Red Heat Emergency week of 18th July 2022

[Titan]

11 hours ago, letterspider said:

Apparently there is a shortage of nearly 50000 rail engineers to blamehttp://www.infrastructure-intelligence.com/article/nov-2020/uk-rail-industry-faces-critical-skills-shortage-2025-says-new-report

 

I can confirm that it is not just apparent but very real, particularly in the sector I work in.  It is difficult to resource the projects we have, we have been on a strong recruitment drive for over 6 months which has not yielded much, and  I am also frequently contacted by desperate recruitment agencies.  One nice side effect is I recently got an unexpected pay rise and I can't help thinking that it is due to retention reasons.  I am quite happy with my current position/renumeration so it is not as if I had even subconsciously  hinted that I might go elsewhere, but nonetheless...

 

[letterspider]

8 hours ago, Ncarter2 said:

There are valid safety reasons, there are numerous things to consider, the engineering is only one aspect. Given the fallout, closing a line of route is never taken lightly. Let’s not forget, Tuesday’s temperatures are not something we typically experience, so why would we set up the infrastructure to cope with what is a ad hoc situation each year? It comes back to cost, spend billions of tax payer money to build in resilience to more extreme weather, or have a few days disruption. The condition and construction of our infrastructure is the single biggest issue, no if’s, no but’s. 
While I agree too many lives have been lost, I don’t think bad maintenance is the cause for that many compared with other reasons. 

 

There are a lot of arguments here about it not being cost effective to buy and maintain equipment for extreme weather events that are occuring rarely but that doesen't stop the airline industry, which also has to deal with the same weather.

 

Let's be honest - when you are working hard non stop throughout the year- you will breathe a sigh of relief that you'll get 2 paid days off because you can't get to work at the same time bemoaning how bad our railways are - I think that is the problem right there

 

[Wheatley]

1 hour ago, letterspider said:

There are a lot of arguments here about it not being cost effective to buy and maintain equipment for extreme weather events that are occuring rarely but that doesen't stop the airline industry, which also has to deal with the same weather.

 

You need far less snow to close a runway than a railway line, so the airport runway clearance kit is used more often than the railway needs to get the snowblowers and drift ploughs out. Provided the point heaters are working trains will run more or less normally in a couple of inches of snow, but you wouldn't want to land 45tons of Boeing 737 on the same 2" at 160mph with only  7000 feet to stop before you end up on Horsforth golf course. By the time you need snowblowers and drift ploughs the inability of staff to get into work to drive them because the roads are closed is a greater limiting factor than the capabilities of the kit. 

[Reorte]

10 hours ago, melmerby said:

But the Earth's mean temp is increasing, so any cold events are being outweighed by hot events.

Overall yes, but not necessarily in any specific location. The commonly-given example is what would happen if changes stopped the Gulf Stream. The UK would become much colder, even though the world overall would be warmer.

[Reorte]

32 minutes ago, Wheatley said:

 

You need far less snow to close a runway than a railway line, so the airport runway clearance kit is used more often than the railway needs to get the snowblowers and drift ploughs out. Provided the point heaters are working trains will run more or less normally in a couple of inches of snow, but you wouldn't want to land 45tons of Boeing 737 on the same 2" at 160mph with only  7000 feet to stop before you end up on Horsforth golf course. By the time you need snowblowers and drift ploughs the inability of staff to get into work to drive them because the roads are closed is a greater limiting factor than the capabilities of the kit. 

Plus of course there's a lot less runway to clear than there's railway line.

[Mallard60022]

Just to announce that it is 25* cooler here than on Tuesday (15* at the moment in 36E)

Such coolness is lovely.

P

[Reorte]

25 minutes ago, Mallard60022 said:

Just to announce that it is 25* cooler here than on Tuesday (15* at the moment in 36E)

Such coolness is lovely.

P

Similar here, and raining too (moderately, rather than downpours, so should have a chance to soak in), which is very welcome.

[Fat Controller]

On 20/07/2022 at 09:35, kevinlms said:

As evidence, look at the trouble BR has had with snow on a few occasions. One year, you had to bring a snow blower or whatever it's called, down from Scotland, as it's the only one. Then it goes back into storage for years as simply not required. Buying a fleet of them would be a poor way to spend lots of cash!

My recollection was that NSE bought a Snowblower following a period of heavy snow, which had caused the Isle of Sheppey to be cut off. When comparable further snow failed to materialise, the machine was eventually sent to Inverness.

 

[letterspider]

5 hours ago, Wheatley said:

 

You need far less snow to close a runway than a railway line, so the airport runway clearance kit is used more often than the railway needs to get the snowblowers and drift ploughs out. Provided the point heaters are working trains will run more or less normally in a couple of inches of snow, but you wouldn't want to land 45tons of Boeing 737 on the same 2" at 160mph with only  7000 feet to stop before you end up on Horsforth golf course. By the time you need snowblowers and drift ploughs the inability of staff to get into work to drive them because the roads are closed is a greater limiting factor than the capabilities of the kit. 

I stand corrected!

[mdvle]

7 hours ago, letterspider said:

There are a lot of arguments here about it not being cost effective to buy and maintain equipment for extreme weather events that are occuring rarely but that doesen't stop the airline industry, which also has to deal with the same weather.

 

For the airline industry when it comes to heat there are definite issues that they face that buying equipment can't solve.

 

If it gets too hot then it impacts the ability of the aircraft to take off - whether it be requiring a longer runway or making the aircraft lighter (fewer passengers/less freight) or even delaying the flight until temperatures cool down.

 

The difference though is that it typically doesn't get the same press coverage.

 

See this discussion - https://aviation.stackexchange.com/questions/1531/does-temperature-affect-takeoff-performance

 

[Phatbob]

17 hours ago, melmerby said:

But the Earth's mean temp is increasing, so any cold events are being outweighed by hot events.

I'm afraid not.  "Global warming" actually means "global more energy in the weather system".  So it will lead to more extreme weather.  More hot summers, more rain in the rest of the year, more flooding as a result and so on.  The temperature gradient that drives the Gulf Stream is declining as a result of global warming too.  If the Gulf Stream stops, we will have the most gawd awful winters.  The US Canada boorder is mostly at 49 degrees North.  The mid point of the UK is at about 54 degrees North IIRC.  So most of the UK would be Polar Bear country!

[F-UnitMad]

11 hours ago, letterspider said:

that doesen't stop the airline industry, which also has to deal with the same weather.

It did at Luton airport.... 🙄 😉

[melmerby]

20 hours ago, melmerby said:

But the Earth's mean temp is increasing, so any cold events are being outweighed by hot events.

 

2 hours ago, Phatbob said:

I'm afraid not.  "Global warming" actually means "global more energy in the weather system".  So it will lead to more extreme weather.  More hot summers, more rain in the rest of the year, more flooding as a result and so on.  The temperature gradient that drives the Gulf Stream is declining as a result of global warming too.  If the Gulf Stream stops, we will have the most gawd awful winters.  The US Canada boorder is mostly at 49 degrees North.  The mid point of the UK is at about 54 degrees North IIRC.  So most of the UK would be Polar Bear country!

Please let the climate scientists know they have got it wrong.

I apologise, posting all this twaddle I have read by them about the mean temperature having risen is obviously just bullsh*t.😄

[RFS]

4 hours ago, Phatbob said:

If the Gulf Stream stops, we will have the most gawd awful winters.  T

 

I wouldn't mind a nice cold winter now and then with "proper" snow.  Not had a real one since '63 when I was still a young lad. 😀

[AY Mod]

Had a chuckle at this https://www.independent.co.uk/travel/news-and-advice/caledonian-sleeper-train-man-wakes-glasgow-b2128949.html

[Phatbob]

2 hours ago, melmerby said:

 

Please let the climate scientists know they have got it wrong.

I apologise, posting all this twaddle I have read by them about the mean temperature having risen is obviously just bullsh*t.😄

Please read what I wrote again.  Global warming means more energy in the global weather system which leads to more extreme weather.  Higher highs, more wind, more rain, more weather, but also lower lows are a possible result.
Mean temperature is just that, the arithmetic mean, ie. the average over the year.  It has no direct bearing on what the extremes can be.  Any climate scientist would agree with that.  Please don't start being sarcastic if you can't understand what I'm trying to explain.

[melmerby]

36 minutes ago, Phatbob said:

Please read what I wrote again.

 

52 minutes ago, Phatbob said:

Mean temperature is just that, the arithmetic mean, ie. the average over the year.

Please read what I originally wrote, you seem to be misinterpreting me.

The mean is taken all over the world and all through the year. You can't have more cold than hot if the arithmetic mean of Earth's temperature is increasing.

Some places may get colder but if the overall mean has increased, some must have got hotter, hence my comment the cold is outweighed by the hot

 

If the Gulf Stream stops, having the same winters as NE Canada currently has, is not a given.

It's a lot more complicated than that, especially as they are currently cooled by the Gulf Stream in the same way we are warmed.

It will also depends on how winds behave.

 

[Nova Scotian]

I just feel really bad for all the modern image modelers who are desperately painting over their carefully weathered rails with white paint to stay true to prototype.

[letterspider]

6 hours ago, melmerby said:

 

Please read what I originally wrote, you seem to be misinterpreting me.

The mean is taken all over the world and all through the year. You can't have more cold than hot if the arithmetic mean of Earth's temperature is increasing.

Some places may get colder but if the overall mean has increased, some must have got hotter, hence my comment the cold is outweighed by the hot

 

If the Gulf Stream stops, having the same winters as NE Canada currently has, is not a given.

It's a lot more complicated than that, especially as they are currently cooled by the Gulf Stream in the same way we are warmed.

It will also depends on how winds behave.

 

 

Yes, you can have more extremes (a wider, broadening range of temperatures) and the mean energy can also increase. Think of a swing at the playground.

 

I have studied this in quite some detail and the problem is CO2 dissolved in the oceans. As the oceans warm, CO2 comes out of solution and into the atmosphere. This CO2 in the air traps more heat, warming the oceans. This positive feedback causes a very dangerous acceleration (runaway greenhouse effect); wherever you look at climate change indicators, we are seeing this pattern of acceleration and that is why the situation is very worrying. The changes are too fast for most of our staple crops to adapt for a start.

It will also cause a lot of problems for existing infrastructure as well. 

I haven't found any reports on the impact upon our hobby, although like smoke  sound and water, temperature does not scale well!

[Bucoops]

13 hours ago, AY Mod said:

Had a chuckle at this https://www.independent.co.uk/travel/news-and-advice/caledonian-sleeper-train-man-wakes-glasgow-b2128949.html

 

Reminds me of what happened to a friend once - got on a flight from Philly to somewhere, and fell asleep. Woke up with the bounce of the wheels on the runway. Because he'd been asleep he totally missed that they had been circling for a couple of hours to burn off fuel and land back at Philly for a technical issue. Most confused he was :D

[melmerby]

22 hours ago, Bucoops said:

 

Reminds me of what happened to a friend once - got on a flight from Philly to somewhere, and fell asleep. Woke up with the bounce of the wheels on the runway. Because he'd been asleep he totally missed that they had been circling for a couple of hours to burn off fuel and land back at Philly for a technical issue. Most confused he was :D

There was a report where some guy, after a few bevvies fell asleep on a bus, woke up in the garage at the end of the day after the bus had made several return trips of the timetable.

[DaveF]

I'll just put this here as well as Eraly Risers for those who do not visit it.

 

I heard from a friend today whose son is a farm manager in Lincolnshire. 

 

His men were doing some mole ploughing (to improve drainage) when the field vegetation caught fire.  He thinks the plough must have hit a piece of flint, sparked and that was enough to set the vegetation alight.  Fortunately they were able to put it out themselves, he then sent all his men home until it cooled down.

 

David