10 years down - what could the future look like?

[Andy Y]

I've never been one to stand still and think "that's it". I know experimentation with different or additional components may frustrate some who like the tried and trusted but if I adopted that approach we'd only be where we've been or where or others may presently be. In the early days it would have been unnecessary, foolish and misguided to say "what could RMweb be?" until it was possible to see what the needs may be or what people would potentially like to see or do. Ten years ago I don't think we'd have foreseen over a third of RMweb users using theirs mobiles or tablets (I'd used tablets in a commercial context in the late 90s and thought "wouldn't it be great if...."); in the wider world it's a lot more than that third for social or personal usage and the UK has been one of the fastest and largest, by percentage of the market, adopters of tablets. I'm sure there's a lot that will happen over the forthcoming decade; I'm interested to see if graphene-based flexible displays emerge which would allow viewing of digital content in a traditional "holdable & readable" form emerges but I'm sure there's a lot of things we could be doing in the future - an example:  digital, downloadable showguides incorporating layout articles, videos and the opportunity to comment, digital advertising of show offers from retailers present etc etc. It could be done but it would need a lot of up-front editing work and it would need a more expansive mindset by retailers within the hobby. Just thinking about that flexible graphene pad rolled up in your pocket; could you download your favourite magazines to it and have a comments section at the bottom of the article to discuss content with the author and other readers?

 

The IT industry has been banging on about wearables for a while but Google Glass (or similar) could be interesting if you could look at a layout at a show or a product on a shelf and gain further information through the augmented vision?

 

Looking at our own form of social media within the hobby I think there will be a continued place for something like RMweb; Facebook Groups (or similar) with their transient references and lack of depth don't thrill me; unconnected blogs despite blogrolls are just that, unconnected no matter how good one may be in isolation; I am interested in community softwares and their potential which sit somewhere between a forum and social media though.

 

Most of social media which suits a wider world does seem very transient to me whereas there is a permanent relevance in a lot of reference material and I think it's the lack of cohesion between conventional social media and solid reference material that worries me about general trends so as ever I think we'll be something slightly different from everything else and based on the needs or inclinations of the hobby.

 

So; in a Tomorrow's World style of "here's what you may get but will probably never see light of day again" what do you think the future could look like?

[Claude_Dreyfus]

 

Most of social media which suits a wider world does seem very transient to me whereas there is a permanent relevance in a lot of reference material and I think it's the lack of cohesion between conventional social media and solid reference material that worries me about general trends so as ever I think we'll be something slightly different from everything else and based on the needs or inclinations of the hobby.

 

 

That is a particularly valid point...and one that was recently raised by someone senior at Google. With so much information - both public (such as newpapers and magazines) and private (such as photographs) - now 'virtual', we do run the risk of the current time being an information dark-age, ironic bearing in mind we probably have more information, more readily accessible, than at any time in history. I am fully behind the forum evolving, and the nature of technology means we are unlikely to even envisage what the possibilities are in ten years time, but I would like to see some of the more interesting, and useful, threads on here take a more tangible nature. Sure, there are magazine articles, but very few show the evolution of a model; the changes of direction following discussions on the forum, or the questions and answers around prototype research. There is so much knowledge on here, it would be a huge asset to see some of it transferred from the virtual world of the forum to something more physical; a legacy, for want of a better word.

[Allegheny1600]

Thinking in terms of Roco's Z21, I wonder if it would be possible for say, me to drive a loco on my mates layout?

Permissions would have to be granted first obviously but with camera locos and wifi connections, I don't see why not!

I think this isn't perhaps quite what you had in mind with your OP but it could be in the future.

Cheers,

John E.

[Rugd1022]

 

So; in a Tomorrow's World style of "here's what you may get but will probably never see light of day again" what do you think the future could look like?

 

Raymond Baxter will become Prime Minister for all eternity, James Burke will be the grand overseer of Wheeltappers and we'll all be sporting 'The Patented Michael Rodd Side Parting '.

 

Run VT....

[The Stationmaster]

I think the lower level forms of social media (which all too often seem to turn out to be anti-social media) are bound to change or they will die, my only concern is what they might change into!

 

The more advanced forms of social media - those which group people with a common interest or purpose or which provide a forum for specialist exchange of knowledge and hobby interest - are also going to change I think.  There will be a user demand for greater refinement, simpler reference to specialist knowledge and tips or constructional articles lodged within the forum or whatever which will in turn demand potentially complex but very easy (for the user) to interrogate databases.  This will quite possibly link into a system which 'profiles' one's interest and then bombards you with whatever - a sort of 'google ads for data which might interest you' albeit with a potential risk that the user might miss data which the system doesn't think 'interests' them.

 

So a potential march of more sophisticated forum software but hopefully one which retains a level of human user control rather than giving you what it wants  (and might even include a spillchocker in proper job English???)

 

So RMweb style formats (i.e. the more advanced form of social media) are very likely to survive but they will change. The change will undoubtedly increase costs which means, I think, the end of the completely free to access style of forum (or those which do survive will only do so in less sophisticated formats).  That increase in costs will clearly then lead down a couple of potential avenues - either membership, or full membership to reach all features and information, by subscription - or a wholly commercially sponsored forum which is part of something else, e.g a subject related publishing or marketing organisation.  This move might well be driven by other reasons too because as bandwidth demand rises there will come a time when there are no old tv or radio wavebands left to close down and auction off so bandwidth itself could increase in price thus forcing charges for that reason.

[Dagworth]

A flat green baseboard with only track, your active glasses detect what the train is and add the scenery appropriate to the era of the train....

 

Andi

[Stubby47]

I'd like to see more home made videos on how things are done - such as Coachman's track laying, Westerner's scenic methods, or Allan Downes' pub making.

 

This would need simple to use & edit video software, plus a simple to upload hosting area.

 

Plus members being confident in front of, or voicing over, the camera.

[Torr Giffard LSWR 1951-71]

Nice question Andy,

 

I foresee the continued speeding up of the evolution of model railways as a result of improvements/developments in IT esp. related to sharing of knowledge and ability to link design programming with increasingly complex hardware such as lasers, cutting & shape forming machines. Thus, models/layouts previously off the radar in ambition for modellers become routine.

 

Also, RTR models to suit all pockets and requirements of detailing/accuracy.

 

The shape of the hobby will change continually but the increasing opportunities for new and more ambitious/technically advanced modelling should make it attractive to a wider audience.

 

Dave 

[Mike Storey]

Dunno.

 

But, for the model railway, I think, if it works well, that on-board power will be the norm. No more spending hours/days wiring up, spending a fortune on live frogs, juicers and so on, or cleaning the effing track. It would also mean freedom from the need to create an almost laboratory-condition environment in which to house our layouts. The advent of micro Li-Po batteries seems to have brought this possibility much closer now.

[Clive Mortimore]

The future ..............................502 Bad Gateway :no:

 

Sorry that was the past, earlier today :jester:

 

I never predict the future as something always appears and messes it up, so I just go with the flow :locomotive:

[Harry Lime]

We are already seeing the introduction of 3D printing technology. so maybe not that far ahead, we will be able to go to a show, order something from a catalogue at the show and pick up the printed item on our way home?

 

I can also see us using 3D headsets/glasses to operate trains using eye movements rather than handsets on DCC - setting routes and acting as signalmen could be done the same way.

 

The same manual problems of transportation and putting up baseboards might still exist, unless there comes a time when The Jetsons' methods of transport become viable...

[Astockfan101]

The cylons would take control of all DCC models.

 

I get m'e coat then

 

but really I think that crossrail will be open and the fell diesel will have a model.

[station cat]

What about virtual visits to model railway shows? Cameras are getting ever smaller and cheaper and bandwidth is increasing so why not have cameras trained on every layout at a show, perhaps offering a variety of viewing angles? People would then pay to access the material being broadcast. You could, in fact, have a virtual show where the layouts were all filmed in their home locations.

 

I think the internet is a good thing for the hobby, it makes it so much easier to find information and source equipment - even without 3D printing a lot of layout building opportunities are opening up that weren't there a few years ago. There's also so much more inspiration on offer.

 

In terms of RM web, I think we will probably see more people uploading videos and perhaps sharing 3D print designs and so on. I think there will be a future for forums in general because they facilitate the spread/discussion of specialist information.

[Kenton]

I think the days of "freedom" of the web are numbered and the next 10 years will see even more data control of this media by corporations/government.

 

I believe that wearables such as a watch are doomed to flop. Apple et al seem to have convinced us to do away with a time piece strap on and carry a brick in the pocket instead. Being tethered to that brick just to flick your wrist seems a reverse step. As for heads up displays on glasses can the masses be convinced to wear goggles?

 

I believe health monitoring will move forward from step monitors and pulse counters but I foresee a backlash as we realise that making that data (and such things as heart monitors, fingerprints, dna?) to be monitored (owned) by big brother. Data in general is going to increase and the dependence on it in electronic form but will the freedom remain to add to and assess it. Too much information and the human brain simply overloads. So who selects what is available?

 

Back to RMWeb, one of the things that has always concerned me is the enormity of information that is contained among all the fluff. There is at the moment no way of collating this information from all the (flankly) dross. A topic starts sometimes a very serious start and it soon is overcome by a lot of the social chat. That is all good and fun, what makes this place so good to return to a feel alive, but the facts seem to get drowned out. Then they pop up again in another topic. So too much repetition and no way to be able to do a good search/collation. There is no format that I know of that resolves this. Perhaps technology will come to the rescue. As data volumes increase it is going to be an issue not only for RMWeb.

 

As for Twitter and Facebook I think they are transient. I still do not use them and find no good use for them or any of their ME2 copies. But then I also think that online gaming is only an offshoot of online gambling, and I know of seveal "youngsters" who eschew it seeing the monster that it has become.

['CHARD]

the f*** diesel will have a model.

 

Assuming Hell freezes over in late 2024, that is 

 

Ten years on, I'll have laid track on Teviotbank V32, but will be adjusting alignments for the seventeenth time.  

 

Plain line only on the scenic sections, as RTP points in 00-FS, promised in 2017 have yet to arrive in the UK's last remaining physical model shop, HattonRails of Redruth.

 

Bachmann will announce a facelift of the Class 47, offering it in liveries that were carried by one loco for under forty-eight hours and that never appeared on the main line.

 

45015 has finally atomised from mazak rot at Shackerstone, and Leicestershire CC declares an exclusion zone of 12 km radius as a clean up akin to a dirty bomb is rolled out.

 

Boris will have his own section of RMWeb, as landlord of its virtual pub.  There will only be e-pubs remaining, as the Elf-Safety coalition government legislation banning real ones entered the statute books in 2022.

[PatB]

Dapol will be promising the release of their 08 for "Early next year".

[Mikkel]

Livestreaming does seem like an obvious next step, from exhibitions but also permanently from home layouts - eg livestreaming from A Nod to Brent and 50 other layouts every evening webcam style, and loco mounted camera sessions as mentioned above. I could see a large subsection of a forum evolving around that, with associated threads/chat (like it or not!).

 

That's not only good though. There's a risk it could become very transient (very much agree with that point about Facebook) and lack real substance. Gotta keep the focus on quality content, I think.

[TomE]

I believe that wearables such as a watch are doomed to flop. Apple et al seem to have convinced us to do away with a time piece strap on and carry a brick in the pocket instead. Being tethered to that brick just to flick your wrist seems a reverse step. As for heads up displays on glasses can the masses be convinced to wear goggles?

There were similar comments made about the iPad when Apple first launched that, afterall what possible use could anyone have for what amounted to nothing more than a large iPhone, but without the phone. (I'm reading and replying to this from my iPad....) Now that Apple have entered the wearables market, it is very likely history will repeat itself. Love them or hate them, nobody quite makes products people never knew they wanted like Apple!

 

I find it difficult to predict how railway modellers will interact in the next ten years. Technology is advancing at such a pace that what seems like it should be in an episode of Star Trek could well be in the mainstream in the next few years. I don't think we're quite approaching the stage where we simply tell a hole in the wall that we'd like a 1:148th scale Class whatever and then simply watch it materialise, but 4-5 years ago who would have thought that 3D printing would be playing an ever increasing role in our modelling, not just on a commercial basis but also now in the home.

 

The problem right now is that technology is a very personal thing. Some people choose to embrace it, others to distance themselves from it. Make it too simple and people fear malevolent forces are at work, try to explain and you alienate those who don't understand it. I think it fair to say however that as far as technology is concerned railway modelling is at a crossroads. As the older generation make way for a new generation who have grown up with technology as part of their daily lives, it will form a much larger part of the the hobby and perhaps then we will start to see more interactive technology such as Google Glass, or augmented reality appearing in use at exhibitions etc.

 

Who knows, maybe one day it will be possible to walk onto the holodeck and visit the warley show at any time you like. And if there are too many backpacks or questionable odours, you simply ask the computer to remove them!

 

One can always dream I suppose.......

 

Tom.

[ian]

And in ten years time people will still be predicting the end of the hobby....

[Neil]

.... what do you think the future could look like?

 

Globally or personally?

 

If I look back over the last decade I've pretty much continued with the old, tried and trusted products and techniques. I still use dc, my locos don't make a noise, my mobile phone can't even take pictures let alone be smart, I paint with Humbrol enamels, I prefer to sprinkle fibres rather than electrostaticly charge them; my sole concession to modernity has been to sample a few 3-D prints, the work of others, but I'm happiest with glue and plastic.

 

With a hobby wide perspective, I could see products and processes that take away the need to physically make items and objects, gathering momentum. With PC literacy in the ascendant and a lessening of basic craft skills in the general population, it would appear to be an obvious direction of travel. I'd cite as further evidence the growth of ever more niche 'ready to' products.

 

However I'd be willing to bet that if you look at my workbench in ten years time, it will be populated with the same collection of tools, glues and materials.

[Spitfire2865]

As much as I enjoy how things sit currently, I fear that change is inevitable. In the past year and a bit, Ive discovered Rmweb and it has quickly become my indisputable unmissable daily activity, other than reading Phil Parkers blog.

Id hate to see it go, but I guess I can welcome change as long as it stays a community which quite frankly feels like a family...sometimes.

Will our hobby bring in new generations, will it continue as strong as it is. We need our modelling community to ensure this knowledge and experience doesnt disappear. We also need to ensure it doesnt become purely digital.

Where would the fun be in going to a virtual show, downloading a model, virtual reality train sets, or ordering Everything over the web. Even with the endless internet, I still love going to a hobby shop, browsing the shelves, and picking a tin of paint or a couple files just to support it if I cant find something to buy.

This hobby is physical and real. We should keep it that way.

 

But hey, what do I know. If it wasnt off being repaired, Id be now hearing the ticking of my pocket watch.

[Ozexpatriate]

Most of social media which suits a wider world does seem very transient to me

Yes, like a twitter spat between an entertainer and a super model, or whether the staff down at Jeremy Clarkson's nearest job center likes tea or coffee.

 

whereas there is a permanent relevance in a lot of reference material and I think it's the lack of cohesion between conventional social media and solid reference material that worries me about general trends.

Yes, very much so. One of the great values RMweb has is connecting people to subject matter about our particular hobby.

 

It's great that many members have bookshelves full of books published about railways in England, but is there are path for that information to be better catalogued and accessible? (Without travelling to England I can't purchase them.)

 

Most of us don't have collections of railway ephemera like timetables or postcards and almost none of these are online and even if they are they are not searchable.

 

While many members have seen the railways in operation, few have a real railwayman's viewpoint. How do we get information about signalling or operating practice as a repository?

 

Questions like what colours where used on upholstery pre-1950 will soon be unanswerable. Even locomotive colur for anything pre 1923 is very difficult.

 

I was looking for something today. I remembered a film that I saw linked here about a man and wife who dressed up in railway uniforms and operated an 0 gauge railway in a big farm shed. It might have been newsreel footage, (though it was in colour). I wanted to look at it again, but I couldn't find it - and that's something that is definitely here (or the link is).

 

How do we include things like track and signalling diagrams, locomotive histories by number and photographs as a database that enables more research? Can RMweb play a part ten years from now?

[Ozexpatriate]

I'm sure there's a lot of things we could be doing in the future - an example:  digital, downloadable showguides incorporating layout articles, videos and the opportunity to comment, digital advertising of show offers from retailers present etc etc. It could be done but it would need a lot of up-front editing work and it would need a more expansive mindset by retailers within the hobby.

There's an online real estate listing/advertising company with television advertisements in heavy rotation. They show a 3D composite view of the whole house with a 3D walk-through. (Not all their properties show this.)

 

That ad gave me an idea though.

 

Using a device+software to create 3D rendering of someone's layout for a virtual walk-through would be pretty cool and something that cannot be done in conventional printed media.

 

This kind of 'augmented world' stuff is interesting.

 

I can easily see things like this to be commonplace for 'showing our layouts' ten years from now.

[Kenton]

 

Some ethical and more importantly legal questions to answer!

Perhaps also by then the police will have been privatised and the "home" will be equipped with security measures aimed at vapourising such bandits. Ethics - what ethics. How often does the average house change hands? Tomorrow's purchaser has no knowledge of how much information the previous owner(s) have published on the web. The thief doesn't know that the old rich geezer with 100's of O gauge prize acquisitions, freely photographed and shown on the web, has moved on and the house is now occupied by a large family of Euratian's on benefits.

 

I think that change is inevitable, but we have become accustomed for it to happen apparently overnight. I'm not so convinced that the rate of change will be so immediate over the next 10 years.

[chrisf]

10 years from now modellers of the [to them] recent past will be cursing the knuckle-dragging security goons employed by railway companies who did so much to prevent photographers recording the contemporary scene.  They will envy those who choose to model more ancient times such as the 1950s and can find out how things were done in the time of their grandparents far more easily. 

 

This assumes, of course, that new modellers come forward who can do much more than open boxes.  With their willingness to paint, innovate, adapt and build they will benefit from an e-community where they can rub e-shoulders with wise and capable fellows who will help them learn by e-xample how and when to do this and feel comfortable doing it.  Some of those wise and capable are still alive but no longer here and the RMweb of 2025, or sooner, will be the poorer without them.

 

Chris