Chinese manufacturing delays now causing major issues

[shunny]

It looks like Hornby are suffering badly with manufacturing delays due to the various issues in China. 69 of the 125 locomotives available to pre order are now listed as Spring, Summer or Autumn 23 delivery. I know this is not solely a Hornby issue but with Hornby trying to get back to being profitable company this will add further challenges to this.

 

 

[Hroth]

There's nothing they can do about easing the supply problems, the Chinese government will do what they will to control covid. Supplies to small foreign companies are well down the list of priorities.

 

What Hornby can do is be more open with the supply situation and explain why various models are being delayed so badly.  Some will be due to shortages of electronic components, others due to the shutdown of major manufacturing cities. They just have to acknowledge the problem and keep their customers informed.  You'd think we were all mushrooms!

 

Anyhow, there's no point in getting completely wound up about it. We'll get them eventually. (fingers crossed)

 

[adb968008]

New stuff delayed, but a look at their website reveals oodles of old stuff still in stock.

 

Its only unreleased stuff were starved off, and that applies to every company, but theres no shortage of red boxes, general public wont notice.

[Phil Parker]

15 hours ago, Hroth said:

What Hornby can do is be more open with the supply situation and explain why various models are being delayed so badly.  Some will be due to shortages of electronic components, others due to the shutdown of major manufacturing cities. They just have to acknowledge the problem and keep their customers informed.  You'd think we were all mushrooms!

 

They are telling us the expected delivery dates - what more should they do?

 

I can't see it's economic to provide a running commentary on the problems affecting each individual model which will be of interest to a tiny numbers of people. For most, the model is on sale, or it isn't. You will buy it, or not, whether they entertain you in the meantime with endless updates.

[Oldddudders]

The component shortage is affecting companies far bigger than Hornby. ISTR last year Peugeot had to redesign the dashboard of a car so it could have an analogue speedo rather than the intended digital version. 

 

Then there is Sony Corp, whose profitable camera lines have been seriously affected. They have suspended manufacture of their popular A6xxx range of mirrorless cameras, so they can concentrate limited chip manufacture on higher-end, higher-price full-frame models in the A1, A7 and A9 ranges. Two A7 models have been updated and received much better rear screens - because they were available. Lenses - these days full of electronics - are being delayed, too. 

 

When availability of components dictates manufacturing priorities, selling becomes a whole new ball-game. 

[The Stationmaster]

But this hardly comes a surprise as far as the 'model railway industry' is concerned as delays have been occurring for quite while - going back into last year and previously.  I think the only reason it is being noticed is because Hornby works on the basis of issuing a large annual programme so everyone knows what is coming and on an historical basis expects it to arrive roughly in line with the originally quoted date.

 

Obviously Hornby are not the only concern suffering delays but because of the way they work it is not noticeable for most 'manufacturers' and commissioners.  The only thing Hornby might be 'blamed' for is announcing a whole annual programme in advance in one go - but they cannot be blamed for  the overwhelming majority of production delays.  And there are plenty of older models, from only a few years back, emerging from the warehouse and now on the market at prices - in some cases - considerably less than their original RRP.  The 'new model novelty factor' might not be there but there are still plenty of Hornby models out there on the shelves of many retailers or showing up on their websites or in their magazine ads so the red box's trade position can still be supported, should you wish to, by buying things.

 

And why do people want continuous updates about forthcoming models.  If there is nothing new to announce and nothing more to tell us (and an expected delivery date a year away has been quoted) what on earth do you think they can tell us?  News is only 'news' when it is something new compared with what we have previously been told - the big hint is in that word 'new'.

[JSpencer]

It is pretty congested around Shanghai at the moment! (green = cargo, red = tankers).

 

This will take months and months to clear..... It is a safe bet that no one on the planet will know which container and which ship Hornby's models will end up on. And even if they did, I am not sure what else that could report.... "good news, today our ship moved from the 452nd in line to the 451st...." 

 

[The Stationmaster]

22 minutes ago, JSpencer said:

It is pretty congested around Shanghai at the moment! (green = cargo, red = tankers).

 

This will take months and months to clear..... It is a safe bet that no one on the planet will know which container and which ship Hornby's models will end up on. And even if they did, I am not sure what else that could report.... "good news, today our ship moved from the 452nd in line to the 451st...." 

 

 

But how different is it from pre-pandemic normal?  

 

A good percentage of the cargo ships shown on there are underway and a quick check just now on Marine traffic shows a steady stream of cargo vessels moving into port and an equally steady stream of vessels leaving port which suggest that total lockdown is not currently in place.  Shanghai is currently showing at least 20 departures and 20 arrivals expected during the remaining part of today so they are clearly turning round ships.  There are currently 236 vessels in port with 108 having arrived in the past 24 hours and a further 197 expected in the next 30 days but those numbers could possibly indicate that there has been a backlog of some sort.

 

In fact  - from a quick look -  there is greater percentage of vessels underway off Shanghai than is currently the case off Antwerp and Rotterdam

[adb968008]

7 minutes ago, The Stationmaster said:

But how different is it from pre-pandemic normal?  

 

A good percentage of the cargo ships shown on there are underway and a quick check just now on Marine traffic shows a steady stream of cargo vessels moving into port and an equally steady stream of vessels leaving port which suggest that total lockdown is not currently in place.  Shanghai is currently showing at least 20 departures and 20 arrivals expected during the remaining part of today so they are clearly turning round ships.  There are currently 236 vessels in port with 108 having arrived in the past 24 hours and a further 197 expected in the next 30 days but those numbers could possibly indicate that there has been a backlog of some sort.

 

In fact  - from a quick look -  there is greater percentage of vessels underway off Shanghai than is currently the case off Antwerp and Rotterdam

No indication if the goods intended are on the ships intended though.

Churning over ships could just be that.

if the factory is shut, then the containers not going anywhere, similarly some containers waiting one vessel, could well end up on another just to clear space and make progress to transhipment elsewhere.

 

 

 

[Littlethorpe]

Start-up opportunity for someone to manufacture in the UK on a subcontract basis? Start small with wagons etc? A local manufacturer might be of interest to model railway "manufacturers" who currently sub-contract to China (with the exception of Bachmann who are Chinese-owned).

 

In the current economic/business/political climate this will be the way forward in lots of industries I think.

 

I imagine this has been raised before & I expect I'll get shot down PDQ as I'm sure there are a lot of reasons against as well as some obvious reasons for.

[adb968008]

31 minutes ago, Littlethorpe said:

Start-up opportunity for someone to manufacture in the UK on a subcontract basis? Start small with wagons etc? A local manufacturer might be of interest to model railway "manufacturers" who currently sub-contract to China (with the exception of Bachmann who are Chinese-owned).

 

In the current economic/business/political climate this will be the way forward in lots of industries I think.

 

I imagine this has been raised before & I expect I'll get shot down PDQ as I'm sure there are a lot of reasons against as well as some obvious reasons for.

Follow the money and the question answers itself.

 

If youve got a factory, equipment, warehouse and trained staff, and the tooling is locally to hand, there maybe a case. But if you dont, how long and how much does it cost to get set up.

 

Dapol manufacturers wagons in the UK and has invested in tooling and machinery. I’m sure if the situation was truly desparate, paying them for a batch of wagons could work, afterall BA hired Ryanair planes once. But I dont think theres shortages of stuff, just delays of stuff…

 

I look online and all retailers have oodles of product from all manufacturers, indeed I suspect many are over burdened on some lines, going into a slow down that could become a bigger problem… delays may be a good thing.

Edited May 19, 2022 by adb968008

[Johan DC]

The new Airfix 1/24 Spitfire is made in the UK, in the new podcast they talked about working with 3D printers. Who knows what else will follow?

[Steamport Southport]

24 minutes ago, Johan DC said:

The new Airfix 1/24 Spitfire is made in the UK, in the new podcast they talked about working with 3D printers. Who knows what else will follow?

 

Just had a look through some of the Airfix kits I've got. All recent.

 

Made in India.

 

 

Jason

[GWR-fan]

Wagons could possibly translate to local production,  however with no disrespect to other nationalities,  the Chinese for over twenty years have demonstrated that they have a highly skilled workforce with the dexterity to assemble very detailed locomotive models.  I recall when LGB commenced production in Hungary that warranty issues surfaced.  On one particular locomotive there were issues with the drive bogies.  It seems the workers ignored the requirement to install a specified number of screws securing the lower cover plate and assumed near enough was good enough with the result the bogies failed.

[GWR-fan]

32 minutes ago, Johan DC said:

The new Airfix 1/24 Spitfire is made in the UK, in the new podcast they talked about working with 3D printers. Who knows what else will follow?

 

Kit production is one thing,  however,  finding the workforce to assemble detailed models is the issue.

[Johan DC]

1 hour ago, Steamport Southport said:

 

Just had a look through some of the Airfix kits I've got. All recent.

 

Made in India.

 

 

They only announced it today, I think it's the first one that will be produced in the UK. 

[Steamport Southport]

Yes. I was just pointing out the current production. Many people think everything is made in China.

 

Maybe spreading things out a bit more in the future might be beneficial rather than having all the eggs in one basket. 

 

 

 

Jason

[SamThomas]

7 hours ago, GWR-fan said:

Wagons could possibly translate to local production,  however with no disrespect to other nationalities,  the Chinese for over twenty years have demonstrated that they have a highly skilled workforce with the dexterity to assemble very detailed locomotive models.  I recall when LGB commenced production in Hungary that warranty issues surfaced.  On one particular locomotive there were issues with the drive bogies.  It seems the workers ignored the requirement to install a specified number of screws securing the lower cover plate and assumed near enough was good enough with the result the bogies failed.

That is a quality control issue which can manifest itself wherever goods are produced.

[SamThomas]

5 hours ago, Steamport Southport said:

Maybe spreading things out a bit more in the future might be beneficial rather than having all the eggs in one basket.

Indeed, some of the European Companies such as Roco have facilities in Slovakia & the Phippines.

[adb968008]

frateschi Is based in Brazil, since 1958.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Frateschi

Edited May 20, 2022 by adb968008

[Phil Parker]

8 hours ago, Johan DC said:

The new Airfix 1/24 Spitfire is made in the UK, in the new podcast they talked about working with 3D printers. Who knows what else will follow?

 

A plastic kit is easy - press a button on the moulding machine and it falls into a bag ready for sale. The customers know they are going to have to assemble it so after-sales care is minimal.

 

That's a different prospect to a locomotive which has to be hand-assembled from hundreds of bits and then made to work. Jason Shron has explained in the past that neither Canda or the UK has the skills base to do this assembly work, nor could compete with the price that China can manage.

 

And before someone raises the posibility of a CKD style kit so the modeller does the assembly, that brings its own set of challenges. On my desk is a Accucraft kit for a live steam Peckett loco. It's bolt together, but because of all the extra packing and instructions, only £75 cheaper then the RTR version.

[Mike Bellamy]

6 hours ago, Steamport Southport said:

Yes. I was just pointing out the current production. Many people think everything is made in China.

Maybe spreading things out a bit more in the future might be beneficial rather than having all the eggs in one basket. 

 

 

One of our club members is helping in the disposal of a deceased estate and brought in a whole load of assorted junk to help raise funds for the club. Included were about 20 small plastic boxes that had contained all sorts of electrical bits etc. I thought they were from Ikea as we once had some like that at home. I turned one over to check the manufacturer's name and yes it was Ikea. However what surprised us was that it was also stamped "Made in USA" !! I looked at a few others and found they were either from India or Czechoslovakia. . . . . . not China as we all expected.

.

[Allegheny1600]

32 minutes ago, Phil Parker said:

Jason Shron has explained in the past that neither Canda or the UK has the skills base to do this assembly work, nor could compete with the price that China can manage.

Not disputing what you say, Phil - just what Jason says.

What about the RTR stuff from DJH, OO Works and Union Mills?

They might not complete with China and price but they must have the skills.

[McC]

27 minutes ago, Mike Bellamy said:

 

One of our club members is helping in the disposal of a deceased estate and brought in a whole load of assorted junk to help raise funds for the club. Included were about 20 small plastic boxes that had contained all sorts of electrical bits etc. I thought they were from Ikea as we once had some like that at home. I turned one over to check the manufacturer's name and yes it was Ikea. However what surprised us was that it was also stamped "Made in USA" !! I looked at a few others and found they were either from India or Czechoslovakia. . . . . . not China as we all expected.

.

 

China overtook the USA as the worlds largest manufacturer in 2010, and is set to overtake them as the worlds largest economy by about 2030. 

 

The trouble for model railways is that , from the SandaKan days, there is a generational skill base now, centred around 7 or 8 medium and large factories. It would take a decade of investment and training to put that kind of resource anywhere else.

Edited May 20, 2022 by McC

[APOLLO]

On 16/05/2022 at 10:43, Oldddudders said:

The component shortage is affecting companies far bigger than Hornby. ISTR last year Peugeot had to redesign the dashboard of a car so it could have an analogue speedo rather than the intended digital version. 

 

Then there is Sony Corp, whose profitable camera lines have been seriously affected. They have suspended manufacture of their popular A6xxx range of mirrorless cameras, so they can concentrate limited chip manufacture on higher-end, higher-price full-frame models in the A1, A7 and A9 ranges. Two A7 models have been updated and received much better rear screens - because they were available. Lenses - these days full of electronics - are being delayed, too. 

 

When availability of components dictates manufacturing priorities, selling becomes a whole new ball-game. 

 

Interesting.

 

With the current chip (etc etc) shortages new cars are getting thin on the garage forecourts. I suspect that, together with the switch to manufacturing EV's there is perhaps the same profit to be made by a manufacturer selling one medium to high end (expensive) EV than two low spec ICE vehicles (that are difficult if not impossible to source at the moment). I have read two major manufacturers will cease production of ICE powered cars very soon (certainly well before the government cut off date). 

 

The world is changing quickly, and not always to the advantage of most people. We all have to live with it & adapt.

 

Brit15