KR Models to make SR Class 4DD

[Wickham Green too]

On 04/10/2021 at 01:09, mdvle said:

...... it is possible that the lack of liveries may yet be a problem .......

KR Don't seem to think the shortage of Leader liveries is a problem ........... maybe we'll see the 4DD offered in blue & grey, a suburban variant* of 'Jaffa Cake', a couple of styles of Network toothpaste, Connex or Southeastern white with lots of blue doors !!?! [ or, better still, backdated to a plausible 'SOUTHERN' ]

 

* your guess is as good as mine

[miles73128]

30 minutes ago, Wickham Green too said:

KR Don't seem to think the shortage of Leader liveries is a problem ........... maybe we'll see the 4DD offered in blue & grey, a suburban variant* of 'Jaffa Cake', a couple of styles of Network toothpaste, Connex or Southeastern white with lots of blue doors !!?! [ or, better still, backdated to a plausible 'SOUTHERN' ]

 

* your guess is as good as mine

* your guess is as good as mine

 

Green stripe instead of orange I think! 

[Michael Hodgson]

3 hours ago, Wickham Green too said:

KR Don't seem to think the shortage of Leader liveries is a problem ........... maybe we'll see the 4DD offered in blue & grey, a suburban variant* of 'Jaffa Cake', a couple of styles of Network toothpaste, Connex or Southeastern white with lots of blue doors !!?! [ or, better still, backdated to a plausible 'SOUTHERN' ]

 

* your guess is as good as mine

I think it would suit LMS maroon livery.

[Les1952]

On 04/10/2021 at 12:43, The Stationmaster said:

'Sold extremely well'  can mean many different things.   It certainly looks as if the GT3 first batch sold out so in that respect it clearly sold extremely well and was obviously profitable for them but we don't know how many were made.  Going back a good few decades a Hornby model was regarded as 'selling well' if it sold in excess of 10,000 examples but nowadays many models of locos in particular rarely exceed a couple of thousand and Hornby's first hi-fi Southern electric unit definitely 'sold out' but only 750 were made for the first release.

 

 

 

In N-gauge Dapol's A3s had a first production run of 300 per identity.  I still have my copy of the production spreadsheet sent by the then "Dapol Dave" for double checking of the identities .....  (and my annoyance with myself for failing to spot one had the wrong dome...)

 

Les

Edited October 5, 2021 by Les1952

[guarded]

Just found out about these,fantastic!!

 

Im definitely in for a set in Malachite Green.Great to see refreshingly different choices like these.

[Colin_McLeod]

6 hours ago, Wickham Green too said:

KR Don't seem to think the shortage of Leader liveries is a problem ........... maybe we'll see the 4DD offered in blue & grey, a suburban variant* of 'Jaffa Cake', a couple of styles of Network toothpaste, Connex or Southeastern white with lots of blue doors !!?! [ or, better still, backdated to a plausible 'SOUTHERN' ]

 

* your guess is as good as mine

 

I find the Leader in prototype livery to be an unattractive machine, and had decided not to buy one. 

 

However when I saw the lined green livery, I liked it and it was enough to make me change my mind and I ordered one.

[The Stationmaster]

14 hours ago, Les1952 said:

 

In N-gauge Dapol's A3s had a first production run of 300 per identity.  I still have my copy of the production spreadsheet sent by the then "Dapol Dave" for double checking of the identities .....  (and my annoyance with myself for failing to spot one had the wrong dome...)

 

Les

Having different identities within a run, even with minor attached detail differences, is quite common and detail difference runs of 250 models out of a total of 1,000 plus are quite normal nowadays (I have heard of one where a particular paint scheme is limited to 150 out of the total run).   What really hits up the cost per model is when the total run is less than 1,000 and the tooling cosy has to be spread overa much smaller number.  Provided detail variations can be accommodated without increasing the number of sprues moulded - and therefore the number of tools - the cost difference is minimal but using slides in the tools does get very expensive.

[wainwright1]

I think that the Leader in grey livery with the lining works well and have ordered one.

 

As previously noted by one poster here, it would appear that there are at least six livery options applicable to the DD sets. So with the basic DC sets and additional options for DCC Fitted and DCC Sound, there should definitely be good potential for these to be popular and successful models for KR.

 

All the best

Ray

[Michael Hodgson]

49 minutes ago, The Stationmaster said:

What really hits up the cost per model is when the total run is less than 1,000 and the tooling cosy has to be spread overa much smaller number.  

So why aren't there more reruns of successful models that sell out before they hit the container queue?

Surely the tooling for the first batch can be used again and generate much better return on investment?

[Darius43]

3 hours ago, Michael Hodgson said:

So why aren't there more reruns of successful models that sell out before they hit the container queue?

Surely the tooling for the first batch can be used again and generate much better return on investment?

 

Presumably because production slots are booked months/perhaps years in advance and so instant reruns are not possible.

 

The tooling can be reused - hence the second run of the GT3 - but not straight after the first run.

 

Cheers

 

Darius

Edited October 6, 2021 by Darius43

[The Stationmaster]

2 hours ago, Michael Hodgson said:

So why aren't there more reruns of successful models that sell out before they hit the container queue?

Surely the tooling for the first batch can be used again and generate much better return on investment?

Depends on demand.  Hornby have a record of getting it seriously wrong with doing just what you suggest - pushing forward additional production or even early Year 2 production of a model which has sold out (from their warehouse) when first released.  Then k look at what they are still trying to get shot of or the previous regime sold off in fire sales.  and Hornby aren't alone in selling or reducing prices to the trade on surplus (i.e. unsold) stock as Bachmann also do it - although I believe in much smaller volumes - plus Dapol  knocking out old models at exhibition after exhibition a few years ago.

 

The present market seems to crave, and snap up, novelty and if a manufacturer sells all they have bought from the factory and made a profit on their investment that is what matters.  Running a repeat order will obviously cost less because the tooling is paid off so it merely production cost plus shipping to the end market - but how do you assess the demand?  KR are being very sensible with the GT3 and - it appears - are ordering production based on end orders (and might for all we know have sufficient financial headroom to hold some in stock if they have to make up quantities to what the factory needs).    Look at how much money Hornby's annual accounts show how they have tied up in unsold stock a percentage of which is not new deliveries but includes things like Class 71s and J15s.

 

The most difficult thing for everyone in the trade be it Hornby or 'the hobby shop round the corner' is estimating demand for anything once the initial rush is over especially in a market where novelty and niche are responsible for so many sales.   I suspect (in fact I know in one or two instances) that the total demand for various of these niche models won't exceed 2,000 - 2,500 units and once the initial huff n'puff is over it is likely to be measured in no more than the odd handful or so in each successive future year.   So no point at all in re-ordering immediately (or at all in some cases) although the more 'bread & butter' items are likely to be re-ordered over a period of time.

 

KR have up until now been in a good position of ordering manufacture against customer orders but that might change with the Palbrick (but only for the Palbrick thus far in their line-up). There will be a measurable (by EOIs) level of demand for the 4DD which will also indicate the popularity of the livery options and it is then a simple bit of maths for them to decide if their potential project is or isn't a commercial proposition which will turn a profit.  That approach is simple, and probably the best one, for truly niche oddities or something very special such as the SLW Class 24 but I suspect the market might not stand for it being applied to, say, an LMS 3F Jocko (jinty).  Never forget that for a manufacturer it is far better to sell out of something, as long as in doing so they make a profit, than it is to re-run a model which won't sell out on its second outing

[Wickham Green too]

4 hours ago, wainwright1 said:

..... DD sets. ...... Sound, .......

Hmm ...... I wonder if anyone's got a recording ?

[Robert Shrives]

On 02/10/2021 at 12:30, Darius43 said:

Looking forward to this appearing.  Got an MTK folded brass and a resin kit of the 4DD in the stash which will now no doubt never be built.

 

Cheers

 

Darius

Ha , but building will ensure the rtr model comes to fruition.. 

[Darius43]

1 minute ago, Robert Shrives said:

Ha , but building will ensure the rtr model comes to fruition.. 

 

If you build it they will come...

 

Cheers

 

Darius

[mdvle]

On 06/10/2021 at 07:17, Michael Hodgson said:

So why aren't there more reruns of successful models that sell out before they hit the container queue?

Surely the tooling for the first batch can be used again and generate much better return on investment?

 

In addition to Stationmaster's good post I would simply add that we modellers are very bad at judging demand.  Just because a small number of people are willing to pay crazy prices on something like eBay doesn't mean that there is a market of 1,000 for an item.

 

Similar with your example above - a product that sells out prior to shipping from China really only tells us that there was enough demand for whatever quantity was made and not that there is sufficient demand to sell out a 2nd production run.

 

So in most cases it will be better for a manufacturer to wait a couple of years (or longer) to allow for enough demand justify a full production run.

 

(and yes, there will always be exceptions - like the GT3 - where a quick second run can work).

Edited October 7, 2021 by mdvle

[PrestburyJack]

 How about making it in this condition?

[Francis deWeck]

Looks like they will be getting another purchaser; I use to ride in these in my younger days, always heading for the upper deck, much to my parent's annoyance. If I remember they use to make a racket on tick-over.

 

Great choice of subject, hope it comes off. KR Models do seem to be announcing a varied range of models, all at once

[Metr0Land]

A minor detail which you can see from this shot 12Jan 2012 at Northampton is that the position of the car numbers seems to have changed over the years, revealed by weathering.  Just in case anyone says KR have got the position 'wrong'.  I did wonder if it was one position for green and another for blue, but all the numbers seem to be Rail Alphabet and none of them Gill Sans.

[adb968008]

On 06/10/2021 at 15:39, Darius43 said:

 

Presumably because production slots are booked months/perhaps years in advance and so instant reruns are not possible.

 

The tooling can be reused - hence the second run of the GT3 - but not straight after the first run.

 

Cheers

 

Darius

on a more commercial side, I suspect the big money in China is in the research /  tooling, not the actual assembly, which is cumbersome, time consuming and manual.

So tooling up an arms race of hardware might be quite lucrative “over there”, building up considerable future manufacturing potential.

 

Once that first batch is gone, the Intellectual property exists in a Chinese warehouse, and regardless what happens to the commissioning company in Europe, a tooling suite has future potential, which can be held onto as long as they like, and it’s cost of developing it has been recovered. 

My guess is its a lesser priority for the factory, to do reruns, even if its a higher  yield for the commissioner over here.
 

Chinese manufacturers will encourage duplication, competition is competition afterall, even in China, because if there tooling is newer better than the other’s.. then it hurts that factories future revenue potential just as much as it hurts the commissioner's over here.

 

Similarly, long gaps between runs, brings potential of technology shift and so opens up further revenue streams from tooling work (ie accomodating new electrics etc).. it is their business to encourage further tooling work afterall.

 

Despite the outcomes of European businesses, very few toolings have “dissapeared”.. they always come back in a new box wrapper… its the tooling that holds the value.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited October 8, 2021 by adb968008

[mdvle]

20 hours ago, adb968008 said:

on a more commercial side, I suspect the big money in China is in the research /  tooling, not the actual assembly, which is cumbersome, time consuming and manual.

 

Depends on the factory.  Some/many(?) outsource the tooling to specialty shops and thus won't see any real gain from tooling.

 

20 hours ago, adb968008 said:

My guess is its a lesser priority for the factory, to do reruns, even if its a higher  yield for the commissioner over here.

 

The priority for the factory is, as ever, to make money - and the easiest way to do that is with big production runs that minimize the setup time for various steps.

 

So a factory will prioritize a rerun of 5,000 items over a new tool run of 2,000.

 

Consideration also needs to done that new tool is also more prone to delays, than can leave a factory idle, as issues with tooling come up.  Rapido North America has run into this currently where a new product (E8) has had production delayed do to a late discovery of an issue that requires tooling changes - leaving the factory and/or Rapido to find something else to fill that production slot.

 

Thus there are of course exceptions - the factory in the end needs to keep the workers busy - and so an order that is a rerun of a smaller size that can be done on a "oops we have a gap in our production schedule that needs to be filled" basis are also popular.

[Roy Langridge]

On 08/10/2021 at 19:42, adb968008 said:

Once that first batch is gone, the Intellectual property exists in a Chinese warehouse, and regardless what happens to the commissioning company in Europe, a tooling suite has future potential, which can be held onto as long as they like, and it’s cost of developing it has been recovered. 

 

Who owns IPR will depend on the contract, some factories will honour that contract, some may not. Whilst there are some badly behaved Chinese companies, there are a lot of very good ones also, same the world over. 

Roy

[adb968008]

58 minutes ago, Roy Langridge said:

Who owns IPR will depend on the contract, some factories will honour that contract, some may not. Whilst there are some badly behaved Chinese companies, there are a lot of very good ones also, same the world over. 

Roy

100% agree. But also in any industry, if a business goes pop leaving an auditor with limited funds to wind up, is the best time to pick up a bargain, especially if the company is over here, and the tooling is over there.

The internet is littered with such examples, large and small in all industries, extreme examples,  tooling can simply be abandoned.

 

Thankfully in our hobby, nothing ever dissapears, it just becomes remixed.

 

But back to point, its the tooling that holds the value, it was on that metal, which is where the research and development money was spent and solidified as spent capital.

The end product made from that tooling is the return on that investment, for the commissioner, but not necessarily the manufacturer, unless they are risk sharing?

 

I cant imagine a manufacturer is making much margin on labour intensive assembly of bits, that also require packaging, painting etc, granted for some it will be a body shop assembly line business, but even then its a small batch business with its assembly line set up costs for each individual model livery / spec made… if they are holding debt from the cost of tooling into the assembly line, in order to meet a customer commission, then its a risk to their own business…, especially if it didn't sell to that quantity, something happened to the market, or country or commissioner thats out of their control ?

So i’d imagine they would want to be covered for their margin once the metal is cut at a minimum or am I being to risk averse in thinking ?

 

Coming full circle.. long gaps between runs.. if the big money was in re-runs / assembly, for manufacturers, not just comissioners, then surely manufacturers would be falling over themselves to do it, and as such time gaps would be shorter.

 

Edited October 11, 2021 by adb968008

[Roy Langridge]

57 minutes ago, adb968008 said:

Coming full circle.. long gaps between runs.. if the big money was in re-runs / assembly, for manufacturers, not just comissioners, then surely manufacturers would be falling over themselves to do it, and as such time gaps would be shorter.

 

 

That is one that has always puzzled me. Some manufacturers (Heljan for example) seem to turn out re-runs far more frequently than some others. Is down to the drivers for different companies?

 

If you look at BA as an example, in years gone by punctuality was more important that operating cost, for the low-cost carriers it was the other way round. As BA lost market share that balance shifted.

 

Do we have a number of manufacturers that (despite possible financial difficulties) still like the kudos of new models and are not yet maximising the benefit of existing tooling?

Roy

[adb968008]

58 minutes ago, Roy Langridge said:

 

That is one that has always puzzled me. Some manufacturers (Heljan for example) seem to turn out re-runs far more frequently than some others. Is down to the drivers for different companies?

Do they own their own factory ? 
That may make a difference, Heljan at least used to make Concor in the US as well as European HO, (as well as n, o) and oo models plus UK O.

It may be down to complexity too… compare to Hornby.. their  31/50 are very different beasts to the 43/67 which are different beasts to the 56/60…  however railroad is as simple as it gets.. and Hornby is never short on railroad stock. Again Heljan, many models under the hood are pretty uncomplex easy to assemble models of a very similar nature.

 

 

 

 

Edited October 11, 2021 by adb968008

[mdvle]

1 hour ago, Roy Langridge said:

That is one that has always puzzled me. Some manufacturers (Heljan for example) seem to turn out re-runs far more frequently than some others. Is down to the drivers for different companies?

 

We simply don't have the data to really know.

 

The big question will be just how many models were made - in relation to market demand - in the previous production run.  If there are still models sitting on retailer shelves / in the manufacturer warehouse then the viability will an issue when compared to a product that sold our relatively quickly.

 

It will also depend on the prototype, and whether there is consistent demand for that item or is it going to be something that needs a lot of time to build up demand again.

 

Or, the really big one - how much existing tooling does a manufacturer have.  There is only X £'s of hobby spending in any year, so big long term companies like Bachmann and Hornby have a large inventory of existing tooling to rotate through to generate cash flow while a smaller operation like Heljan with less tooling will need to re-use tooling more quickly - but likely with the side effect of smaller production runs given the nature of demand.