Chinese manufacturing delays now causing major issues

[Legend]

China is still the cheapest option for manufacturing . But we (the West) are far too dependent on China for our manufacturing .  There is the political aspect . Taiwan, South China Sea , human rights . Alarmist? Possibly , but then last year who would have imagined the Russians would have invaded Ukraine! The world is a different place now . 
 

We have got to start investing in manufacturing industry . Highly automated , productivity increases so that it’s competitive .  To be honest this has been the story in the Uk since the 50s , but successive governments have failed , and in the last 30 years it’s been all too easy to get materials from China and do even less at home , so we have basically given up . This needs to be corrected .Not an instant answer but it needs to happen .  Frankly model railways will be the least of our concerns . 

Edited May 21, 2022 by Legend

[Littlethorpe]

52 minutes ago, Legend said:

China is still the cheapest option for manufacturing . But we (the West) are far too dependent on China for our manufacturing .  There is the political aspect . Taiwan, South China Sea , human rights . Alarmist? Possibly , but then last year who would have imagined the Russians would have invaded Ukraine! The world is a different place now . 
 

We have got to start investing in manufacturing industry . Highly automated , productivity increases so that it’s competitive .  To be honest this has been the story in the Uk since the 50s , but successive governments have failed , and in the last 30 years it’s been all too easy to get materials from China and do even less at home , so we have basically given up . This needs to be corrected .Not an instant answer but it needs to happen .  Frankly model railways will be the least of our concerns . 

Totally agree & this links back to my original post that started the discussion.

 

Peco & their brands are successful & have recently invested in new/additional moulding equipment etc. Admittedly the one item they don't manufacture is locos.

[woodenhead]

19 minutes ago, Littlethorpe said:

Totally agree & this links back to my original post that started the discussion.

 

Peco & their brands are successful & have recently invested in new/additional moulding equipment etc. Admittedly the one item they don't manufacture is locos.

And when they do, they outsource it to a third party to do it for them Rivarossi, Kato - though it seems the 2251 was assembled in house at Beer!!

[john new]

1 hour ago, Legend said:

China is still the cheapest option for manufacturing . But we (the West) are far too dependent on China for our manufacturing .  There is the political aspect . Taiwan, South China Sea , human rights . Alarmist? Possibly , but then last year who would have imagined the Russians would have invaded Ukraine! The world is a different place now . 
 

We have got to start investing in manufacturing industry . Highly automated , productivity increases so that it’s competitive .  To be honest this has been the story in the Uk since the 50s , but successive governments have failed , and in the last 30 years it’s been all too easy to get materials from China and do even less at home , so we have basically given up . This needs to be corrected .Not an instant answer but it needs to happen .  Frankly model railways will be the least of our concerns . 

Difficult to post without being political, but some form of internationally agreed import tariff on goods from countries with low wages, no pensions, no H&S legislation, no decent affordable health care, etc., etc., would be a big start. It isn't just the industries you think of, ask anyone in Keynsham, Bournville or York about the lost confectionery works. Then again look at the way domestically  our hospitality trade and shop/retail workers are shafted at home in the UK and you realise those in power appear to like it the way it is.

 

Edited May 21, 2022 by john new
Missing capital K on Keynsham

[eldomtom2]

3 hours ago, Phil Parker said:

 

And which ones are those? Perhaps you could remind us of the list of manufacturers producing RTR models up to the standards of those coming out of China. We've had 3D printers (Fourdees,  Rails), tiny diecasters (Union Mills), kit assemblers (OO Works, DJH) but China is currently where its at if you want quality and a price people don't moan at (much). 

For starters, you forgot Peco and Dapol. Second, you apparently seem to believe that the only two countries in the world are Britain and China. For companies manufacturing models in countries that are neither Britain or China, we so far have seen mentioned in this thread Roco, Frateschi, Marklin Trix, Minitrix, and Kato.

[rembrow]

4 hours ago, Phil Parker said:

 

And which ones are those? Perhaps you could remind us of the list of manufacturers producing RTR models up to the standards of those coming out of China. We've had 3D printers (Fourdees,  Rails), tiny diecasters (Union Mills), kit assemblers (OO Works, DJH) but China is currently where its at if you want quality and a price people don't moan at (much). 

Always in these debates, two UK manufacturers are omitted and I'm surprised that railway modelling journalists too, omit them. Dapol and Peco. Both have plastic injection moulding machinery and painting, printing facilities for volume production  and have a production workforce, in the UK. Now while you may argue that their ranges don't have the detail fitted parts that are a feature of Chinese made models, that is changing, with Dapol having invested in new machinery and who now produce 'n' gauge coaches in the UK, I believe they transferred the tools from China. They also produce most of their 'O' gauge 2 axle wagons in the UK, and the new Stroudley 'O' gauge coaches were advertised as being manufactured in the UK, and those are full of additional detail. So it is not correct to say that rtr plastic model manufacture is not being made in the UK, but it is limited.

However there is concern that China made models may be changing to have more detail fitted by the buyer. While it's not a certainty, as it's been seen in only one recent model, so I can't say it is a trend. The model is the Bachmann vanwide, which when examined, had most of the chassis detail to be fitted by the buyer, 12 pieces of brake parts. This type of brake hanger and connecting rods had previously been factory fitted e.g. the lner fish and general vans. So maybe we are heading into a cycle where the buyer has to fit detail, a la ViTrains Class 47 (I have done 4 of those)

 

Edited May 21, 2022 by rembrow
Correction

[Nova Scotian]

19 hours ago, D9020 Nimbus said:

And yet the manufacturers using Chinese-based suppliers tell us they have major problems retaining staff — with their being tempted by companies in other sectors, electronics for example; so how can such a base exist?

 

I also find the statement that it would take 7 times as much to make stuff in the UK to China surprising, given 

 

Most Minitrix locomotives are made in Germany.

The prices are broadly comparable with those of Liliput N gauge locos — made in China (by Bachmann).

Both are approximately 1.5 times that of Farish locomotives.

 

So are UK costs significantly more than German?

 

 

I just grabbed this, there's newer (it's a 2018 McKinsey report), but I don't have time this morning to track down the latest.

 

The cost isn't just direct labour wages per hour, its labour productivity. Our great and glorious leaders seem to think this is because everyone is lazy and WFH layabouts... the actual answer (s) is about the investment in advanced equipment, machinery, adoption of new software and processes etc. See below:

 

Germany are leaders in productivity in manufacturing in Europe. They have hundreds of companies experienced in tooling, making advanced machinery, in robotics, and they built an open source industry 4.0 platform. They are about a decade ahead of much other manufacturing.

Productivity drives that total cost - the output per hour worked, the flexibility in the supply chain and production, the speed and availability of tooling, and particularly the lowered cost of rework and warranty claims from increased quality.

 

Look, France has opened up a 20% labour productivity gap over the UK:

While we were all being casually racist being snide about 35 hour working weeks, the month of August off, and all the other tropes, they invested in what they needed to remain competitive, while UK industry bleated about the minimum wage.

 

 

[Nova Scotian]

14 hours ago, Balgrayhill said:

In a word, yes.  

 

Everything in the UK is surrounded by red tape, which costs a fortune to get through, and that's before you factor in premises, machinery, raw materials, staff etc etc etc - and all the red tape surrounding each of those.

 

On the issue of staff, try getting them in the UK!  Its quite clear that a growing number of the 'workforce' want to earn as much money as possible for doing as little as possible, or become a 'sleb due to their over-inflated sense of self-importance.  

 

 

 

 

And this is exactly what I'm talking about.

 

Complaints within the UK that the EU introduces red tape, makes it too hard to do anything. Yet German manufacturing wipes the floor with British, seemingly not struggling with the same issues. Brexit happens, more red tape rather than less, and harder to access markets, source from those markets etc.

 

Then blaming "people" - real wages have been headed downwards since the last great recession, with a widening gulf between rich and poor. Labour deserves to be paid a living wage, while the powers-that-be have tried to stagnate wages to remain competitive, rather than investing in supporting industries move to greater productivity. Because that's about supporting innovation, investment in machinery, in skills and training - and in providing the most unfettered market access possible to compete. The culture wars of the last few years have obliterated that - and the blame has been turned onto the common man/woman, whereas its a systemic failing by the institutions.

[Roy Langridge]

@Nova Scotian, it is pointless getting facts out, too many people ignore them anyway.
 

I get fed up with sone of the myths spouted about China. People seem to just make up facts to support their pro-China / pro-UK bias. 
 

As I have posted before, China is changing rapidly, some brought about willingly, some at the insistence of the consumer and some, such as energy prices, out of everyone’s control. How is deals with those changes, and how ordering patterns change globally, will be interesting. 
 

Roy

[Nova Scotian]

1 minute ago, Roy Langridge said:

@Nova Scotian, it is pointless getting facts out, too many people ignore them anyway.
 

I get fed up with sone of the myths spouted about China. People seem to just make up facts to support their pro-China / pro-UK bias. 
 

As I have posted before, China is changing rapidly, some brought about willingly, some at the insistence of the consumer and some, such as energy prices, out of everyone’s control. How is deals with those changes, and how ordering patterns change globally, will be interesting. 
 

Roy

Yep.

 

I do think UK manufacturers will be able to compete with low wage jurisdictions in the next decade or so - but it's going to be about capital investment. And so maybe it won't be in the UK, but it might be in Europe. The more separately fitted parts can be automated either through stereolithography, or other high-detail 3d printed applications - reducing the parts and complexity while maintaining the detail - and being far more reactive to demand.

 

Designing the body and chassis etc for a run of 500 - running the bare minimum, but production linked to preorders on your website, to preorders through your channel retailers, and then adjusting to sales from those retailers as you launch - to run off batches of another 50-5000 depending on demand. Rather than announcing every year, or quarter, you're producing enough to keep the channel stocked, while not overproducing for inventory - and balancing "scarcity" for supply/demand for your own benefit, rather than collectors and resellers on auction sites. You could get almost to the point of production on demand, customized - if your painting booth etc is all automated, why not do a run of "1", priced accordingly? You can produce it within a couple of weeks and ship it, rather than waiting 18 months for a production slot of 500. 

 

We're unlikely to replace "mass production", but we can certainly see an opening for "niche production", and emerging opportunity for that custom, fast production. You beat your competitor to market, you react to the demand pulling your product through the sales channels, and you spin up rapidly with flexible tooling. You're not at the mercy of a 2-6 week sea voyage where container rates are seven times higher than last year, or trying to find an air cargo spot. The raw materials going into model railways are extremely limited in quantity (but high in the number/type?).

The greatest challenge is going to be certain components are still unlikely to be produced in the UK - think the motor. But there are custom manufacturers doing PCB printing for small runs - you *could* onshore, knowing the component price-per-unit is going to be higher, but you have to find an efficiency elsewhere in the chain, or be able to charge more. And "made in the UK" isn't going to cut it for charging more - it needs to be better, or faster, or more available.  

[D9020 Nimbus]

Some comparisons on prices might be helpful:

 

Price of Peco 4-wheel 009 wagons — £19.95

Price of Bachmann 4-wheel 009 wagons — £29.95

 

Even the latest Peco L&B bogie brakevan is only £31.95. No evidence there of seven times the cost or more.

 

(Current prices as charged by Kernow Model Rail Centre.)

 

The situation may be different with respect to locos; the Peco British-made Collett goods was round about £150 when introduced— a few years ago now, but DCC-fitted and hardly seven times the cost of the equivalent type of loco from Bachmann/Farish of the time — at most twice the price of the (largely-comparable, but not DCC-fitted)  J39, and Farish prices have risen quite a bit in real terms since then. Though I do note they have gone to Kato for 009 locos.

 

[Mark Dickerson]

13 hours ago, Johan DC said:

FR is more about 'looks like it is good enough' filosophy. Hornby Railroad is finer in detail than those, and better quality as well. 

Yes, but. then again, smaller Railroad steam also follows the "sort of, like" philosophy, and at least one Frateschi diesel manages central-drive-with-flywheels, present on Athearn Blue Box several decades ago...

[dibber25]

6 hours ago, rembrow said:

Always in these debates, two UK manufacturers are omitted and I'm surprised that railway modelling journalists too, omit them. Dapol and Peco. Both have plastic injection moulding machinery and painting, printing facilities for volume production  and have a production workforce, in the UK. Now while you may argue that their ranges don't have the detail fitted parts that are a feature of Chinese made models, that is changing, with Dapol having invested in new machinery and who now produce 'n' gauge coaches in the UK, I believe they transferred the tools from China. They also produce most of their 'O' gauge 2 axle wagons in the UK, and the new Stroudley 'O' gauge coaches were advertised as being manufactured in the UK, and those are full of additional detail. So it is not correct to say that rtr plastic model manufacture is not being made in the UK, but it is limited.

However there is concern that China made models may be changing to have more detail fitted by the buyer. While it's not a certainty, as it's been seen in only one recent model, so I can't say it is a trend. The model is the Bachmann vanwide, which when examined, had most of the chassis detail to be fitted by the buyer, 12 pieces of brake parts. This type of brake hanger and connecting rods had previously been factory fitted e.g. the lner fish and general vans. So maybe we are heading into a cycle where the buyer has to fit detail, a la ViTrains Class 47 (I have done 4 of those)

 

Excuse me? I must be the 'railway journalist'. I thought the discussion was about 'Ready to run model railways' . It is, after all, in the Hornby thread. Peco and Dapol were omitted because they both manufacture what they can profitably produce in the UK and don't produce the things that they can't - the complex electrical and mechanical stuff. Peco manufactured one locomotive in the UK and it was a good long time ago. Dapol and Peco produce plastic kits and Tampo-print rolling stock bodies. The reason that you are seeing Chinese-made models with more customer-fit parts is because no country stands still. Progress in China has meant government-imposed wage rises which are driving up the cost of all the hand-assembly which is now involved in manufacturing railway models. My most recent purchase is a Walthers freight car on which there are more than two-dozen wire hand rails and grab irons to be customer fitted and the customer has to drill the No.80 holes, too! Ironically, British manufacturing might have been able to cope with 'Design Clever' levels of detail, but we all know how the market reacted to that. The fact is, as the market shrinks, production runs get shorter and that drives prices up and, maybe, the future does lie in British assembly of short-run models, but they'll be in plastic, not brass or white metal - though they'll cost just as much! (CJL)

Edited May 21, 2022 by dibber25
Corrected spell-checker correction

[Phil Parker]

6 hours ago, eldomtom2 said:

For starters, you forgot Peco and Dapol.

 

6 hours ago, rembrow said:

Always in these debates, two UK manufacturers are omitted and I'm surprised that railway modelling journalists too, omit them. Dapol and Peco.

 

Silly me. I also forgot their extensive range of highly detailed RTR locomotives made in the UK too.

 

6 hours ago, rembrow said:

Both have plastic injection moulding machinery and painting, printing facilities for volume production  and have a production workforce, in the UK.

 

Injection moulding is easy. Lots of people can do it. Try putting 100+ parts for a RTR loco togetherm then printing it so there are 6+ colours in a single, tiny N gauge crest. That's the tough bit.

 

I'm sure that given enough time and investment, manufacturing could be brought back to the UK. It would require the UK modeller to accept substantial increases in price - all for the benefit of a Union flag on the box. The trouble is, I still refer back to Jason Shron, who thinks this is difficult and unlikely. Now you may think "What does a man who built a successful company making top end RTR know?", so you might also like to remember Little Loco Company, who tried hard to make stuff in the UK, and ultimatly had to accept defeat...

 

Actually, there IS a successful RTR loco builder in the UK. Roundhouse. But I'm not sure you would like thier prices much, although the market they operate in seems happy.

 

Edit: Forgot Mamod. However, both they, and Roundhouse are making things  a lot less fiddly than OO.

[Mallard60022]

10 hours ago, Balgrayhill said:

I was at that stage in my life after 4 years unemployment, I took a job that paid less than the total benefits I was receiving, it was very tough at first but it paid off.  I have the self-respect of going out to work and contributing to society.  We all see the growing number of people out there that just aren't prepared to take a low paid job and work their way up.  We all want to earn money, but we all have to start somewhere.  I am facing redundancy, its a no-brainer that I might have to take a minimum wage job just to keep me working until I find something more in line with my current earnings.

 

We don't have a surplus in the UK of the skillset required assemble today's highly detailed model trains, which quite rightly commands a decent wage.   People would have to be trained on how to do it, which costs the manufacturer money, with no associated income, which ultimately has to be passed on to the customer.

 

" We all see"?

No 'we' don't.

[McC]

It’s not just locomotives. Our HYA / IIA wagons are 172 parts, 128 Tampo prints - per side! And include a magnetic relay activated scale flashing tail lamp on the end wagons. At full RRP they are just £37.47 each. That price includes VAT at 20%, shipping from the factory and postage to your door, and a return on our investment in tooling, research and our overheads. It would literally be impossible to make even this  wagon closer to home. 

[irishmail]

 VAT is 23% in Ireland.

[McC]

4 minutes ago, irishmail said:

 VAT is 23% in Ireland.

It is, however the HYA was made and sold by accurascale, a company registered in England and paying Her Majesty’s revenue 20% :) 

[eldomtom2]

1 hour ago, Phil Parker said:

Silly me. I also forgot their extensive range of highly detailed RTR locomotives made in the UK too.

This is rather dodging the point, especially since you ignored the examples given of RTR loco production in non-China non-UK countries.

[maico]

7 hours ago, Legend said:

China is still the cheapest option for manufacturing .

 

 

Depends on the product. Many running shoes are now made in Vietnam and Thailand.
I've just bought a pair of Asics, a Japanese company founded in the 1960s that Nike copied, and who have for many years used a miracle rubber compound on their soles. Very grippy in the wet yet very long-lasting. They were made in Cambodia.

The Samsung A22 smartphone I just bought was made in China and I expect the ESU Lokpilot decoder that arrived today was too. China has cornered electronics production for foreign companies.

[DK123GWR]

9 hours ago, john new said:

Difficult to post without being political, but some form of internationally agreed import tariff on goods from countries with low wages, no pensions, no H&S legislation, no decent affordable health care, etc., etc., would be a big start. It isn't just the industries you think of, ask anyone in Keynsham, Bournville or York about the lost confectionery works. Then again look at the way domestically  our hospitality trade and shop/retail workers are shafted at home in the UK and you realise those in power appear to like it the way it is.

 

Or better, some form of internationally agreed minimum for wages, pensions, H&S standards, affordable healthcare, etc., etc.

Obviously, that sort of reform will never come about through top-down processes, but that doesn't make it any less desireable.

[Nova Scotian]

1 hour ago, DK123GWR said:

Or better, some form of internationally agreed minimum for wages, pensions, H&S standards, affordable healthcare, etc., etc.

Obviously, that sort of reform will never come about through top-down processes, but that doesn't make it any less desireable.

I think the first place we'll see this is cross border adjustment on carbon pricing. This may swing the balance on things like chemicals, steel etc. Smaller, less energy intensive products, and lower value (like toy trains) will probably be much later to the game on being incorporated into those adjustments, and less impacted when they are.

I would love to see agreed minimums on H&S standards and environmental standards - I think wages, healthcare etc will be too challenging to account for local differences (and the US would probably fight it given their system). If only there were some trading block the UK could be part of where you could harmonise standards across, say, 28 countries, that would then have the negotiating power to include these regulations in their trade - which they'd be able to do because they'd be the largest single market in the world - shame nothing like that exists...

[adb968008]

On 21/05/2022 at 03:23, Johan DC said:

Yes, but both quality and detail are not up to modern standards. For me, all model railways are toys, from Accurascale to LGB, but Frateschi really is on the cheap. With AS, LGB and others, you can see that they really try to bring a smaller version of the real thing to life. FR is more about 'looks like it is good enough' filosophy. Hornby Railroad is finer in detail than those, and better quality as well. 

Perhaps thats an example of demonstrating that production in China is cheaper than Brazil and an indicator of what to expect if manufacturing returned here ?

 

(I disagree Hornby railroad is better, theres more detail parts to attach, but theres not much in it), but so QED.

Edited May 22, 2022 by adb968008

[Andy Mac]

I just find it amazing that when some of the manufacturers post on here and state unequivocally about the costs of manufacturing in China versus bring manufacturing back to the UK, that folk just don’t seem to accept the opinion/facts of people who have skin in the game…

[eldomtom2]

2 hours ago, Andy Mac said:

I just find it amazing that when some of the manufacturers post on here and state unequivocally about the costs of manufacturing in China versus bring manufacturing back to the UK, that folk just don’t seem to accept the opinion/facts of people who have skin in the game…

I would not call them an unbiased source.

And equally you find people on here who completely ignore the existence of non-Chinese manufacturing...