the plan for that area

HS2 A418

I'm no expert but it looks as if it will be in a cutting below the road. There is also goung to be sone sort of electrical feeder compound just south of the A418.  Noise shouldn't be too much of a problem with it being in a cutting.  I was standing not far from the new TGV line to Bordeaux this afternoon and the trains on a high embankment were inaudible a mile away.

 

I suspect that the works so far may be haul roads for spoil removal. They will probably build a temporary diversion for the 418.

 

Jamie.

 

Edited December 15, 2021 by jamie92208

[Bernard Lamb]

On 14/12/2021 at 18:02, Mike Storey said:

 

There have been several cost/benefit analyses of HS1, from an interim report commissioned by the DfT and undertaken by Atkins in 2013 (when domestic services had been running for only five years) , up to several over the past three/four years. Most conclude that HS1 has delivered significant benefits to UK plc over the years, up to £4.5 billion so far, by one estimate. Only one report determined the asset value generated as a proportion of the capital spent, which determined an overall loss of about £400m, which was peanuts compared to the gross capital spend, and did not take into account any of the wider benefits from passenger benefits through to GDP benefits. In the event, HMG let a 30 year concession in 2010 to a consortium for £2.1 billion, but then "sold" the asset in 2017 for somewhere above £3billion, but how much of that consolidates the original £2.1 billion is not clear. This was based on a construction costs of around £6.8 billion.

 

None of the reports (as far as I can tell) put any figure on environmental benefits, but one report in particular, undertaken for Kent CC in 2019, estimated that around 25% of journeys were "new to rail". That did not include people who had relocated to Kent, because of HS2, but still worked in London.

 

These reports can all be accessed by a simple Google search, so I will not bother to post links here, as there are so many.

 

I would expect similar reports to be generated for HS2, after Phase 1 and then after Phase 2 (whatever that turns out to be). But I would expect greater emphasis on modal shift and progress towards Environmental targets, which may (or may not) have been dissipated by both the emasculation of Phase 2 East, and by the continuing indecision over that and NPR. If this govt, or any other, is truly concerned over achieving their 2030/2040/2050 targets, then I would have expected some greater commitment than we have just seen.

 

Even if you ignore all of what you mention, HS1 has to be seen as a success simply for the part it played in the 2012 Olympics.

It would have been nigh on impossible to have cleared the Olympic site at the end of each day without it.

I was most impressed at how the service to St Pancras worked.

Bernard

 

[Northmoor]

35 minutes ago, Bernard Lamb said:

Even if you ignore all of what you mention, HS1 has to be seen as a success simply for the part it played in the 2012 Olympics.

It would have been nigh on impossible to have cleared the Olympic site at the end of each day without it.

I was most impressed at how the service to St Pancras worked.

Bernard

 

I don't see how HS1 contributed much towards that; it's dwarfed by the capacity to/from Stratford provided collectively by the DLR, Central and Jubilee lines.  West Ham's home games fill the same stadium now and don't rely on HS1 to clear the crowds.  However, I will accept that in 2012, HS1 did allow all the "important" people to travel on a nice fast train into St. Pancras at the end of the day, and arrive at their Central London hotels about four minutes before everyone else.

[Bernard Lamb]

26 minutes ago, Northmoor said:

I don't see how HS1 contributed much towards that; it's dwarfed by the capacity to/from Stratford provided collectively by the DLR, Central and Jubilee lines.  West Ham's home games fill the same stadium now and don't rely on HS1 to clear the crowds.  However, I will accept that in 2012, HS1 did allow all the "important" people to travel on a nice fast train into St. Pancras at the end of the day, and arrive at their Central London hotels about four minutes before everyone else.

I would not call myself one of the important people. Although I did have a free train ticket during the games.

There was a clear route from the venues to the station and for folks going north by train it saved a heck of a lot more than four minutes. Even if you include the walk from St Pancras to Euston in my case.

Even people who are not regular train users commented abut how quick and efficient it was.

Bernard

[lmsforever]

Thank you Jamie for the Oxford Rd info , I did not realalise it was to be an under bridge on a diverted roadway this will be an interesting build.The new road will cut away from the existing one quite close to the Fairford roundabout so there is going to be quite a large diversion  .also with a bridge such as this the construction will be fast.There is going to be a lot to see and it will be an interesting time which I hope to watch.

[phil-b259]

1 hour ago, Northmoor said:

I don't see how HS1 contributed much towards that; it's dwarfed by the capacity to/from Stratford provided collectively by the DLR, Central and Jubilee lines.  West Ham's home games fill the same stadium now and don't rely on HS1 to clear the crowds.  However, I will accept that in 2012, HS1 did allow all the "important" people to travel on a nice fast train into St. Pancras at the end of the day, and arrive at their Central London hotels about four minutes before everyone else.

 

The Olympic park consisted of more than just the Stadium!

 

You had multiple venues all hosting events at the same time! plus IIRC 'Olympic park only' tickets were on offer to allow folk to spend the day watching stuff on big screens.

 

The numbers needing to be moved were thus considerably more than you get from West Ham supporters and as such there was no way the pre existing transport options would have coped without the extra capacity afforded by HS1 (which also made access to the Stratford site far easier thanks to the connectivity provided by the Kings Cross / St Pancras hub)

 

P.S. I went on 2 separate days and the HS1 trains were packed with ordinary folk - not VIPs / 'important' folk

Edited December 15, 2021 by phil-b259

[jamie92208]

27 minutes ago, lmsforever said:

Thank you Jamie for the Oxford Rd info , I did not realalise it was to be an under bridge on a diverted roadway this will be an interesting build.The new road will cut away from the existing one quite close to the Fairford roundabout so there is going to be quite a large diversion  .also with a bridge such as this the construction will be fast.There is going to be a lot to see and it will be an interesting time which I hope to watch.

Any pictures you can take will be much appreciated.  Hopefully I will be coming back to see family next week and will be looking out for signs of construction  work where our route crosses HS2, either Brackleynor Kenilworth.

 

Jamie

[Northmoor]

38 minutes ago, phil-b259 said:

 

The Olympic park consisted of more than just the Stadium!

 

You had multiple venues all hosting events at the same time! plus IIRC 'Olympic park only' tickets were on offer to allow folk to spend the day watching stuff on big screens.

 

The numbers needing to be moved were thus considerably more than you get from West Ham supporters and as such there was no way the pre existing transport options would have coped without the extra capacity afforded by HS1 (which also made access to the Stratford site far easier thanks to the connectivity provided by the Kings Cross / St Pancras hub)

 

P.S. I went on 2 separate days and the HS1 trains were packed with ordinary folk - not VIPs / 'important' folk

Fair enough - I actually worked for a year in an office overlooking the Olympic Park - but at the Olympics, not all events at all the venues stop at the same time.  It has to be a pretty terrible game for more than a small proportion of football fans to leave a game before 90 minutes, they tend to leave in one block, I know, I've been in the middle of it.