Scottish Loco Poll

[Caledonian]

From Mr Lovett:

 

Many thanks for your letter regarding the poll of Scottish locomotives recently conducted on RMweb. As you may have gathered we do monitor such activities as part of our media programme.

 

In order for any locomotive type to be considered (irrespective of geographical or other events) a number of criteria have to be met. As a company we have active files on about 20 motive power items at any one time. Some will end up in our catalogue; others will fall by the wayside for a number of reasons (including other manufacturers announcements) or emerge again in future years. Any programme has to have a balance and our own 2010 announcements clearly reflect this with Bachmann entering a couple of new areas.

 

Locomotives that do make it into the catalogue have often been requested over a considerable period of time. They have probably been in the top few positions of the wish lists produced at this time of year for some time.

 

I spoke to many people on the subject of Scottish locomotives at this years Glasgow show. As you will appreciate this has only become an area of activity in the last few months and certainly far to late to influence any 2010 or indeed 2011 programme, our own 2011 programme being agreed last month in order for the Research and Development Team the opportunity to start gathering in all the data required to produce a model, along with images, works drawings and other essential information.

 

Any locomotive would need to attract initial sales of at least 5,000 and 9,000 over time. We have experience in working with the NRM (DP1 Deltic and ‘City of Truro’) and Murphy Models to produce exclusive editions for those organisations. In the case of the Murphy clas 141/181 versions, a large number of livery variations were possible in order to justify the tooling costs.

 

Any Scottish model considered for sale will need to take into account geographical spread, have a long service life (preferably lasting as close until the end of steam as possible) and livery options. For example a Highland Railway Castle Class is unlikely to meet this criteria as it was a small class (19 locomotives built 1900-1917), was withdrawn between 1930 and 1947 and operated only north of Perth.

 

Any locomotive chosen would require extensive works general assembly drawings, photographic back-up and ideally be preserved to enable cross checking of information.

 

Perhaps a way forward would be to identify the sales potential of the chosen subject through existing group memberships (such as the Caledonian or North British organiatons), leading Scottish retailers and model railway clubs (perhaps through the Association of Scottish Model Railway Clubs – the organisers of the Model Rail event in Glasgow). At the moment, sadly the information provided is not going to compete against more called for locomotive classes.

 

We do not rely simply on wish list polls. We also use a mix of customer feedback together with a helping of “gut†feeling. Some like the K3 and Mark 2 coaches have not had the projected sales that they should have generated from being ever requested items…

 

At the end of the day, then any model we make must be commercially viable and sell in considerable quantities in order to justify the high cost of development and tooling.

 

I wish you well in your endeavours and look forward to seeing the gathered data.

 

 

So there we have it. The missing paragraph discussed a series he’s been involved in writing in the Bachmann Collectors Club magazine, on recreating Kirriemuir Station (which is exactly the sort of layout we need to be publicising) by way of demonstrating he’s not unsympathetic.

 

I think the technical data we provided met a lot of his criteria, though it can obviously be bulked up from a single side of A4 on re-submission; the critical thing though is going to be demonstrating that our chosen three (or if the worst comes to the worst just the 439 and the J36) will command extensive sales and that, as he suggests, means knocking on a lot of doors.

[Guest Max Stafford]

Well, I think we have to extend thanks to Dennis for laying down so clearly Bachmann's policy and strategy regarding new projects.

He makes the points in a pragmatic and reasonable manner, using the Highland Castle as a case in point. I think in that respect we have already done a bit of the donkey work, but if we are going to convince Dennis of the viability of our project (and he warns of the pitfalls, illustrated by the K3 and Mk2s) then we are definitely, as he suggested going to have to get some big guns aboard in the form of the societies, clubs and, I suggest, the relevant heritage lines too. I wonder for example how many nice blue No 828s would be snapped up by the American and Japanese tourists on Speyside?

My perception here is that Bachmann will consider our projects if we work hard and build up a balanced and mature case for production. Ultimately, although the final decision will be made at Barwell, it really is very much up to us to build this case and show not only how much we want these models, but how ready the general modelling community will be to put hands in pockets and buy them!

It's going to be a big, big job, but as the end results are potentially glorious, let's get our heads together and get cracking!

 

Dave.

[coachmann]

We also use a mix of customer feedback together with a helping of “gut†feeling.

I suspect anyone involved in manufacturing, whether they be big or small, will identify with this sentiment. When it comes to RTR locomotives, I think the best Scotland can hope for are locos that are riding on the back of English prototypes. In other words, if a GCR 'Director' was selling well it would not be too costly to produce a smallish run with reduced boiler mountings to represent the Scottish variant.

 

In similar vein, the LMS Compound could have a batch numbered between 900 and 924 to represent the batch built for Scotland.

 

If/when Bachmann ever replaces the old split-chassis on its J39, it might consider the smaller wheeled J38 Scottish variant.

 

Larry

[Jamie]

When it comes to RTR locomotives, I think the best Scotland can hope for are locos that are riding on the back of English prototypes.

Larry

Why's that? Because it would strengthen the English loco's case? Or because say the GER or whatever has a bigger following than the CR/NBR?

 

It is certainly ambitious while the market for any pregroup locomotive is still somewhat unproven. However, no harm in trying.

 

A J38? As we say in this neck of the woods, haud me back. Useful, perhaps, cheap mod to the J39, perhaps, but would the casual observer spot (and care about) the difference enough to buy one? I don't think it'd sell anything like as well as the more distinctive types proposed earlier.

 

(repeated edits, almost as bad as that Teviotbank chappie)

Edited March 14, 2010 by Jamie

[Guest Max Stafford]

Why's that? Because it would strengthen the English loco's case? Or because say the GER or whatever has a bigger following than the CR/NBR?

 

It is certainly ambitious while the market for any pregroup locomotive is still somewhat unproven. However, no harm in trying.

 

A J38? As we say in this neck of the woods, haud me back.

 

Jamie, in response to your first question, I think both suppositions are correct. If you can extend the potential marketability of your tooling and pull in another group of buyers by building in some variability in the case of the D11, it adds further commercial justification for the basic project. In general population terms there are more people in the south of the UK than in the north. This can be extrapolated into the railway world in both real and modelling terms. More people may well model the GE/GC because there are more people around in that corner of the country who have first hand experience of those railways. If you consider that the GC extended from London, right up through the East Midlands into South Lancashire and Yorkshire, then that's one hell of a big and heavily populated catchment area!

 

Your next point regarding pre-group locomotives is also valid, we are definitely entering uncharted territory here, particularly vis a vis the 3F. I will be supporting this particular model because it has potential to lead to even better and for us more relevant enterprises, although I'll buy Coach's Lanky goods too, if it gets us nearer to a Jumbo!

 

Finally, yes indeedy, I'll take a J38 or three as well!

 

Dave.

[Jamie]

Thanks for response Dave, I kind of fudged both of my points, will try again with sharper mind. Larry seemed quite dismissive of the entire case, and I wondered why.

[Guest Max Stafford]

Just playing Devil's advocate as somebody who's been involved in business decisions, I'd guess.

On the other hand, he's not above a little 'baiting' at times...!

 

Dave.

[Russ (mines a pint)]

1. 
   

Why's that? Because it would strengthen the English loco's case? Or because say the GER or whatever has a bigger following than the CR/NBR?

 

It is certainly ambitious while the market for any pregroup locomotive is still somewhat unproven. However, no harm in trying.

 

Well the MR 3F coming up probably is now going to be the test for that 2nd statement-its an 0-6-0 as well

- as for the first I dont think its either I dont think any pre-group has a big following compared to the bigger picture,

some of the scottish locos proposed where the longest lived, and outlasted big 4 types.

 

I think in the Bachmann thread you probably hit the nail on the head that the companies (Bachmann & Hornby) are based in what I would call the south, never mind you- and that they will get a greater representation because of that. The balance of population also supports that as you go South population density increases greatly, their market research may depend on nearness to a model shop, and I can think of a lot of places in Scotland where that might involve a round trip of 100 miles or more!

 

- as regards types common to both England(and particularly the northern uplands of England) and Scotland might be a worthwhile road to pursue if pure scottish engines are not viable just yet - the J39/J38 idea is just one tho' I also suspect Mr. average punter would not notice wheel size differences- theres also the K's and Crabs which were commonplace.

 

With the stuff done and reported so far it might be a good chance to stand back from the original goal of quintessential Scottish loco type and compare with what could be done to get people on board modelling Scottish locations in general- and look to the SR and southern region stuff for clues- its taken them along time to get an EMU for instance.

[26power]

Seems to me to be a relatively constructive response from Bachmann.  Or at least dismissive in a very polite way!

 

I wonder if the comments re the K3 mean it didn't/hasn't washed its face financially, or just that not as successful as hoped for.  eg I don't recall them being offered at the clearance prices of some items, but then the one or two I have already are probably enough for me not to ne watching that market too closely.

 

Seems to me to be either a J36 or a Caley 0-4-4 represents the best two likely to succeed.  I wonder if there is a "Remembrance" angle with regard to the J36, given their WW1 involvement?

 

Photos, information etc.  

Both Maude and 419 are out of Service at Bo'ness at the moment.  The intention seems to be to get 419 overhauled quickly for 50th anniversary of SRPS (next year).  Might enable photos whilst stripped down, but at same time reducing opportunities for pics of a "complete" loco.  Historic photos - a database of all published photos in service would be useful.  A detailed class history, loco by loco of differences, changes, liveries carried etc. would no doubt be beneficial.  Similarly information of who, what and where has un-published stuff.  eg are there works drawings available, and if so where?

 

It might be that this detailed info would help someone other than the big two progress any eventual model.

 

 

 

Market research

How to undertake a polling of sufficient modellers to get an useful  and large enough response seems to be the big challenge.  I'm not sure you even found all the Scottish modellers on RMWeb who might be interested, because of the sub-forum where it is.  I think I was pretty late in finding it, for example.

 

Here's a couple of thoughts:

 

Get one of the mags onboard, maybe if they already have some sort of wishlist poll?  eg how was a market for a Sentinel shunter demonstrated?

 

Undertake a survey at next year's Glasgow show, on the presumption that most in Scotland that have the sort of interest in this sort of loco will go there.  But how to maximise the response?  Something in the guide to fill in/hand in?  Not everyone gets a guide.  Hand out simple questionnaires to all entering?  People already have lots of things on their minds or "family" market unlikely to be interested.  People with clipboards asking?  Unlikely to reach as many folk.  Increase response by making responses worthwhile - prize draw for all entries?  Major effort/decent number of people required to get a decent response.  Probably need in this day and age professional info boards/pictures eg these roll up things.  All costs money.  eg how good a response to Strathspey extension appeal at this year's exhibition was there?

 

Or do the same at Warley - maybe a more representative test of the market?

 

The questions being asked would have to reflect the reality of the likely asking price.  eg no good asking would you buy a 00 model of a J36, for example.  Far too many Scottish modellers would say yes, on the presumption it was £30, or something equally out of date.  It needs to be in context.  eg, how likely would you be to buy a 00 J36 at £xxx, and then a range of not at all through to most definitely.  Then ask how many.  £xxx reflecting the RRP of, say,  the new 3F.  (Which is £69.95 on Bachmann's price list).  You would also need to know how many people asked, I guess, so that an answer could be extrapolated.

 

I wonder how much heed Hornby pay to their poll, since nothing to stop people making multiple responses, either at the one show or at multiple shows.  Noticeable that Bachmann don't do a poll at exhibitions.

 

Maybe a Glasgow poll could be wider ranging and by AMRSS to inform manufacturers about the wider Scottish market?

 

Whatever, you probably need people who have a far better understanding of how to undertake this sort of poll/market research than I certainly have!

 

Cheers,

 

26power

 

 

 

 

[Caledonian]

All good ideas, but I think we need to get out there talking to people long before next year's show.

 

As to the "riding on the back of something else" argument,I don't buy that and I'd suggest the disappointment over the K3 illustrates why.

 

I've thought about one myself but never bothered because while Bachmann are offering a Scottish allocated one in black as well as an English green one, its just not distinctive enough. I bought a third Black 5 instead. A Director or a J38, well maybe, but there's no great enthusiasm and at best its going to be a take that if there's nothing else going...

 

A 439 or a J36 on the other hand, very different story with the former in glorious Caley blue for special editions and the latter as Maude for the WW1 centennial.

 

Lets keep thinking big and distinctive rather than settling for a half hearted compromise - we're already compromising with post grouping locos allocated to Scotland - after all if Bachmann can see a viable case of the localised S&DJR, surely we can offer even better.

 

As to the particulars, we've successfully identified the most useful locos; what we now need to do is find how many people are likely to buy an RTR 439 and/or a J36 if offered one.

[Jol Wilkinson]

I've just caught up with this topic on return from holiday and can't help thinking that some of you haven't yet realised how difficult it will be to get Bachmann or Hornby to produce what you want unless you can definitevely prove or underwrite a level of sales that will meet their commercial criteria.

 

Whenever they introduce a new model it is something of a financial gamble. The Bachmann Super D appears to fit most of their requirements for longevity, wide geographical useage, ease of access to information, etc. but hasn't appeared in a LNWR variant as it requires retooling for the round top boiler and they presumably think the potential sales volume wouldn't be worthwhile. The LNWR Society were involved in discussions about an LNWR liveried version (albeit with the Belpaire firebox - and hence inaccurate) and were advised that a minimum volume of 500 would be required.

 

I'm therefore inclined to think that unless you could form a commercial partnership with an organisation/retailer(s) to undertake to purchase a large proportion of the break even volume of product, then your wishes will remain unfulfilled.

 

If the potential sales volume is likely to fall short of what Bachmann or Hornby cosnider viable, then you may have to look elsewhere, such as a low volume production run from a company like 00 Works.

 

You could also turn your energy to building from the kits that are available. If those aren't totally satisfactory (chassis, for example), then perhaps you could get the kit manufactuer to supply the castings and commission new etched chassis from the likes of Worsley Works.

[Jamie]

I... can't help thinking that some of you haven't yet realised how difficult it will be to get Bachmann or Hornby to produce what you want

 

Possibly.

 

It might come across that one thread on one internet site should be enough to convince the manufacturers, the big two, to do us a model. However, I think there's a clear sense of realism, not least from Caledonian who's leading this effort admirably.

 

I'll personally be happy if we see some consideration given, if we can present a strong enough case for a manufacturer to take any notice, even if the answer is - "well played, but no". That much looks promising already, top marks to the man from Barwell for the considered response.

 

You also mention kits, this does worry me. AFAIA the Scottish loco scene is under-served even in kit form, scraping the barrel of Ebay for 1970s vintage whitemetal kits (with worthy exceptions, e.g. Caley Coaches kits, some Highland stuff too) is not really much indication of a strong market.

 

26power's post, typed in authentic BR maroon above, is worthy of further consideration as to the way forward.

 

J.

[Jol Wilkinson]

Possibly.

 

It might come across that one thread on one internet site should be enough to convince the manufacturers, the big two, to do us a model. However, I think there's a clear sense of realism, not least from Caledonian who's leading this effort admirably.

 

I'll personally be happy if we see some consideration given, if we can present a strong enough case for a manufacturer to take any notice, even if the answer is - "well played, but no". That much looks promising already, top marks to the man from Barwell for the considered response.

 

You also mention kits, this does worry me. AFAIA the Scottish loco scene is under-served even in kit form, scraping the barrel of Ebay for 1970s vintage whitemetal kits (with worthy exceptions, e.g. Caley Coaches kits, some Highland stuff too) is not really much indication of a strong market.

 

26power's post, typed in authentic BR maroon above, is worthy of further consideration as to the way forward.

 

J.

 

Jamie,

 

I must admit that, as someone who has no option but to kitbuild to create the model I want, it is possible to find RTR wishlists and polls a bit frustrating. Over the years I've developed the view that, if you really want a specific model you either have to build it from a kit, scratchbuild it or even design/produce a kit. That's how most of our kit manufacturers started, learning the skills and techniques from scratch.

 

If you don't want to tread that path, then pressurising the RTR manufacturer to produce what you want seems the obvious way to go. However, there are going to be many others with similar ideas, so you need to be ahead of the competition with the commercial viability and desirability of your chosen model.

 

Increasingly, modern technology is starting to provide alternative opportunities for low volume production. Rapid prototyping as demonstrated at the recent Watford show and being explored by Bill Bedford amongst others is one such technique. Resin casting can also be used for small production runs. Photo etching is another technique that we are well used to. It may be that "thinking outside the box" would provide a way forward if the RTR manufacturers aren't willing to provide what you want. It may cost a bit more, it may take more effort (although there doesn't seem to be shortage of that being applied to the approach to Bachmann and Hornby) but you would get what you want. And, having done it once, it's easier to do it again.

 

If you don't want to do those things, I think that the rate of introduction of new models by the big boys means that a lot of wishlists will never be fulfilled.

[Jamie]

Thanks for the considered response LNWRmodeller. I guess in that context, this present thread appears to be aiming to be ahead of the competition lobbying the manufacturers.

 

FWIW my own needs are not served out the box either, nor are they likely to regardless of whether this effort bears any fruit.

[34theletterbetweenB&D]

... As to the "riding on the back of something else" argument,I don't buy that and I'd suggest the disappointment over the K3 illustrates why.

 

I've thought about one myself but never bothered because while Bachmann are offering a Scottish allocated one in black as well as an English green one, its just not distinctive enough. I bought a third Black 5 instead. ...

You just lost me there. You are not interested in a RTR offering that actually operated in Scotland. A Black 5 is no more or less distinctive of Scotland than a K3. While the K3 is pre-grouping design in origin, roundy top boilered like most Scottish loco designs, the precursor of a small class specifically built for service in Scotland... Foot, shot, yourself, in the .

[Caledonian]

You just lost me there. You are not interested in a RTR offering that actually operated in Scotland. A Black 5 is no more or less distinctive of Scotland than a K3. While the K3 is pre-grouping design in origin, roundy top boilered like most Scottish loco designs, the precursor of a small class specifically built for service in Scotland... Foot, shot, yourself, in the .

 

The operative word (sorry ) is "operated". Its not a Scottish locomotive, so if I'm buying an English locomotive that operated in Scotland I'd much rather have a Black Five, especially as I prefer to model the north of Scotland where they were pretty ubiquitous, hence having three. This thread and the previous one is aimed at persuading the big boys to invest in one or more native Scottish locomotives, rather than have to run a stable made up entirely of imported ones.

 

Put it another way; if I modelled the Southern, would I be shooting myself in the foot by declining to buy say a Fairburn tank and holding out instead for something like an M7?

[Guest Max Stafford]

I think you're being a little harsh there, 34. Yes, K3s indeed were seen, mainly on the eastern side of Scotland on former NB sections, but they had all gone by 1961-2. Post nationalisation though, the 5MT pretty much became THE standard Scottish mixed traffic loco and along with the 4MTT and a couple of J36s became the last type to work in Scotland in 1967.

Taking all that into account, I think Caledonian's selection of another 5MT was pretty justified as they got pretty much everywhere other than a handful of light railways.

 

Dave.

[34theletterbetweenB&D]

Not as harsh as commercial assessment: I would not be in the least surprised if our friends at Barwell and Margate analyse their sales in some detail. If they see that models for a particular territory show poorer relative sales, what likely conclusion will they draw? In terms of achieved sales you are up against an army of customers buying 'anything' Swindonian, and apparently a substantial number up for those items that ran on Southern lines (even if the design originated in Crewe or Derby), and even people like me willing to buy J39s for a Southern ECML layout where the J39 was a rarity as a 'place holder' for the native 0-6-0 types I have to build for myself. Not purchasing what is to some extent suitable, is no way to convince a supplier that a market opportunity exists.

[Caledonian]

Ah, but there is a difference between suitable and desireable. If I was content to buy a K3, where's the incentive to tool up a J36?

[Guest Max Stafford]

Or is it just a case of 'put up or shut up', taking what we're given... ?

 

Dave.

[Western Scottish]

A very good reply from Dennis Lovett. I've read it a few times now and still pick up different vibes from it.As someone else has said it is extremely informative and polite but ultimately what he is saying is that without further support a Scottish model is not even on the shortlist.

 

Part of the problem now is that we have actually given this issue quite a bit of publicity. In a way this may put Bachmann off if they think Hornby are interested and vice versa. For that reason I would suggest the most suitable "clearing house" is one of the preserved railway societies ie SRPS or the Speyside line. They would surely know if someone had measured up one of their locos and advise accordingly.

 

Dennis also alludes to a commission by referring to NRM Deltic and City of Truro, also mentioning AMRSS who did commission a First Scotrail 158 sometime ago. That wasn't exactly a success , ironically because it was oversubscribed and there were a lot of disappointed people. The AMRSS is also not a sales organisation and other than Model Rail Scotland really doesn't have an outlet for the sale of the locos. It is possible that they could comine with Scottish model shops, who do have sales channels. However I do feel that such a commission would represent such a financial outlay that it may be beyond these shops even if they shared the cost.

 

So where does it take us? I feel the only way forward is to lobby one of the big organisations to commission a loco. This would be either SRPS (either 439 or J36)or Strathspey line (Caley 812). We need to convince these organisations that such a venture would add to their funds and be beneficial all round. After all the NRM are presumably earned enough from Deltic that they commissioned City of Truro.They see these commissions as fund raising for their main activities. Why would this not work for a Scottish organisation as well?Is anyone a member of these organisations? Maybe its them we should be canvassing instead of the manufacturers.I genuinely believe there is an opportunity for someone to make money here. Of course how much would need to be thrashed out between commissioning body and Bachmann, but again if its worthwhile for the NRM.......

 

One thing that I think Bachmann has overlooked ,is the attractiveness of these models in their own right which makes them much more saleable /desireable than something like the K3. If you didn't need one would you really go out and buy a K3? However I'll bet a lot of people who didn't need an M7 or T9 or , closer to home , the recently announced Midland 3F and S&D 7F did go out and buy or will buy a loco for their collection simply because its attractive and something out of the ordinary. The three prime contenders from the poll surely have that "X" factor.

 

Hope this helps. As well as wanting these models this is a fascinating insight as to how model companies work .Thanks to Hornby , but particularly Bachmann for their detailed response.

[60B]

If the strathspey is approached, Bachmann will probably be more open in some ways as they are a Bachmann dealer thus have the sales channel required. Would it be prudent to fire off a letter to one of the boards (company or association)?

[Hammer]

Stathspey (as far as I know) are in the final push for funding for the extension line, so this might be something they'd be willing to try to raise funds for it. Equally, they might consider it too risky just now.

 

Worth a try anyway.

[Bob Reid]

I personally think the best approach would be to take the entire content of the letter from Bachmann as the template for all that needs to be addressed for moving this "project" (for want of a better word) on, irrespective of whose going to front and/or produce them. Only picking out one possibility (which is only implied in the letter) of approaching one of the Scottish based societies, preservation or otherwise, is unlikely, in the present climate to produce a thanks, but no thanks response at this early stage.

 

The costs and risk would not be inconsiderable, and would represent a considerable exposure for them without any form of guaranteed return or commercial evaluation. No, we (collectively) have to do the donkey work ourselves as has been suggested long before we get to the stage of presenting the facts to the manufacturers or for that matter the preservation societies, or any third party "sponsor" when basically, asking them for a loan of their cash.

 

How and who moves this forward is the first clear decision that needs to be made. Everyone whose interested can do their bit however there needs to be more joined up thinking on setting out the way ahead - and re-visiting wether buying a K3 will promote potential sales for a 439 or J36 class isn't it. We've done all that navel gazing and we are well past it - where it should be.

 

So whose going to stand up and volunteer to co-ordinate all this. (Stuart) you certainly seem to be the centre of it at the moment however are you happy to carry on as the focus and contact point for all this work? I'm happy to provide as much assistance as I can should you need it, however others may well be interested to help out, beyond voices of support.

 

What say anyone else?

[Russ (mines a pint)]

In reply to Bob, even if everyone who has contributed to this thread was to buy the loco, then that would still not be enough.

 

- there are a number of further problems beyond the loco.

 

If you are not going to kit build the 0-4-4 tank you are probably not going to kitbuild the non-corridor stock that goes with it?

- or the buildings which it operated past.

 

I wonder if further promotion of the pre-group types also depends on other items to complement them rather than just looking at a 'loco'. There is potential here surely as the ScR diesel models and layouts have become relatively prolific, even amongst scratchbuilders of structures.

 

If the 439 is the way to go as the poll suggests is it time to look at a 'train pack' with 2 non corridor coaches? - this would be a higher initial start up - but might have more selling appeal- what RTR modellers (apart from loco collectors) would like to buy a 'passenger tank' which had no carriages, ok they did sometimes run with 'subs' but that is a pretty outdated model in the context we are looking for the engine?